The Impact of Sector-Specific and Economy-Wide Policy Reforms on the Agricultural Sector in Brazil: 1980–98

This article analyzes the impact of policy reforms and changing macroeconomic conditions on the Brazilian agricultural sector. It stresses four issues: events outside of agriculture were central to the performance of the sector and to the timing and sequence of policy reform; reform involved far more than trade liberalization; the impact of reform on input markets and productivity was key for understanding the period; and policy reform had a highly differentiated impact on the sector. As a result of the reforms, agriculture became the most dynamic sector of the Brazilian economy in the 1990s. Policies still in need of reform are identified. (JEL O13 , Q18 )     

OPENNESS AND STRUCTURAL LABOR MARKET REFORMS: EX ANTE COUNTERFACTUALS

In this paper we examine plausible macroeconomic responses to the ex ante (planned but not implemented yet) reforms in the labor market, taking a currently proposed Social Model in Lithuania as an example. We contribute not only to the current debate on the efficacy of announced structural reforms, but also to the literature on policy evaluation, by assessing reforms from a global perspective. Taking trade linkages and openness into account, we demonstrate macroeconomic reactions to shocks in unemployment benefits, active labor market policies, and tax wedge on the reforming economy. In particular, we show that the omission of an international dimension could lead to seriously biased results on policy effects for any open and small economy. Using a satellite model for the intermediate trade, we link the global framework with the sectoral extensive margin, which changes some of the results derived from the aggregate data. (JEL C33, C54, E62, J38)     

Enterprise Productivity and Efficiency: When Is Up Really Down?

A substantial body of literature has documented impressive total factor productivity (TFP) growth in China's state-owned enterprises (SOEs) during the period of China's enterprise reform. Such growth rates have been used to support the view that China's reforms of SOEs have been highly successful. In this paper, we question the validity of using TFP growth rates as a “bottom line” measure of performance. In the spirit of a counterexample, we use a simple model to show that when firms are not profit maximizers for whatever reason, higher productivity may actually lead to greater allocative distortion, lower profits, and lower economic efficiency. On the basis of existing evidence, we argue that these conditions held for many Chinese state enterprises during the reform.J. Comp. Econom.,June 1997,24(3), pp. 265–280. Boston College, Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts 02167; University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109-1220; and Industrial Relations Center, Carlson School of Management, University of Minnesota, 271 19th Ave. S., Minneapolis, Minnesota 55455.     

The Economic Agenda: a View from Europe

Over the course of the 1990s, the US outperformed Europe not only in output growth, but also in productivity and employment generation, thereby stopping Europe's decade‐long period of catching up. The author shows that the growth difference originates at least partly from insufficient investment by Europe into the determinants of long‐run growth (research, education, and the diffusion of new technologies). Northern European countries with comprehensive welfare systems performed better than the big economies in continental Europe, owing to their timely realization that these costly systems require the highest possible levels of productivity and fast growth. The European agenda for the next decade is based on this analysis. It stresses the importance of accelerating economic growth, primarily through investment into growth drivers. Labor market reforms are necessary, as is the redefinition of macroeconomic policy, a regional policy adequate for European enlargement, and reforms in the public sector. Distributional and ecological issues are also on the agenda, even though Europe outperforms the US in these fields, as is reflective of European preferences.     

A measure of total factor productivity with biased technological change

The paper presents a new measure of total factor productivity (TFP) that also takes into account the effect of biased technological change. With this methodology, we can distinguish the effects resulting from the introduction of neutral or biased technological change on TFP, called neutral factor productivity and biased factor productivity (BFP), respectively. The new measure of TFP also holds in extreme cases where only the effect of neutral/biased technological change is presented. In particular, the BFP component increases (decreases) when the productivity of the cheaper (more expensive) factor increases. Moreover, the TFP holds up to the modification of both units of measure and to the costs of factors. Finally, the intensity of the BFP is independent of the direction of the technological change.     

