European Agriculture in Transition

The uncertainties facing European agriculture have rarely been greater. The combination of the Reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), the agricultural negotiations in the Uruguay Round of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the impact on agricultural trade of the liberalisation of the Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies produce a greater set of challenges than at any other time this century. These three sets of issues have four features in common. First, they are all of such a scale that they could have signifcant effects on the economic circumstances facing European farmers. Second, they are intensely political and thus the outcome is extremely difficult to predict. Third, they all involve processes which will span several years, they are not once-off events. Fourth, they all move in the direction of increasing competitive pressures on West European agriculture. The paper proceeds in four parts. Parts one to three summarise the main components of each of the three issues and the scale and timetable of the changes they may bring about. The fourth part contains a discussion of the interactions between the three issues and assessment of the direction and magnitude of the effects of the changes. Anticipating the conclusions, imagine agriculture in the EC (and, mutatis mutandi, EFTA) as a basket of sikworm cocoons! Our farmers have already been through several stages of their metamorphosis. Having gorged themselves for decades on the mulberry leaves of taxpayer-provided subsidies, they are now cosily embraced in the tangled and extremely protective web of the CAP. For sound internal and external reasons, this protective shield of silk is being unwound. The result will be an industry which is more exposed to the elements. The environment facing farmers will be less certain, more variable, there will be more competition and less protection against predators. Many of the moths will not survive the harsh climate outside the cocoon. Equally, however the larger, better nourished and fitter ones will make it. They will ensure the survival of the species. But as is often the case in nature, many may perish in order that the rest survive. It is also likely to be the case that fewer of those who care for and supply to the silkworms will be required for this smaller, stronger, more productive surviving population.     

发达国家农业现代化经验对我国农业发展的启示

发达国家的农业现代化是借助于制度、市场和科技三者来实现的。本文讨论了美国、日本和西欧三种农业现代化模式,结合对我国资源禀赋、科技条件和经济发展状况等方面的分析,提出我国发展农业现代化要通过农业产业化、发展机械化、提高农业从业人员素质等来实现。     

东北地区现代农业发展模式探析

通过对东北地区农业发展特点和现存问题的分析,提出东北地区农业发展应实行土地适度规模的现代农业发展的模式。要实现现代农业的发展目标,仅靠农业内部是无法解决的,必须实行城乡互动发展战略,即通过促进农村剩余劳动力的转移、土地的合理流动、提高农户与市场对接,以提高经济效益等措施来实现。     

International diffusion of gains from biotechnology and the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy

This paper analyses the impact of adopting or rejecting genetically modified (GM) crops in the European Union, taking into account the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). In this paper the productivity impact of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) differs across crops, taking factor biased technology change into account. The transfer of knowledge across countries is modelled as a process of endogenous knowledge spill-overs. Analysis with a multi-region applied general equilibrium model shows that the CAP protects farm income and production despite non-adoption of the more productive GM crops in the EU. The EU will forgo substantial benefits in terms of economic welfare if it bans GM imports.     

创意农业的发展理念与模式研究

创意产业发展的意义已远远超过其作为一个新兴产业在产业层面上的作用,更在于它对传统经济发展模式的颠覆和创新.农业是一个典型的传统产业,运用创意产业的思维模式进行创新和发展,能够提升附加值,优化产业结构,转变农业经济发展方式,促进城乡互融互动.     

欧洲农机产业化以及对兵团农用装备制造业发展的建议

农机工业是目前兵团支柱工业中最落后、薄弱的产业.该文主要就赴芬兰、丹麦、德国以及法国等对农机制造产业及技贸考察学习情况进行了分析与总结,并在了解国内外农机工业的发展方向和生产经营模式的基础上,进而提出了进一步培育兵团农机制造业的骨干企业,提升其研发生产能力;农机企业要坚持一品一厂或一品多型的产品发展思路;要积极做好招商引资,借助外力发展农机工业等具体建议.     

天津沿海都市型农业可持续发展模式选择

都市农业的经济份额虽然不断减小,但生态、社会和服务功能却日益突出,因而其可持续发展有着更为深远的影响。天津沿海都市型农业发展面临着资源短缺、环境污染、要素机会成本高昂等问题,同时拥有区位交通优势、科技人才优势、农业生态系统多样性等优势条件。大力发展设施农业、高科技农业、休闲观光农业、加工物流农业、生态绿色农业是推进天津沿海都市型农业可持续发展的必然选择。     

期权定价与风险投资决策及订单农业合约

本文主要就期权定价方法在评价风险投资和指导签定订单农业合同的应用进行初步研究。期权定介方法被广泛地应用于包括公司债券、可变利率抵押、保险、投资时间和税法在内的金融证券和合同等广阔领域。     

当前的农村经济发展形势与任务

一、农业与农村经济发展出现了重大转机 近几年农业、农村经济,无论足形式还是内容越来越复杂,也越来越难概括,更不能简单地用好与不好来定论。概括地讲,从近两年农业、农村经济以及农村社会发展的情况来看,可以概括为六个方面。     

关注地球日 关注人类共同的未来

文章简要回顾了地球日活动的发展历程,分析了目前地球自然资源和环境破坏的严重状况,指出人类社会在高速发展的同时,也在对地球造成不可逆转的伤害,而地球环境的恶化,最终将毁灭人类自身.由此,文章呼吁人们树立可持续的发展观念,为了人类共同的未来而关心爱护地球.     

