Is integration I(d) applicable to observed economics and finance time series?

The method of cointegration in regression analysis is based on an assumption of stationary increments. Stationary increments with fixed time lag are called ‘integration I(d)’. A class of regression models where cointegration works was identified by Granger and yields the ergodic behavior required for equilibrium expectations in standard economics. Detrended finance market returns are martingales, and martingales do not satisfy regression equations. We ask if there exist detrended processes beyond standard regression models that satisfy integration I(d). We show that stationary increment martingales are confined to the Wiener process, and observe that martingales describing finance data admit neither the integration I(d) nor the ergodicity required for long time equilibrium relationships. In particular, the martingales derived from finance data do not admit the time (or ‘space’) translational invariance required for increment stationarity. Our analysis explains the lack of equilibrium observed earlier between FX rates and relative price levels.     

Efficiency and risk in commercial banking: empirical evidence from East Asian countries

This paper analyses the effects of off-balance sheet (OBS) activities and various types of risks on the cost and profit efficiencies of banks in seven East Asian countries between 2001 and 2008. Cost and profit efficiency scores are estimated using the data envelopment analysis approach. The results of this analysis are then used to identify the impact of OBS activities and risk exposures on cost and profit efficiencies using a Tobit regression. Bank insolvency risk (as measured by z-scores) is positively related to profit efficiency, while interest sensitivity, size, equity to total assets and OBS exposures all impact on cost efficiency. The analysis of the impact of input and output slacks illustrates that in around 1 in 5 cases banks’ cost efficiency can be improved by adjusting the former variables, whereas in only around 1 in 100 cases a similar outcome is possible for profit efficiency.     

Three tenors in perfect harmony: “close readings" of the joint letter by the heads of aluminium giantsalcan , pechiney, and Alusuisse announcing their mega-merger plan

Speeches, shareholders’ letters and other utterances by business leaders help shape what is accepted as legitimate discourse in organizations and society. This paper focuses on the joint letter, issued by the CEOs of three global aluminium companies, announcing a proposed unique three-way merger. That letter is read and analysed closely, both in terms of content and context. The themes of ideology, audience and metaphor are employed with the intent to make the cognitive world of the three leaders at least partially visible, and to sustain needed counter-discourse. The analysis of the joint letter reveals an elitist, exclusionary text based upon assumptions that are consistent with the extreme rhetoric of the allegedly “free" market.     

Market structure and competitive conditions in the Arab GCC banking system

This paper investigates the market structure of Arab GCC banking industry during the years of 1993–2002 using the most frequently applied measures of concentration k-bank concentration ratio (CRk) and Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) and evaluates the monopoly power of banks over the ten years period using the ‘H-statistic’ by Panzar and Rosse. The results show that Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and UAE have moderately concentrated markets and are moving to less concentrated positions. The measures of concentration also show that Qatar, Bahrain and Oman are highly concentrated markets. The Panzar–Rosse H-statistics suggest that banks in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE operate under perfect competition; banks in Bahrain and Qatar operate under conditions of monopolistic competition; and we are unable to reject monopolistic competition for the banking market in Oman.     

Aktuareksamen og Eksamen i Statistik ved Køhenhavns Universitet

Abstract

For any continuous univariate population with finite variance there is a mathematical relation which expresses the variate-value z as a convergent series of Legendre polynomials in (2F—1), where F≡F(z) is the distribution function of the population, and the coefficients in this series are the expectations of homogeneous linear forms in the order statistics of random samples from the population. The relation is well adapted for estimating the median and other percentile points when nothing more is known about the population, but a random sample from it is available. The variances of these estimates can be estimated from the data. A somewhat similar relation which expresses z as a series of Chebyshev polynomials is also discussed briefly. Finally a modification of the Legendre polynomial relation enables prior knowledge of a finite extremity of the population range to be used, and a numerical illustration is given.     

