MATCHING MODELS UNDER SCRUTINY: AN APPRAISAL OF THE SHIMER PUZZLE

Abstract Two papers have recently questioned the quantitative consistency of the search and matching model. Shimer has argued that a textbook matching model is unable to explain the cyclical variation of unemployment and vacancies in the US economy. Costain and Reiter have found the existence of a trade‐off in the model's performance: any attempt to change the calibrated values to improve the model's ability to predict the business cycle jeopardizes its predictions of the impact of unemployment benefits on unemployment. In surveying the literature originating in these findings, I distinguish three different avenues that have been followed to correct the model: change in wage formation, change in the calibration and changes in the model specification. The last approach seems to achieve the best results both from a business cycle and from a microeconomic viewpoint.     

Self-employment and business cycle persistence: Does the composition of employment matter for economic recoveries?

Self-employment comprises an important share of employment in many countries, and tends to expand during downturns through higher inflows from unemployment. Furthermore, countries with higher self-employment shares exhibit lower cyclical output persistence. I build a business cycle model with frictional labor markets where individuals can be self-employed or salaried employed. I show that economies with larger self-employment shares exhibit faster economic recoveries. Differences in the ease of entry into self-employment as the economy recovers explain the contrasting cyclical dynamics. The model successfully captures the cyclical patterns of self-employment and the relationship between self-employment and output persistence in the data.     

The (un)importance of unemployment fluctuations for the welfare cost of business cycles

This paper studies the cost of business cycles within a real business cycle model with search and matching frictions in the labor market. We endogenously link both the cyclical fluctuations and the mean level of unemployment to the aggregate business cycle risk. The key result of the paper is that business cycles are costly: fluctuations over the cycle induce a higher average unemployment rate since employment is nonlinear in the job-finding rate and the past unemployment rate. We show this analytically for a special case of the model. We then calibrate the model to U.S. data. For the calibrated model, too, business cycles cause higher average unemployment; the welfare cost of business cycles can easily be an order of magnitude larger than Lucas's (1987) estimate. The cost of business cycles is the higher the lower the value of nonemployment is, or, equivalently, the lower is the disutility of work. The ensuing cost of business cycles rises further when workers' skills depreciate during unemployment.     

Endogenous credit standards and aggregate fluctuations

Widespread empirical evidence shows that credit standards fluctuate over the business cycle. We build a macroeconomic model in which countercyclical lending standards emerge as an equilibrium outcome. In the model, banks compete on lending rates as well as collateral requirements. The presence of lending relationships between firms and banks gives rise to endogenous fluctuations in interest rate margins and collateral requirements. We demonstrate that endogenous credit standards amplify business cycles, driving up output volatility by around 25% when compared to a model without lending relationships. Finally, we show that in order to combat the effects of endogenous credit standards on macroeconomic volatility, a countercyclical loan-to-value ratio is an effective macroprudential policy tool.     

Search frictions,real wage rigidities and the optimal design of unemployment insurance

In this paper, we study the optimal unemployment benefits financing scheme when the economy is subject to labor market imperfections characterized by real wage rigidities and search frictions. The US unemployment insurance financing is such that firms are taxed proportionately to their layoffs to finance unemployment benefits. Using DSGE methodology, we investigate how policy instruments should interact with labor market imperfections. It is shown that wage rigidities in a search and matching environment cause welfare costs, especially in the absence of an incentive-based unemployment insurance. This cost is mainly due to the distorting effect of wage rigidities which generate inefficient separations. We show that the optimal unemployment benefits financing scheme – corresponding to the Ramsey policy – offsets labor market imperfections and allows implementation of the Pareto allocation. The second-best allocation brings the economy close to the Ramsey allocation. The implementation of the optimal policies clearly highlights the role of labor market institutions for short-run stabilization.     

Informality in developing economies: Regulation and fiscal policies

This paper proposes a unified theoretical framework where formal and informal firms coexist and face the same type of product and labor market imperfections: they have monopoly power in the goods market, they are subject to matching frictions in the labor market, and wages are determined by bargaining between large firms and their workers, through either individual or collective bargaining. Our model matches the main stylized facts on informality for developing countries and appears to be a good candidate for policy analysis. In this framework, we study the impact on informality, wages and unemployment of policies that may be used to reduce informality. We consider changes in product market regulation (PMR) and in two types of fiscal policies, labor taxes and formality enforcement. We find that lessening PMR decreases informality and unemployment simultaneously, indicating that there is not necessarily a tradeoff between informality and unemployment. The tradeoff appears when fiscal policies are used, though. Moreover, the impacts of PMR on unemployment and on wages are larger under collective than individual bargaining. With respect to wage inequality, lessening PMR reduces it, while lower taxes tend to increase the formal sector wage premium.     

