Evaluation of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: evidence from the Euro Area and United States

Empirical relevance of inflation expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) is highly controversial in the macroeconomics literature. With this in mind, this article evaluates the purely forward-looking NKPC useful for policy analysis with respect to their abilities to account for the dynamic relationship between output and inflation. Our findings show that the NKPC heavily relying on firms’ forward-looking behaviour is hardly supported by the Euro Area and the US data. The failure of the NKPC in matching the data is consistently observed across the sub-samples divided before and after the early 1980s. For comparison, we also investigate the performance of the hybrid NKPC and the traditional backward-looking Phillips curve associated with ad hoc price indexation assumptions.     

Output,Inflation and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve

Explicit modelling of factor markets clarifies two fundamental aspects of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC). First, we clarify the relationship between output and marginal cost. Second, for the NKPC in inflation–output space, we identify the key stochastic influences on inflation without recourse to ad hoc cost or excess demand shocks. The econometric implementation of this clarified NKPC, which evolves strictly according news on the stream of future marginal costs, allows us jointly to derive inflation as a forecast of future variables. Our approach clarifies the empirical successes and failures of the NKPC and allows us to provide new aggregate evidence on the degree of price rigidity in the UK economy.     

The empirical validity of the New Keynesian Phillips curve using survey forecasts of inflation

This paper investigates the performance of the New Keynesian Phillips curve when survey forecasts of inflation are used to proxy for inflation expectations. Previous authors such as Brissimis and Magginas (2008) have applied survey measures of inflation expectations to the NKPC, and have concluded that these estimates are superior to those estimated using actual data on future inflation. However this approach employs the use of the labor income share as the proxy for real marginal cost, something which is highly problematic once we consider the countercyclicality of this variable. This paper develops and tests a procyclical marginal cost variable alongside various survey measures of inflation forecasts in the NKPC, while recognizing the problem of weak instruments that occurs when estimating the model using conventional GMM. We find that the NKPC produces a counter-intuitive negative and significant coefficient on procyclical marginal cost when surveys of inflation forecasts are used, which casts serious doubt on the empirical viability of the NKPC model, even when estimated with survey inflation forecasts.     

INFLATION IN CHINA: MODELLING A ROLLER COASTER RIDE

Abstract.  The New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) posits the dynamics of inflation as forward looking and related to marginal costs. In this paper we examine the empirical relevance of the NKPC for China. The empirical results indicate that an augmented (hybrid) NKPC gives results that are consistent with the data generating process. It is in this respect that the NKPC provides useful insights into the nature of inflation dynamics in China as well as useful insights for the conduct of monetary policy.     

New Keynesian Phillips Curve and inflation dynamics in Australia

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) was developed as a response to the New Classical critique that Keynesian macroeconomics lacked micro-foundations. The NKPC provides theoretical micro-foundations that attempt to explain, inter alia, nominal rigidities and, explicitly price stickiness. This paper investigates the validity of the NKPC for Australia. In contrast to the findings for the USA and Euro area, we find that neither the output gap nor marginal cost appears to be a key driving force variable across different set of instruments and estimators (GMM and 2SLS) over the sample period from 1959 to 2009. The flattening of the NKPC along with significant presence of price stickiness is also found in the data. In particular, the reduced form coefficients and implied estimates from the structural parameters of the model support the view that inflation dynamics are forward looking while the role of lagged inflation is also statistically important only after 1980s. However, we claim that the forward looking baseline NKPC contrary to the hybrid NKPC is stable and better explains inflation dynamics for the Australian economy.     

Product market regulation,trend inflation and inflation dynamics in the new Keynesian Phillips curve

In this empirical paper, we take a close look at the impact of the observed decline in the product market regulation, and hence in the barriers to entry and in impediments to competition, on inflation dynamics since the early 1980s.We use an enlarged new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) allowing for entry of firms and increasing competitive pressures with the number of firms and non zero trend inflation.Using OECD indicators on product market regulations, characterized by persistent fluctuations, and taking into account the non stationary properties of the inflation process, we investigate the empirical relevance of this NKPC for inflation dynamics in the US and France, assuming VAR expectations. The results point out that product market regulation is a good candidate as an exogenous structural source of the observed persistence in inflation for the past thirty years in both the US and France.     

Inflation Dynamics in the New EU Member States: How Relevant Are External Factors?

In this paper we evaluate the relative influence of external versus domestic inflation drivers in the 12 new European Union (EU) member countries. Our empirical analysis is based on the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) derived in Galí and Monacelli (2005 ) for small open economies (SOE). Employing the generalized method of moments (GMM), we find that the SOE NKPC is well supported in the new EU member states. We also find that the inflation process is dominated by domestic variables in the larger countries of our sample, whereas external variables are mostly relevant in the smaller countries.     

