The Trans‐Pacific Partnership: Suddenly a ‘Game Changer’

This article argues that the entry of Canada, Mexico and most importantly Japan has dramatically shifted the prospects and potential impact of the TPP. More specifically, the article offers four reasons why the entry of Canada, Mexico and Japan has transformed the TPP from a potentially failed agreement of limited economic significance and great geopolitical risk to a ‘game changer’ for the region and beyond. The article also recognizes that while the entry of Canada, Mexico and Japan has transformed the TPP negotiations, their entry comes with some potentially serious risks. The article discusses three specific risks the new entrants bring to the negotiations.     

Capital Controls Re‐examined: The Case for ‘Smart’ Controls

The global financial crisis which began in east Asia in 1997 is not over, neither is the inquest into its implications for adjustment policy. In the wake of this crisis, we focus here on the role of capital controls, which formed a much publicised part of the crisis‐coping strategy in one country (Malaysia) and, less openly, were also deployed by other crisis‐afflicted countries. Evaluation so far has examined different target variables with different estimation methods, generally concentrating on efficiency and stability indicators and ignoring equity measures; it has also typically treated ‘control’ as a one‐zero dummy variable, ignoring the ‘quality’ of intervention and in particular the extent to which efficiency gains are obtained in exchange for controls. Partly because of these limitations, the literature has reached no consensus on the impact of controls; however, it is moving over towards acknowledging that the quality and type of controls is important, as well as their intensity. We propose an approach in which the government plays off short‐term political security against long‐term economic gain; the more insecure its political footing, the greater the weight it gives to political survival, which is likely to increase the probability of controls being imposed. The modelling of this approach generates a governmental ‘policy reaction function’ and an impact function for controls, which are estimated by simultaneous panel‐data methods across a sample of thirty developing and transitional countries between 1980–2003, using, for the period since 1996, the ‘new’ IMF dataset which differentiates between controls by type. We find that controls appear to cause increases in income equality, and are significantly associated with political insecurity and relatively low levels of openness to trade. They do not, in our analysis, materially influence the level of whole‐economy productivity or GDP across the sample of countries examined, although they do influence productivity in particular sectors. But the dispersion around this central finding is wide: the tendency for controls to depress productivity by encouraging rent‐seeking sometimes is, and sometimes is not, counteracted by purposive government policy actions to maintain competitiveness. Whether or not this happens is vital, on both efficiency and equity grounds. We make the case for ‘smart’ capital controls – controls which are time‐limited and contain an inbuilt incentive to increased productivity.     

Customer loyalty to food retailers in Northern Ireland: ‘devoted loyals’ or ‘promiscuous switchers’?

Store loyalty is a major challenge for food retailers, and the food retail market in Northern Ireland has been subject to considerable change in the past decade. Although shoppers will often patronize many stores, they typically have a primary affiliation to a ‘main’ food store that captures the majority of their food purchases. This study uses a unique approach to segmenting customers into groups based on loyalty in terms of both the type of data used to generate a loyalty score and the data collection techniques used. Innovative projective techniques have been used alongside traditional questioning techniques to reveal ‘behavioural’ and ‘emotional’ loyalty indicators, and in doing so create a holistic measure of customer loyalty to a main food store, allowing customers to be segmented into groups based on loyalty. A paper‐based questionnaire was administered to 152 food shoppers from throughout Northern Ireland. Responses to traditional questioning formats and projective techniques (cartoon friends and mini case studies) were analysed and used to generate a loyalty score for each respondent. The first group of customers nearly always visit the same store, are willing to recommend the store to others and are less likely to switch to a competitor, even when offered an incentive to do so. They also rate the ‘hard’ attributes of this store highly. As a result of these characteristics, customers in this segment were termed ‘devoted loyals’. The second group of customers may occasionally use a different supermarket for food shopping, some would consider switching to a competitor if offered an incentive, and they rate ‘hard’ store attributes at a slightly lower level than the ‘devoted loyals’. Based on their group profile, these customers were assigned the title of ‘susceptibles’. The third group of customers are less willing to actively encourage friends and family to shop at a specific store. Many in this group did not consider their current store as their number one choice in the next few years. An incentive to switch to a competitor store is more likely to trigger a transfer of loyalty by this group. These customers were termed ‘promiscuous switchers’.     

