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1.
Abstract Two papers have recently questioned the quantitative consistency of the search and matching model. Shimer has argued that a textbook matching model is unable to explain the cyclical variation of unemployment and vacancies in the US economy. Costain and Reiter have found the existence of a trade‐off in the model's performance: any attempt to change the calibrated values to improve the model's ability to predict the business cycle jeopardizes its predictions of the impact of unemployment benefits on unemployment. In surveying the literature originating in these findings, I distinguish three different avenues that have been followed to correct the model: change in wage formation, change in the calibration and changes in the model specification. The last approach seems to achieve the best results both from a business cycle and from a microeconomic viewpoint.  相似文献   

2.
Self-employment comprises an important share of employment in many countries, and tends to expand during downturns through higher inflows from unemployment. Furthermore, countries with higher self-employment shares exhibit lower cyclical output persistence. I build a business cycle model with frictional labor markets where individuals can be self-employed or salaried employed. I show that economies with larger self-employment shares exhibit faster economic recoveries. Differences in the ease of entry into self-employment as the economy recovers explain the contrasting cyclical dynamics. The model successfully captures the cyclical patterns of self-employment and the relationship between self-employment and output persistence in the data.  相似文献   

3.
    
Widespread empirical evidence shows that credit standards fluctuate over the business cycle. We build a macroeconomic model in which countercyclical lending standards emerge as an equilibrium outcome. In the model, banks compete on lending rates as well as collateral requirements. The presence of lending relationships between firms and banks gives rise to endogenous fluctuations in interest rate margins and collateral requirements. We demonstrate that endogenous credit standards amplify business cycles, driving up output volatility by around 25% when compared to a model without lending relationships. Finally, we show that in order to combat the effects of endogenous credit standards on macroeconomic volatility, a countercyclical loan-to-value ratio is an effective macroprudential policy tool.  相似文献   

4.
This paper studies the cost of business cycles within a real business cycle model with search and matching frictions in the labor market. We endogenously link both the cyclical fluctuations and the mean level of unemployment to the aggregate business cycle risk. The key result of the paper is that business cycles are costly: fluctuations over the cycle induce a higher average unemployment rate since employment is nonlinear in the job-finding rate and the past unemployment rate. We show this analytically for a special case of the model. We then calibrate the model to U.S. data. For the calibrated model, too, business cycles cause higher average unemployment; the welfare cost of business cycles can easily be an order of magnitude larger than Lucas's (1987) estimate. The cost of business cycles is the higher the lower the value of nonemployment is, or, equivalently, the lower is the disutility of work. The ensuing cost of business cycles rises further when workers' skills depreciate during unemployment.  相似文献   

5.
    
This paper proposes a unified theoretical framework where formal and informal firms coexist and face the same type of product and labor market imperfections: they have monopoly power in the goods market, they are subject to matching frictions in the labor market, and wages are determined by bargaining between large firms and their workers, through either individual or collective bargaining. Our model matches the main stylized facts on informality for developing countries and appears to be a good candidate for policy analysis. In this framework, we study the impact on informality, wages and unemployment of policies that may be used to reduce informality. We consider changes in product market regulation (PMR) and in two types of fiscal policies, labor taxes and formality enforcement. We find that lessening PMR decreases informality and unemployment simultaneously, indicating that there is not necessarily a tradeoff between informality and unemployment. The tradeoff appears when fiscal policies are used, though. Moreover, the impacts of PMR on unemployment and on wages are larger under collective than individual bargaining. With respect to wage inequality, lessening PMR reduces it, while lower taxes tend to increase the formal sector wage premium.  相似文献   

6.
本文借鉴Lucas(1987)及Alvarez和Jermann(2004)的研究模型,将非平稳的消费序列分解为周期波动成分和增长趋势成分,估算中国经济波动与经济增长的总福利成本和边际福利成本,得到以下主要结论:(1)无论是经济波动还是经济增长方面,边际福利成本均为总福利成本的2倍左右。(2)中国经济波动与增长的福利成本在1952~2010年呈现显著的阶段性特征,1952~1990年间经济波动的福利成本显著大于1991~2010年间,而后一阶段经济增长的福利成本也远远大于前一阶段。结合这一发现,我们认为宏观调控应增强中国经济的稳定性,着重防范内外部因素对经济增长趋势的不确定冲击。  相似文献   

7.
Empirical evidence suggests that most firms operate in imperfectly competitive markets. We develop a search-matching model between wholesalers and retailers. Firms face search costs and form long-term relationships. Price bargain results in both wholesaler and retailer mark ups, which depend on firms' relative bargaining power. We simulate the general equilibrium model and explore the role of product market search frictions for business cycles. We conclude from the simulation exercise that incorporating product market search structure and shocks improve the standard real business cycle model to reproduce US business cycle fluctuations.  相似文献   

8.
    
