MATCHING MODELS UNDER SCRUTINY: AN APPRAISAL OF THE SHIMER PUZZLE

Abstract Two papers have recently questioned the quantitative consistency of the search and matching model. Shimer has argued that a textbook matching model is unable to explain the cyclical variation of unemployment and vacancies in the US economy. Costain and Reiter have found the existence of a trade‐off in the model's performance: any attempt to change the calibrated values to improve the model's ability to predict the business cycle jeopardizes its predictions of the impact of unemployment benefits on unemployment. In surveying the literature originating in these findings, I distinguish three different avenues that have been followed to correct the model: change in wage formation, change in the calibration and changes in the model specification. The last approach seems to achieve the best results both from a business cycle and from a microeconomic viewpoint.     

Self-employment and business cycle persistence: Does the composition of employment matter for economic recoveries?

Self-employment comprises an important share of employment in many countries, and tends to expand during downturns through higher inflows from unemployment. Furthermore, countries with higher self-employment shares exhibit lower cyclical output persistence. I build a business cycle model with frictional labor markets where individuals can be self-employed or salaried employed. I show that economies with larger self-employment shares exhibit faster economic recoveries. Differences in the ease of entry into self-employment as the economy recovers explain the contrasting cyclical dynamics. The model successfully captures the cyclical patterns of self-employment and the relationship between self-employment and output persistence in the data.     

The (un)importance of unemployment fluctuations for the welfare cost of business cycles

This paper studies the cost of business cycles within a real business cycle model with search and matching frictions in the labor market. We endogenously link both the cyclical fluctuations and the mean level of unemployment to the aggregate business cycle risk. The key result of the paper is that business cycles are costly: fluctuations over the cycle induce a higher average unemployment rate since employment is nonlinear in the job-finding rate and the past unemployment rate. We show this analytically for a special case of the model. We then calibrate the model to U.S. data. For the calibrated model, too, business cycles cause higher average unemployment; the welfare cost of business cycles can easily be an order of magnitude larger than Lucas's (1987) estimate. The cost of business cycles is the higher the lower the value of nonemployment is, or, equivalently, the lower is the disutility of work. The ensuing cost of business cycles rises further when workers' skills depreciate during unemployment.     

中国经济波动与增长的福利成本分析

本文借鉴Lucas（1987）及Alvarez和Jermann（2004）的研究模型,将非平稳的消费序列分解为周期波动成分和增长趋势成分,估算中国经济波动与经济增长的总福利成本和边际福利成本,得到以下主要结论：（1）无论是经济波动还是经济增长方面,边际福利成本均为总福利成本的2倍左右。（2）中国经济波动与增长的福利成本在1952~2010年呈现显著的阶段性特征,1952~1990年间经济波动的福利成本显著大于1991~2010年间,而后一阶段经济增长的福利成本也远远大于前一阶段。结合这一发现,我们认为宏观调控应增强中国经济的稳定性,着重防范内外部因素对经济增长趋势的不确定冲击。     

Search in the product market and the real business cycle

Empirical evidence suggests that most firms operate in imperfectly competitive markets. We develop a search-matching model between wholesalers and retailers. Firms face search costs and form long-term relationships. Price bargain results in both wholesaler and retailer mark ups, which depend on firms' relative bargaining power. We simulate the general equilibrium model and explore the role of product market search frictions for business cycles. We conclude from the simulation exercise that incorporating product market search structure and shocks improve the standard real business cycle model to reproduce US business cycle fluctuations.     

Do labor market institutions matter for business cycles?

Using panel data of 19 OECD countries observed over 40 years and data on specific labor market reform episodes we conclude that labor market institutions matter for business cycle fluctuations. Spearman partial rank correlations reveal that more flexible institutions are associated with lower business cycle volatility. Turning to the analysis of reform episodes, wage bargaining reforms increase the correlation of the real wage with labor productivity and the volatility of unemployment. Employment protection reforms increase the volatility of employment and decrease the correlation of the real wage with labor productivity. Reforms reducing replacement rates make labor productivity more procyclical.     

商务智能与传统搜索引擎的比较分析研究

本文选择三种搜索引擎作为研究对象,收集用户使用三种搜索引擎检索的耗时、有效信息数量、用户满意度等相关数据,通过定量的方法对各组数据进行方差检验,对比商务智能搜索引擎和传统搜索引擎知识发现的效果、效率以及用户满意度,研究商务智能搜索引擎的优势,并发现其存在的不足,为今后的搜索引擎开发提供参考。     

WILL BUSINESS CYCLES IN THE EURO AREA CONVERGE? A CRITICAL SURVEY OF EMPIRICAL RESEARCH

Abstract.  This survey of business cycle synchronization in the European monetary union focuses on two issues: have business cycles become more similar, and which factors drive business cycle synchronization. We conclude that business cycles in the euro area have gone through periods of both convergence and divergence. Still, there is quite some evidence that during the 1990s business cycle synchronization in the euro area has increased. Higher trade intensity is found to lead to more synchronization, but the point estimates vary widely. The evidence for other factors affecting business cycle synchronization is very mixed.     

