宏观审慎政策协调能否抑制国际性银行危机传染？——基于跨境金融关联视角的实证研究

本文基于跨境金融关联视角对宏观审慎政策能否抑制国际性银行危机传染这一重要的理论与实践问题进行了实证研究。选取亚洲金融危机和全球金融危机时期遭受冲击的10个代表性国家作为样本,构建Logit模型和多元回归模型探讨本国及具有金融关联的国家协调实施宏观审慎政策对本国系统性银行危机传染的影响。研究表明,具有金融关联的国家出现金融危机会显著增加本国系统性银行危机的发生概率,具有金融关联的国家实施宏观审慎政策对本国信贷的影响比对房价的影响更明显,本国及具有金融关联的国家协调实施宏观审慎政策会显著降低本国系统性银行危机的发生概率。在调整银行危机指标及考虑贸易关联和流动性风险的影响后,研究结果依然保持稳健。本文的研究结论揭示了加强宏观审慎政策协调有助于维护全球金融稳定,对于中国政策当局强化宏观审慎管理具有极其重要的政策含义。     

The Systemic Risk of Cross-Border Banking: Evidence from the Sudden Stop and Interbank Stress Contagion in East Asia

This article investigates the systemic risk of cross-border banking in East Asia. Using the recursive bivariate probit model, we jointly test the probability of the sudden stop in international lending and its simultaneous effect on the host countries’ interbank markets. The empirical results suggest that the risk of a sudden stop is associated with global liquidity shock; host country productivity shock; and the common lender contagion effect. This facilitates the transmission of interbank stress from advanced economies to emerging markets. However, the tension is mitigated by the “flight-home effect” caused by domestic investors’ repatriation. The sudden stop is more likely to occur in countries with lower financial openness but higher financial risk. Lending flows to the banking sectors are more sensitive to shocks than the flows to the non-bank private sectors.     

Cross-border banking,bank market structures and market power: Theory and cross-country evidence

Patterns in cross-border banking have changed since the global financial crisis. This may affect domestic bank market structures and macroeconomic stability in the longer term. In this study, I theoretically and empirically analyze how different modes of cross-border banking impact bank concentration and market power. I use a two-country general equilibrium model with heterogeneous banks developed by DeBlas and Russ (2010a) to grasp the effect of cross-border lending and foreign direct investment in the banking sector on bank market structures. The model suggests that both cross-border lending and bank FDI mitigate concentration. Empirical evidence from a panel dataset of 18 OECD countries supports the theoretical predictions: higher volumes of bank FDI and of cross-border lending coincide with lower Herfindahl-indexes in bank credit markets.     

Foreign banks in syndicated loan markets

Foreign banks play a prominent role in syndicated loan markets. In this paper we examine foreign banks’ motives in participating in cross-border deals in 25 European countries. We find that usual explanations of foreign banking activities can only account partly for the high rate of foreign involvement in syndicated loan markets. The usual argument is that foreign banks are at a disadvantage because they lack soft information and thus they tend to lend to more transparent firms compared to their domestic counterparts. We find that this relationship only holds in relatively small financial systems. We illustrate different motivations for the large amount of cross border lending in large developed markets. In these markets foreign banks tend to lend to especially risky borrowers and projects.     

Financial stress and economic contractions

This paper examines why some financial stress episodes lead to economic downturns. The paper identifies episodes of financial turmoil in advanced economies using a financial stress index (FSI), and proposes an analytical framework to assess the impact of financial stress – in particular banking distress – on the real economy. It concludes that financial turmoil characterized by banking distress is more likely to be associated with deeper and longer downturns than stress mainly in securities or foreign exchange markets. Economies with more arm's-length financial systems seem to be more exposed to contractions in activity following financial stress, due to the greater procyclicality of leverage in their banking systems.     

