产业内贸易模式下综合能源强度的影响因素研究

为了研究贸易结构对综合能源强度的影响,文章建立了产业内贸易模式下综合能源强度回归模型,通过对中国25个产业1996～2005年的面板数据分析,得出了各变量对能源强度的影响系数。研究结果发现,能源相对价格、技术变迁以及贸易开放对能源强度产生了显著的负作用,而产业内贸易比重的上升却促进了能源强度的增加。这一结果对中国政府制定合理的产业发展政策与开放政策具有很好的借鉴意义。     

Evaluating store location and department composition based on spatial heterogeneity in sales potential

In this paper, we extend a retail location evaluation model with the possibility to include the effect of department size adaptation at the store level. We relate department-level store sales to a store's competitive and demographic environment, thereby providing richer insights into the drivers of department sales than a model of just aggregate sales. Further, we accommodate heterogeneity in consumer characteristics over space by using zip code level data and unobserved spatial effects in department sales by including spatially autocorrelated error terms.Using spatial panel data for 30 clothing stores belonging to one Dutch retail chain, we demonstrate how to use the modeling approach to analyze and predict sales performance of new and existing stores. We show that the predictive performance of our model is superior to that of a benchmark model that does not include spatial autocorrelation.     

MODELLING BANKS' LENDING BEHAVIOUR IN A CAPITAL‐REGULATED FRAMEWORK

This paper adds to the literature on the money supply theory by assessing the effect of banks' equity on the loan generating process. First, a new ‘credit’ multiplier is examined, the so‐called ‘equity’ multiplier model. This, in a second stage, is incorporated in a new multivariate lending model. The models are assessed by using panel data cointegration techniques for the G7 countries. According to our results, a feedback relationship exists between banks' loans and equity. Moreover, the factors determining loans are: the aggregate demand, the loan–customer relation, the banks' equity and banks' portfolio adjustments and/or the monetary stance.     

Sectoral FDI,absorptive capacity and economic growth – empirical evidence from Egyptian governorates

Using a novel panel dataset of Egyptian governorates for the period 1992–2007, we investigate the effects of aggregate and sectoral foreign direct investment (FDI) on Egypt’s economic growth. We distinguish between FDI in the manufacturing, agriculture and service sector. The similarity of governorates in terms of institutional characteristics like culture, language and legal framework and the consistency of the data collection process enables an effective estimation of the effect of FDI on Egypt’s economic growth. Employing General Methods of Moments (GMM) panel estimations, we find that neither aggregate nor sectoral FDI has an unconditional effect on economic growth. We also reject human capital as a channel of absorptive capacity, but reveal an interesting effect of FDI in the service sector on economic growth in interaction with domestic private investment (DPI). Service FDI promotes economic growth only if the host governorate has a minimum threshold of DPI to absorb foreign knowledge and technology.     

The Factor Content of Heterogeneous Firm Trade

The present paper studies the factor content of heterogenous firm trade in the presence of market imperfections and transaction costs. The conceptual framework builds on a relative factor endowment model, which we extend to account for firm heterogeneity and transaction costs. Using a large panel of firm‐level data for the EU, we are able to examine not only the aggregate factor content of trade but also to identify differences in the factor of trade between heterogenous firms. Our empirical results suggest that because of transaction costs and market imperfections, the factor content of agricultural trade is heavily distorted in the CEE transition economies. To increase the gains of trade and the employed factor rewards, the policy should first address the transaction costs and market imperfections.     

我国原油进口依存度的国别差异分析——基于Armington模型的实证检验

本文引入Armington模型作为原油进口依存度的分析工具,运用面板数据等分析方法,对Armington弹性进行了估计。实证结果表明:总体上,我国原油进口依存度不高,且国别之间存在较大差异。大部分国家"高进口量高依存度,低进口量低依存度"的特征较为明显,但依然存在"高进口量低依存度"以及"低进口量高依存度"的现象。同时,部分国家的弹性估计值为负,呈现出"买涨不买落"的特点,本文认为这不仅是原油定价机制的问题,也是国际能源政治的集中体现。     

The Dynamics of Aid and Political Rights

Using cross‐country panel data, we explore the extent to which the variation over time in measures of democracy and political rights can be explained by changes in aid inflows, thus providing direct evidence on the impact of innovations in donor policy on the quality of recipient governance. We distinguish between the short‐run and long‐run effects of changes in aid. Our results are very different from those based on cross‐country variation in aid inflows. We find evidence of large differences between the effect of aid for political reform and the effect of other types of aid in aggregate. These effects also depend on the recipient country's initial level of political development. There is no evidence that aid intended for political reform has achieved its objective, and in some countries, it may be counterproductive. However, aggregate aid can have a beneficial effect on political rights.     

