The future of farming: The value of ecosystem services in conventional and organic arable land. An experimental approach

In the current work, a novel, experimental ‘bottom-up’ approach is used to quantify the economic value of ecosystem services (ES) associated with highly modified arable landscapes in Canterbury, New Zealand. First, the role of land management practices in the maintenance and enhancement of ES in agricultural land was investigated by quantifying the economic value of ES at the field level under organic and conventional arable systems. This quantification was based on an experimental approach in contrast with earlier value transfer methods. Total economic value of ES in organic fields ranged from US $1610 to US $19,420 ha^− 1 yr^− 1 and that of conventional fields from US $1270 to US $14,570 ha^− 1 yr^− 1. The non-market value of ES in organic fields ranged from US $460 to US $5240 ha^− 1 yr^− 1. The range of non-market values of ES in conventional fields was US $50 — 1240 ha^− 1 yr^− 1. There were significant differences between organic and conventional fields for the economic values of some ES. Next, this economic information was used to extrapolate and to calculate the total and non-market value of ES in Canterbury arable land. The total annual economic and non-market values of ES for the conventional arable area in Canterbury (125,000 ha) were US $332 million and US $71 million, respectively. If half the arable area under conventional farming shifted to organic practices, the total economic value of ES would be US $192 million and US $166 million annually for organic and conventional arable area, respectively. In this case, the non-market value of ES for the organic area was US $65 million and that of conventional area was US $35 million annually. This study demonstrated that arable farming provides a range of ES which can be measured using field experiments based on ecological principles by incorporating a ‘bottom-up’ approach. The work also showed that conventional New Zealand arable farming practices can severely reduce the financial contribution of some of these services in agriculture whereas organic agricultural practices enhance their economic value.     

To settle or protect? A global analysis of net primary production in parks and urban areas

We test—at the global scale—the hypothesis that human beings tend to build settlements in areas of high biological productivity, and protect (as parks) areas of low productivity. Furthermore, we propose an alternative measure of the extent and effectiveness of the global protected areas network based on potential net primary production (NPP₀). The average NPP₀ in urban areas and parks is calculated and compared to the average NPP₀ of the geopolitical regions and biomes containing these areas. Additionally, human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) in parks is used as an indicator of the effectiveness of these protected areas. We find that in almost all regions of the world, humans have chosen to settle in the most productive areas. At the global scale, urban areas have considerably higher NPP₀ (592 g Cm^− 2 yr^− 1) than the global average (494 g Cm^− 2 yr^− 1), while parks have roughly average NPP₀ (490 g Cm^− 2 yr^− 1). Parks with an IUCN category of I-VI account for 9.5% of the planet's terrestrial NPP₀, compared to 9.6% of its terrestrial area. Although protected area and protected NPP₀ are nearly equal, this equivalence is diminished by HANPP within parks. Globally, the average HANPP in all protected areas is 14% of their NPP₀, and HANPP within parks increases as the park management category becomes less restrictive. Moreover, we find a positive correlation between HANPP in parks and the extent of urbanization in the surrounding region and biome. Area-based targets for conservation provide no information on either the quality of the areas we choose to protect, or the effectiveness of that protection. We conclude that NPP₀ and HANPP may provide an additional, useful tool for assessing the extent and effectiveness of the global protected areas network.     

Ecosystem services and dis-services to agriculture

Agricultural ecosystems are actively managed by humans to optimize the provision of food, fiber, and fuel. These ecosystem services from agriculture, classified as provisioning services by the recent Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, depend in turn upon a web of supporting and regulating services as inputs to production (e.g., soil fertility and pollination). Agriculture also receives ecosystem dis-services that reduce productivity or increase production costs (e.g., herbivory and competition for water and nutrients by undesired species). The flows of these services and dis-services directly depend on how agricultural ecosystems are managed and upon the diversity, composition, and functioning of remaining natural ecosystems in the landscape. Managing agricultural landscapes to provide sufficient supporting and regulating ecosystem services and fewer dis-services will require research that is policy-relevant, multidisciplinary and collaborative. This paper focuses on how ecosystem services contribute to agricultural productivity and how ecosystem dis-services detract from it. We first describe the major services and dis-services as well as their key mediators. We then explore the importance of scale and economic externalities for the management of ecosystem service provision to agriculture. Finally, we discuss outstanding issues in regard to improving the management of ecosystem services and dis-services to agriculture.     