Forecasting Canadian inflation: A semi-structural NKPC approach

We examine whether alternative versions of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve equation contain useful information for forecasting the inflation process. We notably consider semi-structural specifications which combine, for closed- and open-economy versions of the model, the structural New Keynesian equation with time series features. Estimation and inference are conducted using identification-robust methods to address the concern that NKPC models are generally weakly identified. Applications using Canadian data show that all the considered versions of the NKPC have a forecasting performance that comfortably exceeds that of a random walk equation, and moreover, that some NKPC versions also significantly outperform forecasts from conventional time series models. We conclude that relying on single-equation structural models such as the NKPC is a viable option for policymakers for the purposes of both forecasting and being able to explain to the public structural factors underlying those forecasts.     

Reconciling microeconomic and macroeconomic estimates of price stickiness

This paper attempts to reconcile the high estimates of price stickiness from macroeconomic estimates of a New-Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) with the lower values obtained from surveys of firms’ pricing behaviour. This microeconomic evidence also suggests that the frequency with which firms adjust their prices varies across sectors. Building on the insights of Carvalho (2006), we present Monte Carlo evidence that suggests that in the presence of this heterogeneity estimates of the NKPC obtained using conventional methods, such as GMM, are likely to considerably overstate the degree of aggregate price stickiness. Furthermore, if roundabout production is a characteristic of the economy the NKPC will falsely suggest that a sizeable fraction of prices are indexed to past inflation. These problems arise because of a type of misspecification and a lack of suitable instruments.     

Inflation dynamics in open economies: Empirical evidence for G7 countries on the role of import prices and the cost channel

The supply side effects of both the nominal interest rate (i.e., the cost channel) and import prices on inflation are very important for the design of monetary policy. However, the empirical identification of the cost channel (traditionally associated with the advance payment of wages) has ignored import prices. We start by deducting a New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) which shows that ignoring import prices in the estimation of the cost channel may lead to incorrect results. Taking this into account, we study the empirical relevance of the cost channel and import prices using the NKPC for the G7 countries. We test whether the estimation of the cost channel is affected when the price of imported inputs is considered; if it is relevant to extend the cost channel given that imports of final consumption goods are also paid in advance; if imports should be treated as inputs and/or consumption goods, and if there is an immediate or slow exchange rate pass-through. Empirical results indicate that the cost channel is present in imported consumption goods in particular, and import prices play an important role in explaining inflation dynamics.     

Does a threshold inflation rate exist? Quantile inferences for inflation and its variability

Using quantile regressions and cross-sectional data from 152 countries, we examine the relationship between inflation and its variability. We consider two measures of inflation—the mean and median—and three different measures of inflation variability—the standard deviation, relative variation, and median deviation. All results from the mean and standard deviation, the mean and relative variation, or the median and the median deviation support both the hypothesis that higher inflation creates more inflation variability and that inflation variability raises inflation across quantiles. Moreover, higher quantiles in both cases lead to larger marginal effects of inflation (inflation variability) on inflation variability (inflation). We particularly consider whether thresholds for inflation rate or inflation variability exist before finding such positive correlations. We find evidence of thresholds for the effect of inflation (inflation variability) on inflation variability (inflation). That is, for low inflation (inflation variability) countries, inflation (inflation variability) does not affect inflation variability (inflation).     

How credible is inflation targeting in Asia? A quantile unit root perspective

This article examines the dynamic behavior of the inflation rate for eight Asian countries using a quantile unit root test. We advocate a three-way definition of inflation targeting based on perfect, imperfect and zero credibility and advance the analysis by incorporating a fully-fledged adoption of inflation targeting. In doing so, we offer new insights by showing that the credibility of inflation targeting and the alternative monetary policy frameworks in Asia are imperfect, except for Malaysia and South Korea under a fully-fledged adoption of inflation targeting. In contrast to past studies that focus on the mean-reversion in inflation rates, we also consider trend-reversion and find that Asian inflation targeting countries have been building up their monetary policy credibility more than the non- inflation targeting countries in terms of a faster rate of decline in inflation rate changes. Our results generally indicate the presence of mean reversion at the lower quantiles only. Where stationarity is present, we find evidence of a varied speed of adjustment process across the quantiles. Finally, we determine the threshold levels whereby inflation becomes stationary and demonstrate that Asian inflation rates generally display stationary behavior during periods of inflation declining or slowing down.     

Firm-specific capital,inflation persistence and the sources of business cycles

This paper estimates a firm-specific capital DSGE model. Firm-specific capital improves the fit of DSGE models to the data (as shown by a large increase in the value of the log marginal likelihood). This results from a lower implied estimate of the NKPC slope for a given degree of price stickiness. Firm-specific capital leads to a better fit to the volatilities of macro variables and a greater persistence of inflation. It is also shown that firm-specific capital reduces the dependence of New Keynesian models on price markup shocks and that it increases the persistence of output to monetary shocks.     