对外开放与发展中国家的收入不平等:基于亚洲和拉美国家的比较研究

本文基于要素禀赋理论,在将劳动力划分为低、中、高技能三类的基础上,选取亚洲和拉丁美洲部分发展中国家1960-2005年的数据,建立非平衡面板模型,分析两地区的开放对国内收入分配的影响。实证结果表明,亚洲和拉丁美洲发展中国家的对外开放确实对国内收入不平等起到推动作用。目前的开放有利于中等技能劳动力相对丰裕的发展中国家,而不利于低技能劳动力相对丰裕的国家。总体的贸易依存度对拉美不平等的推动作用更大,但外资对亚洲不平等的推动作用更大;制造业出口倾向于扩大拉美国家的收入差距而缩小亚洲国家的收入差距。     

FDI与我国城乡居民收入差距之间是否存在倒U形关系

本文以我国大陆1997-2006年期间的分省面板数据作为研究样本,以库兹涅茨基本模型为基础,实证分析了外商直接投资等因素对我国城乡居民收入差距的具体影响。基于面板数据的固定效应模型估计结果表明,库兹涅茨基本模型中所提到的人均GDP与城乡居民收入差距之间的倒U形关系仍显著存在。不仅如此,外商直接投资与城乡居民收入差距之间也存在着显著的倒U形关系,并且我国现阶段正位于该曲线的左半部区间。因此,如果外资利用结构等方面继续保持不变,那么在未来的很长一段时期内,我国FDI依存度的上升都会进一步恶化我国城乡居民收入差距。     

Empirical asymmetries in foreign direct investment and taxation

This paper assesses the sensitivity of the operations of multinational corporations (MNCs) to host country taxation. The empirical analysis is based on two different measures of MNC activity by U.S. majority-owned foreign affiliates: panel data for aggregate real gross product in manufacturing that originates in a given host country and micro data for a single year regarding the likelihood of a firm locating in a given host country. The empirical estimates indicate that investment geared toward export markets, rather than the domestic market, is particularly sensitive to host country taxation, that this sensitivity appears to be greater in developing countries than developed countries, and that it is becoming greater over time.     

Accounting for persistence and volatility of good-level real exchange rates: The role of sticky information

Volatile and persistent real exchange rates are observed not only in aggregate series but also in micro-price data at the retail level. Kehoe and Midrigan (2007) recently showed that, under a standard assumption on nominal price stickiness, empirical frequencies of micro price adjustment cannot replicate the time series properties of the Law of One Price (LOP) deviations. We extend their sticky price model by combining good-specific price adjustment with information stickiness in the sense of Mankiw and Reis (2002). Our framework allows for multiple cities within a country. Using a panel of U.S.-Canadian city pairs, we estimate a dynamic price adjustment process for 165 individual goods. Under a reasonable assumption on the money growth process, we show that the model matches the persistence of the LOP deviation for the median good and accounts for the majority of its volatility when information updates occur every 12 months.     

The volatility effect of diaspora's location

Remittances can transmit volatility from host to home countries for some common patterns of diaspora's geographical distribution. In a migration portfolio model, the overall risk of volatility of any set of diaspora location is decomposed into a contagion and a concentration risks: a diaspora located in more volatile destinations induces a higher contagion risk, while a diaspora located in few destination countries increases the concentration risk. A series of estimations on a large panel of developing countries over 1995–2015 provide evidence for these two risks. Estimation of a structural model confirms that the geography of diaspora has an indirect impact on the origin country's aggregate instability through remittances.     

我国对外贸易、FDI与环境污染之间关系的研究:1995-2005

本文通过对面板数据的分析发现,FDI有利于我国环境质量的改善,而对外贸易则恶化了我国环境,发达国家通过对外贸易向我国转嫁污染,"污染避难所"假说在我国得到证实。通过对比分析时间序列模型和面板数据模型得出:我国的环境污染与人均GDP之间呈现出正"U"形关系,不符合EKC假说,但是面板数据选择的样本符合EKC假说。以上结论与之前的大量实证研究结果不一致,本文给出了合理解释,并提出了相应的政策建议。     

Factor allocation,economic growth and unbalanced regional development in China

On the basis of development accounting techniques and a factor misallocation framework, we use panel data of 30 Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2013 to assess how factor allocation affects economic growth and unbalanced regional development in China. In particular, we decompose economic growth into three parts, namely sector productivity (SP ), factor market efficiency (FME ) and factor endowment (FE ). We then conduct counterfactual analyses to investigate the short and long‐run roles of factor allocation in the income distribution across provinces. The results show that SP , FME and FE can explain 23%, 8.5% and 68.5% of economic growth, while labour, capital and energy reallocation account for aggregate productivity growth of about 47%, −4.8% and −0.1%. Furthermore, when the factors are efficiently allocated, transferring labour (capital, energy) from agriculture (service, industry) to the other sectors will increase the income per capita by 29.5% and 42.5% in the short and long term. Meanwhile, efficient factor allocation accounts for 32% and 29.7% of aggregate productivity and reduces the income variation across provinces by 25.5% and 23% in the short and long run, respectively.     

