不确定条件下环境政策的时机选择

本文建立了一个连续时间模型，用于分析不确定条件下环境政策的时机选择。模型结果显示，环境政策的采用有两种不可逆性，而且它们在相反的方向上起作用：第一，旨在降低生态危害的政策对社会施加了沉淀成本。它产生立即采用这一政策而不是等待有关生态影响及其经济后果的更多信息的机会成本，这种机会成本使等待而不是现在就采纳政策更可取；第二，环境危害可能部分或完全不可逆。这就意味着立即采用一项政策而不是等待具有沉没收益，即负的机会成本。这种负的机会成本偏离了政策采用中传统的成本一收益分析。因此，现在立即采用一项政策可能是更合适的，即使传统的分析宣称它是不经济的。文章表明，不确定性对环境政策的时机选择有着重要的影响。     

Robustness as a corporate objective under uncertainty

This paper examines the nature of the objective function of the firm when operating under conditions of uncertainty. Robustness is presented as a purposeful maximand for decision making both under conditions of certainty and uncertainty - a robust decision being one in which the decision maker retains the maximum flexibility with regard to future decisions after an initial decision has been made. Its incorporation within a managerial objective function provides a measurable scale for making choices between alternative courses of action, including under conditions of internal organizational conflict and environmental reaction by other decision makers.     

Choosing strategic responses to address emerging environmental regulations: size,perceived influence and uncertainty

How companies respond to impending regulations is a significant aspect of corporate strategy. Regulations, especially environmental regulations, are expanding quickly and increasingly important to firm success. The threat of impending environmental regulation forces companies to choose levels of strategic responses on a continuum from passive to active. Using practitioner oriented research and existing theoretical models of corporate response, this study finds that the type of strategic response is negatively related to size, positively related to state uncertainty and negatively related to effect/response uncertainty. Based on existing literature and the results of this study, the paper suggests that simplifying the uncertainty construct could lead to more definitive findings in future research. The study results also suggest that a curvilinear relationship may exist between managerial perception of influence and level of strategic response. Most importantly, the findings could have a significant impact on firm decision making regarding environmental investments. For example, it is hoped that firms will be able to use the findings of this study to further understand and anticipate their competitors' decisions. Practitioners may also benefit from the conclusions on uncertainty in that they may be able to more cleanly parse the types of uncertainty immersed in impending environmental regulations. Finally, firms may be better able to understand decisions by their own managers and their competitors' managers in terms of their perceived influence over the regulatory process. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

Landlords, tenants and the public sector in a spatial equilibrium model of rent control

A spatial model is used to explore the effects of urban rent control. When landlords and tenants can alter economic and location decisions, policy effects in controlled and uncontrolled zones may differ from standard predictions. Tenants in both zones may benefit from the control, even after unfavorable landlord adjustments, but these gains are likely to come at the expense of landlords and the public sector. Efforts to restore profits and fiscal balance, without negating utility gains to renters, may fail unless control distortions can be adequately shifted to absentee landowners through lower site rents. Lump-sum renter subsidies may offer equivalent utility gains with less severe impacts on landlords and the public sector, but the supply elasticity of land again matters.     

Influences on Sustainable Innovation Adoption: Evidence from Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design

The adoption of innovations associated with environmental sustainability has been a topic of growing interest among scholars. The research presented in this paper draws on Abrahamson's theoretical framework of fads and fashions to argue that dimensions of uncertainty and degree of external versus internal influence provide significant insights into firms' decisions to adopt sustainable building innovations. We develop three hypotheses, reflecting three views of adoption influence: fad, fashion, and efficient‐choice. We find that adoption of Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) green building certification in the United States was more likely among firms similarly oriented toward end‐consumers and among firms strategically positioned as environmental leaders. These results provide support for the fad and efficient‐choice views of adoption, respectively. Contrary to expectations suggested by the fashion perspective, adoption was not more likely among firms located in states whose political leaders are more committed to environmental protection. Our findings offer important implications for practitioners and policy makers seeking to encourage sustainable building design. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

Optimal capital accumulation under price uncertainty and costly reversibility

We consider the optimal capital accumulation policy of a competitive firm operating in the presence of decreasing returns to scale, price uncertainty, and costly reversibility of investment. We characterize the optimal accumulation policy and derive the value of the firm by focusing on the marginal investment decision and solving the associated optimal timing problem characterizing the option value of the associated opportunity to either disinvest or acquire a marginal unit of capacity. We also characterize the required exercise premia associated with the optimal policies and demonstrate that hysteresis prevails within this class of accumulation problems as well.     

Exploring the enablers and inhibitors of electric vehicle adoption intention from sellers' perspective in India: A view of the dual‐factor model

The electric vehicle (EV) is a crucial innovation with the potential to lower greenhouse gas emissions and help reduce the causes of climate change. Despite their multiple benefits, EVs are selling lower numbers than would be expected, seeming to require more positive intent from their sellers to increase the pace of EV adoption. Hence, this study explores the enablers and inhibitors of EV adoption intention from the sellers' perspective using a dual‐factor model. The extended theory of planned behavior has been used to explore the enablers, whereas the status quo bias theory has been used to explore the inhibitors of EV adoption. The results indicate that attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioral control, environmental concern, and perceived corporate social responsibility obligation have significant positive impacts on intention to adopt EVs. However, regret avoidance, inertia, perceived threat, and perceived value have significant impacts on the resistance to adopt EVs. This study enriches the literature related to intention and resistance to adopt green technology and also provides several suggestions to marketers for increasing the pace of EV adoption.     

