欧元债券：最后的“解药”

尽管欧盟和欧元区国家的领导人,挖空心思试图缓解主权债务危机,但这一金融病魔依然死死折磨着欧洲经济。时至今日,不仅希腊等欧元区外围国家险象环生,而且诸如意大利等欧元区核心成员国也是警报不断。无奈之下,欧洲人急中生智,试图推出欧元债券以对欧债危机作一个了断。然而,由于很难得到欧洲国家的一致睦认同,加之缺少必要的制度和技术支...     

欧元区的危机是国际收支失衡危机

欧元区内的失衡,反映在欧洲第二代实时清算系统(TARGET2,即欧元体系的银行间支付系统)中,即各中央银行间的收支不平衡。截至2011年12月,北方欧元区国家的中央银行累计净头寸达到8000亿欧元,而南方欧元区国家则累计了相同规模的负头寸。早期有关欧洲货币联盟的文献指出,在货币联盟之内,各成员国之间的收支     

超越紧缩——探索欧洲主权债务危机的终结之道

2009年希腊债务危机拉开了欧洲主权债务危机的帷幕,并将全球金融市场置于危险的境地,至今仍无见底迹象且呈现扩散的趋势。欧洲主权债务危机爆发的根源在于欧元区成员国之间的竞争力失衡,欧元区政策框架存在制度性缺陷使得问题进一步加剧。欧元区领导人推出一整套危机永久解决机制,然而此方案并未触及欧元区深层次的问题,距离债务危机的永久解决还有很长的路要走。危机的最终解决已经超越了纯粹的经济学范畴,它将取决于各国的政治决心和魄力以及欧洲精神的复兴,反思欧洲现有的经济与社会发展模式,寻求经济增长的新路径。     

欧债危机的特殊性、解决方案与对中国的启示

欧债危机的特殊之处在于,成员国具有扩大财政赤字的内在动力;欧元区各国经济实力差异巨大;希腊不能通过主权债务货币化缓解危机;欧元区内部缺乏强有力的领导.解决方案有可能包括,欧元区内部通过协调援助解决;依靠IMF大规模援助;欧元大幅贬值;希腊等国退出欧元区.给我国的重大启示是,审慎建立亚洲共同货币区;适度的大规模刺激政策;设置金融危机预警机制.     

欧元区国家主权债务危机、欧元及欧盟经济

论文认为欧元区主权债务危机的基本性质属于南欧国家寅吃卯粮所导致的财政危机,但是由于欧元区在制度设置和运行机制上存在缺陷,使债务危机演变成欧元的信任危机。欧元区成员国和欧盟业已认识到欧洲货币联盟的不足,通过加强财政政策一体化来克服欧元区的内在矛盾似乎不可避免。欧元不会因为主权债务危机的冲击而垮台,但是欧洲经济将受到债务危机的拖累,增长前景不容乐观。     

欧洲经济需要再平衡

欧洲经济需要再平衡,因为触发此次欧债危机的两个原因都与此相关:第一,经常账户失衡在近些年来越来越严重;第二,政府和私人部门债务在欧元区某些国家大幅上升。因此,平衡欧洲经济才是危机的最终解决之道,而仅仅通过大量投入资金进行救助,无疑就像"通天塔"一样,建得再高,也无法到达天堂,反而会使得欧元区国家陷入经济和政治双重不利的局面。     

乌克兰危机与中东欧国家融入欧洲一体化进程的推进

在2022年乌克兰危机背景下,中东欧地区尚未加入欧盟、欧元区和申根区国家的欧洲一体化进程取得显著进展。该文回顾了乌克兰危机全面升级前后中东欧国家融入欧洲一体化进程的发展变化,从西巴尔干国家加入欧盟、中东欧地区欧盟成员国加入欧元区和申根区三个方面分析中东欧国家融入欧洲一体化进程取得突破性进展的原因,并对中东欧国家融入欧洲一体化进程的前景进行展望。     

责务危机凸显欧盟体制缺陷

由希腊债务危机引发的欧元区和欧盟债务危机,有愈演愈烈之势。在2010年5月上旬不到十天的时间内,欧盟成员先后通过两项救助计划,试图制止希腊危机蔓延：一项由欧元区国家通过,承诺了1100亿欧元救助基金;另一项由27个成员组成的欧盟通过,承诺了7500亿欧元的援助基金。前者仅针对希腊一个国家,后者则针对整个欧盟财政赤字超标的成员国,足见事态之严重。     

