Regional volatility in emerging countriesThe case of Russia1

An uneven distribution of natural resources and the Soviet legacy of artificial regional specialization expose Russia's regions to large income shocks. Using an unique regional dataset covering Russian regions between 1992 and 2003, we assess how these features influence the magnitude and persistence of regional income shocks. We propose a novel measure of regional exogenous shocks that we use to show that fiscal policy in Russia's regions has largely been pro‐cyclical, exacerbating rather than moderating regional exogenous shocks.     

Are real exchanges rate series really persistent?: evidence from three commonwealth of independent states countries

This article sets out to examine the degree of persistence in the real exchange rates of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia, and tests the validity of Purchasing power parity (PPP) using monthly data covering 1995:01–2013:12 period. The sum of autoregressive (AR) coefficients is used in order to examine persistence of the real exchange rate series and grid-bootstrap method is employed for the confidence intervals. The tests performed suggest two results: (1) Covering the full sample and sub-sample periods, excluding Kyrgyzstan in 1995:01–1998:07 and Russia in 2008:09–2013:12 periods, disregarding the structural breaks in the data generating process, there is high persistency in real exchange rates; (2) there is evidence in support of PPP covering the full sample for every country except for Kyrgyzstan in 1995:01–1998:07 and Russia in 2008:09–2013:12 periods.     

Patients' migration across regions: the case of Italy

This article analyses patient mobility across Italian regions. A modified gravity model of patient migration is specified and estimated using panel observations covering mobility and other main regional quality indicators over the period 1994–1997. Despite the high level of aggregation due to data constraints, the empirical findings show that in Italy there is wide scope for quality-driven mobility while income determines the quality of the service offered.     

Perspectives on the Guaranteed Income,Part I

Strengthening economic, social, and territorial cohesion is a central objective of the European Union. However, disparities between European regions are considerable, and there are doubts as to whether they are likely to be attenuated. In recent years, there has been a growing body of literature that examines the effectiveness of the European Union’s funds for promoting growth and reducing asymmetries among members. We contribute to this literature by examining the conditions under which the European Union’s financial aid may be affecting regional growth. We explore the interactions between transfers and income and other regional characteristics, such as human capital or innovation. We apply this study to a panel of 137 European regions, covering the period from 1995 to 2009. Our conclusions suggest a positive and significant marginal impact of funds only in regions with low levels of human capital and innovation.     

中国电信投资经济效应的实证研究

本文研究了电信投资对我国经济增长的贡献以及贡献值变化的趋势。利用我国2000—2005年31个省市的数据,建立和估计了两者之间的系统结构方程。结果发现我国电信投资对我国经济增长的边际贡献平均为2.376%,比其他社会基础投资高6.758%,但电信投资的边际贡献呈现下降趋势。分区域考察的结果表明,电信投资及其贡献存在着明显的区域非均衡,在西部对生产率的促进作用远远高于东部和中部;我国西部应加大对电信的投资,东部需要调整投资结构,而中部则应采取措施刺激电信消费。本文在同类研究中取得了一定突破,和Roller与Waverman(2001)的研究结论相反,得出的实证结论与他们在网络效应和边际贡献方面的理论预测相反,对制定电信投资决策具有指导作用。     

地方经济增长与环境质量——以山东省域为例的库兹涅茨曲线分析

对于不同地区、不同污染物而言,经济增长与环境质量之间的关系不尽相同,表现为环境库兹涅茨曲线呈现地域性和时间性差异。本文在回顾相关研究成果的基础上,采用山东省17个城市1995～2008年的面板数据,建立涵盖污染物排放指标和环境监测指标两大类、11种环境指标与人均GDP之间的计量经济模型,对环境质量变化与山东省经济增长的关系进行实证检验,比较污染排放指标与环境监测指标的检验结果,进而评估人口规模、产业结构、对外开放以及环境政策等控制变量对污染物排放和环境质量的影响。结果显示,尽管部分环境指标处于下行通道,但山东省环境目前整体状况和未来趋势不容乐观,应进一步加大节能减排力度,完善污染治理的体制机制,改善治理效果。     

Detecting intra-national PPP model in China: A median-unbiased estimation approach

This paper studies the speed of price adjustments toward the intra-national PPP level within China based on half-life measurement. We calculate the point estimates of half-lives and the corresponding confidence intervals using median-unbiased estimation methods to correct for downward bias in least squares estimates. The point estimates of half-lives indicate that the speed of mean reversion toward convergence between region pairs is fast. A strong conclusion about the high speed of adjustments is, however, unwarranted in some regions where the confidence intervals for half-life estimates are much wider than others.     

