Forecasting United States–Asia international message telephone service

This study compares forecasts of US international message telephone service (IMTS) traffic using several relative mean squared error statistics. The forecasts are obtained from time-series extrapolation, univariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), error correction and vector autoregressive models. The models are estimated on annual US IMTS outgoing traffic data for six US–Asia bilateral markets for the period 1964 to 1993. No single approach provides best forecasts. However, forecast evaluation statistics indicate that econometric models generally outperform the alternatives.     

Developing cost management in customer–supplier relationships: three case studies

This study describes cost management development projects in three customer–supplier relationships and analyzes these projects from the perspective of relationships. Differences in suppliers’ objectives, actions taken, and results gained in the projects were found in the explorative study, although the customer's objective was the same in all cases. The use of cost information depended on the balance of power between firms, on the trust between personnel, and on the volume of the firms’ mutual business.     

Positioning of the stakeholders in the interaction project management–project marketing: A case of a coconstructed industrial project

Based on a business‐to‐business (B‐to‐B) case within the automotive industry, this study proposes logics (constructivist and determinist, respectively) of protagonists and highlights the complexity of their dynamics during the successive project's phases. The concept of milieu will emphasize the complex business in which project marketing takes place; notably, it allows better identification of relevant relationships. Our article focuses on this concept of milieu with regard to the interactions between project marketing and project management actors during project phases. In particular, this article underlines the difference and the accommodation between the dynamics of interaction and the dynamics of congruence of marketing and management logics.     

Building long-term orientation in buyer–supplier relationships: The moderating role of culture

This research investigates buyer–supplier relationships in international markets. Research and practice have shown that buyer–supplier relationships benefit when partners to the relationship exhibit a long-term orientation. The extant literature suggests that a buyer's trust of a supplier and the supplier's performance affect the buyer's long-term orientation toward the relationship. We propose that the relative effects of trust and performance on long-term orientation are moderated by culture – specifically the individualism/collectivism dimension. Hypotheses are tested on data from two individualist and two collectivist cultures, using responses from over 600 purchasing professionals in the United States, Anglophone Canada, Francophone Canada and Mexico. Taken together, empirical findings suggest that cultural differences warrant consideration in developing successful purchasing strategies.     

On the interpretation of cointegration in the linear–quadratic inventory model

The traditional formulation of the linear–quadratic inventory model with unit roots predicts cointegration between inventories and sales. That formulation implies that marginal production costs and the marginal benefits of inventories are both tending to ∞, and the cointegrating coefficient reflects the optimal trade-off between these competing factors. This paper suggests a reformulation of the problem in which marginal production costs and marginal inventory benefits are both stationary and in which the cointegrating coefficient is the same as the value that characterizes the target inventory level in the cost function.     

Moderation by goal commitment of the feedback–performance relationship: Theoretical explanation and preliminary study

This paper presents goal commitment as one stage of a multidimensional goal striving process that affects feedback acquisition, processing, and use during the achievement of performance goals. Specifically, this paper argues that higher goal commitment leads to more effective acquisition, processing, and use of feedback that in turn fosters higher performance than does lower goal commitment. To provide a preliminary test of this proposition, data from an earlier field study conducted by the author and colleagues [J. Occup. Organ. Psychol. 72 (1999) 107] were used to examine the moderating effects of goal commitment on the relationship between perceived task feedback amount and work performance of 196 rehabilitation counselors. Results were consistent with this proposed interaction, as perceived task feedback amount had a positive linear relationship with work performance for higher goal commitment rehabilitation counselors and a negative linear relationship with performance for lower goal commitment counselors. The discussion urges researchers to broaden their views of goal commitment beyond the goal difficulty–performance relationship and to devote more attention to moderators of the feedback–performance relationship. Directions for future research and practical implications are also discussed.     

EXPLAINING RISING INEQUALITY: SKILL‐BIASED TECHNICAL CHANGE AND NORTH–SOUTH TRADE*

Abstract We review the ‘skill‐biased technological change (SBTC) versus North–South trade (NST)’ debate in order to explain widening wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers. The traditional explanations based on exogenous SBTC and on the North–South Heckscher–Ohlin–Samuelson approach, as well as the early estimates that diagnosed a clear prevalence of the former, are firstly exposed and discussed. A presentation is then made of the recent theoretical literature that endogenizes SBTC, introduces new channels of impacts from NST, and combines both explanations. Finally, the current estimates show that (i) both explanations are relevant, (ii) their impacts differ according to industries and countries, (iii) outsourcing is the main vector of impact from NST and (iv) SBTC and NST interact.     

