试论观念创新——企业创新的先导

人类社会的每一次重大变革,总是以思想的进步和观念的更新为先导。作为企业的发展,同样要求思想的不断解放和观念的不断更新。在现阶段,谁能迅即转变思想观念,谁就可以抓住大变革时期的宝贵机遇而迅速发展。因此,企业要有新的活力、立于不败之地,同样也离不开科学的思维,需要实现企业观念的创新。     

公共养老金个人账户制度实施条件研究

理论界尚乏对公共养老金个人账户制度实施条件的专门研究。本文在剖析公共养老金基金制个人账户计划（FDC）和名义账户制（NDC）运行机理的基础上,结合典型国家制度变量,对个人账户制度的实施条件进行了分析,进而以这些条件为标准,对中国个人账户制度的可持续发展进行了探讨。研究表明：转制成本的有效消化、具备基本要素和监管机制较为健全的资本市场、科学的精算机制和信息系统、有效的就业政策是个人账户制度建立所需的基本条件。同时,个人账户制度的规模要与一国国民产出分配结构、总税率、贫富差距状况等经济变量相适应。面对中国企业职工基本养老保险个人账户制度的“空账”窘境,名义账户制不失为其一个较为理性的选择。     

Pricing-to-Market: the Japanese Experience with a Falling Yen and the Asian Crisis

The paper examines whether Japanese exporters changed their strategic pricing behavior as a result of the profit squeeze of the late 1980s. It shows that shocks such as the end-of-bubble, the prolonged yen depreciation, and the Asian crisis affected export prices. These effects, however, are too small to change the long-run equilibrium relation between sectoral export prices and their determinants. In particular, results suggest that Japanese exporters are not using the depreciation of the yen to gain market share.     

日元贷款融入中国经济

<正> 根据最新统计,中国目前利用日元贷款已经有了相当规模。截至2002年7月底,日本政府累计向我国承诺提供日元贷款28292亿日元,安排建设186个项目,我国实际使用日元贷款约19000亿日元,约90个项目已建成投产。日本是最早向我国提供政府贷款的国家之一,贷款协议累计额占外国政府对华贷款总额的一半强,在所有24个对华提供政府贷款的国家和地区性金融机构中金额最大。我国利用日元贷款的项目涉     

A Quick Method for Assessing Economic Damage Caused by Natural Disasters: An Epidemiological Approach

In the aftermath of any natural disaster, a quick assessment of economic damage is called for, without which recovery planning and fiscal budgeting is impossible. What is customarily done as damage accounting is to use some aggregation by parts method, which is predisposed to commit double counting, omission, and bureaucratic inconsistencies. As an alternative, we propose to work with a social epidemiological model. First, we present a result by means of a log linear model which shows evidence of hazard factors and vulnerability factors at work. We then simplify the model by deleting the variables that are not significant in a linear formulation. Lastly, we give our estimate of economic damage for the case of the North East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of March 11, 2011 and alert that the true damage may well be the double of government??s estimate.     

Bringing Ecosystem Services into the Real World: An Operational Framework for Assessing the Economic Consequences of Losing Wild Nature

Policy action to halt the global loss of biodiversity and ecosystems is hindered by the perception that it would be so costly as to compromise economic development, yet this assumption needs testing. Inspired by the recent Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, the leaders of the G8+5 nations commissioned a similar assessment of the economics of losing biodiversity, under the Potsdam Initiative on Biodiversity. Here, we propose a conceptual framework for such a global assessment which emphasizes several critical insights from the environmental economics and valuation literature: contrasting counterfactual scenarios which differ solely in whether they include specific conservation policies; identifying non-overlapping benefits; modeling the production, flow, use and value of benefits in a spatially-explicit way; and incorporating the likely costs as well as possible benefits of policy interventions. Tackling these challenges, we argue, will significantly enhance our ability to quantify how the loss of benefits derived from ecosystems and biodiversity compares with the costs incurred in retaining them. We also summarise a review of the current state of knowledge, in order to assess how quickly this framework could be operationalized for some key ecosystem services.     

Assessing the Costs of a Haulage Regime

Third‐party access to rail infrastructure in Western Australia's Pilbara region is a contentious issue due to concerns about how third‐party trains might impact on incumbents' operations. A recent State Government proposal involves a haulage regime, rather than access by third‐party trains. This article explores the ramifications of haulage by examining voluntary haulage in the United States. It finds, with some caveats, that haulage seems more appropriate to the Pilbara situation than access.     