入境旅游发展与经济增长的非线性关系——基于门限面板数据模型的实证研究

文章应用门限面板数据模型,采用1997-2007年我国31个省、市、自治区的数据对我国经济增长与入境旅游业发展之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明入境旅游发展与经济增长之间存在门限效应,即入境旅游收入占GDP的百分比低于2.36%时,入境旅游业的发展对地区经济增长的促进作用并不显著;当该比例高于2.36%时,入境旅游业的发展对地区经济增长有显著促进作用。同时,研究结果表明处于两种状态下的地区其经济增长均不具有条件收敛性,入境旅游发展缩小区域差异的作用没有得到验证。     

习惯形成、不确定性、流动性约束与居民消费——基于省际动态面板数据的实证分析

文章利用1998-2008年的城乡省际面板数据,建立包含习惯形成、不确定性和流动性约束在内的动态面板模型并对其进行实证分析.实证分析的结果表明习惯形成对于城乡居民的消费具有显著性影响;不确定性对于城镇居民的消费增长具有显著的影响,对于农村居民的影响不显著;城乡居民的消费具有过度敏感性;城镇居民的实证结果支持"前景理论",不支持流动性约束理论,农村居民的实证结果支持"短视行为"理论.     

中国对外直接投资的贸易效应研究——基于面板数据的协整分析

本文使用2000—2006年我国对50个国家或地区直接投资和进出口的面板数据,运用面板协整模型和面板误差修正模型,对我国对外直接投资的长短期贸易效应进行了检验。研究结果显示:(1)中国对外直接投资与中国出口及进口均存在长期协整关系,在长期,中国对外直接投资对中国进出口的拉动作用相当大。(2)在短期,我国对外直接投资与出口及进口的长期稳定(协整)关系,对短期的出口及进口的抑制(调节)作用并不显著,对短期的对外直接投资具有显著的正向调节效应。本文还进一步讨论了这些结果的深层次原因以及相应的政策启示。     

The Post-Promotion Dip Puzzle: What do the Data Have to Say?

One of the puzzles of store-level scanner data is the lack of a dip in quantity sold in the weeks following a promotion. Such a dip is predicted by a consumer inventory model. During a promotion consumers buy more, not only for current consumption, but stockpile for future consumption. The predictions of such a model have been confirmed by household-level data yet seem harder to find in aggregate brand- or category-level data. We re-examine this puzzle and reach two conclusions. First, the effects at the household-level are present, but are much smaller than previously found. Our estimates are different because we control for household heterogeneity in a more general way than most previous work. This suggests that since the effects are small they might be harder to spot in aggregate data. Second, we show that the dip is present in the aggregate data, once we control for additional promotional activity, like feature and display. The latter has an opposing dynamic effect that masks the existence of the post-promotion dip.     

Measuring the road safety performance of Iranian provinces: a double-frontier DEA model and evidential reasoning approach

Abstract

Road traffic accidents are critical public issue in developing countries, and they annually waste a significant amount of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In order to urgently consider how this problem is related to the current policies, a proper safety evaluation of regional programmes in crash reduction is fundamental to the governments. The current research aims to employ a double-frontier Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model to assess the productivity of Iranian regional safety programmes in reducing the number of road fatalities. The safety efficiencies of Iranian provinces are simultaneously estimated using the double frontier DEA to reflect both the optimistic and pessimistic points of view. Then, the Evidential Reasoning (ER) approach is applied to aggregate the obtained efficiency values. These provinces are ranked based on the data panel for 2014–2016. Finally, a double-frontier Malmquist productivity index (MPI) is used to comprehensively measure the safety performance of Iranian roads over a period of time.     

Modeling the correct level of analysis in non-aggregated household panel data: A simulation approach

Multilevel models can deal with nested structures in household panel data to derive unbiased regression coefficients and standard errors for predictors from multiple hierarchical levels, e.g., households, products, or stores. Within the framework of multilevel modeling, researchers can apply purely nested models or cross-classified random effects models (CCREM). This paper explains the partially cross-classified structure in household panel data. Simulation study 1 demonstrates that standard errors for level-two predictors are severely downward biased when applying a nested three-level model to partially crossed data. Furthermore, the hierarchical location of interactions between predictors associated with two crossed levels is explained. Simulation study 2 demonstrates that with unbalanced real-world data, both standard errors and regression coefficients for interaction-level predictors can be biased when the “artificial” random interaction level is omitted from a CCREM. The simulation studies are followed by a discussion of implications for the application of multilevel models to household panel data.