Dynamic control of rural–urban migration

This study investigates the optimal urbanization control of an underdeveloped economy by specifying a simple dynamic rural–urban model in which the urban sector bears both an intertemporal positive externality and a simultaneous negative externality. The dynamic optimization problem is solved for the political intervention of the central government in an intersectoral population distribution with taxes and subsidies. Our analysis provides the following results: (i) a big-push policy that leads an economy to a higher-income steady state with urbanization is not necessarily desirable if the government cannot borrow money at a sufficiently low interest rate; (ii) in order to sustain an appropriate urbanization speed, urbanization control policy should have a switch: the urban sector should be subsidized in order to accelerate rural–urban migration in early stages of development, and taxed to decelerate and eventually cease the migration in later stages.     

A characterization of equilibria in the Groves–Ledyard mechanism

In this paper, we characterize all interior and boundary equilibria of the Groves–Ledyard mechanism for a large class of economies and determine their stability properties. We show that the mechanism admits three types of equilibria: a symmetric, efficient, stable interior equilibrium, a large set of asymmetric, efficient, unstable, interior equilibria, and a large set of asymmetric, inefficient, stable boundary equilibria. We further show that asymmetric equilibria fail to exist for large values of the punishment parameter or if the message space is bounded sufficiently. The boundary equilibria previously had not been located nor had the instability of the asymmetric equilibria been known. Interestingly, the stability of the symmetric equilibrium rests on two dynamics that individually produce instability.     

What moves housing markets: A variance decomposition of the rent–price ratio

We apply the dynamic Gordon growth model to the housing market in 23 US metropolitan areas, the four Census regions, and the nation from 1975 to 2007. The model allows the rent–price ratio at each date to be split into the expected present discounted values of rent growth, real interest rates, and a housing premium over real rates. We show that housing premia are variable and forecastable and account for a significant fraction of rent–price ratio volatility at the national and local levels, and that covariances among the three components damp fluctuations in rent–price ratios. Thus, explanations of house-price dynamics that focus only on interest rate movements and ignore these covariances can be misleading. These results are similar to those found for stocks and bonds.     

Beyond win–win: A syncretic theory on corporate stakeholder engagement in sustainable development

This article explores the concept of syncretism to articulate the construct of a novel theoretical approach that may help to accelerate progress in developing substantively more sustainable business activities. One reason why the integration of environmental and social responsibility in business has been so difficult to achieve in practice is that it is not just a battle of competing business logics but a battle of faiths. The concept of syncretism, with its roots in religious synthesis, may be far more relevant and useful than conventional approaches to combining the two, which rarely seem to rise above a “win–win” appeal to logic. The connectionist logic of syncretism may show us a way beyond paradigmatic conformity in business sustainability research so that scholars with diverse theoretical backgrounds might have a common ground for discussion, find constructive connections, and engage in potentially more insightful and creative interactions to develop our understanding of corporate sustainability.     

Robust min–max portfolio strategies for rival forecast and risk scenarios

We consider an extension of the Markowitz mean–variance optimization framework to multiple return and risk scenarios. It is well known that asset return forecasts and risk estimates are inherently inaccurate. The method proposed provides a means for considering rival representations of the future. The optimal portfolio is computed, simultaneously with the worst case, to take account of all rival scenarios. This is a min-max strategy which is essentially equivalent to a robust pooling of the scenarios. Robustness is ensured by the noninferiority of min–max. For example, a basic worst-case optimal return is guaranteed in view of multiple return scenarios. If robustness happens to have too high a cost, guided by the min–max pooling, it is also possible to explore other pooling alternatives. A min–max algorithm is used to solve the problem and illustrate the robust character of min–max with return and risk scenarios. We study the properties of the min–max risk–return frontier and compare with the potentially suboptimal worst-case where the investment strategy and the worst case are computed separately.     

Mortality Forecasting and Trend Shifts: an Application of the Lee–Carter Model to Swedish Mortality Data*

In this paper we examine how the Lee–Carter model fares with Swedish data for the period 1901–2001 and for segments of this period. We have choosen to censor ages less than age 40 as those ages only are of marginal interest to the forecast. At age 40 some 98 to 99 percent of the birth cohorts are survivors. In the study we only consider the unweighted K¹ estimates. The Lee–Carter model provides very good fits to the data. When splitting up the base period there seems to be an interaction beween the age and time components of the model. In order to deal with the different phases of falling mortality for males and females possibly one should choose the past 25 years as a base in the model. Selecting the base period is however a judgmental issue depending on the main focus of the forecast. Is it long‐term, short‐term or, as in Sweden, a combination of both.?     

Evaluation of American option prices in a path integral framework using Fourier–Hermite series expansions

In this paper we review the path integral technique which has wide applications in statistical physics and relate it to the backward recursion technique which is widely used for the evaluation of derivative securities. We formulate the pricing of equity options, both European and American, using the path integral framework. Discretising in the time variable and using expansions in Fourier–Hermite series for the continuous representation of the underlying asset price, we show how these options can be evaluated in the path integral framework. For American options, the solution technique facilitates the accurate determination of the early exercise boundary as part of the solution. Additionally, the continuous representation of the state variable allows the relatively accurate and efficient evaluation of the option prices and the delta hedge ratio.     

