中国城市居民住房支付能力研究

虽然住宅价格是由住宅市场的供给和需求决定的,但从长期来看,住宅价格应该与城市居民家庭的住房支付能力相适应.评价住房支付能力的指标有房价收入比(PIR)和住房可支付性指数(HAI),房价收入比用于判读住房价格是否合理,而住房可支付性指数能够反映家庭购买住房的还贷能力.论文通过计算2004年我国34个主要城市的房价收入比和住房可支付性指数,对我国城市居民的住房支付能力进行了城市排序.参照国外相关指标的评价标准,论文采用Pareto累计图的评价方法,得出了我国当前房价收入比和住房可支付性指数的分布区间.论文的研究成果既可作为政府调控城市住宅市场发展的依据,也可作为居民投资置业的依据.     

Impairment and negative equity in the Irish mortgage market

Amongst the many housing markets across the OECD presently experiencing difficulties, the Irish case stands out. Between 2004 and 2007, a significant house price bubble emerged in Ireland, while the real economy was enjoying persistently strong growth rates. The sharp decline in house prices post 2007 coupled with the significant increase in unemployment has generated a combination of difficulties for the Irish residential market. To date, much of the analysis and discussion of the Irish market has tended to focus on either the concept of mortgage repayment distress or potential negative equity. By examining the issue of credit default in the Irish mortgage market, we focus on the interaction between delinquency (repayment distress) and solvency (negative equity). Building on earlier work, which used the Survey on Income and Living Conditions (SILC), we marry existing estimates of repayment distress with estimates of negative equity for a representative sample of Irish households. Using copula modelling we then examine the dependence structure across the distributions of mortgage delinquency and solvency for these households. As a result, we are in a position to estimate the probability that a household experiencing repayment distress might also be in negative equity.     

A micro view on home equity withdrawal and its determinants: Evidence from Dutch households

For most households, home ownership is the largest wealth component that has become more accessible through innovation and deregulation in mortgage markets. This paper studies the factors driving home equity withdrawal (HEW) at the household level using Dutch survey data. In the Netherlands, house prices were growing fast and mortgage expenses are to a large extent tax deductible. Expectations and perceptions do seem to play an important role in HEW. Withdrawers tend to be more positive about house price developments and – although having lower income – less concerned about their future economic situation. HEW can have a significant impact on both households and the economy, with most of the equity released being reinvested in the housing sector and only a small share used to finance consumption expenditure.     

城市新就业职工住房保障问题实证研究——基于合肥市新就业职工的调查

调查表明,50%多的新就业职工住房困难。由于收入较低,新就业职工住房支付能力严重不足,30%多的新就业职工家庭缺乏租房支付能力;超过70%的新就业职工家庭缺乏购房支付能力。所以,要尽快将新就业职工纳入住房保障范围。首先,提高新就业职工收入水平,遏制住房价格过快上涨;其次,多渠道筹集住房保障资金;第三,积极创新相关配套政策,完善公共租赁住房准入和退出机制;第四,适时推出限价商品住房,利用优惠信贷政策,提高新就业职工住房支付能力。     

Slow but stable(ish) house price growth lies ahead

• ? UK house price growth is running out of steam. And with household incomes squeezed and the affordability of housing stretched, we think a prolonged period of very modest growth lies ahead. But the prospect of a crash is remote.
• ? At 2.6% in Q2 2017, annual house price growth is presently running at a four‐year low. This is a step change down from the recent peak of nearly 10% in mid‐2014 and average growth of 4% over the current economic expansion.
• ? Three developments are likely to lie behind this slowdown. The first is weak growth in households' real income, cutting the ability to save for a deposit or finance a move up the housing ladder. That said, past periods of sluggish income growth have not always been associated with low house price inflation.
• ? The second is the consequence of recent tax hikes imposed on buy‐to‐let investors and second‐home owners, which theory suggests should be capitalised in lower property prices.
• ? The third and perhaps most important reason is the increasing unaffordability of housing to an ever‐widening sub‐set of the population. The ratio of house prices to earnings is almost back at its pre‐crisis record. And the income of the average mortgage borrower is close to £60,000, more than double the average annual wage.
• ? This third factor has implications beyond price growth, suggesting both a permanently lower level of transactions and a further decline in the number of households with mortgages, continuing a trend which began at the beginning of the century.
• ? But set against these headwinds is the cushion provided by record lows for both mortgage rates and mortgage affordability. Overall, house prices are caught between a lack of traditional drivers of accelerating growth, but equally an absence of forces which have typically caused prices to fall. Hence, our expectation of a period of sluggish, but relatively stable, growth.

