Managing international debt

The disappointing response to the Mexican debt-swap initiative has shown that financial innovations cannot be relied on solely to reduce the debt burden to levels that reestablish the creditworthiness of major debtors. The following article examines the conventional approach to solving the debt problem as well as a number of new proposals.     

对我国外债管理的分析及对策建议

从20世纪80年代拉丁美洲的债务危机,到1998年的亚洲金融风暴,可以看到在面对危机时,一个国家管理外债的水平和控制风险的能力,这在一定程度上决定了这个国家是否能顺利渡过困境。我国政府目前面对纷繁复杂的国际经济形势,大力加强国家外债管理,对我国经济建设将起着至关重要的作用。本文初步探讨了我国外债的现状,对外债管理做了一些粗浅的分析研究,目的在于政府合理利用外债,最大限度地控制风险,促进经济健康发展。     

浅谈“美国国债困境”对我国的影响

美国国债危机引发世界恐慌,中国作为美国国债最大的持有者,如何能够在风云变幻的国际资本运作中独善其身,是目前最为国民关注的问题。中美经济相互依赖是多年形成的格局,美国国债危机也严重干扰了中国的金融秩序。中国应从美国国债危机中吸取教训,完善外汇储备管理机制,鼓励利用外汇储备,加强对投机资本的监管,减少对他国经济的依赖性,尽最大可能减少美国国债危机带来的冲击。     

Crisis costs and debtor discipline: the efficacy of public policy in sovereign debt crises

Recent debate on the reform of the international financial architecture has highlighted the potentially important role of the official sector in crisis management. We examine how such public intervention in sovereign debt crises affects efficiency, ex ante and ex post. Our results shed light on the scale of capital inflows and the implications for debtor country output of such a regime. The efficacy of measures such as officially sanctioned stays on creditor litigation depend critically on the quality of public sector surveillance and the size of the costs of sovereign debt crises.     

External borrowing,capital formation and growth in developing countries

Since the summer of 1982 the banking community has been faced with an international debt crisis of unprecedented dimensions. The debt rescheduling agreements that have been negotiated since then involve sums totalling no less than $ 100 billion. However, they give the international financial system no more than a breathing-space. The following two articles deal with different aspects of this crisis. Rainer Erbe examines the question as to what growth effects were associated with external borrowing. Can a lack of growth effects be made responsible for the crisis or were other factors more important? This is followed by an article by Anton Konrad who discusses the proposals which have been made for long-term crisis management. What are their chances of success?     

Financial markets at the crossroads: Fears of a great crash

Not so long ago the international financial markets were being acclaimed as the cure-all for debt crises and interest rate and exchange rate risks, but new developments are giving increasing cause for concern, as the Deutsche Bundesbank¹ noted recently. Pessimists are spreading a mood of disaster and are already predicting the collapse of the world financial system.² What is the basis for such fears? How serious is the danger of a crash?     

Trajectories of Small Business Financial Structure

A dynamic theory of the small firm is expounded, assuming entrepreneurs maximise business value over a finite time horizon. Predicted trajectories for key financial variables are seen to depend on whether debt or equity are cheaper. The predicted trajectories are compared with actual trajectories, using empirical evidence from three years of detailed primary source data on one hundred and fifty new business startups in Scotland. Evidence largely confirms predictions of the model, for the cheap equity case. For this case, as capital and sales rise steadily, debt is retired rapidly, except when interest rates on long-term debt are low. This finding is supported by explicit empirical trajectories of key financial variables.     

地方政府债务扩张与银行信贷风险

国际金融危机后实施的"金融救市"政策是导致地方政府债务迅速扩张的外部因素,地方政府债务的迅速扩张又反过来加剧了银行的信贷风险,为金融体系的不稳定性埋下隐患。实证研究发现,金融危机后实施的救市政策构成了商业银行"对政府债权"的显著差异与结构突变;商业银行"对政府债权"对银行的不良贷款率和存贷比显著正相关。     

商业银行贸易融资风险管理探讨

近2 0年间,随着我国国际贸易规模、数量和范围不断扩大,进出口商面临着资金短缺的困难,而商业银行贸易融资业务是解决进出口贸易资金融通问题的一个选择。与发达国家商业银行相比,国内银行在科技和管理水平、金融服务及经营方式等方面存在明显差距。本文运用规范性分析方法对国际贸易融资创新及风险进行了探讨,注重理论和实践的结合、微观和宏观分析的结合、比较分析,通过横向和纵向比较,总结国际贸易融资业务发展状况和趋势。     

Patterns of international capital raisings

This paper documents several new patterns associated with firms issuing stocks and bonds in foreign markets that motivate the need for and help guide the direction of future research. Three major patterns stand out. (1) A large and growing fraction of capital raisings, especially debt issuances, occurs in international markets, but a very small number of firms accounts for the bulk of international capital raisings, highlighting the cross-firm heterogeneity in financial globalization. (2) Changes in firm performance following equity and debt issuances in international markets are qualitatively similar to those following domestic issuances, suggesting that capital raisings abroad are not intrinsically different from those in domestic markets. (3) Firms continue to issue securities both abroad and at home after accessing international markets, suggesting that international and domestic markets are complements, not substitutes. Existing theories do not fully account for these patterns.     

