Stabilisation and Structural Adjustment in Developing Countries

Abstract

This paper analyses and compares World Bank structural adjustment programmes and International Monetary Fund (IMF) stabilisation programmes in Malawi during the 1980s and Jordan during the 1990s. Both are small aid-dependant economies with a narrow export base making them vulnerable to exogenous shocks. The article pays particular attention to the political economy environment in which reform programmes are implemented and to the role of exogenous shocks, both adverse and favourable, in determining the outcome of the programmes. The sequencing of reforms is also assessed in both countries.     

Adjustment policy and interest groups in developing countries

Adjustment programmes promoted by the IMF and the World Bank have met with mixed success in recent years. What part has the interaction of interest groups in the countries concerned played in this connection? What lessons are to be learnt for future adjustment programmes?     

The effects of structural adjustment programmes

Many developing countries are trying to improve their economic conditions by means of structural adjustment programmes. The following article points out the weaknesses of such programmes and draws conclusions about the support that should be given to economic reform in developing countries in the future.     

Structural adjustment programmes in sub-Saharan Africa

As a result of a donor conference staged by the World Bank in Paris on 3rd and 4th December, 1987, donor countries and international organizations now intend to make $6.4 billion available in the form of a special programme to highly indebted, low-income African countries to carry out structural adjustment programmes during the period 1988–1990. This sum includes approximately $6.4 billion available in the form of a special programme to highly indebted, low-income African countries to carry out structural adjustment programmes during the period 1988–1990. This sum includes approximately 3.2 billion of additional funds which donor countries wish to provide in support of such programmes on a co-financing or parallel financing basis together with the World Bank. This article offers an initial assessment of the proposed special programme, the possibilities opened up, the risks involved, and the necessary conditions for its success. The views expressed in this article are those of the author.     

The EC’s pre-accession aid to Portugal

Many experts expect Portugal’s and Spain’s integration into the EC to have a basically negative effect on their economies. Positive effects are expected essentially to be a result of the EC’s aid programmes. An indication as to how far the aid will in fact help to promote adjustment and modernization in the new Southern European member countries is shown by the following critical analysis of the aid programmes to date to Portugal.     

The lending policy of the International Monetary Fund

In the worldwide economic and debt crisis of the eighties the International Monetary Fund increasingly became the “lender of last resort” for a great many Third World countries. With world trade weak and interest rates high, a considerable number of developing countries got into serious balance-of-payments difficulties. The demand for stand-by and extended arrangements with the Fund rose dramatically. The conditions or adjustment programmes linked to this lending not infrequently led to serious social and political tensions in the countries concerned. The term “IMF riots” was coined, and the conditionality of credit again became the subject of political and academic debate.     

IMF and World Bank structural adjustment policies: Cooperation or conflict?

The adjustment crisis of the oil-importing developing countries has raised the question as to the specific roles of the IMF and the World Bank in the process of structural adjustment and the actual relationship between their different concepts and programmes. What are the areas of cooperation and conflict between these two institutions and what must alternative concepts for structural adjustment and conditionality take into consideration?     

Effects of world market oriented regional integration on developing countries

The inward-oriented wave of regionalisation in the mid-sixties in the so-called developing countries was judged, twenty years later, to have been a failure almost everywhere. Since the beginning of the nineties a new trend towards regionalisation has been emerging, this time more strongly oriented towards world markets. Do the new regional integration agreements complement the economic and development policy effects aimed at by the structural adjustment programmes of the international financial institutions? What effects do they have on the economic development and the industrialisation of the countries involved?     

Mini‐symposium on the WTO Non‐agricultural Market Access (NAMA) Negotiations

NAMA liberalisation alone will not be sufficient to achieve the development goals of the Doha Round. The structure of developing countries’ economies and weaknesses in their infrastructure and institutions mean that adjustment to liberalisation is often costly and export responses slow. To make NAMA work, developing countries will need technical and financial support to raise their ability to adapt to greater openness and globalisation pressures and to increase their export capabilities. Although developing countries should decide how to raise their ability to adjust and to increase exports, bilateral donors and multilateral agencies will need to fund NAMA support programmes. The WTO, however, is not the appropriate or competent international agency to provide or disburse such funding. It can provide technical advice and offers a negotiating vehicle for industrial countries to signal that the development aims of the Doha Round are recognised in substantive terms. If industrial countries support developing countries’ NAMA‐related adjustment costs in addition to offering NAMA tariff cuts, the chances of a successful Doha agreement and genuine pro‐development outcomes will be boosted significantly.     