     

THE DYNAMICS OF UK NATIONAL AND REGIONAL HOUSE PRICES

In this paper, the Johansen cointegration technique is applied to modeling the dynamics of national and regional house prices. It is concluded that household income, real mortgage rate and housing completions are significant factors influencing house price changes at the national level. The underlying structure of the national market is investigated, showing that while price trends in some regions of the UK are strongly related by causal processes, others are relatively independent     

Economic Outlook 1991 – 1995: The London Business School with Gower Publishing: THE HOUSING MAFUCJIT IN RECESSION : A PAINFUL ADJUSTMENT TO ERM DISCIPLINE

We, together with almost every other commentator on the UK housing market, forecast a recovery of house prices and turnover during 1991. These hopes have been disappointed. This Forecast Release addresses some of the questions raised by this prolonged weakness in the housing market. Why did we, and so many others mis-judge the outlook for house prices and housing investment? Are there structural problems, especially those associated with the adjustment to the inflationary discipline of the E M, which are preventing a revival? When will recoverly take place and can there ever be a house-price boom similar to 1984–1988 again? One reason for the unanticipated weakness of the housing market is the growing problem of mortgage arrears and possessions. This can be expected to produce at least some temporary weakening of house prices as a reaction to the current volume of empty properties being put onto the market. There is a more fundamental reason for the current weakness of house prices. Unlike previous house price booms and busts, the present recession offers no relief to the hard-pressed borrower in the form of a rapid inflation of average earnings. Difficulties with mortgage repayments, for highly indebted households, are set to continue for some time. These lessons are not being lost, either on prospective purchasers who are’ being discouraged from taking out substantial mortgages in relation to their incomes, or on mortgage lenders who are being much more prudent in the setting of mortgage to- income and mortgage-to-price limits. The result is a long overdue adjustment of British attitudes towards own er-occupation.     

A panel data analysis for housing affordability in Taiwan

Although the equilibrium relationship between household income and house price is well documented in previous theoretical studies, the empirical results are usually unfavorable. This article examines whether a long-term relationship between house price and income exists through a panel integration and cointegration methodology in analyzing data from four cities in Taiwan from 1980 to 2007. The findings support the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between income and house price, which indicate that housing affordability in Taiwan is stable. After controlling other variables, the income elasticity of house prices on average is close to one. Furthermore, evidence points to a bi-directional causality between income and house price.     

UK Household Debt: A Threat to Growth or Stability?

The liberalisation of credit constraints in the 1970s for UK consumers has had important implications for the housing market and consumer spending. This paper by John Muellbauer¹ examines the factors that have driven soaring consumer debt and house price levels; in particular those observed since the mid-1990s. By relying on recent econometric evidence and trends in credit availability, real income per head, nominal and real after tax mortgage rates, measures of perceived risk and broad demographic trends, it also analyses the prospects for house prices, mortgage debt and unsecured debt over the coming years. The outlook is for a 'soft landing' in the housing market and associated declines in the rate of growth of consumer debt, which, although probably not smooth, does suggest the underlying situation is more benign and less crisis-prone than it was in 1988–89.     