A multi-level model for studying the context and impact of work–family policies and culture in organizations

The purpose of this paper was to provide an integrative multi-level framework that could help scholars study the impact of work–family policies on individual employees as well as assist practitioners in making informed decisions regarding the adoption, design, implementation, and allowance of these policies. This multi-level model illustrates the various macro- and mesolevel factors that may influence individual perceptions (i.e., equity perceptions, negotiation power, sense of entitlement) regarding work–family policies. By providing such a model, a common language may be developed for researchers from various disciplines studying this issue and better insight into the various linkages that are involved. Additionally, the framework can provide HR practitioners with a deeper understanding of the contextual factors that may influence the effectiveness of work–family policies in their organizations.     

Catching-up and inflation in Europe: Balassa–Samuelson, Engel's Law and other culprits

This study analyses the impact of economic catching-up on annual inflation rates in the European Union with a special focus on the new member countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Using an array of estimation methods, we show that the Balassa-Samuelson effect is not an important driver of inflation rates. By contrast, we find that the initial price level and regulated prices strongly affect inflation outcomes in a nonlinear manner and that the extension of Engel's Law may hold during periods of very fast growth. We interpret these results as a sign that price level convergence comes from goods, market and non-market service prices. Furthermore, we find that the Phillips curve flattens with a decline in the inflation rate, that inflation is more persistent and that commodity prices have a stronger effect on inflation in a higher inflation environment.     

The adoption of Firm-Hosted Online Communities: an empirical investigation into the role of service quality and social interactions

Online communities are a powerful device for collaborative creativity and innovation. Developments in Web 2.0 technologies have given rise to such interactions through firm-hosted online communities (FHOCs) – firm-run online information services that also provide self-help to a community. We devise a model that seeks to explain the factors that encourage people to become members of a FHOC and test the model using structural equation modelling based on data collected from 511 users of a FHOC. The study finds that: (a) an understanding of Perceived Usefulness (PU) plays a mediating role between Behavioural Intention (BI) to adopt FHOC and Trust, as well as Interface design; b) Networking among users has an indirect effect on BI; and c) design of the Interface has a direct influence on BI. A managerial implication is that Networking plays a role in the way supplementary services, including blogs and discussion forums, are perceived. Theoretically, when service quality is decomposed into components such as core services and supplementary services, it also positively influences PU.     

Dose–response modelling for bivariate covariates with and without a spike at zero: theory and application to binary outcomes

In epidemiology and clinical research, there is often a proportion of unexposed individuals resulting in zero values of exposure, meaning that some individuals are not exposed and those exposed have some continuous distribution. Examples are smoking or alcohol consumption. We will call these variables with a spike at zero (SAZ). In this paper, we performed a systematic investigation on how to model covariates with a SAZ and derived theoretical odds ratio functions for selected bivariate distributions. We consider the bivariate normal and bivariate log normal distribution with a SAZ. Both confounding and effect modification can be elegantly described by formalizing the covariance matrix given the binary outcome variable Y. To model the effect of these variables, we use a procedure based on fractional polynomials first introduced by Royston and Altman (1994, Applied Statistics 43: 429–467) and modified for the SAZ situation (Royston and Sauerbrei, 2008, Multivariable model‐building: a pragmatic approach to regression analysis based on fractional polynomials for modelling continuous variables, Wiley; Becher et al., 2012, Biometrical Journal 54: 686–700). We aim to contribute to theory, practical procedures and application in epidemiology and clinical research to derive multivariable models for variables with a SAZ. As an example, we use data from a case–control study on lung cancer.     

Roles, resources and benefits of intermediate organizations supporting triple helix collaborative R&D: The case of Precarn

Triple helix collaborations involving academia, government and industry are believed vital to the success of regional technology development. However, due to differences in culture, organizational functioning and incentive mechanisms as well as the different objectives of the various actors involved, such collaboration is difficult to create and sustain. A case study of the organization called Precarn, a collaborative, which manages a program of triple helix projects, is used here to illustrate how an intermediate organization can help triple helix partnerships towards the successful commercialization of new technologies. The paper contributes to the literature on managing R&D collaborations and innovation networks using organization theories to explain why and how collaborative intermediate organizations can facilitate successful technological adoption and commercialization across innovation networks.     

Lock-in situations in supply chains: A social exchange theoretic study of sourcing arrangements in buyer–supplier relationships

Social exchange theory is used to gain a better understanding of the relationship between a buyer and a supplier that is characterized by lock-in situations. We begin by reviewing the theoretical foundations of social exchange theory. Next, we use an illustrative multinational business example from a Danish Business Group to demonstrate the complexities of the lock-in situation. Conjectures related to lock-in behaviors are initially developed and then examined by means of a game-theoretic model. The analysis provides a basis for the development of propositions which are examined employing a behavioral experiment. The results indicate that the optimal pricing strategy of the supplier is to lower the price with increasing demand and the optimal investment intensity of the buyer decreases with increasing demand. The paper concludes by presenting directions for future research.