Achievement Goal Theory: The Relationship of Accounting Students’ Goal Orientations with Self-efficacy,Anxiety, and Achievement

Abstract

Students’ goal orientations are examined using two major frameworks for learning: achievement goal theory (AGT) and students’ approaches to learning (SAL). Previous student success research is extended, by examining goal constructs from the AGT framework to determine if they help explain the learning process in accounting. Data were gathered using an established instrument and used to examine how mastery and performance goals are related to students’ academic expectations, achievement, self-efficacy, and test anxiety. Cluster analysis was used to identify four motivation groupings (multiple-goal, mastery, performance, and low motivation). Pairwise comparisons of groups, for expected grades, self-efficacy, anxiety, final exam grade, and course grade, identified differences among some of the clusters. Results suggest that a combination of mastery and performance goal motivations, rather than a singular perspective, may provide better outcomes related to course grades, while reducing dysfunctional outcomes. Based on the results, suggestions are provided to help instructors influence student success.     

The use of on-line summative assessment in an undergraduate financial accounting course

According to the Quality Assurance Agency [QAA (2006). Section 6: Assessment of students, Code of practice for the assurance of academic quality and standards in higher education. <http://www.qaa.ac.uk/>. Accessed 14.03.2007] “Assessment describes any processes that appraise an individual’s knowledge, understanding, abilities or skills” and is inextricably linked to a course or programme’s intended learning outcomes. Assessment also has a fundamental effect on students’ learning where it serves a variety of purposes including evaluation, feedback and motivation. Assessment also provides a performance indicator for both students and staff. Computer-aided assessment (CAA) offers an option for “sustainable assessment” and provides opportunities for creating innovative assessment practices that help engage students and increase their motivation for learning. This paper reports the findings of a qualitative study where a series of on-line summative assessments were introduced into a first-year financial accounting course. Feedback from students obtained from an evaluative survey and focus group interviews indicates that assessment played a significant role in the teaching/learning process. That is, students perceived a beneficial impact on learning, motivation, and engagement.     

No one is perfect: The limits of transparency and an ethic for ‘intelligent’ accountability

This paper draws on the work of Butler [Butler, J. (2005). Giving an account of oneself. New York: Fordham University Press] to develop a critique of the operation and adequacy of transparency as a form of accountability. The paper begins with an exploration of accountability as subjection explored through Lacan’s account of the social dynamics of recognition, and Freud’s account of guilt. This analysis then informs an exploration of what is argued to be our typically ambivalent embrace of transparency as a form of accountability. The final section of the paper investigates the potential for a more ‘intelligent’ form of accountability, grounded in an ethic of humility and generosity, made possible by a conscious acknowledgement of the ways in which I can never quite know what it is that I am doing.     

Ranking accounting authors and departments in accounting education: different methodologies – significantly different results

This research tests whether Holderness Jr., D. K., Myers, N., Summers, S. L., & Wood, D. A. [(2014). Accounting education research: Ranking institutions and individual scholars. Issues in Accounting Education, 29(1), 87–115] accounting-education rankings are sensitive to a change in the set of journals used. It provides updated rankings for accounting-education authors from Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the Republic of Ireland, the United Kingdom, and the United States using a sample that included the publications in 13 accounting-education journals. Our analysis indicated that Holderness et al.’s rankings of authors and departments were significantly different from our rankings. This research provides rankings of the top 50 authors and departments for three periods: from 2010 to 2015, from 2004 to 2015, and from 1992 to 2015. We provide data indicating the distribution of authors for these periods to assist authors not listed in the most prolific lists in determining their relative ranking. Finally, we provide data on the distribution of journal choices for accounting-education publications for the authors from each country.     

Modelling the post-industrial city

A new kind of city is emerging: globalized (connected to other cities in global networks); tertiarized and even quaternarized (dependent almost entirely for its economic existence on advanced services); ‘informationalized’ (using information as a raw material); and polycentric (dispersing residences and decentralizing employment into multiple centres or ‘edge cities’). The question is how we can adapt the urban and transportation models, which originated in the very different world of the 1960s, to these conditions, and what kind of model would then result.     

Ranking Accounting Ph.D. Programs and Faculties Using Social Science Research Network Downloads

We rank accounting Ph.D. programs and accounting faculties based on downloads individuals' working papers posted to the Social Science Research Network (SSRN) receive. We retain 185 individuals included in Accounting Faculty Directory 2002–2003 (Hasselback, 2002) whose work has been most heavily downloaded as of August 21, 2002. We rank Ph.D. programs (faculties) both adjusting and not adjusting for program (faculty) size. We provide rankings both without regards to when individuals graduated and for individuals graduating during three consecutive sub-periods: pre-1982, 1982–1991 and 1992–2001. We first provide rankings without regards to teaching or research area. After dichotomizing individuals into those whose teaching/research area is financial versus non-financial we provide additional rankings focusing on non-financial research areas.     