Growth effects of structural reforms in Southern Europe: the case of Greece,Italy, Spain and Portugal

This paper develops a semi-endogenous growth model for analysing the intertemporal effects of structural reforms in Southern European countries (Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece). The model follows the product-variety paradigm in a semi-endogenous setting, and includes a disaggregation of labour into different skill groups. We use a comprehensive set of structural indicators in order to calibrate the model to important macroeconomic ratios and levels of productivity and employment. Our results show that structural reforms yield significant economic gains in the medium and long run. The results point to the importance of product market reforms and labour market related education and tax reforms as the most promising areas of structural policy interventions. This paper also argues for placing more emphasis on education policy which is key in upgrading the labour force, especially in these countries where the share of low skilled labour is among the highest in the euro area.     

Policy reform and productivity change in Chinese agriculture: A distance function approach

Agricultural policy reform has been an important source of change in the Chinese agricultural sector. The reforms led to productivity growth and helped China to pursue its self-sufficiency goal especially in the grain sector. In order to analyze whether observable productivity growth stems from technologically induced components or from the market induced parts, a multi-input–multi-output model is derived by using an econometric distance function framework. A decomposition allows to distinguish allocative effects, scale effects, technological change, and technical efficiency change. Data on farms in Zhejiang from 1986 to 2000 are used to analyze the impact of policy reform.     

Economic liberalization and sources of productivity growth in Indonesian Banks: is it efficiency improvement or technological progress?

This article investigates the sources of productivity growth in the Indonesian banking sector during 23 years period from 1993 to 2015. The industry has gone through several episodes of policy reforms, starting from the radical deregulation in the late 1980s, the restructuring period following the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the consolidation period in the mid-2000s to the economic expansion in the 2010s. Using panel data of 98 commercial banks, we explore productivity growth using Malmquist indices complemented with bootstrapping technique to provide measures of the statistical precision of the results. The Malmquist index measures total factor productivity, efficiency change and technological change. Results show that productivity improves moderately and appears to be less volatile towards the end of the period. Furthermore, efficiency change tends to be the main source of productivity improvement rather than technological change.     

Turkey’s employment subsidy program under the great recession: a general equilibrium assessment

The objective of this paper is to provide an impact analysis of the macroeconomic consequences of the employment subsidization programs in Turkey implemented under the post-2008 crisis period. To this end, an applied general equilibrium model (of the computable general equilibrium – CGE variety) is utilized to investigate the production, incomes generation, and aggregate demand components of the domestic economy. The analysis highlights the rather limited returns to the subsidization package, and argues that much of this was due to the dis-equilibriating and fragile macroeconomic environment under the neoliberal policy framework. The massive drop of domestic savings; a severe mis-alignment in the real exchange rate causing significant appreciation of the domestic currency; rise of the external deficit and of foreign indebtedness along with a severe fall in the total productivity effort were different facets of this poor macroeconomic performance. Thus, an important message of the study is that, had the macroeconomic balances were maintained at their historical averages, and a more competitive exchange rate could have been pursued, as much as threefolds of a gain in aggregate employment could have been generated with the same intensity of the employment subsidization package, in comparison to the historically realized levels.     

Targeting Debt and Deficits in India: A Structural Macroeconometric Approach

This study attempts to construct a consistent macroeconomic framework for India to review the macro-fiscal linkages over the 14th Finance Commission period, 2015–2019. A macroeconomic policy simulation model comprising of real, external, monetary, fiscal and macroeconomic block is built for the purpose. The estimated model is used for policy simulations to address three scenarios: (a) shock due to 7th Pay Commission award, (b) targeting deficit and debt and (c) targeting higher growth. The results suggest that while Pay Commission award would result in slightly higher growth compared to the base case, this also results in higher inflation, fiscal-revenue deficits, current account deficit as well as higher government liability. Further simulation results suggest that expenditure switching policy, which is the core of expansionary fiscal consolidation mechanism, of increasing higher government capital expenditure and reducing the government transfers could result in higher growth with a manageable fiscal deficit of 5.3% that also brings down the government (centre plus states) liability to around 60% by 2019–2020.

     

Indiaʼs mysterious manufacturing miracle

Using data on formal manufacturing plants in India, we report a large but imprecise speedup in productivity growth starting in the early 1990s (e.g., 1993–2007 compared to 1980–1992). We trace it to productivity growth within large plants (200 workers or more), as opposed to reallocation across such plants. As many economists believe Indian reforms during this era improved resource allocation, the absence of a growth pickup from reallocation is surprising. Moreover, when we look across industries we fail to robustly relate productivity growth to prominent reforms such as industrial de-licensing, tariff reductions, FDI liberalization, or lifting of small-scale industry reservations. Even under a generous reading of their effects, these reforms (at least as we measure them) account for less than one-third of the rapid productivity growth in Indian manufacturing from 1980–2007.     

