Resource allocation, equity and public risk: Dying one at a time vs dying all together

This paper focuses on the evaluation, from an individual and societal perspective, of risk in terms of possible loss of life due to an exposure to two different types of events over a period of time. The two types are: risk of death from a catastrophic event (a sudden death of many people in a disaster at a yet unknown point in time) expected to occur during a planning period, or risk of death from another event (e.g. disease, road accident, etc) which claims fewer lives each year. but for which the expected total number of deaths over the planning period is equal to the expected number of deaths from the catastrophic event. Our analysis considers the extreme case in which these two types of events have the same probabilities of death every year and the same expected number of fatalities over the planning period. The individual's decision problem is described using a von-Neumann Morgenstern (vNM) utility function. The model suggests that the choice between these types of events depends on the value of the following variables: the probability of death over the planning period, the length of the planning period, the individual's time preference pattern, and the utility of being in different anxiety states. Stochastic extensions that may direct the public decision making process (involving aggregated preferences) are discussed. We also discuss issues of implementation.     

Mathematical methods of optimization for multi-objective transportation systems

Transportation systems have multi-objective functions and there are multi-factor decision situations. A general mathematical optimization model for such systems is developed which has broad applications for the planning, system design and evaluation of many transportation systems. Three types of solution techniques are discussed. For multi-objective linear programs, a solution is obtained which satisfies the decision maker's preferences and optimization from the decision maker's point of view is considered. A goal programming solution technique is given when goals for the system can be defined. If this is not possible, an overall utility function is defined on the various objective functions and a concept of additive utilities is explored and a parametric programming solution is given.     

A preference foundation for constant loss aversion

Following prospect theory and in particular the concept of loss aversion, introduced by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), we consider decision making under risk in which the decision maker’s preferences depend on a reference outcome. An outcome below this reference outcome is regarded as resulting from a loss: a loss decreases the decision maker’s basic utility more than a comparable gain increases this utility. An elegant and simple way to model this phenomenon was proposed by Shalev (2002): the utility of an outcome below the reference outcome is obtained from the basic utility by subtracting a multiple of the loss in basic utility: this multiple, the loss aversion coefficient, is constant across different reference outcomes. We provide a preference foundation for this loss aversion model.     

基于语言评度算子的分包商选择研究

从建筑总承包企业的角度出发,分析了影响分包商选择的各项因素,以此为基础构建了分包商承包能力评价的多层次指标体系,提出利用语言信息算子(LWM算子和HLWA算子)对分包商进行评价和排序,算例证明这是一种科学合理、可操作性强的分包商评价与选择方法。     

Assessment and development centers: judgment biases and risks of using idiographic and nomothetic approaches to collecting information on people to be evaluated and trained in organizations

Assessment center and development center are two procedures that organizations can use in order to evaluate and train people. They make use of different methods and techniques, some (i.e. interviews) descending from the so called idiographic (or clinical) approach, and some (i.e. standardized instruments) descending from the so called nomothetic (or psychometric) approach. The idea is that different methods and techniques allow assessors and decision makers to collect as much information as possible, in order to come to an integrated judgment of people to be evaluated. Regarding this idea, psychological research has already discovered that it is not the amount of information collected that makes the difference between expert and non-expert assessors and decision makers. Besides, too much information is difficult to manage; and while it increases the confidence of assessors and decision makers about their judgments, it unfortunately does not increase their accuracy as well, since relevant information is mixed with irrelevant one and this makes it difficult to decide which one to consider and which one not. So, the article wants to be a critical review of what psychological science has found, and not so recently, in the field of assessment and development of psychological characteristics, in terms of risks and biases. Finally, it wants to underline the fact that, in spite of risks and biases, nowadays different methods and techniques are actually used to assess one person’s psychological characteristics, which is certainly questionable but also methodologically appropriate if they are appropriately used.     