A coevolutionary analysis of organisational systems and processes: Quantitative applications to information system dynamics in small entrepreneurial firms

We present a quantitative, dynamic analysis of coevolution in the new firm. Organisation is treated as a process, rather than a state, involving the simultaneous evolution of interacting systems within, and between, small firms and their environment. Our quantitative analysis uses primary source, time-elapsed data, obtained by face-to-face interviews with entrepreneurs. We found a link between performance and microevolutionary experience. High performers were more innovative, more radical ‘change makers’, more willing to ‘wait and see’, and more willing to use ‘soft’ technologies than low performers.     

India’s strategic future: 2025

Based on the geopolitical developments in India’s neighbouring countries and India’s response to them, this paper depicts four scenarios—Storms and Fires, Rainbow in the Sky, Light and Shadows and Across Space. Each scenario explores a set of possible events and the consequences triggered by it. While Storms and Fires is based on the rise of a sharp nationalist Indian sentiment in the face of heightened security tensions in the region, Across Space outlines the future of India’s worldview shaped by the present government’s policy of US primacy. Light and Shadows is based on differential policy towards neighbours—conflict with Pakistan and cooperation with other neighbours. This scenario is predicated on the supremacy of economic objectives whereas Rainbow in the Sky is based on the regional cooperation as the primary guiding force of the Indian foreign policy. Though major geopolitical events in its neighbourhood will impact the immediate future of India, India’s response and internal strengths and weaknesses will determine its long-term future. It is therefore essential for the country to develop a well considered trajectory of its strategic options for the next 25 years.     

A writing intervention for the accounting classroom: dealing with the problem of faulty modifiers

Good communication skills continue to be viewed as critical for success in accounting. This paper demonstrates a writing-skills “intervention” that deals with faulty modifiers, a grammatical problem that can inhibit accounting students and professionals from achieving the clarity and conciseness widely regarded as essential in the accounting profession. The intervention consists of a handout distributed to students – fashioned to sensitize them to the pervasiveness of faulty modifiers and help them avoid the problem – and an in-class discussion of the handout. By design, this intervention is both inexpensive and unobtrusive. For the accounting instructor, we provide in the body of the paper a technical, but unpedantic and informal, analysis of faulty modifiers, including numerous examples of the problem, accompanied by alternative corrections. To date, few papers in the accounting education literature that deal with writing problems present direct assessment evidence. To assess the efficacy and perceived value of our learning intervention, we collected assessment data – both direct (i.e., a set of three diagnostic tests) and indirect (i.e., feedback from a student questionnaire) from two institutions at which our learning intervention was tested. These data suggest than an intervention of the sort described here can be valuable in remedying discrete weaknesses of student writing. In a larger sense, we believe our paper can be used as a model for the development of similar “interventions” that cover other grammatical problems, and that can serve either as stand-alone entities (similar to the method proposed by Reinstein and Houston (2004) [Using the Securities and Exchange Commission’s “plain English” guidelines to improve accounting students’ writing skills. Journal of Accounting Education, 22, 53–67]) or as complementary resources to more comprehensive and formal writing programs.     

Identifying unexpected accruals: a comparison of current approaches

While prior research, as noted in our paper, often uses various accrual prediction models to detect earnings management, not much is known about the accuracy, both relative and absolute, associated with these models. Our paper investigates the accuracy of six different accrual prediction models, and offers the following findings. Only the Kang – Sivaramakrishnan (1995) model performs moderately well. The remaining five models provide little ability to predict total accruals: they are less accurate than a naïve model which predicts that total accruals equal −5% of the total assets (TA) for all firms and years. Conventional R² values from a regression of actual accruals on predicted accruals are less than zero for a substantial majority of firms for these five models. These low R² values in the prediction period contrast sharply with the much higher R² values that are obtained within the estimation period. Similar performance is observed when predicting current accruals alone. However, the relative rankings of the different models are altered somewhat: the Jones (1991) model is then the only model that exhibits some predictive ability.     