Mortgage Credit: Denmark’s Financial Capacity Building Regime

ABSTRACT

The integration of small states into the international financial system has constrained their ability to enact the traditional macroeconomic tools of fiscal and monetary policy. As systems of mortgage credit are tightly integrated into global capital markets and influence flows of capital between states, this paper uses Denmark as a case study to explore whether domestic mortgage sector reforms have been used to build financial capacity to compensate for the loss of economic policy autonomy. The results of this analysis suggest that the Danish government has actively used mortgage credit to meet three specific macroeconomic objectives since the 1980s: (1) mortgage credit was restricted in the 1980s to resolve Denmark's persistent balance of payments problem; (2) liberalisations of mortgage credit in the 1990s and 2000s allowed the Danish government to stimulate the economy via privatised/house-price Keynesianism and reduce their sovereign debt burden; and (3) mortgage credit has been used as a form of privatised monetary policy, allowing Denmark to break-free from the ‘iron-cage’ of the Mundell-Fleming trilemma. It is in these specific ways that the Danish government has used mortgage reforms to achieve macroeconomic policy autonomy and navigate economic challenges whilst adhering to the constraints of the international financial system.     

CHINA'S ECONOMIC REFORM: THE NEXT STEP

China's economic reforms succeeded in decentralizing decision making power down to the local and enterprise level. This decentralization has permitted a vibrant non-state sector to emerge alongside the state sector. Growing out of the state plan accounts for much of China's spectacular economic growth. However, productivity in the state sector has experienced little improvement. One can trace recurrent macroeconomic imbalances and inflation to the state policy to provide cheap credit to cover the huge losses sustained by state-owned enterprises. Attempts to reimpose controls to cool down an overheated economy repeatedly have halted the momentum for economic reform. Failure to introduce banking and financial reforms threatens future growth of the non-state sector. The success of such reforms depends critically on efforts to restructure and privatize state-owned enterprises. Growing out of the state plan requires officials to adopt an explicit policy to stop supporting the losses in the state owned enterprises.     

Demand shocks and productivity growth

This paper presents evidence on the relationship between cyclical shocks and productivity growth, for 20 2-digit SIC US manufacturing industries and a set of monetary policy, fiscal policy, and oil price shocks. The paper uses as a measure of productivity change a Solow residual corrected for a wide range of non-technological effects due to imperfect-competition, non-constant returns to scale, and cyclical utilization rates of capital and labor services. The empirical framework identifies policy shocks independently of productivity measurement issues via a two-step procedure. While the typical industry shows weak responses of productivity to the shocks considered, in some industries temporary contractionary policy shocks lead to increases in productivity. In addition, the results reveal that there are localized asymmetries, with contractionary policy shocks having larger productivity effects than their expansionary counterparts. The results support the thesis that job reallocation is an important channel linking contractionary policy shocks and productivity growth. These results support the pit-stop view of downturns.Received: April 200, Accepted: March 2005, António Gomes de Menezes: I thank participants at seminars at Boston College, University of Alberta and Simon Fraser University and two anonymous referees for helpful comments.     

Quality-oriented growth: a new trend for Chinese firms

ABSTRACT

Based on data from the China Employer-Employee Survey (CEES), this study analyses the actual effect of quality-driven growth on firms’ performances in the economic transition of recent years. The results show positive and significant effects between the firms’ performance and quality-oriented growth, which is defined as a strategy that supports the spirit of greater entrepreneurial innovation, the advancement of input quality, and corporate governance improvement. Using a quality-driven growth mode, firms can effectively relieve the adverse effect of downward macroeconomic growth pressure on performance. This study proposes that China’s macroeconomic policy should shift from demand-oriented management to supply-oriented management, with a particular focus on quality development strategy. Moreover, firms should establish a quality-driven development strategy, facilitating a spirit of entrepreneurial innovation, advancing input quality, and improving corporate governance. This strategy will increase the firm’s performance, and effectively relieve the macroeconomic downward pressure.