Macro-Networks: An application to euro area financial accounts

This paper develops a financial network, designated the “Macro-Network”, that depicts the connections between the main financial and non-financial sectors of the economy in the various financial instruments of the euro area. The Macro-Network comprises of linkages across financial and non-financial sectors in each country. These country-level sector networks are then connected by the cross-border links between the individual banking sectors. Using the Macro-Network to simulate financial shocks, we find that the propagation effects depend on the underlying network structure, which evolves over time. After the financial crisis, bilateral linkages contracted sharply, reflecting the surge in counterparty risk and the de-leveraging processes. Nonetheless, our analysis suggests that even after this process, vulnerabilities remained in the euro area financial system, while a more diversified portfolio of cross-border exposures might mitigate the shock effects. We identify sectors which are most relevant for the propagation of financial shocks in the Macro-Network.     

跨国银行并表监管与金融隐私权的冲突及制衡

在金融全球化、金融一体化、金融自由化和金融集团化的趋势下,包括发达国家和发展中国家在内的很多实力雄厚的大银行纷纷走出国门,进行全球扩张和跨国并购,成为国际金融市场上的跨国银行.这种跨国银行的产生和经营给普通的银行监管带来挑战,为了避免对跨国银行监管漏洞的存在从而危及整个国际金融体系的稳健,巴塞尔委员会提出了跨国银行并表监管的核心监管原则.但是在母国具体实施跨国银行并表监管过程中,会遇到东道国保护金融隐私权的法律障碍.因此,由于金融信息披露和金融信息交流所引发的并表监管和金融隐私权保护之间的冲突是不可避免的,为了整个国际金融体系的稳定就必须对两者的冲突进行价值和机制制衡.     

The formation of financial networks

Modern banking systems are highly interconnected. Despite various benefits, linkages between banks carry the risk of contagion. In this article, I investigate whether banks can commit ex ante to mutually insure each other, when there is contagion risk in the financial system. I model banks' decisions to share this risk through bilateral agreements. A financial network that allows losses to be shared among various counterparties arises endogenously. I characterize the probability of systemic risk, defined as the event that contagion occurs conditional on one bank failing, in equilibrium interbank networks. I show that there exist equilibria in which contagion does not occur.     

Assessing systemic risk using interbank exposures in the global banking system

This paper contributes to the literature on systemic risk by examining the network structure of bilateral exposures in the global banking system. The global interbank market constitutes a major part of the global banking system. The market has a hierarchical network structure, composed of the national or jurisdictional area's local markets and the cross-border interbank market. First, we estimate the bilateral exposures matrix using aggregate financial data on loans and deposits from Bankscope and analyze the interconnectedness in the market using network centrality measures. Subsequently, for the model analysis, we apply the Eisenberg–Noe framework to a multi-period setting. In this framework, bank defaults are classified into stand-alone defaults and contagious defaults. The banks in our sample (i.e., the top 202 banks with more than $50 billion in total assets) comprise a major part of this global banking system. The main findings are as follows: The theoretical network analysis using network centrality measures showed that most of the banks designated as global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) play a central role in the global interbank market. The theoretical default analysis showed a few contagious defaults triggered by the basic defaults during and after the global financial crisis. Our stress test proved that many G-SIBs theoretically caused 1–6 contagious defaults. Our methodology would assist in the development of a monitoring system by the respective supervisory authorities as well as in the implementation of bank-internal stress tests of default contagion.     

跨境金融:驱动因素、结构特征与未来路径

跨境金融的驱动因素和结构特征是理论界和实务界关注的重要话题。在当前复杂的国际经济金融形势下,厘清全球跨境金融的规律特征,对我国更好地利用“两个市场、两种资源”,防范外部金融风险具有重要意义。2008年国际金融危机以来,在经济周期、全球流动性、金融结构和监管政策等驱动因素的影响下,全球跨境金融活动呈现规模下降、结构调整、流向分化、主体切换和风险变化等特征。同时,银行跨境业务呈现综合化趋势,数字化转型提速,经营稳健性明显增强。我国跨境金融规模稳步增长,对国际收支的影响持续增强,在全球资金循环中的份额不断提高。未来,随着我国经济转型和对外开放步伐的加快,跨境金融的规模和结构还将发生深刻变化,风险日趋复杂。应引导形成与我国经济金融发展特征相匹配的跨境资金结构,平衡扩大开放与风险防控的关系,充分发挥银行业在跨境金融领域的“比较优势”。     