Assessing Sino-Indian Economic Relations in an Interdependence Framework: 1992-2008

This study situates Sino-Indian economic interaction under the interdependence framework.By mapping conflict behavior in this dyad against the trends in the economic interdependence,we find a discernible shift away from escalation(high-level conflict)towards bargaining(diplomatic contestation).This paper argues that interdependence has only recently emerged in the India-China dyad and that lingering strategic distrust,national security consideration,and protectionist tendency have prevented the deepening of economic interdependence.The findings challenge the direction of interdependence in this dyad normally gleaned from nominal trade data.This paper also highlights key issue-areas that inhibit strategic coupling in the bilateral economic interaction.     

日元与人民币:区域内货币合作抑或货币竞争

针对日元与人民币的关系问题,笔者研究发现:(1)日元与人民币现阶段都无法成为区域内锚货币,两者尚未具备区域内货币竞争的条件;(2)中日两国产业结构差异和贸易互补性使得两国货币竞争没有必要;(3)货币危机和中日双边贸易发展内在地推动两国加强区域内货币合作;(4)日本对华贸易与人民币汇率之间没有长期稳定的协整关系.据此,仅从经济和金融角度考虑,推进日元与人民币区域内货币合作而非货币竞争对中日双方都是有利的.     

日元持续升值原因分析及其对人民币汇率变动的启示

实证表明,日元汇率在短期存在羊群效应,在长期存在向均值回归的趋势.通过分析日元汇率的波动特征与美国经济运行之间的关系,发现日元持续升值取决于美国经济的内外部均衡状况以及由此产生的市场预期.中国自2000年以后超过日本成为美国最大的贸易顺差国,人民币于是承受了巨大的升值压力.如果中国不能有效减少对美国的贸易顺差,那么人民币面临的升值压力可能是持久的.     

Efficiency of two-step estimators for censored systems of equations: Shonkwiler and Yen reconsidered

This study analyses a parametric estimator for a system of equations with limited dependent variables that was recently proposed. Its performance is compared with those of alternative estimation procedures using Monte Carlo methods. The comparison shows that this new estimator is less efficient for a wide range of parameter regions than multivariate generalizations of the classical Heckman model. This result can be explained by its variance depending on the squared conditional mean of the dependent variables. Additionally, it turns out that within the class of generalized Heckman estimators, rather simple ones display the best performance.     

外商投资与中国经济发展──产业和区域分析证据

本文将有关外商直接投资影响的分析 ,与中国经济的特定发展模式联系起来 ,从中得出两项分析结果。一是在产业发展层面 ,外商投资确实有助于改进资源配置效率 ,然而这种贡献却是以妨碍生产效率改进为代价的 ;二是在区域发展层面 ,以进口替代加资本深化为特征的“上海模式” ,在促进地区和全国经济发展方面 ,确实优于以出口导向加劳动密集为特征的“广东模式” ,只是前一模式本身存在着严重的可持续性问题     

Assessing the impact of a wage subsidy for single parents on social assistance

Abstract This paper studies the impact of a wage subsidy program aimed at long‐term social assistance recipients in Quebec. The program closely mimics the Self‐Sufficiency Project and was implemented for a trial period of one year in 2002.We focus on the labour market transitions of the targeted population starting one year before the implementation of the program and until the end of 2005. Our results show that the duration of spells off social assistance increased, while the duration of social assistance spells decreased slightly. The response to the program varies considerably with both observed and unobserved characteristics.     

Cointegration,structural breaks and monetary fundamentals of the Dollar/Yen Exchange

This paper reexamines the empirical performance of monetary exchange rate models for the dollar/yen exchange rate. We focus on the character of a potential long-run relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals. Using monthly data from 1976:01 to 2007:12 this paper applies a novel time-varying coefficient approach which allows a distinction between breaks in the cointegration vector and instabilities in the adjustment coefficients. We are able to show that most of the observed breakpoints can be traced back to major policy changes or specific economic developments. Our findings also show that macroeconomic fundamentals do matter for the U.S. dollar/Japanese yen exchange rate, but in different ways over different periods of time.     

日元升值后日本科技投入的变化

二战后至70年代为经济高速增长时期,日本形成政府护航,企业投入为主的科技投入模式。20世纪70至90年代的日元大幅升值,使得这种模式受到冲击,为此,日本政府对科技投入进行了一些调整。本文主要对日元升值后日本科技投入的变化进行了分析和总结。     

Testing for the Presence of a Tremble in Economic Experiments

The classical trinity of tests is used to check for the presence of a tremble in economic experiments in which the response variable is binary. A tremble is said to occur when an agent makes a decision completely at random, without regard to the values taken by the explanatory variables. The properties of the tests are discussed, and an extension of the methodology is used to test for the presence of a tremble in binary panel data from a well-known economic experiment.