主房反向抵押贷款支持老年人收入拓展

在当前全球人口老龄化趋势下,如何解决由此产生的老龄人口退休收入短缺及财政困境成为各国学者及政策制定者关注的热点。住房反向抵押贷款作为拓展老年人退休收入的一种金融创新手段,在欧美市场已经发展成为一种成熟的金融工具。随着9月国务院提出“开展老年人住房反向抵押养老保险试点”,“反向抵押贷款”模式的“以房养老”再次进入公众视野,成为当前公共政策研究热点,并引发了民众关于“政府在养老体系中责任”的大辩论。本文以此为契机,通过已有的文献构建反向抵押贷款理论框架,讨论反向抵押贷款的优缺点、风险及影响反向抵押贷款市场的相关变量,系统还原这一金融工具的运行机制,消除公众对其的误解并结合这·理论框架探讨‘‘反向抵押贷款’雀本土化过程中存在的困境。本文认为,在中国,遗产赠予动机是老年住房自有者在当前住房市场下为实现整个家庭代际福利最大化做出的“理性选择”;‘饭．向抵押贷款”中贷款金融机构面临的风险高于借款人,老年人实现住房资产的流动性是以牺牲贷款金融机构现金流动性为代价的。因此,未来需要探讨的是,政府在推进的过程中如何降低各方风险,减少未知不确定J}生风险的问题。     

Non-Mortgage Factors Affecting Housing Sales and Construction: A Case Study of Transactions in 3 Counties of Southeastern Wisconsin, 1974-78

A bstract . The surge in the sale and construction of housing in three counties of southeastern Wisconsin between 1974 and 1978 could not be readily explained in terms of the credit cost and credit availability theory, the expectation theory or affordability. A questionnaire was sent to a random sample of home buyers. Their responses showed that the main motivating factors were investment purpose, the desire for a bigger and better home, and anticipation of higher home prices. Data supported their responses as the rate of return on investment in housing (equity appreciation) was significantly higher than both the mortgage interest rate and the return on alternative investments. Although median family income lagged behind home prices , it kept pace with ownership costs. Thus, given the demand, the critical factor was affordability.     

Why Do Mortgage Markets Matter?

1999 saw the return of large scale mortgage equity - ie mortgage borrowing to finance consumption rather than house purchase - for the first time for a decade. Recent developments of the OEF macroeconometric model of the UK economy have focused on the determination of mortgage lending, looking in particular at the impact of downpayment constraints - ie the deposit borrowers have to put down when they buy a house. In this article, Geoffrey Meen uses this model to analyse the effects of mortgages on: (i) the cycle in the UK housing market at a national level; (ii) regional house price differentials; and (iii) aggregate savings and consumer behaviour.     

Evidence on the Demand for Mortgage Debt by Owner-Occupants

This paper explores the relationship between household mortgage debt burdens and housing consumption, periodic income, nonhousing wealth, the income tax position of the household, expected mobility, and other micro-level characteristics that proxy for household risk preferences and life cycle effects. We use 1985 and 1989 American Housing Survey data to estimate mortgage debt level equations simultaneous with house value equations, controlling for the contemporaneous nature of these two choices. We find that larger debt levels are positively associated with greater value residences and with the level of household income. Numerous household level demographic characteristics are also systematically related to mortgage demand. Of particular interest are our findings that the use of mortgage debt is affected significantly by the rate of tax savings on mortgage interest deductions and by the expected mobility of the household.     

房价收入比与城市居民购房支付能力实证研究——以南宁市为例

房价问题既是经济问题又是民生问题。确定房价收入比合理区间、探究居民住房支付能力对于政府制定住房政策,提高居民居住水平具有十分重要的意义。本文以南宁市为例,通过测算2006—2010年南宁市城镇居民房价收入比合理区间,研究不同收入群体对各户型住宅的购房支付能力。研究表明,南宁市居民购房支付能力呈梯级状分布,普通购房者面临购房困难、住房供给结构不合理,因此政府在调控房地产市场时要更具有针对性。     

Subprime lending and the housing bubble: Tail wags dog?

The cause of the “housing bubble” associated with the sharp rise and then drop in home prices over the period 1998–2008 has been the focus of significant policy and research attention. The dramatic increase in subprime lending during this period has been broadly blamed for these market dynamics. In this paper we empirically investigate the validity of this hypothesis vs. several other alternative explanations. A model of house price dynamics over the period 1998–2006 is specified and estimated using a cross-sectional time-series data base across 20 metropolitan areas over the period 1998–2006. Results suggest that prior to early 2004, economic fundamentals provide the primary explanation for house price dynamics. Subprime credit activity does not seem to have had much impact on subsequent house price returns at any time during the observation period, although there is strong evidence of a price-boosting effect by investor loans. However, we do find strong evidence that a credit regime shift took place in late 2003, as the GSE’s were displaced in the market by private issuers of new mortgage products. Market fundamentals became insignificant in affecting house price returns, and the price-momentum conditions characteristic of a “bubble” were created. Thus, rather than causing the run-up in house prices, the subprime market may well have been a joint product, along with house price increases, (i.e., the “tail”) of the changing institutional, political, and regulatory environment characteristic of the period after late 2003 (the “dog”).     