金融结构如何影响了外资进入方式选择？

随着全球价值链进入深度重构的关键时期,金融结构对于一国外资进入方式选择的重要性日益凸显,本文采用65个国家2003—2017年跨国面板数据,从理论和实证两个层面系统探讨了金融结构与一国外资进入方式选择之间的关系。研究表明:(1)无论是发达国家还是发展中国家东道国,市场主导型金融结构均有助于外资以跨国并购方式进入东道国,但发达国家正向促进作用显著大于发展中国家,克服了内生性和经济波动的影响后,结论依旧稳健。(2)进一步机制检验结果发现,技术创新引致和国家风险管控是金融结构影响外资进入方式选择的重要渠道。其中,金融结构的国家风险渠道机制,主要通过降低经济金融风险来实现。(3)此外,引入国家营商环境指数发现,营商环境的改善不仅对外资以跨国并购方式进入具有直接促进作用,而且能间接调节金融市场对外资进入结构优化的提升作用。本文研究为我国深化金融供给侧结构性改革,改善营商环境,进而实现引资结构优化提供了政策启示。     

Global portfolio investment network and stock market comovement

This paper examines the impact of financial connectedness of countries on international stock market comovement. In recent decades, cross-border capital flows have increased dramatically, and I use bilateral cross-border portfolio holdings to create a global portfolio investment network. Using network analysis, I examine the effect of a country's centrality within this network on stock market comovement while also controlling for the country's trade connectedness. The results show that stock markets of countries that occupy highly central positions within the global portfolio investment network exhibit higher comovement after I control for the level of trade connectedness. Countries that simultaneously occupy highly central positions in both financial and trade networks display even higher levels of stock market comovement. Moreover, linkages derived from total portfolio holdings matter just as much as or more than those derived only from equity linkages.     

金融同业活动与实体企业经营风险——来自地区层面同业存单业务的证据

本文研究了地区层面金融同业活动对实体企业经营风险的影响。基于各省份金融机构开启同业存单业务的研究表明,地区层面金融同业活动显著提升了当地上市企业股价大幅下跌的风险。进一步研究表明,随着同业存单业务的发展,当地上市企业债务融资成本和风险水平有所上升,而业绩表现和市场价值有所下降。上述发现表明,企业融资链条变长后,信贷市场道德风险上升,部分企业因风险偏好增强导致经营风险上升,更容易突然出现负面事件而导致股价大幅下跌。本文的发现揭示了金融同业活动存在监管规避的可能性及其影响实体企业的潜在路径,凸显了完善金融监管以更好服务实体经济发展的重要现实意义。     

金融同业活动与实体企业经营风险——来自地区层面同业存单业务的证据

本文研究了地区层面金融同业活动对实体企业经营风险的影响。基于各省份金融机构开启同业存单业务的研究表明,地区层面金融同业活动显著提升了当地上市企业股价大幅下跌的风险。进一步研究表明,随着同业存单业务的发展,当地上市企业债务融资成本和风险水平有所上升,而业绩表现和市场价值有所下降。上述发现表明,企业融资链条变长后,信贷市场道德风险上升,部分企业因风险偏好增强导致经营风险上升,更容易突然出现负面事件而导致股价大幅下跌。本文的发现揭示了金融同业活动存在监管规避的可能性及其影响实体企业的潜在路径,凸显了完善金融监管以更好服务实体经济发展的重要现实意义。     

我国银行金融数据跨境流动的法律规制

随着全球范围内银行金融数据跨境流动日益频繁,欧盟和美国在整体数据跨境流动规则下,形成了各自不同的银行金融数据跨境流动规制模式。我国也在自身国情基础上,建立了将"数据主权、数据保护与发展数字经济相统一"的整体数据跨境流动规制理念,但仍存在不同部门的规制思路有待进一步协调,以及对不同类型的银行金融数据跨境流动进行规制的针对性有待进一步提高等问题。本文认为,未来对银行金融数据的跨境流动的规制应在明确金融监管部门特殊规制权限的基础上,建立以下有区别的规制模式:针对基于商业需求而产生的银行金融数据跨境流动,应当在"知情、同意"的前提下,原则上允许跨境流动,并实行备案管理;针对基于数据流入国监管机构要求而产生的跨境流动,除存在国际协定或其他国际合作形式外,原则上不予认可。     

