Negotiation support using the Decision Support System GMCR

The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution constitutes a unique and flexible approach to the representation, analysis, and understanding of strategic conflict. This methodology, as implemented in the Decision Support System GMCR, constitutes a useful tool for negotiation support. Because GMCR includes efficient algorithms for calculating the stability of states, it encourages extensive comparisons of the consequences of different models of negotiators' decision making. GMCR also facilitates modifications to the way in which the conflict is represented, encouraging sensitivity and what-if analyses. The applicability of GMCR to negotiations is discussed in general, and in the context of a specific case study in environmental conflict resolution.     

The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution: Past,Present, and Future

The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution is a methodology for the modeling and analysis of strategic conflicts. An historical overview of the graph model is presented, including the basic modeling and analysis components of the methodology, the decision support system GMCR II that is now used to apply it, and the recent initiatives that are currently in various stages of development. The capacity of this simple, flexible system to provide advice to decision-makers facing strategic conflicts is emphasized throughout, and illustrated using a real-life groundwater contamination dispute.     

Strategy,Complexity and Cooperation: The Sino-American Climate Regime

The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution is applied to a potential climate negotiation between the United States of America (USA) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in order to gain strategic insights into how a successful agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions could be reached. In light of the failure of many nations to meet their expected Kyoto Protocol emission reduction targets and the lack of involvement of the world’s greatest emitters of airborne pollutants, the USA and PRC, there is a need to determine successful strategies for combating climate change. The issues surrounding the potential implementation of a bilateral agreement between the USA and PRC are systematically analyzed. Information gathered about the decision makers, options and preferences within the potential negotiations is utilized to create a valid conflict model which is used as a basis for carrying out strategic analyses. Moreover, a novel method is implemented within the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution to gain insights into the impact of attitudes on these negotiations. The strategic findings reflect reasonably well what actually occurred in November 2014 when the USA and PRC negotiated a bilateral deal.     

Coalition Analysis in Group Decision Support

GMCR II, a decision support system based on the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution, now contains an algorithm for Coalition Analysis to alert users that certain decision-makers would find it both feasible and beneficial to co-ordinate their actions. The theory and implementation of Coalition Analysis in GMCR II are discussed and illustrated.     

Enhancing National Security and Energy Security in the Post-911 Era: Group Decision Support for Strategic Policy Analysis under Conditions of Conflict

Energy source diversity has become a fundamental principle of both US energy security and national security. The decision of whether or not to approve a new power plant facility in the US involves complex group decision and negotiation processes. These contentious, value-laden, and multi-faceted self organizing processes involve many decision makers (broad constituencies) with conflicting priorities and dynamic preferences, high decision stakes, limited technical information (both in terms of quality and quantity), and difficult tradeoffs. As population pressures and energy demands continue to mount, advances in conflict resolution can help to improve power plant siting processes as well as US energy security and national security. Specifically, this paper uses advances in the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution and its associated decision support system (DSS) GMCR II to analyze strategic aspects of a multi-party energy dispute involving the co-management of a shared air shed in the Fraser Lowland Eco-Region based on Sumas Energy 2 (SE2), a contentious power plant project proposed for the US side of the international border between the city of Abbotsford, British Columbia and town of Sumas, Washington. GMCR II provides strategic insights for enhancing energy security, national security, and environmental risk management in the United States.     

The Role of Emotions in Envisioning Outcomes in Conflict Analysis

A conceptual framework is proposed that accounts for the role of emotions in shaping conflict behavior. The isomorphism between the characteristics that define and drive conflict and those that engender emotions makes it feasible to reconcile emotions with current conflict analysis techniques. Building on Damasio's somatic markers hypothesis, the concept of possibility facilitates modeling the effects of emotion on the scenarios apprehended by the decision makers. Attention is focused on two subsets of the conventional set of feasible states, the hiddenstates that are invisible because of existing emotions (usually negative), and the possiblestates that are invisible because of missing emotions (usually positive). These new concepts can be incorporated within the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution. A model of the confrontation between the United States and North Korea over nuclear weapons demonstrates that the new concepts can simplify analysis and make new predictions that are consistent with the actual unfolding of events. Our main goals are to draw attention to the centrality of emotion in conflict and to the need for research on the incorporation of emotions into conflict analysis and resolution methods.     