The influence of ‘low-balling’ on buyers' compliance: Revisited

Central to the low-ball strategy is the revocation and subsequent alteration of an integral part of an offer after a target subject accepts. Allegedly used to some extent in the automobile industry, it has drawn criticism as an unethical and characteristically deceptive practice. Yet, is such a strategy really effective in increasing customer compliance in real commercial settings? Using a sample of 160 subjects, the low-ball procedure was again tested. Although effective, its predicted superiority over several competing strategies was unconfirmed.     

An ‘upside‐down’ view of rural health care

Access to high quality health care services plays an important part in the health of rural communities and individuals. This fact is reflected in efforts by governments to improve the quality of such services through better targeting of funds and more efficient management of services. In Australia, the difficulties experienced by rural communities in attracting and retaining doctors has long been recognized as a contributing factor to the relatively higher levels of morbidity and mortality in rural areas. However, this paper, based on a study of two small rural communities in Australia, suggests that resolving the health problems of rural communities will require more than simply increasing the quality and accessibility of health services. Health and well‐being in such communities relates as much to the sense of community cohesion as it does to the direct provision of medical services. Over recent years, that cohesion has diminished, undermined in part by government policies that have fuelled an exodus from small rural communities to urban areas. Until governments begin to take an ‘upside‐down’ perspective, focusing on building healthy communities rather than simply on building hospitals to make communities healthy, the disadvantages faced by rural people will continue to be exacerbated.     

The ‘New’ Theory of Optimum Currency Areas

Highbrow opinion is like a hunted hare; if you stand long enough it will come back to the place it started from. Dennis Robertson     

HRD in the People's Republic: The MBA ‘with Chinese characteristics’?

In this article, we consider Human Resource Development (HRD) in the People's Republic and analyze the value of an MBA in a transitional economy. MBA education is growing rapidly in China, while at the same time business schools in America are facing declining applications and mounting criticisms of the product. Should then the Master of Business Administration (MBA) be valued differently in a developing economy, or is it open to the same criticisms leveled at it in the west? We use the ‘resource-based’ theory of the firm to attempt to answer this question. We trace the development of MBA education in China between 1984 and the present, placing this process in the context of the country's radical educational, economic and political changes. We ask if the Chinese government has adopted the same approach to fostering MBA provision as it has to nurturing business growth. If so, what might we learn about possible future trends in tertiary business education? In order to look more closely at the practicalities of the Chinese MBA, we briefly consider the development of one of the earliest programs in China—the European Union-funded China Europe International Business School (CEIBS).     

International Co‐movements of Business Cycles in a ‘Phase‐locking’ Model

The possibility of co‐movements in the cyclical variations of aggregate output in different countries has received increasing attention in recent years. The present paper derives sufficient conditions for the occurrence of persistent co‐movements in the mean processes of aggregate economic variables of different countries, an effect called ‘phase‐locking’. The fact that the ‘phase‐locking’ effect results under fairly elementary assumptions may be taken to challenge the sophisticated theoretical speculations about the international transmission of business cycles. International co‐movements may simply be due to a ‘technical’ effect which is generic to interrelated cycling dynamic systems.     

The IMF After the Asian Crisis: Merits and Limitations of the ‘Long‐term Development Partner’ Role

We examine the view, espoused by a number of commentators in recent months, that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) should seek to withdraw from its long‐term lending operations, in the wake of the recent financial crisis in Asia and elsewhere, and restrict itself to its ‘core competency’ of preventing and where necessary lending into financial crisis. This view is based on a belief that such long‐term lending crowds out both private sector operations and short‐term IMF lending; and that it is ineffective, because of weaknesses in the IMF’s conditionality. Both of these propositions, we argue, can be challenged. In the poorer developing countries there is virtually no private sector to crowd out, and Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility (ESAF) operations have been conspicuously successful, not only at promoting growth, but also at achieving structural changes not at all achieved by aid donors such as strengthening the tax base. Such changes inevitably require a longer time‐period than the standard three years of an IMF standby, not only in order to induce a production response but also in order to achieve the necessary measure of stabilisation and economic reform without imposing social pressures which wreck the production response. The latter argument is particularly powerful in middle income countries, and provides an argument for IMF support to these countries also whilst they are temporarily excluded from international capital markets. Often also a long‐term presence is needed to achieve effective leverage in short‐term operations. In such cases the IMF’s long‐term lending should be seen as preconditional to the success of, and not as an alternative to, its short‐term operations. We therefore argue for the retention of the Fund’s long‐term lending function; and for this function not to be transferred to the World Bank, which has less credibility in global financial markets and less comparative advantage in macro‐economic management. Measures are indeed needed to reduce the level of the IMF’s exposure to risk in poorer developing countries, but those, we believe, should consist of the preventive measures currently going on, and measures to increase the ratio of equity to debt, rather than measures which would jeopardise the progress in long‐term poverty alleviation capacity achieved by the Fund over recent years     