House price convergence in euro zone and non-euro zone countries

This study investigates whether single currency use increased house price convergence among various countries. First, the panel unit root test results indicate that the house prices in euro zone countries were more correlated than the house prices in non-euro zone countries. Second, the house prices in various European countries converged towards the house prices in Germany, which uses the single currency, rather than towards those in the United Kingdom, indicating that single currency use increased the influence of the German housing market on other markets. Finally, the log t regression model, a new convergence test, was employed and determined that the house prices in various European countries were not converging before 1992 but began to do so after that year. After the euro was implemented as an official currency, the house prices in various countries converged towards a consistent level. On the basis of the relative transition paths, this study determines that the differences among housing markets in various countries have continuously decreased since 1992. The empirical results indicate that the law of one price is applicable to tradable goods and that single currency use can integrate housing markets, which include non-tradable goods.     

Housing market dynamics: Evidence of mean reversion and downward rigidity

House prices often exhibit serial correlation and mean reversion. Using two large panel datasets, this paper analyzes the price dynamics in two significantly different types of markets, cyclical (or volatile) and non-cyclical (or tame), by applying an autoregressive mean reversion (ARMR) model. Our results show that cyclical markets have larger AR coefficients than non-cyclical markets. As a result, house prices in cyclical markets tend to have larger price cycles. We also find that the upward periods have larger AR coefficients than the downward periods. This demonstrates that house prices are likely to overshoot the equilibrium in appreciating markets while experiencing downward rigidity during periods of decline. The model developed in this paper can produce a forecast with rich house price dynamics across markets. Our results can also be used to determine how house prices in overvalued markets will ultimately adjust.     

多套住房、可支付性和政策

随着经济全球化,现代交通、通讯方式导致的人口流动性增强,富裕群体热衷于购买休闲度假和投资用途的第二住宅,多套住宅规模呈扩大趋势。多套住房可以分为转卖和暂时空置、购买后出租、自住用途第二住宅。从短期来看,在一个供求均衡的市场,第三类第二住宅的冲击会导致中低收入阶层的住房可支付能力下降,前两者不影响。供不应求市场和供求均衡市场结果一样,但影响更大。供过于求市场则没有影响。从长期来看,结论依然和短期一样。可行的政策有加强商品房和保障性住房的供应,征收物业税减少住房的空置和闲置等,并提出了改进中国多套住房政策的建议。     

Do house prices reflect fundamentals? Aggregate and panel data evidence

We investigate whether recently high and consequently rapidly decreasing U.S. house prices have been justified by fundamental factors such as personal income, population, house rent, stock market wealth, building costs, and mortgage rate. We first conduct the standard unit root and cointegration tests with aggregate data. Nationwide analysis potentially suffers from problems of the low power of stationarity tests and the ignorance of dependence among regional house markets. Therefore, we also employ panel data stationarity tests which are robust to cross-sectional dependence. Contrary to previous panel studies of the U.S. housing market, we consider several, not just one, fundamental factors. Our results confirm that panel data unit root tests have greater power as compared with univariate tests. However, the overall conclusions are the same for both methodologies. The house price does not align with the fundamentals in sub-samples prior to 1996 and from 1997 to 2006. It appears that the real estate prices take long swings from their fundamental value and it can take decades before they revert to it. The most recent correction (a collapsed bubble) occurred around 2006.     

Commodity house prices

This paper studies how commodity price movements have affected the local house prices in commodity-dependent economies, Australia and New Zealand. We build a geographically hierarchical empirical model and find that the commodity prices influence local house prices directly and also indirectly through macroeconomic variables. The impacts of commodity price changes are analogous to “income shocks” rather than “cost shocks”. Regional heterogeneity is also observed in terms of differential dynamic responses of local house prices to energy versus non-energy commodity price movements. The results are robust to alternative approaches. Directions for future research are also discussed.