B2B Negotiation Support: The Need for a Communication Perspective

Negotiation support is an important challenge for business-to-business e-commerce that is still poorly supported in current information systems. One reason is that negotiation processes are much harder to formalize than the business processes in the fulfilment phase. The goal of this paper is to provide the basis for a formal analysis of different types of electronic negotiations which can help developers of future negotiation support systems. The analysis is performed from a communication perspective, in particular, Habermas' theory of communicative action. Using this perspective, a distinction can be made between norm-oriented, goal-oriented and document-based negotiation. Whereas traditional modeling methods take a data-oriented view, the theory of communicative action supports a communication-oriented view that provides more insight in the logic of negotiation processes. The analysis forms the basis for the negotiation support prototype implemented within the ESPRIT project MeMo (Mediating and Monitoring Electronic Commerce) which was aimed at B2B e-commerce for SMEs in Europe.     

INTERACT: Developing software for interactive decisions

This paper describes the development and use of a piece of software, INTERACT, for analyzing situations under the control of several interested parties. After briefly discussing forms of analysis used, it outlines the design philosophy of the software itself. Particular attention is paid to its intended use in a decision support role. The functions typically performed in the course of analysis are illustrated using a worked example. Finally, avenues for further development are outlined.An earlier version of this paper was read at the Conference on Decision Making under Conditions of Conflict, University of Waterloo, Ontario, August/Sept 1992     

Using Policy Modeling to Describe the Negotiation Exchange

This is a study of the points of view in a negotiation. Policy modeling, a new method for understanding utilities, is discussed. With policy modeling, the importance weights, subjective values, and a trade-off strategy were estimated from prenegotiation ratings. With these parameters, the values of unfamiliar offers made during a negotiation then also could be estimated. The utility models of the individual negotiators allowed display of the pattern or dance of offers of a particular negotiation. These graphs showed a surprising stability of utilities prior to and during the negotiation. Individual negotiator's offers and perceptions of the opponent's offers during negotiation were consistent with the utility predicted from the policy model. Results are discussed in terms of the important role of utilities in negotiation and the potential for this new method to examine variables that may influence, or cause a departure from, the stability of utilities during negotiation.     

The Effects of Personal and Group Level Factors on the Outcomes of Simulated Auditor and Client Teams

The way that auditor and client teams develop team resources that they can later use in negotiating with their counterparts is a critical but unexplored issue in auditing research. This study examines several important issues that may affect the development of these team resources. Specifically, it uses interacting groups to evaluate the dynamic interplay between personal and perceived group level factors in determining individual team members' satisfaction with the team's solution, and the development of perceptions of team atmosphere.First, a model of the intra-person and intra-team decision processes is introduced. This model posits that individuals' personalities and hierarchical levels influence their choice of conflict style, the development of their perceptions of the team's atmosphere, and ultimately their satisfaction with the solution reached by the team. Conflict style also is posited to affect perceptions of the team's atmosphere and solution satisfaction. We then test the model using structural equation modeling. We also examine the development of consensus within the teams. Students working on their MBA and MS in Business and Accounting at two AACSB-accredited universities participated in this study. The results provide dramatic evidence of the influence of the factors of interest on the resources that each team brings to the ultimate negotiation with its counterpart team.     

物流外包中的冲突分析及解决机制

物流外包中的冲突不涉及到根本利益的对抗,这种冲突在物流运营过程中普遍存在。分析了物流外包冲突的机理,建立了一个以物流集成商为中心的物流外包冲突分析模型,并进行了稳定性分析,找出了解决方案,最后提出了冲突分析的解决机制：协商机制和激励机制。     

Cultural Differentiation of Negotiating Agents

Negotiations proceed differently across cultures. For realistic modeling of agents in multicultural negotiations, the agents must display culturally differentiated behavior. This paper presents an agent-based simulation model that tackles these challenges, based on Hofstede’s model of national cultures. The context is a trade network for goods with a hidden quality attribute. The negotiation model is based on the ABMP negotiation architecture and applies a utility function that includes market value, quality preference and risk attitude. The five dimensions of Hofstede’s model are the basis for the modification of ABMP parameters and weight factors in the utility function. The agents can observe each other’s group membership and status. This information is used, along with the indices of Hofstede’s dimensions, to differentiate behavior in different cultural settings. The paper presents results of test runs that verify the implementation of the model. The model helps to explain behaviors of actors in international trade networks. It proves that Hofstede’s dimensions can be used to generate culturally differentiated agents. Further validations of the model with case studies from literature and experiments have yet to be conducted. Extensions can make this model a useful tool for training traders who engage in cross-cultural negotiation and for implementation in negotiation support systems.     