Time-frequency connectedness of crude oil,economic policy uncertainty and Chinese commodity markets: Evidence from rolling window analysis

This article investigates the time–frequency connectedness of economic policy uncertainty (EPU), WTI crude oil and Chinese commodity markets during the period between 2004 and 2020. Rolling window wavelet vector autoregression and connectedness networks are developed to evaluate the time-varying characteristics of the connectedness. The empirical results are as follows: First, the total connectedness between EPU, oil and commodities becomes stronger as the time scale increases. Second, the net connectedness of EPU and WTI in the system is positive, indicating that EPU and WTI are contributors to information and will affect financial markets across time scales. Third, the connectedness remains at a high level during financial crises across all scales, and the contribution of EPU and crude oil to commodities increases significantly. Specifically, compared with other commodity sectors, grains are greatly affected by EPU under the condition that the energy sector is seriously affected by crude oil. Overall, investors and policy makers should consider connectedness in terms of time and frequency when making a decision.     

Evidence of irreversibility in the UK property market

The real options approach to valuation of property investment suggests that various sources of uncertainty about future returns on investment have important effects on irreversible property investment decisions. Our aim in this study has been to examine how investment decisions at three main stages of the property development/investment processes respond to different sources of uncertainty. Based on the methodology developed by Episcopos (1995), the neo-classical proposition of Hartman-Abel that predicts a positive investment-uncertainty relationship is tested against that proposed by the real option theory. It is interesting to note that our empirical findings are generally consistent with the prediction of the real option theory that uncertainty increases the option value to wait for the arrival of new information thus decreasing the current investment activities. In periods of high volatility, we would expect investors in the property market to be more prudent and scale down their investment exposure to market volatility compared with periods of a relatively stable market environment.     

Forecasting and uncertainty in the economic and business world

Forecasts are crucial for practically all economic and business decisions. However, there is a mounting body of empirical evidence showing that accurate forecasting in the economic and business world is usually not possible. In addition, there is huge uncertainty, as practically all economic and business activities are subject to events we are unable to predict. The fact that forecasts can be inaccurate creates a serious dilemma for decision and policy makers. On the one hand, accepting the limits of forecasting accuracy implies being unable to assess the correctness of decisions and the surrounding uncertainty. On the other hand, believing that accurate forecasts are possible means succumbing to the illusion of control and experiencing surprises, often with negative consequences. We believe that the time has come for a new attitude towards dealing with the future. In this article, we discuss the limited predictability in the economic and business environment. We also provide a framework that allows decision and policy makers to face the future — despite the inherent limitations of forecasting and the uncertainty, sometimes huge, surrounding most future-oriented decisions.     

Firms’ Response to Climate Change: The Interplay of Business Uncertainty and Organizational Capabilities

With climate change emerging as one of the most important issues increasing uncertainty in the business circle, firms have shown different reactions. Why do firms differ in adopting and implementing carbon management practices (CMPs) in response to the global warming issue? This paper attempts to explore this question with particular attention to two factors: external business uncertainty and internal organizational capabilities. This study investigated whether business uncertainty, organizational learning and lean production capabilities influenced the adoption and implementation of CMPs as well as examining how organizational capabilities moderate the relationships between business uncertainty and the level of CMPs. The results of a cross‐sectional survey and hierarchical regression analyses indicate that perceived business uncertainty decreases the adoption of CMPs, organizational learning and lean production capabilities strongly facilitate the adoption and implementation of CMPs, and lean production capability positively moderates the impacts of business uncertainty on the adoption of CMPs. This study provides guidance for managers and academics considering how to identify, design and manage the dimensions of a firm's practices in response to the global warming issue within the organization as well as with other organizations. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

A network of options: Evaluating complex interdependent decisions under uncertainty

The present article provides a novel framework for analyzing option network problems, which is a general class of compound real option problems with an arbitrary combination of reversible and irreversible decisions. The present framework represents the interdependent structure of decisions by using a directed graph. In this framework, the option network problem is formulated as a singular stochastic control problem, whose optimality condition is then obtained as a dynamical system of generalized linear complementarity problems (GLCPs). This enables us to develop a systematic and efficient numerical method for evaluating the option value and the optimal decision policy.     

Perceived and actual option values of college enrollment

An important feature of postsecondary schooling is the experimentation that accompanies sequential decision making. Specifically, by entering college, a student gains the option to decide at a future time whether it is optimal to remain in college or to drop out, after resolving uncertainty that existed at entrance about factors that affect the return to college. This paper uses data from the Berea Panel Study to quantify the value of this option. The unique nature of the data allows us to make a distinction between “actual” option values and “perceived” option values and to examine the accuracy of students' perceptions.     