Integrating environmental and economic performance to assess modern silvoarable agroforestry in Europe

The environmental and economic performance of silvoarable agroforestry in Europe is highly variable. Multi-criteria analysis, using the PROMETHEE outranking approach, was used to evaluate the integrated performance of silvoarable agroforestry on hypothetical farms in nineteen landscape test sites in Spain, France, and The Netherlands. The silvoarable scenarios allocated a proportion of the hypothetical farms (10 or 50%) to silvoarable agroforestry at two different tree densities (50 or 113 trees ha^− 1) on two different qualities of land (best or worst quality land). The status quo (conventional arable farming) was also assessed for comparison. The criteria used in the evaluation (soil erosion, nitrogen leaching, carbon sequestration, landscape biodiversity, and infinite net present value) were assessed at each landscape test site; infinite net present value was assessed under six levels of government support. In France, the analysis showed, assuming equal weighting between environmental and economic performance, that silvoarable agroforestry was preferable to conventional arable farming. The best results were observed when agroforestry was implemented on 50% of the highest quality land on the farm; the effect of tree density (50-113 trees ha^− 1) was small. By contrast, in Spain and The Netherlands, the consistently greater profitability of conventional arable agriculture relative to the agroforestry alternatives made overall performance of agroforestry systems dependent on the proportion of the farm planted, and the tree density and land quality used.     

The projected costs and benefits of water diversion from and to the Sultan Marshes (Turkey)

The Sultan Marshes in the Develi Basin, Anatolia, one of twelve internationally important wetlands of Turkey, have been severely affected by the construction of an irrigation project in 1988. Intensive use of surface and ground water in irrigation has caused more than a 1 m decline in water levels and has affected the wetlands' ecological characteristics. Previous studies indicate that Sultan Marshes will need more water to restore viable ecological conditions. In this study, we analyze how economic benefits from agriculture and wetlands would be affected if moderate amounts of water were diverted from agriculture back to wetlands in the Develi Basin. By estimating total and marginal costs and benefits associated with water diversions, we determined the optimum or economically-efficient amount of water diversion. When only direct-use values of the wetland (animal grazing, plant harvesting, and ecotourism) were included in the analysis, the optimum amount of water diversion to the wetlands was found to be 5.2 million m³ year^− 1 (165 L sec^− 1), which compares to about 62 million m³ year^− 1 (1,957 L sec^− 1) used in irrigation. When wastewater treatment benefits (an indirect-use value) were added, the optimum amount rose to 7 million m³ year^− 1. Overall, the analysis showed that water diversion from agriculture to the Sultan Marshes is economically preferable.     

Economic implications of maintaining rangeland ecosystem health in a semi-arid savanna

A simulation model was used to determine the ecological and economic consequences of managing stocking rate on semi-arid savanna rangeland continuously stocked with livestock to achieve the alternate management goals: (1) maintaining current range condition, (2) maximizing profit, or (3) improving range condition over a 30-year time frame. We developed values for end of the year herbaceous standing crop and utilization required to attain these management goals for rangeland in poor to excellent condition. Based on extensive field research conducted in this region over 5 decades, range condition in this model is programmed to decline in response to three factors: excessive grazing pressure, below average precipitation, and an increase in woody plants. Earning capacity is four times higher for range in excellent condition than that in poor condition. For all initial range condition (RC) values, simulated stocking rates that maintained RC resulted in simulated mean weaning weights 93-94% of maximum. Maximum short-term and long-term profit is attained at higher stocking rates than would maintain long-term range condition and at much higher levels than would increase range condition levels. When stocked for maximum profit, individual animal performance was 90% of maximum. The model predicts that low stocking rates allow range condition to improve. At these recovery stocking rates, total 30-year profits were found to be 78%-87% of the stocking rates that would maintain range condition, and only 67%-75% of stocking rates that would maximize profit. Predictions of the end of year standing crop to maintain range condition were in broad agreement with the 1000 kg ha^− 1 advised for this region. To improve range condition, the model predicts that an end of year standing crop of 1500-2000 kg ha^− 1 is required, compared to the generally advised level of 1200-1500 kg ha^− 1. The predicted end of year forage standing crops for the maximum profit goal are well below the advised 800 kg ha^− 1 threshold required to prevent degradation for all of the initial range conditions that were simulated. To ensure maintenance of range in excellent condition, our results concur with the advised utilization levels of 20-25%. However, for range in poorer than excellent condition, the model predicted much lower utilization levels were needed to maintain or improve range condition.     