New international evidence on the cyclical behaviour of output: Kuznets swings reconsidered

Spectral analysis is a particularly valuable method for seeking dependences expressed as lags between different magnitudes. Its use in this article was first determined by the search for maximum objectivity in the observation of time series. The possibility of applying it to a large number of series was then examined. This twin requirement resulted from a desire to avoid the criticism generally levelled at statistical studies concerning cyclical movements of the economy. Spectral analysis is based on the theory of stochastic processes. It starts with the core hypothesis that a given time series consists of a large number of sinusoidal components with different frequencies (univariate spectral analysis). It makes it possible to divide a particular category of records into a set of oscillations of different frequencies and then to show the links between the components with the same frequency in the various series examined (cross-spectral or bivariate spectral analysis). It has had limited applications in cliometrics to date. It is used here to determine the frequency of GDP series of several OECD countries. A reminder of the method Sect. 2 is followed by successive examination of the various series chosen, the treatment of these series and the results of spectral analysis Sect. 3. It is then possible as a conclusion to show the prospects of this type of approach and to synthesise a completely new major result for understanding economic dynamics in nineteenth and twentieth centuries, that is to say the existence of a single intermediate cycle with 15–20-year frequency that calls into question or even partially contradicts previous work on economic cycles.      

Search in the product market and the real business cycle

Empirical evidence suggests that most firms operate in imperfectly competitive markets. We develop a search-matching model between wholesalers and retailers. Firms face search costs and form long-term relationships. Price bargain results in both wholesaler and retailer mark ups, which depend on firms' relative bargaining power. We simulate the general equilibrium model and explore the role of product market search frictions for business cycles. We conclude from the simulation exercise that incorporating product market search structure and shocks improve the standard real business cycle model to reproduce US business cycle fluctuations.     

On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century and beyond

The main objective of this paper is to propose a novel setup that allows estimating separately the welfare costs of the uncertainty stemming from business-cycle fluctuations and from economic-growth variation, when the two types of shocks associated with them (respectively, transitory and permanent shocks) hit consumption simultaneously. Separating these welfare costs requires dealing with degenerate bivariate distributions. Levi's Continuity Theorem and the Disintegration Theorem allow us to adequately define the one-dimensional limiting marginal distributions. Under Normality, we show that the parameters of the original marginal distributions are not affected, providing the means for calculating separately the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and of economic-growth variation.Our empirical results show that, if we consider only transitory shocks, the welfare cost of business cycles is much smaller than previously thought. Indeed, we found it to be negative – −0.03% of per-capita consumption! On the other hand, we found that the welfare cost of economic-growth variation is relatively large. Our estimate for reasonable preference-parameter values shows that it is 0.71% of consumption – US$ 208.98 per person, per year.     

Immigration and occupational status: A study of Bangladeshi and Turkish fathers and sons in the London labour market

This paper examines the labour market experience of 300 fathers and 300 of their sons in the Bangladeshi and Turkish immigrant communities in various London boroughs in 1988. Probit estimates are made in relation to employment and unemployment, self-employment and employment, and upward mobility or lack of it. Human capital regressions are also run for each of the four groups and for the combined sample. The evidence is consistent with distinctive labour market experience among the various groups.     

基于媒体习惯研究的高校音乐美育管理平台探索

本研究基于媒体习惯的概念,通过对现今高校学生音乐媒体习惯的现状及相关影响因素进行实证研究,以探索符合大学生媒体习惯的高校音乐美育平台的构建。研究结果显示,基于网络的音乐传播方式是大学生最为习惯的,同时其他音乐传播媒体和传播方式并没有完全退出大学生的生活;第二,低年龄的大学生表现出更为活跃的、多样化的音乐媒体习惯;第三,器乐的学习会减少大学生与音乐电视媒体的接触行为,增加其通过音乐会、乐谱、人际传播的音乐接受途径;第四,性别方面,女大学生相对于男生会选择更多样化媒体习惯来聆听音乐;第五,音乐类型方面,西方音乐的爱好者具有明显的网络媒体选择习惯。     

Implicit contracts and the cyclicality of the skill-premium

To examine the cyclical behavior of the skill-premium, this paper introduces implicit labor contracts in a DSGE model where production is characterized by capital-skill complementarity and the utilization of capital is endogenous. It is shown that this model can reproduce the observed cyclical patterns of wages and the skill-premium. The feature of capital-skill complementarity coupled with variable capital utilization rates does not come at odds with the acyclical behavior of the skill-premium. The paper argues that the skill-complementarity of capital is not a quantitatively significant factor at high frequencies. The key aspects are the contracts and the capital utilization margin.     

The dynamics of the leverage cycle

We present a simple agent-based model of a financial system composed of leveraged investors such as banks that invest in stocks and manage their risk using a Value-at-Risk constraint, based on historical observations of asset prices. The Value-at-Risk constraint implies that when perceived risk is low, leverage is high and vice versa; a phenomenon that has been dubbed pro-cyclical leverage. We show that this leads to endogenous irregular oscillations, in which gradual increases in stock prices and leverage are followed by drastic market collapses, i.e. a leverage cycle. This phenomenon is studied using simplified models that give a deeper understanding of the dynamics and the nature of the feedback loops and instabilities underlying the leverage cycle. We introduce a flexible leverage regulation policy in which it is possible to continuously tune from pro-cyclical to countercyclical leverage. When the policy is sufficiently countercyclical and bank risk is sufficiently low the endogenous oscillation disappears and prices go to a fixed point. While there is always a leverage ceiling above which the dynamics are unstable, countercyclical leverage policies can be used to raise the ceiling. We also study the impact on leverage cycles of direct, temporal control of the bank׳s riskiness via the bank׳s required Value-at-Risk quantile. Under such a rule the regulator relaxes the Value-at-Risk quantile following a negative stock price shock and tightens it following a positive shock. While such a policy rule can reduce the amplitude of leverage cycles, its effectiveness is highly dependent on the choice of parameters. Finally, we investigate fixed limits on leverage and show how they can control the leverage cycle.     