A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model

A ‘long memory’ property of stock market returns is investigated in this paper. It is found that not only there is substantially more correlation between absolute returns than returns themselves, but the power transformation of the absolute return ¦r_t¦^d also has quite high autocorrelation for long lags. It is possible to characterize ¦r_t¦^d to be ‘long memory’ and this property is strongest when d is around 1. This result appears to argue against ARCH type specifications based upon squared returns. But our Monte-Carlo study shows that both ARCH type models based on squared returns and those based on absolute return can produce this property. A new general class of models is proposed which allows the power δ of the heteroskedasticity equation to be estimated from the data.     

An Empirical Investigation of the Option-Adjusted Realized Return

The issue of meaningful evaluation of professionally managed portfolios remains to be resolved satisfactorily within the investment community. The fact that many of the current procedures for evaluating portfolio performance are deeply rooted in conventional mean-variance (M-V) analysis raises serious concerns from a theoretical perspective. The primary objective of this paper is an empirical investigation (as differentiated from a thorough empirical test) of an ordinal portfolio performance measure, called the Option-adjusted Realized (average rate of) Return or ORR, developed recently by Smith and Kokoska (1998). The ORR is a leverage- and risk-adjusted average realized rate of return that can be used directly in evaluating portfolio performance.Using returns data for June 1992 to May 1998, we estimate ORRs for two portfolios—the CREF Stock Fund and a hypothetical market index portfolio whose composition is identical to that of the S&P 500 Index. Also, we estimate Sharpe and Treynor ratio values for each portfolio and compare rankings provided by these methods for the two portfolios with rankings provided by the ORR method. For the interval of time from June 1995 to May 1998, the rankings provided by the three methods are not consistent. The ORR rankings for this time period indicate the CREF Fund underperformed the S&P Index on a risk-adjusted basis. Additional partitioning of the data creates other multiple intervals or holding periods for which the evaluation results (ex post) support at least moderate likelihood of unambiguous inconsistency ex ante. We argue that, given our set of assumptions, the ORR rankings, founded in option-pricing theory, are more reliable than the others that are M-V based.     

Safety Products, Inc.: A case in financial analysis of a failing company

Safety Products, Inc. was a small, private corporation that manufactured acrylic sheet plastic. After a massive fire, the company filed a claim against its business interruption insurance for lost income. The policy covered profits that would have been earned, based on Safety’s financial records, had the disaster not occurred. The insurance company denied the claim on the grounds that Safety Products was not a going concern, and, therefore, there were no lost earnings.The basic learning objective of the case is to develop the students’ abilities to use and analyze a company history, along with its financial statements and ratios, to evaluate the going-concern assumption. The AICPA Core Competency Framework identifies a set of skills-based competencies needed to enter the accounting profession. The case provides a means to develop student skills in the Functional, Personal, and Broad Business Competencies, which are core skills relevant to long-term career opportunities. [American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA) (2001). AICPA core competency framework for entry into the accounting profession (the framework). Retrieved from < http://www.aicpa.org/edu/corecomp.htm > on April 3, 2006]The case is directed to an upper-division undergraduate or graduate course in Financial Statement Analysis. However, the case could be used in any accounting course that examines the going-concern or continuity assumption among the traditional assumptions of the accounting model.     

UK mutual fund performance: Skill or luck?

Using a comprehensive data set on (surviving and non-surviving) UK equity mutual funds, we use a cross-section bootstrap methodology to distinguish between ‘skill’ and ‘luck’ for individual funds. This methodology allows for non-normality in the idiosyncratic risk of the funds — a major issue when considering those funds which appear to be either very good or very bad performers, since these are the funds which investors are primarily interested in identifying. Our study points to the existence of stock picking ability among a relatively small number of top performing UK equity mutual funds (i.e. performance which is not solely due to good luck). At the negative end of the performance scale, our analysis strongly rejects the hypothesis that most poor performing funds are merely unlucky. Most of these funds demonstrate ‘bad skill’. Recursive estimation and Kalman ‘smoothed’ coefficients indicate temporal stability in the ex-post performance alpha's of winner and loser portfolios. We also find performance persistence amongst loser but not amongst winner funds.     

Basel Core Principles and bank soundness: Does compliance matter?

This paper studies whether compliance with the Basel Core Principles for effective banking supervision (BCPs) is associated with bank soundness. Using data for over 3000 banks in 86 countries, we find that neither the overall index of BCP compliance nor its individual components are robustly associated with bank risk measured by individual bank Z-scores. We also fail to find a relationship between BCP compliance and systemic risk measured by a system-wide Z-score.