Valuing ecosystem goods and services: a new approach using a surrogate market and the combination of a multiple criteria analysis and a Delphi panel to assign weights to the attributes

A new approach to valuing ecosystem goods and services (EGS) is described which incorporates components of the economic theory of value, the theory of valuation (USappraisal), a multi-model multiple criteria analysis (MCA) of ecosystem attributes, and a Delphi panel of experts to assign weights to the attributes. The total value of ecosystem goods and services in the various tenure categories in the Wet Tropics World Heritage Area (WTWHA) in Australia was found to be in the range AUD$188 to $211 million year⁻¹, or AUD$210 to 236 ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ across tenures, as at 30 June 2002. Application of the weightings assigned by the Delphi panelists and assessment of the ecological integrity of the various tenure categories resulted in values being derived for individual ecosystem services in the World Heritage Area. Biodiversity and refugia were the two attributes ranked most highly at AUD$18.6 to $20.9 million year⁻¹ and AUD$16.6 to $18.2 million year⁻¹, respectively.     

A Structure Decomposition Analysis of China’s Production-Source CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> Emission: 1992–2002

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the relative impacts of various factors on CO₂ emissions from production of goods and services in China during two consecutive periods of 1992–1997 and 1997–2002. Results show that, on the positive side, level of final demand for goods and services was the main reason for the increase of production-source CO₂ emission, while structure of net export has similar positive effect during the first period of 1992–1997. On the negative side, technology factors remains as the main factors reducing emissions. The level of net export played some role in the first period, but the effects were seen in the second period from energy intensity, fuel mix and input mix. The results suggest that economic structure be focused as an important factor for CO₂ emission reduction, with construction and transport as two key industries to lower carbon emission.     

Adoption of digital repositories for CO2 emissions reduction: the case of Korea

This study aims to estimate the potential economic benefits, energy and CO₂ emissions reductions when using trusted third-party digital repository (TTPR) services in one individual bank, and within the banking industry in Korea. First, the cost, benefit and net benefit of using TTPR services in the banking industry are estimated. Second, the net induced output effect is estimated. Third, based on an environmentally extended input–output analysis, CO₂ emissions reduction was estimated as 1924.32 tons in 2009 and the energy consumption reduction as 640.70 TOE. Fourth, the total economic benefit, which is the sum of the net induced output effect and economic value of CO₂ emissions reductions, is approximately $11.04 million. The findings demonstrate that energy consumption and CO₂ emissions reductions are meaningful enough to result in significant economic benefits. Therefore, the Korean government should promote the use of TTPR services in the entire industry.     

A GIS-based approach for mapping direct use value of ecosystem services at a county scale: Management implications

A GIS-based approach was designed to spatially estimate direct use value of ecosystem services and to map results for a case study at county scale. The approach highlights the use of GIS to collect data, perform spatial analysis, and map economic values of ecosystem services. Three key steps of spatial valuation for agricultural products, forest products, and tourism services were illustrated in the GIS-based technical framework. We applied this approach to the Tiantai County (1423.8 km²) in Zhejiang province of southeast China. Selected components of natural products and tourism services in the case area were mapped as data layers in GIS, with each layer containing monetary values for every 25 m cell. The total direct use value of ecosystem services was estimated in RMB to be approximately 538 million Yuan in 2005 (Chinese currency, 8.2 Yuan = US$1), of which agricultural products, forest products and tourism services accounted for 65%, 30% and 5%, respectively. The critical areas for management purpose were identified depending on the heterogeneity of direct use services learned from the case study. The spatially explicit measures provide a mechanism for incorporating spatial context into ecosystem services evaluation. Based on the present GIS-based approach and case study, the suggestions and implications for local resources protection and eco-environmental management were extensively discussed. The work was expected to highlight research avenues to advance the ecosystem services framework as an operational basis for regional ecosystem-based management.     