A financial accelerator in the business sector of a macroeconometric model of a small open economy

We have incorporated a financial accelerator mechanism operating through investments in the business sector in a dynamic macroeconometric model of the Norwegian economy. In this new and amended model aggregated credit and equity prices are determined simultaneously in a system characterized by a two-directional contemporaneous causal link, which has been designed and estimated by a new procedure for simultaneous structural model design. Combined with a mechanism where credit and asset prices are mutually influenced by real investments, this creates a financial accelerator amplified by a credit-asset price spiral. Simulations illustrate how the introduction of a financial accelerator significantly reinforces and extends the economic cycles in projections and forecasts, in particular when confronted by a severe shock. Furthermore, monetary policy has a markedly stronger effect in the short and medium term, while the impact of fiscal policy is affected to a relatively small degree as it is more remotely linked to financial markets.     

论我国企业信用缺失的原因及治理对策

市场经济是信用经济,目前我国企业信用缺失已成为市场经济发展的严重障碍。文章分析了我国企业信用缺失的现状,对信用缺失的成因进行了剖析,并对如何治理企业信用缺失提出了对策和建议。     

校企合作课程《药店经营与管理》的开发与创新

《药店经营与管理》是药品经营与管理专业的核心课程,为药店相关工作和岗位提供系统全面的知识指导和技能培训,为学生走向就业奠定坚实的基础。在校企合作的大好背景下,课程负责人和课程组成员对课程进行了开发和创新,包括教学目标、教学内容、考核模式、教学方法、教学场所、教材。总结课程特色和创新点,可概括为"知识技能素质并重、岗位工作取舍内容、自我管理工学一体、过程考核综合评价"。     

城乡收入差距对城镇失业的影响及对策分析

当前我国城乡收入差距日益扩大引发了庞大的乡-城人口流动,在一定程度上加剧了城镇的高失业状况.正确认识这种状况,需要运用适当的理论,予以科学的分析.利用托达罗模型对此现象进行了理论分析,并利用格兰杰因果关系检验方法对城乡收入差距加剧我国城镇失业问题进行了实证检验,最后提出了短期内利用新农村建设缓解我国城镇失业压力的政策措施及建议.     

A mixed behaviour equilibrium model with mode choice and its application to the endogenous demand of automated vehicles

This study develops a mixed behavioural equilibrium model with explicit consideration of mode choice (MBE-MC) in a transportation system where fully automated vehicles (AV) coexist with conventional human-driven vehicles (HV). For the mode choice, travellers select among three options, following a logit modal split: driving their private HV, or taking an AV mobility service provided by either a firm or the government. For the route choice, the HV drivers follow the random utility maximisation principle while central agents route the AV passengers following the Cournot Nash (firm agent) or Social Optimal (government agent) principles. We consider two types of travel costs (i.e. travel time and monetary travel cost) to characterise the new features (e.g. expanded link capacity and reduced value of time) of the mixed AV–HV transportation system. We model the MBE-MC problem in a combined mode–route choice framework and formulate it as a route-based variational inequality (VI) problem. We show the equivalence between the VI formulation and the MBE-MC problem, and the existence of a solution to the MBE-MC problem. Then, we modify a partial linearisation algorithm for solving the proposed model. Numerical results validate the equilibrium conditions and show the efficacy of the new model in capturing the features of the mixed AV–HV transportation system. The impact patterns of different parameters on (1) the network performance in terms of AV share and system cost and (2) on the solution efficiency are analysed.     

促进科技中介市场发展与大学生就业的地方立法问题研究

本文针对经济危机冲击下的我国地方政府,如何可持续地发展经济,促进科技中介市场的形成,有效安置大学生就业这一问题,从法学视角出发,结合科技中介市场情况的调研,客观地分析了一些地方政府在启动科技中介市场上存在的弊端,在结合我国国情和借鉴国外相关立法经验的基础上,对我国地方政府促进科技中介市场的发展与有效安置大学生就业相衔接的措施,作出了法律制度上的设计。     

政府与市场关系视角下住房问题治理对策研究

城市住房领域政府与市场关系的研究,对有效解决我国城市住房问题具有重要理论价值和政策含义。在多元经济学范式下分析政府与市场的关系,结合住房和住房市场的特性,探寻社会相互作用的两种基本规则：市场与政府解决住房问题的边界,构建了住房领域政府与市场关系的理论分析框架。在该框架下,探讨我国城市住房问题求解的思路及对策：完善住房市场、健全住房保障体系,发挥“第三方”的作用,促进我国住房市场健康持续发展。