Agricultural and Economy‐Wide Effects of European Enlargement: Modelling the Common Agricultural Policy

The economic impact of extending the Common Agricultural Policy to the Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) has become a major issue in the European enlargement debate. This paper provides an assessment of the economy‐wide effects of European enlargement using a global general equilibrium model where special attention is given to modelling the instruments of the Common Agricultural Policy, the Agenda 2000 proposal and the EU budget. The results indicate a substantial potential for increasing agricultural production in the CEEC. The EU budget will increase significantly and the transfers from EU taxpayers to farmers in the CEEC result in significant welfare gains in the new member countries. In spite of these important transfers the macroeconomic costs for the EU are found to be limited.     

订单农业和粮食产业化经营模式研究

编者按:本文是国家粮食局下达给四川省粮食局的粮食购销政策研究课题,约3万字。为了保证研究报告的完整性,本刊特增加页码(新闻出版局核定56页),将此文一次刊出,以飨读者。欢迎读者就此文提出修改意见,或参与讨论。     

四川农产品出口对农业经济增长的影响分析——基于凯恩斯模型与VAR模型

利用四川1998-2013年的农产品对外贸易数据,首先利用开放条件下的凯恩斯模型测算了农产品出口对农业经济增长的拉动作用;应用向量自回归模型(VAR)分析了农产品对外贸易与农业经济增长的关系,计量结果支持出口导向经济增长假设,农产品出口和农业经济增长存在长期均衡关系,农产品出口单向促进农业经济增长。     

非线性农业部门经济模型在农业政策分析中的运用

本文通过海南农业部门模型，企业一种农业政策分析和决策分析工具。其目的在于创建一个区域性非线性农业部门模型，为省级农业政策分析和预测决策提供一种较系统的、科学的定量化分析工具。     

The Amenity and Disamenity Impacts of Agriculture: Estimates from a Hedonic Pricing Model

The positive and negative externalities from farmland are increasingly a focus of public policy discussion about agriculture and land use. A GIS-based hedonic pricing model shows that agricultural open space increases nearby residential property values, but larger-scale animal operations and mushroom production have negative impacts. Animal production facilities with as few as 200 animal equivalent units reduce nearby property values, but larger facilities do not necessarily generate larger impacts. Because they tend to occur together, the negative impacts of animal agriculture and the positive impacts of open space must be simultaneously modeled to avoid omitted variable bias.     

我国农村剩余劳动力流动模型及其管理含义

通过对我国的劳动力价格歧视、劳动力进入的制度成本、城乡福利差异等劳动力流动规模影响因素的分析，建立了我国农村剩余劳动力流动模型。模型表明，歧视性的二元户籍制度无助于缓解农村剩余劳动力对城市的就业压力，反而造成城市劳动力市场的就业容量损失，降低了整个社会的福利水平。     

绿色贸易壁垒对我国农产品出口的影响与对策

在经济全球化和贸易自由化程度日益加强的同时,一种新型的非关税壁垒———“绿色贸易壁垒”登上了国际贸易舞台,成为最隐蔽、最棘手、最难对付的贸易障碍之一。加入世贸组织以来,我国农产品出口遭遇了绿色壁垒的强烈冲击,直接和间接的损失较为惨重。针对这种局面,必须积极采取措施以跨越绿色贸易壁垒,扩大农产品出口。     

对特色农业、产业化经营与农业竞争力的理论分析

提高农业竞争力是市场农业发展的主要目标和我国农业应对入世挑战的迫切需要。理论分析表明,发展特色农业可以显著地提高农业竞争力,而特色农业要做大做强做优离不开产业化经营。本文通过对特色农业、产业化经营与农业竞争力关系的理论分析,得出了这样的结论：特色农业 产业化经营=农业竞争力。     

生态农业发展模式研究——以江苏省泰州市为例

生态农业是现代农业的重要组成部分,是实现农业农村经济可持续发展的重要途径。文章以江苏省泰州市为例,分析不同生态农业发展模式的特点、成效及推广影响因素。研究认为:投入成本较高、政策扶持不够、人力资源紧张、配套设施欠缺、环境支撑薄弱是制约生态农业发展模式创新及推广的主要因素,要牢固树立五大发展理念,通过加强统筹规划建设、加大政策扶持力度、提升人才队伍素质、加强生态环境治理等有力举措,大力创新和推广生态农业发展模式,加快发展优质高效现代生态农业。