Reducing climate change impacts on agriculture: Global and regional effects of mitigation, 2000–2080

What are the implications for agriculture of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions? By when and by how much are impacts reduced? Where does it matter most? We investigated these questions within the new A2 emission scenario, recently developed at the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis with revised population and gross domestic product projections. Coupling an agro-ecological model to a global food trade model, two distinct sets of climate simulations were analyzed: 1) A non-mitigated scenario, with atmospheric CO₂ concentrations over 800 ppm by 2100; and 2) A mitigation scenario, with CO₂ concentrations stabilized at 550 ppm by 2100. Impacts of climate change on crop yield were evaluated for the period 1990–2080, then used as input for economic analyses. Key trends were computed over the 21st century for food demand, production and trade, focusing on potential monetary (aggregate value added) and human (risk of hunger) impacts. The results from this study suggested that mitigation could positively impact agriculture. With mitigation, global costs of climate change, though relatively small in absolute amounts, were reduced by 75–100%; and the number of additional people at risk of malnutrition was reduced by 80–95%. Significant geographic and temporal differences were found. Regional effects often diverged from global net results, with some regions worse off under mitigation compared to the unmitigated case.     

Estimation of forest values using choice modeling: An application to Spanish forests

This paper presents a Choice Modeling application of forest goods and services valuation for an afforestation program in the Northeast of Spain. The results from a random parameter logit model reveal that, on average, individuals would annually pay an average of 11.79 euros for the forests to sequester 68,000 tones of CO₂, 0.12 euros for delaying the loss of land productivity for ten years, and 6.33 euros from picnic users for being allowed to picnic in the new forests. On the other hand, individuals would experience a loss in welfare equivalent to − 9.67 euros if four-wheel driving is allowed in the new forests. Finally, being allowed to pick mushrooms in the new forests is valued at an average of 12.82 euros by those who live in rural areas.     

Sustainability and the value of the ‘regulating’ services: Wetlands and water quality in Lake Victoria

The regulating services provided by ecosystems are amongst the most important for the sustainability of resource use, and yet they are also amongst the least understood. This paper considers one set of regulating mechanisms - the buffering functions of wetlands - and considers the information needed to identify both the value of the services offered by wetlands, and their substitutes. Using data from a catchment discharging water and nutrients to the Kenyan segment of Lake Victoria, the Yala catchment, the paper models the interactions between agriculture and fisheries as mediated by wetlands at the lake margin. More particularly, it estimates the value of the forgone nutrient retention function involved in the conversion of the wetland to agriculture, and the scope for providing the same services through land use change elsewhere in the catchment. The total cost of the payments that would compensate farmers for on-farm nutrient buffering services is 3.86 M US$ year^− 1, or 35% of the total gains from wetland conversion to crop production. This finding contributes to an understanding of both the value of regulating services and how they might most effectively be delivered in alternative ways.     

Modelling risk premia in CO2 allowances spot and futures prices

This article analyzes the modelling of risk premia in CO₂ allowances spot and futures prices, valid for compliance under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). Similarly to electricity markets, a salient characteristic of CO₂ allowances is that the theory of storage does not hold, as CO₂ allowances only exist on the balance sheets of companies regulated by the scheme. The main result features positive time-varying risk premia in CO₂ spot and futures prices, which are strictly higher for post-2012 contracts (€6–9/ton of CO₂) than for Phase II contracts (€0–6/ton of CO₂). Contrary to Benth et al.'s (2008) for electricity markets, a positive relationship between risk premia and time-to-maturity is found in the EU ETS. As for relative differences between CO₂ futures and spot prices, CO₂ futures traded between + 1% (December 2008 contract) and + 33% (December 2014 contract) above spot prices during February 2008–April 2009. Contrary to Bessembinder and Lemmon (2002) for the electricity market, a positive relationship between risk premia and the variance/skewness of CO₂ spot prices is found. The futures-spot bias to the EU ETS explains around 1–6% of the variance of CO₂ futures premia.     