Qualitative representations of negotiations: Tutorial on a rule-based approach

This article introduces a logic-based approach for structuring and representing negotiation problems and for supporting negotiators. It is argued that rule-based formalism allows for integrating decision-making aspects unique and specific to negotiations with general reasoning mechanisms based on rationality postulates. The discussion of the rule-based systems and its application to negotiation modeling and support is preceded by an outline of qualitative and quantitative approaches to problem representation and reasoning, and an overview of predicate calculus. The advantages and disadvantages of rule-based systems and their ability to capture complex negotiation decision processes and reasoning are also given.     

An empirical study of an interactive,session-oriented computerized Negotiation Support System (NSS)

Negotiating is one of the four major decisional roles played by managers. In fact, resolving conflict is said to occupy 20% of a manager's working hours. This growing frequency of negotiation scenarios coupled with the increasing complexity of the issues which need to be resolved in a negotiation make the possibility of computer enhancement for negotiation very appealing. Implementations of computerized Negotiation Support Systems (NSS) in the business world, international affairs, labor law, and environmental and safety disputes have demonstrated their potential for making negotiation problems more manageable and comprehensible for negotiators. Still, pioneers in NSS research have expressed their dismay at the lack of rigorous empirical research and evaluation of NSS. In particular, research is needed which will determine how and under what circumstances negotiation processes can be enhanced by NSS support.This article describes empirical research on the effects of a highly structured, interactive NSS on the outcome of face-to-face issues resolution and the attitudes of negotiators in both low- and high-conflict situations. In a laboratory experiment, bargaining dyads played the roles of manufacturers negotiating a four-issue, three-year purchase agreement for an engine subcomponent in conditions of high and low conflict of interest. The results of the study showed that NSS support did help bargainers achieve higher joint outcomes and more balanced contracts, but that the NSS support increased negotiation time. Satisfaction was greater for NSS dyads in both conflict levels, and perceived negative climate was reduced in low conflict.One primary implication of the results of this study is that NSS developers should keep in mind the importance of providing users with a system with interactive qualities which not only enhance the decision-making process but also provide them with a sense of participation in reaching the solution, as was done in this study.     

利益冲突视角下的廉政文化建设

利益冲突是产生腐败的重要根源。有效管理和防止利益冲突是我国反腐倡廉建设的新方向。我们要借鉴国外先进经验,坚持社会主义先进文化的发展方向,积极构筑具有中国特色的廉政文化建设体系．以廉政文化建设筑牢防止利益冲突的软机制。     

组织新聘员工与原有员工冲突动因及其消减的实证研究

冲突作为一种社会现象,在组织内外随处可见。随着我国劳动力人才市场化配置的日趋完善,组织的人员流动也日趋频繁,组织新聘员工与原有员工冲突已成为一种普遍现象,然而针对该现象的研究却是凤毛麟角。本文以实证研究的方法分析了导致此类冲突的动因及其有效的消减方式。研究结果表明：性格差异等七项因素是导致此类冲突的动因;针对不同动因引发的冲突,有着不同的有效消减方式。     

Strategies and language trends in learning success and failure of negotiation

In negotiation by electronic means, language is an important deal-making tool which helps realize negotiation strategies. Negotiators may use language to request information, exchange offers, persuade, threaten, as well as reach a compromise or find prospective partners. All this is recorded in texts exchanged by negotiators. We explore the language signals of strategies—argumentation, persuasion, negation, proposition. Leech and Svartvik’s approach to language in communication gives our study the necessary systematic background. It combines pragmatics, the communicative grammar and the meaning of English verbs. Language signals become features in the task of classifying those texts. We employ Statistical Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning techniques to find general trends that negotiation texts exhibit. Our hypothesis is that language signals help predict negotiation outcomes. We run experiments on the Inspire data. The electronic negotiation support system Inspire was gathering data for several years. The data include text messages which negotiators may exchange while trading offers. We conduct a series of Machine Learning experiments to predict the negotiation outcome from the texts associated with first halves of negotiations. We compare the results with the classification of complete negotiations. We conclude the paper with an analysis of the results and a list of suggestions for future work.