Abbreviations: CEES: China Employer-Employee Survey, TFP: Total factor productivity     

Open Macroeconomics in an Open EconomyScottish Economic Society/Royal Bank of Scotland Annual Lecture, 1997

There are three pillars to the new Labour Government's approach to economic policy; delivering macroeconomic stability, tackling supply-side barriers to growth and delivering employment and economic opportunities to all. This lecture focuses on the new Government's reforms to deliver macroeconomic stability and the importance of open and transparent institutions and procedures. The lecture outlines four principles for macroeconomic policymaking which flow from changes in the world economy and the world of economic ideas over recent decades. It explains each principle and shows how they are being translated into practice in the macroeconomic policy reforms that the new Government has introduced at the Treasury and the Bank of England.     

Vietnamese Economy at the Crossroads: New Doi Moi for Sustained Growth

Thanks to doi moi, Vietnam was successful in escaping the poverty trap and emerged as a lower middle‐income country in the late 2000s. From that time, however, the Vietnamese economy entered a new phase, which has been characterized by slow growth, weak international competitiveness, and macroeconomic instability. Apart from short‐term problems associated with the management of increasing foreign capital, the major factors accounting for the difficulties of Vietnam's current economic phase can be attributed to the Vietnamese style of the gradualist strategy of transition from a planned to a market economy, which protects state‐owned enterprises, and consequently to the failure to respond to the rapid rise of China. For further industrialization and sustained growth, Vietnam should embrace a new doi moi that follows the efficient type of gradualist strategy, with a special focus on new reforms of state‐owned enterprises and a policy that promotes the country' s dynamic comparative advantage.     

Accounting for Growth and Output Gaps: Evidence from New Zealand

We evaluate New Zealand's macroeconomic performance over the 1967–1996 period, which witnessed numerous economic reforms. Using both index–number and econometric techniques, we decompose nominal GDP growth and the output gap into contributions from price level changes, productivity growth and changes in factor utilisation. Changes in domestic prices accounted for four–fifths of the growth in nominal GDP, while capital accumulation and employment growth were the most important factors determining real–output growth. Deviations in the domestic price level around its long–run trend contributed most heavily to changes in the nominal output gap. The real gap was influenced in any year variously by deviations of the terms of trade and labour input from their long–run trends, as well as by productivity shocks.     

中国地区工业生产绩效:结构差异、制度冲击及动态表现

This paper is dedicated to probing into the dynamic performances of industrial productivity across regions of transitional China, using the panel data of provincial level. Based on the approach by Kumbhakar (2000), TFP (total factor productivity) growth is decomposed into four components. The main results are as follows. First, since 1988, the industrial TFP growth has been commonly accelerated across regions, with a rising technical change rate as the principal impetus. Second, meanwhile, technical efficiency and factors’ allocative efficiency are deteriorated with scale efficiency switching from being retrogressive to being progressive. Third, although the SOE (state-owned enterprise) reform in the late 1990s has constituted a common shock to the industrial productivity, the eastern area with relatively few SOEs suffers the least from this policy enforcement. Fourth, by exploring the sources of productivity differences, we further confirm that the institutional shock launched by SOE reform in the late 1990s is crucial for the enhancement of scale effects as well as the temporarily rapid decline of factors’ allocative efficiency; in addition, the educational level of the labor-force and the share of non-SOEs in the industrial output contribute positively to the acceleration of technical change and the improvement of allocative efficiency. The economic transition, accompanied by gradual institutional reforms, is reshaping the map of regional industrialization through various channels. Translated from Jingji Yanjiu 经济研究 (Economic Research Journal), 2006, (11): 48–59     

Growth,reform indicators and policy complementarities1

In order to assess the growth implications of policy complementarities, this paper applies second‐best results to reform indicators. During the transition from central planning to EU integration, which corresponds to a policy cycle, a complementarity index based on structural indicators compiled by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) decreases and then increases while the level of reforms tends to rise throughout. Corrected for initial conditions, the extent of macroeconomic stabilization and endogeneity, the level of reforms and changes in their complementarity are found to be positively related to output growth. The study uses panel data for 27 countries between 1989 and 2004.