Taxation of multiple greenhouse gases and the effects on income distribution: A case study of the Netherlands

Current economic instruments aimed at climate change mitigation focus on CO₂ emissions only, but the Kyoto Protocol refers to other greenhouse gases (GHG) as well as CO₂. These are CH₄, N₂O, HFCs, PFCs and SF₆. Taxation of multiple greenhouse gases improves the cost-effectiveness of climate change mitigation. It is not yet clear, however, what the effect is of multigas taxation on the distribution of the tax burden across income groups. This paper examines and compares distributional effects of a CO₂ tax and a comprehensive tax that covers all six GHG of the Kyoto Protocol. The study concentrates on the Netherlands in the year 2000. We established tax rates on the basis of marginal abatement cost curves and the Dutch policy target. The distributional effects have been determined by means of environmentally extended input−output analysis and data on consumer expenditures. Our results show that taxation of multiple GHG improves not only the cost-effectiveness of climate change mitigation, but also distributes the tax burden more equally across income groups as compared to a CO₂ tax. These findings are relevant for the debate on the role of non-CO₂ GHG in climate change mitigation.     

Quantification of interdependencies between economic systems and ecosystem services: An input-output model applied to the Seine estuary

The aim of this paper is to assess the possible contribution of an input-output model towards two of the basic principles of the sustainability strategy of integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) and Post-Normal Science. According to these principles, decision-support tools should offer a holistic perspective and handle high uncertainty. The difficulties in reaching sustainability are due partly to the prevailing use of “narrow-system-boundary” tools that are non-holistic. Consequently, they fail to capture important ecosystem services and ignore interdependencies between them. To comply with the basic principles, our method allows environmental assets to be evaluated in multiple units and integrates results from recent researches in natural sciences. Both enable coverage of interdependencies between ecosystem services. Thereby, we enlarge input-output modelling from the two conventional ecosystem services of sink and provisioning to the most vital ones: the supporting services. An application to the Seine estuary addresses the impacts of maritime transportation infrastructures on nursery habitats for commercial fish. The ecosystem services covered are life support and resource provisioning. Our results show that the restoration of a total of 73.7 km² of nursery areas over the period 2004-2015 would result in a stock of sole in 2015 that exceeds the “business as usual” scenario by 44.2% (uncertainty range: 35.9%-69.9%). In spite of high restoration costs, the negative macro-economic impact is very low. However, on the sector level, a trade-off results between nurseries and three economic sectors. The quantification of such trade-offs in our model is particularly useful to public participation in decision-making.     

Lifestyles, technology and CO2 emissions in China: A regional comparative analysis

With rapid economic development, higher income levels, urbanization and other socio-economic drivers, people's lifestyles in China have changed remarkably over the last 50 years. This paper uses the IPAT model (where I = Impact representing CO₂ emissions, P = Population, A = Affluence, and T = emission intensity) to analyze how these main drivers contributed to the growth of CO₂ emissions over this time period. Affluence or lifestyle change has been variously recognized as one of the key factors contributing to CO₂ emissions. Through comparative analysis of the development of five regions in China, we trace lifestyle changes since the foundation of the People's Republic of China (PRC) in 1949 until 2002. We find that household consumption across the five regions follows similar trajectories, driven by changes in income and the increasing availability of goods and services, although significant differences still exist between and within regions due to differential policies in China and different possibilities for social mobility. There are considerable differences between the southeast and northwest and between urban and rural areas. We also found that technological improvements have not been able to fully compensate for the increase of emissions due to population growth and increasing wealth, which is also in line with results from other studies. Finally, this paper emphasizes that developing countries such as China, which is home to 22% of the world population and a growing middle class, and which is on a fast track to modernization, need to ensure that people's lifestyles are changing towards more sustainable ways of living. China has been investing heavily in infrastructure and thus creating the emissions of tomorrow. Thus investing, for example, in public transport and low energy building today will help reduce emissions in the future and will support more sustainable lifestyles.     