INFRASTRUCTURE AND PRODUCTION EFFICIENCY: AN ANALYSIS ON THE KOREAN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY

This study estimates an aggregate production function of manufacturing industry using panel data of 11 Korean regions covering 1977–1992. While the previous studies regard infrastructure as a direct input for production, the present study proposes that infrastructure has an effect on actual output by enhancing technical efficiency thereby, reducing the gap between maximum potential output and actual output. To investigate the relationship between infrastructure and technical efficiency, a stochastic frontier approach is applied to Korean manufacturing industry. Confirming the presence of substantial technical inefficiency in production, this study shows that an increase in infrastructure reduces the technical inefficiency level. The study also finds that, contrary to expectation, the industrialized regions are less efficient than the less industrialized ones. (JEL O20, H54, C23)     

Calculating joint confidence bands for impulse response functions using highest density regions

This paper proposes a new nonparametric method of constructing joint confidence bands for impulse response functions of vector autoregressive models. The estimation uncertainty is captured by means of bootstrapping, and the highest density region (HDR) approach is used to construct the bands. A Monte Carlo comparison of the HDR bands with existing alternatives shows that the former are competitive with the bootstrap-based Bonferroni and Wald confidence regions. The relative tightness of the HDR bands matched with their good coverage properties makes them attractive for applications. An application to corporate bond spreads for Germany highlights the potential for empirical work.     

基于“两个融合”的省域新型工业化水平评价与对策

新型工业化是欠发达地区实现区域经济发展的必由之路,紧扣新型工业化的内涵要求,设计涵盖其要义的省域综合评价体系,并以中国大陆的30个省(区、市)为研究对象(西藏因部分指标缺失未包括在内)做实证分析.结果表明省域间新型工业化水平差异并不显著,北京、上海、湖南得分较高,东部地区得分整体高于全国水平,而中部、东北、西部得分低于全国水平.省域间在信息化与工业化融合、服务业与制造业融合两项得分上的差异性较大,也是对各省新型工业化水平贡献最大的因素.针对分项指标中各省发展存在的问题采取对策,以提高其新型工业化水平.     

An Illustrated User Guide to the World Input–Output Database: the Case of Global Automotive Production

This article provides guidance to prudent use of the World Input–Output Database (WIOD) in analyses of international trade. The WIOD contains annual time‐series of world input–output tables and factor requirements covering the period from 1995 to 2011. Underlying concepts, construction methods and data sources are introduced, pointing out particular strengths and weaknesses. We illustrate its usefulness by analyzing the geographical and factorial distribution of value added in global automotive production and show increasing fragmentation, both within and across regions. Possible improvements and extensions to the data are discussed.     

Green,greener, greenest: Identifying ecological trends and leading entities by means of environmental ratings

In this article, we analyse whether industries worldwide significantly react to the changing environmental demands of their stakeholders. Specifically, we test the hypothesis of increasing environmentally responsible company behaviour in recent years. We do this by constructing environmental industry ratings based on a novel data-set covering three geographic regions and 42 industries from 2009 to 2015 and by fitting robust trend regression models to these ratings. Interestingly, we cannot observe a general upward trend in all industries and regions. In other words, the ‘green wave’ does not appear to carry all business sectors. This becomes particularly clear when looking at rankings derived from estimated trends. Industries in Europe show especially significant downward trends. Even though most European industries are currently rated higher than their counterparts in the Asia-Pacific region and North America, these trends indicate that Europe may lose this leading position in the future. Besides delivering such general tendencies, our estimated trends combined with the current rating levels provide important decision support. They show which industry sectors and regions are particularly (un)interesting for socially responsible investment products, ecologically conscious applicants or environmentally responsible consumers.     

A dynamic spatial panel data approach to the German wage curve

A wage curve is a decreasing function of wages on the regional unemployment rate. Most empirical studies on the wage curve ignore possible spatial interaction effects between the regions which are the primary units of research. This paper reconsiders the western German wage curve with a special focus on the geography of labour markets. Spillovers between regions are taken into account. The paper tests whether the unemployment rate in the larger surrounding region also affects wages. In addition, agglomeration effects and effects of local monopsony are assessed.The main database is a random sample of 974,179 employees observed over the period 1980-2004 and covering 326 NUTS3 units (districts). This rich data set is used to estimate a dynamic wage curve according to the two-step approach of Bell et al. (2002). In the first step one controls for individual heterogeneity and in the second step one allows for spatial effects of unemployment across regions on wages. We check the sensitivity of this wage elasticity to various spatial weight matrices as well as allowing for the endogeneity of unemployment. We also estimate the wage elasticity for various population groups.     