应急物流运输方案的决策模型研究

近几年来,应急物流越来越受到人们的瞩目。为了进一步加强应急物流的研究,本文从微观角度构建应急物资运输方案决策模型方向进行探索。鉴于有关应急物资运输方案决策的大量模型缺乏对风险决策的考虑,本文以运筹学风险决策工具效用函数为基础,提出在应急物流中面对的风险决策问题,以及如何利用效用函数构建模型进行决策才能达到目标的最优化,并与其他决策工具得出的结果相比较进一步完善模型。     

Implementation of continuous risk utility assessment: The total hip replacement decision

Application or utility theory to medical decision-making problems has received considerable attention in the decision analysis literature but has not led to widespread clinical use. Potential reasons for this stem from the fact that standard preference assessment protocols offer choices that are too simplistic to adequately address a number of medical issues and can result in choices that are unrealistic and unfamiliar to the patient. Continuous risk utility assessment (CRUA) offers an alternative methodology by which more realistic assessment scenarios can be used. However, continuous risk assessment questions can be complex, and issues involving the suitability of CRUA to medical treatment decisions in a clinical setting need to be addressed. This paper describes the use of CRUA in the treatment decision facing a patient with advanced osteoarthritis of the hip. A microcomputer-based implementation of the CRUA protocol is presented, and the results of an evaluation of this protocol arc reported. The study results indicate that CRUA is feasible in a clinical selling and might serve a useful and valuable purpose in the clinical decision-making process.     

商业银行供应链金融业务风险评估

将群决策理论与三角模糊数应用到商业银行供应链金融业务风险评价问题中,从分析风险评价指标体系着手,提出基于三角模糊数和群决策方法的商业银行度量供应链金融业务风险的模糊群决策评价模型,并举例验证模型的适用性。     

On a computer-aided systems approach to personnel administration

A systematic evaluation methodology has been developed which integrates some major concepts from value, utility, decision, subjective probability theories and the Delphi method for obtaining a consensus of opinions. These theories are applied to the process of evaluation of personnel for recruitment, promotions, merit raises, transfer, salary administration, training and development. The model requires and utilizes as inputs explicitly stated sets of long-range goals, short-range objectives, resource needs, evaluative criteria, weighting and utility functions, as well as the subjective judgments of appropriate evaluators. The processing of this information may be implemented by manual calculations, batch processing on an IBM 1620 computer, or by direct simulation on a large time-sharing computer system. By utilizing standard statistical procedures and the decision rule to maximize expected utility, the methodology produces the type of output information required for rational decision making.     

Why Do Strategic Alliances Persist? A Behavioral Decision Model

Strategic alliances are considered a flexible form of organizing, yet they are often long‐lived. Even when systematic benefit–cost analysis suggests that their organizational form should be changed or terminated, some alliances still persist. Drawing on behavioral decision theory, we propose a theoretical model that explains this phenomenon. Decision makers are subject to a variety of biases that can lead to the overvaluation of the net benefits of an alliance and, hence, inhibit the change or discontinuation of underperforming alliances. Our model illustrates how decision‐making biases at the individual, interpersonal, organizational, and interorganizational levels are moderated by the design of an alliance and the tools employed in the decision‐making process. This behavioral decision perspective advances our theoretical understanding of the longevity of strategic alliances and their embeddedness in complex decision‐making contexts. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

证券投资的风险偏好与期望效用决策模型

本文把期望效用理论用于投资决策分析，按实际风险偏好的系统分类构造模型，据此证明决策人效用函数必为线性函数和指数函数；前者对应风险中立，后者对应风险厌恶和风险追求；函数参数的不同取值，唯一确定了各类风险偏好的性质和程度。由此产生的分析方法和模型，可同时适用于正态或非正态收益分布的证券组合，为投资价值的评估提供有效而实用的程序。     

Illiquidity,transaction cost,and optimal holding period for real estate: Theory and application

Choosing the optimal holding period is an important part of real estate investment decisions, because “when to sell” affects “whether to buy”. This paper presents a theoretical model for such decision making. Our model indicates that the optimal holding period is affected by both systematic and non-systematic factors—market conditions (illiquidity and transaction cost) and property performance (return and return volatility). Other things being equal, higher illiquidity and transaction costs lead to longer holding periods, while higher return volatility implies shorter holding periods. Our empirical application suggests that the optimal holding period based on our model is quite consistent with previous empirical findings. In addition, we find that when illiquidity risk is incorporated the true real estate risk is significantly higher than the conventional risk estimate. Therefore, the current practice of real estate valuation, which is naively borrowed from finance theory, substantially underestimates real estate risk.     

Statistical Disclosure Risk: Separating Potential and Harm

Statistical agencies are keen to devise ways to provide research access to data while protecting confidentiality. Although methods of statistical disclosure risk assessment are now well established in the statistical science literature, the integration of these methods by agencies into a general scientific basis for their practice still proves difficult. This paper seeks to review and clarify the role of statistical science in the conceptual foundations of disclosure risk assessment in an agency’s decision making. Disclosure risk is broken down into disclosure potential, a measure of the ability to achieve true disclosure, and disclosure harm. It is argued that statistical science is most suited to assessing the former. A framework for this assessment is presented. The paper argues that the intruder’s decision making and behaviour may be separated from this framework, provided appropriate account is taken of the nature of potential intruder attacks in the definition of disclosure potential.     