Indigenous livelihoods, slash-and-burn agriculture, and carbon stocks in Eastern Panama

Improved crop–fallow systems in the humid tropics can simultaneously sequester atmospheric carbon emissions and contribute to sustainable livelihoods of rural populations. A study with an indigenous community in eastern Panama revealed a considerable biophysical potential for carbon offsets in small-scale slash-and-burn agriculture through longer fallow periods, improved fallow management, secondary forest development, and agricultural intensification. Based on soil and biomass carbon measurements, estimated annual sequestration rates amount to 0.3−3.7 t C ha^− 1 yr^− 1. Despite such potential, the economic benefits of initiatives aimed at sequestration of carbon in the community are likely to be rather unequally distributed within the community. Heterogeneity in livelihood strategies and uneven asset endowments among households – factors often overlooked in the ongoing carbon and sustainable development debate – are expected to strongly affect household participation. Indeed, only the better-endowed households that have also managed to diversify into more lucrative farm and non-farm activities are likely to be able to participate in and thus benefit from improved crop–fallow systems that capture carbon. Economic, ethical, institutional, and technical concerns need to be taken into account when designing community carbon management and investment plans.     

Decomposition of energy-related CO2 emission over 1991-2006 in China

This paper presents a decomposition analysis of energy-related CO₂ emission in China for the period 1991-2006 divided into three equal time intervals. The complete decomposition method developed by Sun is used to analyze the nature of the four factors: CO₂ intensity, energy intensity, structural changes and economic activity. The results show that economic activity has the largest positive effect in CO₂ emission changes in all the major economic sectors and China has achieved a considerable decrease in CO₂ emission mainly due to the improved energy intensity. However, the impact of CO₂ intensity and structural changes is relatively small. Structural changes only exhibit positive effect to the CO₂ mitigation in agricultural sector, and CO₂ intensity also contributes to the decrease of CO₂ emission in transportation sector. Moreover, a formula about CO₂ mitigation is presented in this paper, which shows that China has made a significant contribution to reducing global CO₂ emission.     

Economic valuation of gas regulation as a Service by rice-duck-fish complex ecosystem

Valuating the fimction of ecosystem services is crucial for accounting green GDP, making a conservation policy of ecological environment and the decision of regional development as well as sustainable development strategy. R ice-duck-fish symbiosis has been promoted in several developing countries as a way of increasing incomes for rice farmers, but investigations of its value have mainly focused on direct economic＇ benefits, such as food and raw material production. Few studies have been conducted on the estimation of indirect services provided by rice-duck-fish complex ecosystem. The gas regulation service and its economic values provided by rice-duck-fish complex ecosystem were studied in Wuhan, China. The major components of gas regulation are O2 emission and greenhouse gases （GHGs, CO2） regulation. The results show that O2 emission from different treatments （including rice-duck （RD）, rice-fish （RF）, rice-duck-fish （RDF） and rice （CK）） ranged from 26,370 kg/ha to 33,910 kg/ha per year. with an economic value of 10,050-12,920 yuan/ha per ）,ear （Chinese currency： 1 euro =10.2475 yuan, August 28, 2007）. The net GHGs exchange varied from 1,200 to 3,320 kg/ha per year; and its economic value ranged from 1,040 yuan/ha to 2,900 yuan/ha per year Consequently, the total economic value of gas regulation provided by symbiosis complex ecosystems ranged from 11,090 yuan/ha to 15,820 yuan/ha per year. and the maximum overall economic value of gas regulation was provided by RDF complex ecosystem. The work will be useful for further understanding of the functions of rice-duck-fish complex ecos.vstem services and supplying the theoretical references to agricultural policy.