Gender and geographic differences in intentional and unintentional injury mortality among children in Illinois, 1988–1998

Road traffic crashes and injuries constitute a major health, economic and developmental challenge for many African countries. With only 4% of the world's motor vehicles, African roads witness more than 10% of the world total collision fatalities. With further motorisation, the number of road traffic crashes, injuries and fatalities are expected to grow. This study updates on the status, trends, causes, countermeasures and issues in traffic safety in African countries by reviewing studies published in the past 12 years. The study found that traffic fatalities continued its upward trend in recent years. Similar to those in motorised countries, the study identified that human behaviour and incapacitation account for more than 85% of the contributing factors reported by police in Africa. Unlike in developed countries, the victims of traffic casualties are primarily vulnerable road users. Pedestrians alone account for more than 40% of the total fatalities on African roads. Limited countermeasures were reported in the literature. The outcomes of these programmes are mixed and the research methods have inconsistent validity. Investigation in the feasibility of transferring proven programmes from motorised countries is suggested as an efficient measure for traffic safety improvement.     

金融全球化与金融监管:动因、挑战与问题——基于新兴市场经济国家的分析

金融全球化的动因是放松管制和技术进步,引起了金融机构和市场结构的巨大变化。新兴市场经济国家因此面临许多新的金融监管问题：新的监管需求,传统监管方法的局限性．处理金融竞争方法的调整,消费者保护,监管成本的控制,监管协调等。新兴市场经济国家需要进一步面对跨国金融活动、国际金融标准和监管执行力的挑战。     

Globalisation and Policy Effects in Africa

Globalisation or market integration in Sub‐Saharan Africa is closely linked to the structural adjustment programmes. In this paper we focus on their dependence on the politics and institutional characteristics of the countries concerned. In particular, we argue that one important explanation for the dismal performance of many African countries, in spite of all the measures taken towards market liberalisation, is the combination of, first, a magnification of the effects of policy and, second, a lack of willingness or ability on the part of politicians to respect the restrictions imposed on their behaviour and policy choices by the liberalised markets. We look at how the increased exposure to international prices and returns on assets make the economic equilibrium relations – the law of one price and uncovered interest parity – relevant guidelines for economic policy. The argument is illustrated by the case of Zimbabwe, where lack of respect for the restrictions imposed by international markets has led to an economic crisis with negative growth rates and a departure from globalisation.     

Economic policy strategies in major industrial countries

The stubborn weakness of growth in the industrial countries since the mid-seventies is a manifestation of a serious crisis of stabilisation and adjustment whose roots go far beyond the oil price increases. Against this background there was a marked turn in the direction of economic policy as a result of changes of government in 1979 in the United Kingdom and in 1981 in the USA and France. The programmes to stimulate economic growth were based on the supply-side concept in the UK and the USA but on the demand concept in France. Our article assesses the measures actually taken and the policy accent in the three countries against the background of previous economic developments and the prevailing political and institutional circumstances.     

State of the science: violence prevention efforts in developing and developed countries

Violence is an important global public health problem that claims the lives of over 1.6 million people each year and results in numerous other health and social consequences. It is also a preventable health problem. This paper provides an overview of the current status of prevention efforts in developing and developed countries, describes what is known about the effectiveness of different approaches and highlights some of the important challenges in building the evidence-base for violence prevention programmes. Research conducted to date shows an imbalance in the emphasis of prevention programmes across the different types of violence. This imbalance is reflected in the timing of response, the nature and level of influence of interventions and programmes and the outcomes studied. Promising and effective approaches have been identified, but many more still require rigorous testing, particularly in developing countries. The current state of the science in violence prevention reveals both progress and a number of remaining challenges.     

External orientation and domestic market promotion

The increasing differentiation among developing countries, revealed by many indicators, also suggests that they have need of differing trade and development strategies. The following article reviews the across-the-board advice offered by agencies including the World Bank to “the” developing countries—“outward-orientation”, integration into the world economy, trade liberalisation-in the light of persistent shortages of foreign exchange and the limited capacity for structural adjustment, diversification and raising export levels in low-income primary commodity, exporting countries.     