影子银行的发展及其监管

自上个世纪末以来,影子银行快速发展,资产规模已接近传统银行体系。影子银行的风险被认为是造成2008年全球金融危机的重要原因,各国和国际金融机构近年纷纷出台加强影子银行监管的措施,试图改变过去监管缺失的状态。和国外影子银行以资产证券化为核心不同,我国影子银行的主要功能是作为融资渠道。因此,我国要借鉴国外影子发展和监管的经验,正确看待影子银行的作用,引导其规范发展并将其作为银行体系的有益补充。     

The impact of foreign stock markets on macroeconomic dynamics in open economies: A structural estimation

With the increased international financial integration in recent years, bilateral financial linkages between countries may have a growing influence on their real economies. This paper employs a structural two-country New Keynesian model, which incorporates a cross-border wealth channel, to estimate the effect that foreign stock market fluctuations may have on macroeconomic variables in open economy countries.The model is estimated using Bayesian methods on a sample of open economies that can potentially be affected by changes in a larger foreign stock market: Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Ireland, Austria, and the Netherlands. The estimation allows for deviations from rational expectations and for learning by economic agents.The empirical results indicate important cross-country wealth effects for Ireland and Austria, from fluctuations in the U.S. and U.K. and in the U.S. and German stock markets, respectively; the wealth effect is largest in Ireland. The data favor, instead, specifications with no significant wealth effect for the remaining countries. Foreign stock price fluctuations, however, still play a role by affecting domestic expectations about future output gaps in all countries in the sample.     

对外开放中的金融稳定与金融安全：一个文献综述

目前国内外学界就金融风险、金融危机以及金融脆弱性等著述和理论探讨非常多,但至今也没有形成关于金融稳定以及金融安全的公认的统一的概括与界定.诸多研究文献提出了金融稳定与金融危机的衡量指标体系,并创立了金融危机预警系统,并从各个角度提出了防范金融危机的措施.存款保险制度对于金融稳定的作用,理论界存在争论,但诸多家选择了该制度,并保持存款者的信心,防止金融传染.从研究趋势来看,从宏观面上时金融稳定以及金融安全的研究,还有待深入.     

The patterns of cross-border bank mergers and shareholdings in OECD countries

In recent years there has been a surge in mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in all sectors of economic activity. Cross-border operations have followed this trend, creating global companies operating in all major world markets. In this paper we study the pattern of cross-border M&As in the banking industry relative to the non-financial sector of the economy and investigate which factors make it more likely that a bank will expand its activities abroad. We find that cross-border M&As are rarer in banking than in other sectors, possibly owing to the importance of information asymmetries in banking relationships and to regulatory restrictions. Using data on almost 2500 banks from 29 OECD countries, we also show that the most significant features of banks with foreign equity interests relate to efficiency: banks with cross-border shareholdings are on average larger, more profitable, and based in countries with a more highly developed banking market.     

Restructuring,consolidation and competition in Latin American banking markets

This study examines the competitive conditions in the banking industries of eleven Latin American countries for the period 1993–2000. For these countries, the time interval under examination corresponds to an era characterized by substantial reforms to restructure their banking systems, increased consolidation and foreign bank penetration. The banks in our sample are found to be earning their revenues as if operating under monopolistic competition, as in many other developed and emerging financial systems. The results indicate that, overall, market concentration is not significantly related with competitive conduct. At the country level, however, we do observe a decline in competition for Brazil, Chile, and Venezuela in late 1990s which may be attributable to increased consolidation. Further, we observe that deregulation and opening up of the financial markets for foreign participation serves as an important catalyst to increase the competitiveness of banking markets. Higher degree of competition in the sector, in return, is associated with reduced bank margins and profitability but improved cost efficiency.