Cognitive Biases and Strategic Decision Processes: An Integrative Perspective

Previous studies have not adequately addressed the role of cognitive biases in strategic decision processes. In this article we suggest that cognitive biases are systematically associated with strategic decision processes. Different decision processes tend to accentuate particular types of cognitive bias. We develop an integrative framework to explore the presence of four basic types of cognitive bias under five different modes of decision making. The cognitive biases include prior hypotheses and focusing on limited targets, exposure to limited alternatives, insensitivity to outcome probabilities and illusion of manageability. The five modes of strategic decision making are rational, avoidance, logical incrementalist, political and garbage can. We suggest a number of key propositions to facilitate empirical testing of the various contingent relationships implicit in the framework. Lastly, we discuss the implications of this framework for research and managerial practice.     

REFEREE BIAS

This paper surveys the empirical literature on the behavior of referees in professional football and other sports. Referees are typically appointed by a principal to be impartial, especially when unbiased referee judgment is vital for the accomplishment of the principal's objective. Answering whether referees make biased decisions and understanding the causes that lead referees to digress from their principal duty of impartiality is therefore fundamental from a theoretical point of view. At the same time, assessing the prevalence and origin of referee bias is germane to various domains of life. Referee bias is particularly relevant in sports, where partial decision‐making can determine competition outcomes, which can have strong repercussions on athletes' careers and supporters' well‐being.     

基于模糊综合评判的国际工程项目投资风险研究

本文将模糊综合评判法应用于国际工程项目投资风险管理,建立了国际工程项目投资风险综合评判模型。在综合采用系统分析、专家评判、量化评价等方法的基础上,给出了项目的风险评估结果,为管理者和投资者进行科学决策提供依据。     

Use of a Markov decision process model for treatment selection in an asymptomatic disease with consideration of risk sensitivity

Some potentially dangerous diseases are completely asymptomatic. Their diagnosis as incidental findings of ever-more-sensitive medical imaging can leave patients and physicians in something of a quandary. The patient feels well, and potential interventions to stave off long-term deterioration or death bring with them immediate risks. We discuss the use of a Markov Decision Process (MDP) model (rather than Monte Carlo simulation of a Markov Model) to create a tool for analyzing individual treatment decisions for asymptomatic chronic diseases where a patient’s condition cannot improve. We formulate a finite-horizon MDP model to determine optimal treatment plans and discuss three distinct optimality criteria: (a) maximizing expected quality-adjusted-life years with and without discounting, (b) maximizing the expected number of life years in good health, and (c) maximizing the expected utility for number of years in good health. In (c) we assume exponential utility and consider different risk aversion factors reported in the medical literature. We illustrate the model’s use by considering asymptomatic intracranial aneurysm. Our model builds on a simulation model [19] created to examine treatment recommendations based on cost-effectiveness. We demonstrate that incorporating risk aversion leads to “no treatment” recommendations for some types of aneurysm. Furthermore, the use of alternate patient-selected criteria leads to recommendations that vary from [19] in several scenarios. We also discuss the use of the software as a decision support tool to help make individualized treatment recommendations and demonstrate that the computational performance of the algorithm makes its use feasible during a short office visit.     

A preliminary exploration of the effects of rational factors and behavioral biases on the managerial choice to invest in corporate responsibility

We explore a possible decision‐making process in which mixes of rational and non‐rational factors affect the choice made by a firm's management to invest in corporate responsibility. We propose that the rational factors affecting the decision‐makers' investment choice are: (a) moral choice; (b) risk management; (c) consequential changes that would be required in corporate structure or production processes; and (d) long‐term versus short‐term considerations. The non‐rational behavioral biases that we suggest affecting the decision‐makers' investment choice are: (a) attitude to risk, (b) status quo bias, (c) subjective discounting, and (d) myopic loss‐aversion. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

软件工程监理量化评估的研究和设计

充分利用软件生命周期工程理论,结合软件工程生命周期在各阶段的作用,针对软件工程监理缺乏有效数字化评估手段这一缺陷,提出了基于软件生命周期的软件工程监理评估模型,形成了软件工程监理的量化评估方法。