对短期负债与国际金融危机关系的重新审视--基于双重代理的分析

按照金融危机理论，短期负债是造成国际金融危机的重要原因，为了防止金融危机的爆发，应该通过对短期资本流入征税等措施来限制甚至禁止短期外债。但基于双重代理的分析，短期负债会使政府采取对投资者更为有利的政策，这在确保贷款方回收贷款的同时，也提高了借款企业以及借款国的福利水平。因此，危机的原因应归结为借款方对借款能力的耗竭，而不是短期负债。     

后金融危机时代美欧金融发展形势及启示

后金融危机时代,美国的金融霸权未被金融危机动摇,突出表现在美国仍然掌控货币霸权、金融机构霸权、国际金融话语霸权等,且美国继续滥用其金融霸权地位。而欧洲则深陷欧债危机,其主要原因包括欧洲国家自身经济失调、欧元区内部的不平等地位和国际评级机构的不公正评级等。我国应根据美欧金融形势和经验教训,坚持稳中求进,深入实施扩大内需,转变经济结构,把握发展实体经济这一坚实基础,稳健发展虚拟经济,合理制定与调整我国金融业发展战略,加强我国金融业实力和地位,注意对国内金融创新的监督,构建我国金融业全面风险管理体系。     

Can the international debt strategy use the concept of corporate compositions?

So far, it has been possible to stave off really serious consequences for the world economy and the international financial system since the developing-country debt crisis started in 1982. Yet for many developing countries, external debt problems and the underlying economic crisis are as pressing as ever. The following article identifies five central elements of a general orientation framework for dealing with the debt crisis which has been inspired by the basic idea of the concept of corporate compositions found in commercial law.     

The external debt situation of the least developed countries

While the external debt of the least developed countries (LLDCs) is no threat to the international financial system, its adverse impact on the development efforts of many of these countries is severe. The following article examines their debt and economic situation and reviews major elements of the current international debt strategy with regard to their adequacy in bringing the LLDCs back to sustainable debt burdens and growth. The article was written while the author was working at the OECD. The views in the article are those of the author and do not reflect those of the World Bank or its affiliates or of the OECD.     

Financial Repression — Ein neues Umfeld für die Finanzm?rkte?

High levels of debt caused by the financial crisis are forcing countries to take measures to reduce debt. Financial repression is a debt reduction opportunity based on measures imposed on the financial markets by governments which manifests itself primarily in lower real interest rates. Financial repression is regarded as another characteristic of a “new normality” in the global economy with low potential growth rates and low interest rates, high levels of public debt as a result of the financial crisis. The article describes this phenomenon and attempts to evaluate its empirical relevance.     

Health Shocks,Out‐of‐Pocket Medical Expenses and Consumer Debt Among Middle‐Aged and Older Americans

We examine two important issues related to health and financial burden in middle‐aged and older Americans: (1) whether or not new health events affect a consumer's unsecured debt, and (2) to what extent the associated out‐of‐pocket medical expenses (OOP) contribute to unsecured debt. We use six biennial waves (1998, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006 and 2008) from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). We estimated fixed effects models and conducted mediation analyses. We find that new health events affect the accumulation of unsecured debt. Our estimates suggest that new health events increase unsecured debt by 6.3% ($230) to 9.3 % ($339); approximately 20% of the increase in unsecured consumer debt comes from OOP when experiencing new health events. New severe health events increase debt for the 50–64 age group, but do not increase it for the 65+ group.     

新形势下中小型外贸企业财务风险管理研究

随着人民币不断升值,汇率波动直接影响我国中小型外贸企业实际收汇,国内通货膨胀趋势明显,成本上升减少出口盈利,国际贸易保护主义抬头使中小型外贸企业因面临销售风险而遭受损失。宏观经济形势复杂,利率的波动增加了企业的筹资风险,国外进口商的信用缺失使中小型外贸企业坏账损失风险加大。中小型外贸企业应该采取加强出口结算方式的灵活性,利用金融衍生市场套期保值,多渠道、多方位拓展海外市场,提高风险意识,建立内部信用风险管理体系,拓展融资渠道,加强资金管理,合理运用出口信用保险,减少坏账损失等方法减少财务风险。     

Financial Attitudes in Family Firms: The Moderating Role of Family Commitment

This study investigates how family commitment moderates whether and how financial knowledge, positive experience with debt suppliers, and economic goal orientation affect owner–managers' attitudes toward debt financing in family firms. Using a sample of 280 German family firms, we find significant relationships between both financial knowledge and positive experience with debt suppliers and owner–managers' financial attitudes toward debt. Our findings show that family commitment moderates these relationships such that high family commitment increases the impact of prior experience with debt suppliers, though the effect of economic goal orientation is lowered and reversed. Overall, we contribute to research on financial decision making, capital structure, and social capital in family firms.     

Nightmare on Kaiserstrasse

The overhang of debt (private and surging public) is perhaps the principal reason why recessions following financial crises are so deep and lasting. Frequently, a wave of international financial and banking crises is followed by a wave of sovereign defaults. This is the case of the Eurozone crisis today. How might a sovereign debt default of, say, Greece affect the Eurozone? The nightmare scenario is a complete unraveling of the euro. The euro can still be saved, but perhaps only with the weaker countries undergoing major restructuring of their sovereign debt.     

What do bond holdings reveal about international funds' preferences?

International bond funds are important institutional investors in emerging markets and their asset allocation decisions have significant implications for bond market developments and debt management policies in developing countries. This paper studies emerging market bond holdings of international funds and analyzes economic and financial factors affecting their bond preferences. It shows that mutual funds prefer to invest in countries with sound fundamentals and more openness to trade. In addition, they favor bonds with high past returns and yields while averting bonds with high transaction costs and idiosyncratic risks.