Not Roadmaps but Toolboxes: Analysing Pioneering National Programmes for Sustainable Consumption and Production

The profusion of knowledge about the complexity of promoting sustainable consumption has led to calls to address the issue in a cross-cutting manner. This article discusses pioneering national sustainable consumption and production (SCP) programmes as tools for informed decision making. The analysis is based on a theory of three organizing principles for SCP policy: (1) deliberation, (2) efficiency and (3) sufficiency. These organizing principles protect and enact particular values and can be promoted in either a weak or strong manner. A comparison of three SCP programmes from Finland, Sweden, and the UK shows that different programmes emphasize somewhat different principles: programmes in the UK and Finland emphasize the efficiency principle, whereas the Swedish programme places considerable emphasis on promoting sufficiency, as well. Meanwhile, deliberation is well presented in all the programmes, but the countries apply it somewhat differently. On the whole, government commitment to the programmes is limited, and clear targets, timetables, and resources are mentioned only occasionally. Thus, rather than being credible roadmaps towards SCP, the pioneering programmes take the form of mixed toolboxes. The programmes contain many innovative and potentially effective proposals, but in responding to the challenges acknowledged in the programme documents, individual actors must bear heavy responsibilities. From this perspective, the pioneering SCP programmes also provide false reassurance and a means to outsource the promotion of SCP to non-government actors.     

Is ‘NAFTA Plus’ an Option in the North American Agrifood Sector?

With the implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) nearly complete, there are concerns that the easy gains in efficiency have been achieved and that additional steps towards the economic integration of the member countries are required. This poses a distinct challenge to the NAFTA governments, since the agreement did not create trinational institutions with the supranational authority to facilitate the deepening of the new trading environment. In any initiative to further the economic integration of the NAFTA countries, agriculture will be a difficult sector in which to make progress. However, at an aggregate level, the support provided directly to agricultural producers by the NAFTA governments is similar, as are tariffs at an aggregate level. All three countries have devised income support programmes that contain a countercyclical element. In each of these areas, as well as in the operation of ‘green box’ programmes that are consistent with the member countries’ obligations to the World Trade Organization, cooperation and consultation among the NAFTA members would seem crucial if they are to achieve greater integration in the agrifood sector. This article examines the opportunities and challenges facing the NAFTA members as they seek further integration in the agrifood sector.     

Public Pension Reform in Europe: Policies,Prospects and Evaluation

This paper describes the demographic and economic factors underlying the reform of public pension programmes in Europe. It examines the policy response, both at the Europe‐wide level and within individual European countries. Several programme reform strategies that have been implemented are evaluated. These strategies are the greater pre‐funding of public pensions and expanded second‐tier private pension components, ‘parametric’ reforms to existing programmes, and the development of formula‐driven ‘actuarially fair’ public programmes. Efforts to provide greater incentives for individuals to postpone retirement are also discussed.     

Preference Erosion,Government Revenues and Non‐tariff Trade Barriers

Developing countries benefiting from developed country unilateral trade preferences fear that Doha Round tariff cuts will erode the value of those preferences. That these programmes confer significant benefits, however, is not clear. Studies indicate that the impact of preference erosion would be minimal for most developing countries. But for a small subset of middle‐income and least‐developed countries, concern may be warranted. WTO members, should address affected countries’ concerns, perhaps by tailoring WTO tariff negotiations to lessen adjustment pressures and providing development assistance. Developing countries also are anxious that lower tariffs will reduce government revenues. Dependence on tariff revenue is diminishing and trade liberalisation need not result in lower total tax revenues or even lower customs revenues. Much depends on a country's current tariff and trade regime, its tax structure and its overall economic structure. At some point, a country does need to broaden its tax base and look to other revenue sources to offset declining tariff revenues. Tax reform, therefore, complements trade reform. A third area of developing country concern is non‐tariff barriers (NTBs), which may limit market access even after tariffs are reduced. Despite prior WTO work in this area, NTBs remain a thorny issue for all WTO members.     

Global Imbalances and Petrodollars

Oil exporters have run large current account surpluses. We explore oil exporters’ role in the global imbalances debate. Current account dynamics are estimated for oil‐exporting countries and the rest of the world. We find that fiscal policy has a much stronger effect on the current account of oil exporters than on current accounts of other countries. The current account adjustment of oil‐exporting countries is also faster. Fiscal policy of oil exporters can have a significant and speedy impact on global imbalances. The impact via the adjustment of exchange rates might not be effective.