The main objective of this paper is to propose a novel setup that allows estimating separately the welfare costs of the uncertainty stemming from business-cycle fluctuations and from economic-growth variation, when the two types of shocks associated with them (respectively, transitory and permanent shocks) hit consumption simultaneously. Separating these welfare costs requires dealing with degenerate bivariate distributions. Levi's Continuity Theorem and the Disintegration Theorem allow us to adequately define the one-dimensional limiting marginal distributions. Under Normality, we show that the parameters of the original marginal distributions are not affected, providing the means for calculating separately the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and of economic-growth variation.Our empirical results show that, if we consider only transitory shocks, the welfare cost of business cycles is much smaller than previously thought. Indeed, we found it to be negative – −0.03% of per-capita consumption! On the other hand, we found that the welfare cost of economic-growth variation is relatively large. Our estimate for reasonable preference-parameter values shows that it is 0.71% of consumption – US$ 208.98 per person, per year.  相似文献   

9.
Using panel data of 19 OECD countries observed over 40 years and data on specific labor market reform episodes we conclude that labor market institutions matter for business cycle fluctuations. Spearman partial rank correlations reveal that more flexible institutions are associated with lower business cycle volatility. Turning to the analysis of reform episodes, wage bargaining reforms increase the correlation of the real wage with labor productivity and the volatility of unemployment. Employment protection reforms increase the volatility of employment and decrease the correlation of the real wage with labor productivity. Reforms reducing replacement rates make labor productivity more procyclical.  相似文献   

10.
本文选择三种搜索引擎作为研究对象,收集用户使用三种搜索引擎检索的耗时、有效信息数量、用户满意度等相关数据,通过定量的方法对各组数据进行方差检验,对比商务智能搜索引擎和传统搜索引擎知识发现的效果、效率以及用户满意度,研究商务智能搜索引擎的优势,并发现其存在的不足,为今后的搜索引擎开发提供参考。  相似文献   

11.
Abstract.  This survey of business cycle synchronization in the European monetary union focuses on two issues: have business cycles become more similar, and which factors drive business cycle synchronization. We conclude that business cycles in the euro area have gone through periods of both convergence and divergence. Still, there is quite some evidence that during the 1990s business cycle synchronization in the euro area has increased. Higher trade intensity is found to lead to more synchronization, but the point estimates vary widely. The evidence for other factors affecting business cycle synchronization is very mixed.  相似文献   

12.
    
This paper explores uncertainty shocks as a driving force in a search and matching model of the labor market. Uncertainty takes the form of a noisy component in a firm׳s initial signal about job productivity. Greater uncertainty dampens job creation by increasing the risk of making the costly mistake of investing in jobs that will turn out to be unprofitable. Thus, uncertainty shocks can cause labor market downturns: lower vacancy rates, lower job-finding rates, and higher unemployment. Numerical simulations examine the level of volatility and the cross-correlations and autocorrelations of key U.S. labor market indicators that result from fluctuations driven by changes in uncertainty.  相似文献   

13.
Abstract.  This paper surveys available empirical evidence on labour market effects of immigration. Many different approaches have been used already to try to find out whether immigration hurts the labour market opportunities of natives. No doubt new approaches will follow in the future as globalization will keep the migration issue on the agenda. This literature review discusses the different approaches concentrating on both the methodology and the results. At the end, it tries to summarize available evidence.  相似文献   

14.
In this empirical paper, we assess how social exclusion arises in the context of labour market transition behaviour. We estimate a multi-state multi-spell competing risks model and identify five states: high skilled employment, intermediate skilled employment, low skilled employment, unemployment and out-of-the-labour market. Using data from the first seven waves of the British Household Panel Survey, we show that a substantial number of workers were trapped in a vicious circle of low-skilled employment, unemployment and inactivity in the 1990s. Workers who are part of the so-called flexible workforce are more likely to suffer social exclusion.  相似文献   

15.
    
