启动我国农村消费市场的思路

拉动我国农村消费是解决外部需求减少、刺激经济发展的重要途径。在当前国际经济危机的背景下,推动农村消费意义重大。本文通过对农村消费结构的实证分析,发现收入水平低、保障体系不健全、基础设施落后、农村金融供给不足,造成农村居民的生活保障类消费对生活辅助类消费的挤出。因此政策选择上应从结构调整入手,以增加农民收入为着力点,加快农业产业结构调整、加大财政支农力度、完善农村商品流通市场、加快农村金融服务体系建设。     

调整农业结构的对策与建议

进行农业结构调整,是适应农业增效、农民增收的必然选择,也是进一步解放和发展农村生产力,加快发展农业产业化经营的必然趋势.支持农业结构调整,既是农村金融部门的职责,也是农村金融部门发展壮大、实现自身效益的现实选择.因此,必须进一步采取措施解决农业结构调整当中出现的困难和问题,推动农业产业结构调整和农业向产业化发展.     

我国农村金融体系发展的深层次思考

当前,我国农村金融服务体系薄弱和供给不足,严重影响了农村经济结构调整和制约农民增收。为此,要从农村实际和农民需要出发,按照有利于增加农户和企业贷款,有利于改善农村金融服务的要求,加快改革和创新农村金融体制,从而更好地支持农村经济结构调整,促进城乡经济协调发展。     

关于新形势下的农村消费信贷工作

中央经济工作会议指出,在2010年经济工作中,要高度重视经济结构调整和经济发展方式转变,要以扩大内需特别是增加居民消费需求为重点,转变经济发展方式,调整经济结构,提高经济社会发展的协调性。我国农村市场在消费需求方面潜力巨大,扩大农村消费需求,是扩大内需的重要组成部分。农村金融机构应加快推进金融产品创新,强化金融服务,积极开展符合农村实际和消费特点的农村消费信贷业务,启动农村消费市场,为扩内需、调结构、促和谐、惠民生作出贡献。     

农村金融产品和服务方式创新调查——基于欠发达地区需求视角

农村金融产品和服务方式的创新,是完善和解决现阶段农村金融服务供需矛盾,全面改进和提升农村金融服务、加强信贷结构调整的重要手段,也是加快"社会主义新农村"建设的必然需求,是新形势下缓解农村和农民贷款难、促进城乡公共金融服务均等化和支持社会主义新农村建设的有效手段.而当前欠发达地区农村金融产品供需矛盾依然突出,服务方式依旧滞后,成为农村经济发展的障碍.     

中国农村金融发展与农民消费结构研究

本文以中国农村金融发展和农民消费结构的事实为基础,分析了改革开放以来二者的动态关系。实证结果显示:农村金融发展对农民基本生活类支出产生负效应,且前者不是后者的格兰杰原因;而农村金融发展对农民发展类支出存在正效应,但影响不大,农村金融发展结构是农民发展类支出的格兰杰原因。整体上农村金融对提升农民的消费需求和消费结构并未起到太大的作用。基于此,需要完善农村金融制度,提高农村金融服务功能,优化农村金融结构,促进农民消费需求提高。     

西山区农村金融产品和服务方式创新要适应新形势

<正>农村金融服务是我国党和政府联系"三农"的重要纽带,更是金融部门加快推进农村金融产品和服务方式创新,全面改进和提升农村金融服务、加强信贷结构调整的重要抓手,也是新形势下缓解农村和农民贷款难、促进城乡公共金融服务均等化和支持社会主义新     

西山区农村金融产品和服务方式创新要适应新形势

<正>农村金融服务是我国党和政府联系"三农"的重要纽带,更是金融部门加快推进农村金融产品和服务方式创新,全面改进和提升农村金融服务、加强信贷结构调整的重要抓手,也是新形势下缓解农村和农民贷款难、促进城乡公共金融服务均等化和支持社会主义新     

黑龙江省农村金融服务的现状、问题及对策——以巴彦县为例

<正>大力发展农村金融服务,满足农村的多样化金融需求,是增强农村基础设施建设、加快现代化大农业发展的重要措施;是增加农民收入、推动农村经济社会发展的有力手段。当前,黑龙江省农村金融服务有了长足发展,但同现代化大农业与农村经济结构调整对金融服务的新要求相比,仍存在许多不足,亟待进一步改进完善。巴彦县是典型的农业大县,现有耕     

扩大农村需求的金融策略

扩大农村的内需,刺激农民的消费和投资是当前我国宏观经济政策的主要战略,为此必须充分发挥金融支持对农村内需的拉动作用。可把加快农村金融服务和金融设施建设、开发农村消费信贷市场、加快农村小额信贷市场等金融策略作为扩大农村内需的主要途径。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.