Optimum location and the theory of the firm under demand uncertainty

This paper presents a formal mathematical model to investigate the theoretical impacts and implications of demand uncertainty on the optimum location decisions of the firm in linear space. It will be shown that the results and implications of optimum location under uncertainty will be different from that applicable to the state of certainty.     

Risk, uncertainty, and option exercise

Many economic decisions can be described as an option exercise or optimal stopping problem under uncertainty. Motivated by experimental evidence such as the Ellsberg Paradox, we follow Knight (1921) and distinguish risk from uncertainty. To capture this distinction, we adopt the multiple-priors utility model. We show that the impact of ambiguity on the option exercise decision depends on the relative degrees of ambiguity about continuation payoffs and termination payoffs. Consequently, ambiguity may accelerate or delay option exercise. We apply our results to investment and exit problems, and show that the myopic NPV rule can be optimal for an agent having an extremely high degree of ambiguity aversion.     

Perceived Environmental Uncertainty: The Extension of Miller's Scale to the Natural Environment

Large businesses are professionalizing their approach to environmental management, in pursuit of quality management, cost effective eco-efficiency and regulatory compliance. However, recent evidence suggests that business corporations are not integrating the natural environment into their strategic thinking. One of the major reasons for this is the contingent relationship between perceived uncertainty in the business environment and strategic decision making. This paper describes the development and testing of a Perceived Environmental Uncertainty (PEU) measurement scale for the natural environment. The new PEU scale is based on Miller's (1993) PEU scale for the commercial environment and grounded in the environmental management theory. It is also shown to possess very good reliability and dimensionality. The new PEU scale was applied in the form of self-report questionnaire. Respondents were senior executives (n = 198) from the UK textile industry. We specifically looked for variations in levels of executives' PEU along the industry supply chain. As a result of applying the new scale, our findings show that the natural environment presents significantly higher levels of PEU for executives in the textile making-up/retail sector. The major cause of uncertainty for the textile making-up/retail sector is that firms in this sector are at the end of the supply chain and therefore exposed to up-stream risk, which is often very difficult to manage.     

实时财务报告技术采纳与资本成本——基于“创新接受”视角的理论模

在资本市场中,公司与其对手为获得更低的资本成本展开竞争。为了达成目标,公司都尝试采用新的信息技术来提高信息披露的透明度。扩展组织"创新接受"理论的内容并整合影响实时财务报告技术采纳和资本成本的主要因素,利用数学模型建构两者之间的约束关系,结果发现,资本成本的节省、不确定性、风险规避、交易、转换成本以及公司治理政策等都对公司何时以及是否采纳实时财务报告技术产生影响。     

Statistical methods for some simple disclosure limitation rules

To guard the confidentiality of information provided by respondents, statistical offices apply disclosure limitation techniques. An often applied technique is to ensure that there are no categories for which the population frequency is presumed to be small (‘rare’ categories). This is attained by recoding, top-coding or setting values to ‘unknown’. Since population frequencies are usually not available, the decision that a category is rare is often based on intuitive considerations. This is a time consuming process, involving many decisions of the disclosure limitation practitioners. In this paper it will be explored to what extent the sample frequencies can be used to make such decisions. This leads to a procedure which enables to automatically scan a data set for rare category combinations, whereby ‘rare’ is defined by the disclosure limitation policy of the statistical office.     

Differentiating weak ties and strong ties among external sources of influences for enterprise resource planning (ERP) adoption

Enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems represent a major IT adoption decision. ERP adoption decisions, in the chemicals and allied products sectors, were examined between 1994 and 2005. Networks of strong ties and weak ties partners are investigated. Results show that neighbouring companies linked with strong ties can have an influence on organisations making such adoption decision. Past decisions made by major trading partners have a significant influence on the decision to adopt an ERP system for a given organisation. This reflects the complex nature of the knowledge required for such adoption.     

Integrated environmental policy instruments driven river water pollution management decision system

Market-based approaches and command and control regulations are the two main tools that policy/decision makers use to implement environmental protection goals; however, these alone have proven to be somewhat ineffective or counterproductive in some cases. Therefore, this study proposes a hybrid environmental policy tool to guide river basin environmental management decisions. The river basin authority and regional Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), as the two leading decision makers, and policy makers and implementers of river basin management, make decisions sequentially in a process similar to a Stackelberg game. This decision making can be mathematically represented using a bi-level optimization model. The proposed model addressed the conflicting equitable resource allocation and economic efficiency objectives to achieve coordinated development of the whole river basin. To verify the model effectiveness, the most considerable pollutant emissions limits and water quality standards were set, and incentive measures (pollution chargers and subsidies) were applied to assess these hybrid instruments' impact on the decision outcomes. The results from a Minjiang river basin case further illustrated that the trade-off between social equity and cost-efficient environmental goals could efficiently achieve, proving that a combination of instruments could be influential in pollution decision-making and delivery of environmental policy. Given the model's proven effectiveness, several proposals are given for solving complex pollution problems that also need to consider the related socioeconomic issues.