This paper investigates the properties of distortions that manifest themselves as wedges in the equilibrium conditions of the neoclassical growth model across a sample of 22 OECD countries for the 1970–2011 period. The quantitative relevance of each wedge and its robustness in generating fluctuations in macroeconomic aggregates is assessed. The efficiency wedge proves to be determinant in enabling models to replicate movements in output and investment, while the labor wedge is important to predict fluctuations in hours worked. Modeling distortions to the savings decision holds little quantitative or qualitative relevance. Also, investment seems to be the hardest aggregate to replicate, as prediction errors concerning output and hours worked are typically one order of magnitude smaller. These conclusions are statistically significant across the countries in the sample and are not limited to output drops. Finally, the geographical distance between countries and their degree of openness to trade are shown to contain information with regard to the wedges, stressing the importance of international mechanisms of transmission between distortions to the equilibrium conditions of the neoclassical growth model.  相似文献   

16.
The reliability of BEA’s estimates, as measured by the magnitude and pattern of revisions, is highly important to economic policy-making and business decisions. We find evidence that the revisions are partially predicable using contemporaneously available information for the current quarterly estimates of GDP. Information about national income is found to significantly supplement the information found in the final current quarterly estimates of GDP in explaining the revisions to the latest-available estimates of GDP. However, there is little evidence of the predictability of revisions in GDI or national income. Finally, both the advance and final current quarterly estimates are found to do a reliable job of measuring GDP and GDI around cyclical peaks, but a less reliable job around cyclical troughs, the declines preceding the troughs are overstated and the upturns after the troughs are understated. An earlier and somewhat expanded version of this paper, “Revisions, Rationality, and Turning Points in GDP,” was presented at the session “Tracking the Turning Points in the Economy,” AEA meetings January 3–5 2003, Washington DC. It is available in the “working papers” section of BEA’s web site, www.bea.gov  相似文献   

17.
Business cycles in Latin America have tended to be more volatile than those in wealthier nations such as the US. Accordingly, much research has been conducted on Latin business cycles, as well as the impact of the US on such fluctuations. Some research seeks to find how “integrated” cycles are in the US and Latin America, yielding conflicting results. We apply a new method to the question of business cycle synchronization between the US and nine Latin nations. We find that in the majority of cases integration has been rising in recent years. We also find, contrary to some previous studies, that integration does not appear to be affected by either the level of trade or of capital account openness. Finally, we find that the two countries that are dollarized – Ecuador and El Salvador – appear least integrated with the US. This last finding has potentially troubling implications in terms of the ability of these nations to adjust to asymmetric shocks vis-à-vis the US.  相似文献   

18.
This paper explores the hypothesis that the seasonal patterns of macroeconomic variables vary with expansions and contractions. Graphical techniques and generalized predictive tests for structural stability are used to identify and test patterns of changing seasonality. A Monte Carlo exercise shows the power of the tests against interesting alternatives. The empirical results suggest that seasonal patterns are unstable and that in many cases changes are linked to the stages of the business cycle. The forecasting costs incurred by treating seasonality as constant are discussed and evaluated.  相似文献   

19.
Abstract It is argued that fiscal policy can play a part in preventing a possible downward spiral or be instrumental in achieving a higher long‐term path of growth. Never before has this argument been advanced as frequently as in the current economic crisis. However, the economic literature – an overview of which is given here – does not provide an unambiguous answer, either theoretically or empirically, to the question of the relationship between (the smoothing of) cyclical fluctuations and long‐term growth. In this context, two main contrasting explanatory paradigms can be identified: Schumpeter’s concept of creative destruction and the learning by doing hypothesis. Even if it were possible to identify the relationship more clearly on this basis, it is important not to lose sight of the problems associated with the real‐time assessment of the current economic situation, time lags and political economic incentives even in difficult times.  相似文献   

20.
A clarification of the Goodwin model of the growth cycle   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
We show that there is a difficulty in the original Goodwin model which is also found in some more recent applications. In it both the labour share and the proportion employed can exceed unity, properties which are untenable. However, we show that the underlying dynamic structure of the model can be reformulated to ensure that these variables cannot exceed unity. An illustrative example extends the original model, and we argue it is both plausible and satisfies the necessary unit box restrictions.  相似文献   

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