经济趋势——债务危机谁之过

今日来临的危机，是西方国家长期寅吃卯粮，债务不断积累的必然结果。．随着时间的推移，“治标不治本”的信心游戏将难以为继。美国国债泡沫破灭，欧元区成员国陆续退出，或许只是时间问题。     

欧元区央行间资金融通与国际收支失衡调整及危机应对

欧债危机爆发以来,由于私人资本流入急剧下降、银行间市场萎缩,希腊等国只能通过官方渠道弥补国际收支失衡,其中一个重要渠道是TARGET2。德央行与希腊等边缘经济体央行分别是TARGET2项下的债权方、债务方。这一渠道的资金融通,超过了欧盟和IMF对希腊等国的救助规模,对欧元区国际收支失衡调整和欧债危机应对,发挥了重要作用。今后一段时期,TARGET2失衡可能会继续扩大。在欧元区经济金融联系减弱、财政联盟和经济治理没有实质进展情况下,未来顺差国持续提供融资的动力可能减弱,TARGET2下央行间大额资金融通将难以为继,其对欧元区经济金融稳定的影响值得关注。     

Sustainability and comovement of government debt in EMU Countries: A panel data analysis

We investigate the sustainability of fiscal policy in a set of 19 European Monetary Union (EMU) countries over the period 1970–2016. Panel unit root tests in the presence of cross-section dependence show that the government debt series is stationary, indicating that the solvency condition would be satisfied for these countries. This confirms the effectiveness of the austerity measures implemented by these member states. Moreover, an unobserved common factor drives the comovement of government debt in the Eurozone.     

Analysis of Brexit and its policy lessons for Asian integration

Galvanised by the devastation of the Second World War, European countries achieved a historically unprecedented and unparalleled level of regional economic integration in the post-war period. Intensive cooperation between the two biggest powers of continental Western Europe, France and Germany, lay at the core of Europe's seemingly relentless momentum towards integration, crystallised by the European Union (EU). The Franco-German alliance also provided strong eadership and sense of direction for the EU, which gained further traction with the admission of Central and Eastern European states after the fall of communism and the establishment of a monetary union among many of its members. However, more recently, the European integration process no longer seems unstoppable or inevitable. Most shockingly, the United Kingdom, a core EU member and the EU's third largest economy, has opted to leave the union, triggering the ‘Brexit’ process. Nor is Brexit the only sign of growing fractures within the EU. The current standoff between the EU and Italy over Italy's unwillingness to rein in its fiscal deficit is just one additional example of the loss of momentum. The central objective of the paper is to examine EU's past successes and current problems from the perspective of Asian countries, in particular ASEAN+3 countries that have achieved some measure of integration, although well below that of the EU. Both past successes and current problems hold valuable lessons for ASEAN+3 countries as they chart their own course towards regional integration. Given that the level of integration among ASEAN+3 is much lower than that of the EU, it would be unwise to draw lessons, positive or negative, without the proper context. Nevertheless, the European experience can provide valuable insights for Asia's integration process.     

从欧美针对中国纺织品实行“特保”看中国纺织行业的发展

自今年年初取消纺织品配额后,中国纺织品第一季度出口到某些国家和地区的出口量大幅增加,这引起了美欧等国的恐慌,美国于今年5月宣布对中国出口到美国的7类纺织品设限,欧盟也决定对由中国进口的T恤和麻纱启动“紧急特保”程序,这些举动再一次对中国的纺织业提出了挑战,面对后     

International responses to homelessness: Lessons for the City of Tshwane

ABSTRACT

Reports of increases in the numbers of homeless people are pouring in from all over the world yet many governments still do not consider homelessness worthy of a policy response in its own right and relegate it to the periphery of either housing or social (welfare) policy arenas and interventions. In the introductory sections of this article, reference is made to the current extent of homelessness in the world and the rise to prominence of a rights-based approach to homelessness. This is followed by a brief overview of responses to homelessness in Australia, the USA and some European countries. A few of the key components of these responses and their relevance for homelessness policies in South Africa and the City of Tshwane are identified.     

'Don't owe,won't pay!': A critical analysis of the Jubilee SA position on South African government debt

Jubilee 2000 (SA) supports the cancellation of South African national government (and other) debt on the grounds that it is odious debt from the apartheid years. The organisation has called for foreign creditors to cancel the debt voluntarily and has threatened to call for debt repudiation if such cancellation is not forthcoming. However, unlike voluntary debt cancellation, debt repudiation would probably have serious consequences for investment and growth. Furthermore, as most government debt has accumulated after the end of apartheid, and as most is domestic and marketable, the moral argument for repudiation is problematic. Jubilee 2000 (SA) is also calling for the government pension scheme (which owns a large proportion of the domestic government debt) to be restructured. Contributions to the pension fund may be excessive (as argued by Jubilee 2000), but the case is not clear. South Africa should publish a dual set of accounts in line with how other countries report their liabilities so as not to overstate the deficit in the eyes of investors.     