Structural change: Pace,patterns and determinants

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of structural change in the world economy. The analysis relies on a newly constructed dataset comprising 169 countries and covering the period from 1991 to 2013. Shapley decompositions are employed to evaluate the pace and pattern of structural change across regions and sub‐regions. Country‐level estimates are then used to conduct an original empirical exercise on the determinants of structural change. The results suggest that labor reallocations (structural change) have played a critical role in enhancing economic performance since the early 2000s, even if they remain comparatively less important than within‐sector productivity improvements. The widespread reallocation of labor from agriculture to the services sectors has been the key driver of structural change. Finally, we find robust evidence that the pace of structural change is significantly shaped by human and physical capital. The policy implication is that investments in education and economic infrastructure are crucial to accelerating structural change.     

Foreign Direct Investment and Regional Inequality in China

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is blamed for being one of the main factors widening regional inequality in Chinese regions since it is highly unevenly distributed spatially. If this logic were true, then controlling the scale of FDI could be a solution to reduce regional inequality. However, it is difficult to reconcile the positive effect of FDI on economic growth with its potential "negative" effect on regional inequality. Using the largest panel dataset covering all the Chinese regions over the entire period 1979–2003 and employing an augmented Cobb–Douglas production function, this paper proves that FDI has been an important factor responsible for regional growth differences in China. However, it suggests that FDI cannot be blamed for rising regional inequality. It is the uneven distribution of FDI instead of FDI itself that has caused regional growth differences. The research results have important policy implications on regional development in China relating to FDI.     

Typology of the French regional development: revealing the refugee versus Schumpeter effects in new-firm start-ups

In this article, we analyse the relationships between unemployment rates and new-firm start-up rates in France. Using a quarterly data basis covering the period 1993 to 2011, we identify, thanks to data analysis methods, different classes that show different types of development among the French regions. For each of these classes, the existence of refugee/Schumpeter effects both in the short run and in the long run is revealed. At the national level, it appears that the refugee effect explains the dynamics of entrepreneurship in France over the period 2000 to 2011. Necessity is the key motivation for new French firms.     

Trade Agreements and Trade Opportunities: A Flexible Approach for Modeling Australian Export and Import Elasticities

Patterns of trade have changed enormously over the last 30 years, particularly due to the economic emergence of several Asian countries. With the increasing international tendency for bilateral preferential trade agreements, it is important for countries to be aware of trade substitution possibilities. This paper estimates import and export price elasticities for Australia and its major trading partners in Europe and Asia, 1958 to 2002, using a fully flexible version of the Symmetric Normalized Quadratic aggregator function. Imports and exports are disaggregated into six regions, covering 17 countries. Our results illuminate the (changing) substitution and complementarity patterns for Australian foreign trade, highlighting trading opportunities in the face of a changing international environment.     

Assessing efficiency and investment opportunities in commodities: A time series and portfolio simulations approach

This paper investigates the informational efficiency hypothesis in the short and long term for four major commodity markets (oil, gas, electricity, and coal) from January 1997 to January 2016. Unlike previous studies, we provide a more concise comparative analysis by focusing on different classes of commodities for a large sample, including 5 developed and 3 emerging regions and covering 46 countries. We apply different parametric and non-parametric econometric tests. Our study provides two interesting findings. First, we show that commodity markets are informationally inefficient in the short term. Our portfolio simulations highlight that commodities might provide “good” investment opportunities, but those opportunities vary according to commodity class and regions. Second, we show that most commodity markets become informationally efficient in the long term, thereby reducing investors' interest for the duration. Thus, commodity markets might be used to hedge investor’s portfolios, particularly for speculators and chartists in the short term, while these investments might not be appealing in these markets in the long term.     

Empowering knowledge: Political leaders,education, and economic liberalization

Recent literature reports significant effects of political leaders in driving economic policies but does not provide an exhaustive answer as to why. This paper argues that educational background plays an important role in shaping leaders' ideas and beliefs, which in turn matter for policy making in the long run. Using a cross-country data covering 137 countries and regions over 1960–2005, the paper documents a robustly positive relationship between leaders educational attainment and faster liberal reforms, regardless of regime type. The effects are more salient for leaders who majored in economics, social science, and natural science. Moreover, the effects of education seem to be orthogonal to alternative channels such as partisan politics, geopolitical factors, and public opinions.     

我国各省市综合承载力评价

随着城市人口的急剧增长以及城市规模的快速扩张,综合承载力对各省市经济发展的约束逐渐成为人们关注的焦点.本文从资源、经济和环境三个角度出发构建指标体系,采用功效系数法测算我国31个省、市、自治区当前的承栽力和承栽压力,并通过构建承压度这一指标对其进行总体评价.测定结果显示：广西、贵州和宁夏这几个省区的承压度较高,应该作为优化开发区;上海、江苏、天津等省市的承压度小于1,应该作为重点开发区.