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Inflation Expectations: Re-Specification and Interpretation

A theoretical analysis of the new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) is provided, formulating the conditions under which the NKPC coincides with a real-world relation that is not spurious or misspecified. A time-varying-coefficient (TVC) model, involving only observed variables, is shown to exactly represent the underlying “true” NKPC under certain conditions. In contrast, “hybrid” NKPC models, which add lagged-inflation and supply-shock variables, are shown to be spurious and misspecified. We also show how to empirically implement the NKPC under the assumption that expectations are formed rationally. We are grateful to C. D. Aliprantis, Harris Dellas and Arnold Zellner for helpful comments. The questions and comments of an anonymous referee were extremely stimulating. The views expressed are the authors’ own and do not constitute policy of their respective institutions.     

Asymmetric inflation dynamics: Evidence from quantile regression analysis

This paper applies the regression quantile approach developed by Koenker and Xiao (2004) to investigate the dynamic behavior of inflation in 12 OECD countries. By analyzing the behavior in a wide range of quantiles, this method allows us to quantify the influence of various sizes of shocks that hit the inflation, and is able to capture possible asymmetric adjustment of the inflation towards to its long-run equilibrium. It therefore sheds new lights on the inflation dynamics compared with the conventional unit root methodologies. Our results suggest that generally, the inflation rates are not only mean-reverting but also exhibit asymmetries in their dynamic adjustments, in which large negative shocks tend to induce strong mean reversion, and on the contrary, large positive shocks do not. Policy implications related to the empirical findings are also provided.     

Does the New Keynesian Phillips curve need countercyclical markups?

This paper examines the behavior of four types of markup measures and its implications for the new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC). The four types of measures are a procyclical measure, a weakly procyclical measure, an acyclical measure and a countercyclical measure. Motivated by the fact that the U.S. markup has shifted up dramatically since the early 2000s, the paper also presents both empirical dynamics and a new Keynesian model featuring nonstationary markups. After inspecting empirical dynamics of key macroeconomic variables and the performance of the model, it points out that weakly procyclical or acyclical markups are more consistent with the purely forward-looking NKPC. Moreover, a major shortcoming of standard new Keynesian models is their inability to trace the actual behavior of the markup in response to a demand shock.     

Investor sentiment and the prediction of stock returns: a quantile regression approach

We employ quantile regression to provide a detailed picture of the stock return forecasting ability of investor sentiment. We find that investor sentiment predicts aggregate stock returns at lower quantiles. However, the forecasting power is lost at upper quantiles. The results are robust after controlling for a comprehensive set of macroeconomic and financial predictors and for characteristic portfolios. We also show that investor sentiment consists mainly of cash flow news and contains little information about discount rate news. The ability to forecast cash flows increases gradually from the lower quantiles to upper quantiles. Our results do not support that the ability of investor sentiment to predict stock returns comes from a rational forecast of future cash flows.     

A Quantile Regression Analysis of Wages in Panama

Differences in the effects of worker characteristics on wages in Panama at different points of the conditional wage distribution are investigated. Public sector employment increases wages relatively more at lower quantiles. Within the public sector, employment in that sector increases wages of the median worker and reduces wage inequality. Presence of a labor union increases relatively more private sector wages at lower quantiles. Unions reduce wage inequality within the union private sector and increase average wages within that sector. In the public sector, the presence of a labor union increases wages of men at lower quantiles at a lower rate than in the private sector. Self-employment decreases wages at lower quantiles and increases wages at higher quantiles. Urban location affects wages in a U-shaped pattern as one moves from lower to higher quantiles. Rates of return to experience are higher for men at higher quantiles. Experience increases men's wage inequality.     

The impact of income,economic openness and interest rates on housing prices in China: evidence from dynamic panel quantile regression

The rapid growth of housing prices has attracted the attention of the whole of society in China. This article adopts the dynamic panel quantile regression to investigate the impact of income, economic openness and interest rates on housing prices in China, based on the panel data of 35 major cities from 2002 to 2012. Compared with previous studies, we can more precisely and reasonably discuss the impact of these variables on different levels of housing prices. The empirical results indicate that the impact of independent variables on housing prices is heterogeneous across quantiles. Specifically, the impact of income is positive and significant across quantiles, and the impact becomes greater at the 90th and 95th quantiles. Economic openness has a positive and significant effect at the 5th–80th quantiles, which support the Balassa–Samuelson effect, but it is insignificant at the 90th and 95th quantiles. The impact of interest rates is positive and significant at low quantiles, but the impact is negative and insignificant at high quantiles. Furthermore, we also find that the coefficients of interest rates at various quantiles are smaller. In addition, the population has a significant positive effect across quantiles. Finally, we provide important policy implications.