RTAs' Proliferation and Trade‐diversion Effects: Evidence of the ‘Spaghetti Bowl’ Phenomenon

This paper investigates the trade‐diversion effects of regional trade agreements (RTAs), so‐called spaghetti bowl phenomenon (SBP), in multilateral trade. The SBP is due to the proliferation of RTAs. Thus, I investigate the relationship between the number of RTAs concluded by a country and the additional trade value attributed to a RTA. Using bilateral trade data in a sample of 119 countries, from 1995 to 2012, my main finding reveals a negative trade effect between them, confirming the existence of SBP in multilateral trade. However, results could not conclude the evidence of a negative effect of overlapping RTAs, involving the existence of SBP, within North–North, North–South or South–South trade. But, the additional trade value attributed to a RTA concluded with EU countries or US seems to confirm significantly a trade‐diversion effect because of the number of RTAs signed by these countries.     

Bilateral ‘WTO‐Plus’ Free Trade Agreements: The WTO Trade Policy Review of Singapore 2004

The World Trade Organisation's 2004 Trade Policy Review of Singapore (WTO‐TPR Singapore 2004) depicts the small and outward‐oriented economy as one of the most open countries to international trade and investment. The review highlights the benefits of the outward‐oriented strategy that has enabled the Singapore economy to weather recent external shocks such as the Asian financial crisis to the SARS and to the recent unfavourable conditions in the Middle East. In particular, the report commended Singapore's efforts on its liberalisation of the services sector and its economic benefits to consumers and global trade. However, the WTO‐TPR Singapore 2004 highlights several key areas of concerns: (a) the commitment to multilateral agreements with the rising number of bilateral free trade agreements signed by Singapore and (b) the lack of growth of total factor productivity, a key indicator for long‐run efficiency of the economy. The paper addresses the above key concerns raised in the WTO's TPR of Singapore in terms of its commitment to global trade in terms of WTO‐plus bilateral FTAs, which intends to support a multilateral trading system, and its overall industrial strategies to raise its competitiveness.     

Horizontal and Vertical Intra‐industry Trade: An Empirical Test of the ‘Homogeneity Hypothesis’

In this paper, we study if and how country‐specific factors affect intra‐industry trade (IIT) when heterogeneity among sectors is allowed for. The paper is novel in that it is the first that addresses an issue raised by Greenaway et al. (Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1999, 61, 365). Specifically, employing data on a sample of OECD countries over a 10‐year period (1997–1998), we build on and take forward a methodology pioneered by Balassa and Bauwens (Economic Journal, 1987, 97, 923) to study the determinants of horizontal and vertical IIT using a multi‐industry approach. In doing this, we seek to avoid the more extreme measurement problems by allowing for heterogeneity among sectors when country‐specific factors are analysed and among countries when industry‐specific factors are considered. The results are compared to those obtained using the traditional method that does not consider intersectoral heterogeneity. We find that the two models yield statistically different results. Moreover, the tests regarding the choice of model – that is, econometric tests designed to compare one model with another when different sets of explanatory variables are used – confirm the relevance of intersectoral heterogeneity in affecting IIT. To the best of our knowledge, a similar analysis has not yet appeared in the empirical literature on IIT.     

The Latest Enlargement of the EU and ‘Buy National’ Rules

This paper presents a variety of indicators which reflect the extent of protection of individual manufacturing industries in ten countries of Central and Eastern Europe by the ‘Buy National’ rules in public procurement. Eight countries joined the EU in 2004 and the two remaining countries will become full members in 2007. Combining these data with information on the current international competitiveness of each individual industry, the paper identifies those industries that are likely to be particularly sensitive to the abolition of ‘Buy National’ rules due to their recent accession to the European Union. Two series of indicators are proposed to measure the impact of ‘Buy National’ policies. The first series outlines the behaviour of the public sector vis‐à‐vis domestic production and imports. The second series of indicators sketches the industrial structure of the sectors which, following the above analysis, seem to be protected by preferential public procurement. The interaction of both series of indicators can provide information about the extent of protection in terms of public procurement on a sectoral level and about its impact on domestic production.