HOW TO MEASURE LABOUR MARKET EFFECTS OF IMMIGRATION: A REVIEW

Abstract.  This paper surveys available empirical evidence on labour market effects of immigration. Many different approaches have been used already to try to find out whether immigration hurts the labour market opportunities of natives. No doubt new approaches will follow in the future as globalization will keep the migration issue on the agenda. This literature review discusses the different approaches concentrating on both the methodology and the results. At the end, it tries to summarize available evidence.     

Social exclusion and labour market transitions: a multi-state multi-spell analysis using the BHPS

In this empirical paper, we assess how social exclusion arises in the context of labour market transition behaviour. We estimate a multi-state multi-spell competing risks model and identify five states: high skilled employment, intermediate skilled employment, low skilled employment, unemployment and out-of-the-labour market. Using data from the first seven waves of the British Household Panel Survey, we show that a substantial number of workers were trapped in a vicious circle of low-skilled employment, unemployment and inactivity in the 1990s. Workers who are part of the so-called flexible workforce are more likely to suffer social exclusion.     

GDP Estimates: Rationality Tests and Turning Point Performance

The reliability of BEA’s estimates, as measured by the magnitude and pattern of revisions, is highly important to economic policy-making and business decisions. We find evidence that the revisions are partially predicable using contemporaneously available information for the current quarterly estimates of GDP. Information about national income is found to significantly supplement the information found in the final current quarterly estimates of GDP in explaining the revisions to the latest-available estimates of GDP. However, there is little evidence of the predictability of revisions in GDI or national income. Finally, both the advance and final current quarterly estimates are found to do a reliable job of measuring GDP and GDI around cyclical peaks, but a less reliable job around cyclical troughs, the declines preceding the troughs are overstated and the upturns after the troughs are understated. An earlier and somewhat expanded version of this paper, “Revisions, Rationality, and Turning Points in GDP,” was presented at the session “Tracking the Turning Points in the Economy,” AEA meetings January 3–5 2003, Washington DC. It is available in the “working papers” section of BEA’s web site, www.bea.gov     

The impact of the US on Latin American business cycles: A new approach

Business cycles in Latin America have tended to be more volatile than those in wealthier nations such as the US. Accordingly, much research has been conducted on Latin business cycles, as well as the impact of the US on such fluctuations. Some research seeks to find how “integrated” cycles are in the US and Latin America, yielding conflicting results. We apply a new method to the question of business cycle synchronization between the US and nine Latin nations. We find that in the majority of cases integration has been rising in recent years. We also find, contrary to some previous studies, that integration does not appear to be affected by either the level of trade or of capital account openness. Finally, we find that the two countries that are dollarized – Ecuador and El Salvador – appear least integrated with the US. This last finding has potentially troubling implications in terms of the ability of these nations to adjust to asymmetric shocks vis-à-vis the US.     

Changes in seasonal patterns : Are they cyclical?

This paper explores the hypothesis that the seasonal patterns of macroeconomic variables vary with expansions and contractions. Graphical techniques and generalized predictive tests for structural stability are used to identify and test patterns of changing seasonality. A Monte Carlo exercise shows the power of the tests against interesting alternatives. The empirical results suggest that seasonal patterns are unstable and that in many cases changes are linked to the stages of the business cycle. The forecasting costs incurred by treating seasonality as constant are discussed and evaluated.     

LONG DARK SHADOWS OR INNOVATIVE SPIRITS? THE EFFECTS OF (SMOOTHING) BUSINESS CYCLES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: A SURVEY OF THE LITERATURE

Abstract It is argued that fiscal policy can play a part in preventing a possible downward spiral or be instrumental in achieving a higher long‐term path of growth. Never before has this argument been advanced as frequently as in the current economic crisis. However, the economic literature – an overview of which is given here – does not provide an unambiguous answer, either theoretically or empirically, to the question of the relationship between (the smoothing of) cyclical fluctuations and long‐term growth. In this context, two main contrasting explanatory paradigms can be identified: Schumpeter’s concept of creative destruction and the learning by doing hypothesis. Even if it were possible to identify the relationship more clearly on this basis, it is important not to lose sight of the problems associated with the real‐time assessment of the current economic situation, time lags and political economic incentives even in difficult times.     

A clarification of the Goodwin model of the growth cycle

We show that there is a difficulty in the original Goodwin model which is also found in some more recent applications. In it both the labour share and the proportion employed can exceed unity, properties which are untenable. However, we show that the underlying dynamic structure of the model can be reformulated to ensure that these variables cannot exceed unity. An illustrative example extends the original model, and we argue it is both plausible and satisfies the necessary unit box restrictions.