Effects of the first world war on the engineering industries of Estonia and Finland

Abstract

At the turn of the last century, international political tension intensified and the Great Powers accelerated their armament efforts. Conflicts in the Balkans threatened, as early as in 1908, to lead the two blocs of European countries into a great war for which especially Russia would have been very poorly prepared. The economic crisis of the early 1900s had increased the technological backwardness of the eastern Empire's heavy industry and armament compared with those of the other Great Powers. Partly for this reason the Russian government considered it best to stay outside the Balkan conflict at this point and to concentrate on modernising its army's weaponry and speeding up the building of strategic railways and harbours in the western parts of the Empire. In 1908 the Imperial government acquired a domestic loan of 200 million rubles, followed by a foreign loan of 525 million rubles, to finance these armament efforts.     

Default premia on European government debt

Default Premia on European Government Debt. — This paper addresses the question of the existence and size of a risk premium in the Eurobond market. We measure the yield difference between German government bonds and bonds issued in Deutsche Mark by several European countries. The results are regressed against macroeconomic variables supposed to be determinants of the risk of default on government debt. Our yield differences are smaller than those found between US states. However, some of our macroeconomic variables seem to be good predictors of yield differentials. A conclusion is that yield differentials partially are related to risks perceived by market participants.     

The german stability program: A quantitative assessment

In the Maastricht Treaty and the European Stability and Growth Pact, it was recognized that high public deficits and debt levels would endanger the success of the European Economic and Monetary Union. In its stability program, updated in December 2001, the German government published its objective to achieve a balanced general budget in the year 2004. The budget of the central government should be balanced in 2006 [Bundesfinanzministerium, 2001]. This paper analyzes the effects of strict budget consolidation policies on important macroeconomic variables like inflation, unemployment and GDP growth. It is shown that a balanced budget as early as 2004 would necessitate high public consumption and investment. These should be financed by higher indirect taxes, whereas social security contribution rates should be reduced to bring unemployment down.     

Is there a euro effect in the drivers of US FDI? New evidence using Bayesian model averaging techniques

In this paper the authors analyze the potential determinants of US outward FDI stock with a particular focus on the euro effect during the period 1985–2017. To this aim, they consider a large set of candidate variables suggested both by theory and previous empirical analysis. They select the covariates using Bayesian model averaging, a data-driven methodology. Their sample includes a total of 56 host countries, that represent around the 70% of US outward FDI stock. They study the role of the euro on American FDI both in Europe and the rest of the world. In Europe, they consider various country groups: the European Union (EU), the euro area (EA), as well as core and periphery within this last group. They conclude that many variables studied by previous FDI literature cannot be considered robust determinants. Moreover, US OFDI is explained by both horizontal and vertical motives. However, HFDI strategies predominate in EA core countries, whereas VFDI prevails in the periphery. As for the euro effect, the common currency seems to have played an important role encouraging US FDI, being a crucial element in the convergence of EA periphery to its core. In addition, the results indicate that the adoption of the euro has favoured VFDI to the detriment of HFDI.

     

Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Euro Zone

The European Central Bank adopted a policy of quantitative easing early in 2015, long after the US and UK, and after implementing a succession of measures to increase liquidity in the Euro zone financial markets, none of which proved sufficient eventually. The paper draws out lessons for the Euro zone from US and UK experience. Numerous event studies have been undertaken to uncover the effects of QE on yields on and prices of financial assets. Estimated effects on long-term government bond yields are then converted into the size of the cut in the policy rate that would normally have been needed to produce them. From these implicit cuts in policy rates, estimates of the effect on GDP and inflation are generated. Euro zone QE appears to have had a much smaller effect on bond yields for the core members states than did QE in the US or UK. Therefore its effects on output and inflation are likely to be proportionately smaller. Its effects on long-term government bond yields in periphery members are greater. QE is compressing interest differential among Euro zone member states. The dangers of QE to which various commentators draw attention, that it creates a danger of inflation in the future, that it creates asset price bubbles, that it allows zombie firms and banks to survive, slowing down the process of adjustment, seem remote. Meanwhile it makes a useful contribution to cutting the costs of debt service and allowing member states more fiscal room for maneouvre.