Mining booms and the exchange rate

The balance of payments identity linking the current account to net domestic investment and foreign capital inflows is used as a framework to assess the effects of a mining boom on the exchange rate. The exchange rate response is found to vary with whether the boom is generated by an increase in global demand or an increase in domestic supply, and the response varies over time as the boom moves through investment and production stages. Also, the exchange rate response depends on the mix of resident and nonresident investment funds, the share of the investment domestically sourced and the distribution of windfall income and its expenditure. A key result is the absence of a simple relationship between the terms of trade and the exchange rate.     

矿产资源、资产与资本三位一体化研究

矿产资源资本资产三位一体的过程是将矿产资源禀赋有效转化为合理定价的资产,并进一步将资产投入到社会再生产过程中实现资本的自我增殖的过程,其本质是矿业市场和矿业经济的宏观管理。目前,我国整个矿业经济存在三大问题:区域范围内遭遇"资源的诅咒"、全国范围内面临矿产资源保障能力不足、全球范围内矿业企业竞争力有待提高,其核心障碍在于矿业市场不完善、资本运营能力不足、矿业资本调控能力有待提高。因此,从"三位一体"的理论研究入手,以破解"三位一体"的实践难题为重点,明确"三位一体"的目标和原则,提出了一整套建立健全矿业资本市场、促进区域经济持续发展、提高全国资源保障能力、扩大国际矿业市场份额的方针政策和措施建议。     

Options for African agriculture in an era of high food and energy prices

In a world of high food and energy prices, Africa has an imperative to do a better job feeding itself and ensuring that its people are food secure. At the same time, there is a new business opportunity to work with the private sector in developing the continent's potential to produce significantly more food, raw materials, and biofuels for regional and world markets. A challenge for African policy makers is to find the right balance between a food security and a business agenda, and to ensure that the business agenda engages with large numbers of small farms. Agricultural development requires many things, but the fundamentals for Africa are developing markets, increasing agricultural productivity, and managing volatility. This cannot happen at sufficient scale and speed without strong public sector leadership, enabling policies and investments, and well‐focused implementation strategies.     

试论发展循环经济与贫富兼采

我国矿产资源的特点是贫矿多,富矿少;难选矿多,易选矿少;共生矿多,单一矿少。目前,我国矿产资源形势和矿业开发中存在的回采率低、综合利用程度不高和技术欠缺等等问题,从发展循环经济和矿业可持续发展的角度,我国的矿产资源应“贫富兼采”。要倡导节约资源理念,严格开采企业准入条件,完善综合利用指标体系,集约利用矿产资源,理顺矿业开发中的经济关系,优化政策环境,扶持综合利用率高的企业。     

El Niño southern oscillation and its effects on world vegetable oil prices: assessing asymmetries using smooth transition models

In this research, we examine the effects of El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) on market dynamics of major vegetable oil prices. We adopt a smooth transition vector error correction modelling framework to analyse the impacts of ENSO events on the vegetable oil prices and, more interestingly, to investigate the asymmetric nature of the ENSO dynamics and price responses to ENSO shocks. The results confirm self‐exciting type nonlinearities in the ENSO dynamics, and presence of the so‐called transactions cost band in the system of vegetable oil prices. These nonlinearities yield the history‐specific asymmetries in the vegetable oil price dynamics, wherein effects of ENSO shocks on the ENSO dynamics and the vegetable oil prices vary considerably between different ENSO regimes. In general, positive deviations, El Niño events, result in the vegetable oil price increase, while negative deviations, La Niña events, result in decrease in the prices. We illustrate these effects using generalised impulse‐response functions and the derived asymmetry measures.     

Adoption of climate‐smart practices and its impact on farm performance and risk exposure among smallholder farmers in Ghana

Increased climate variability during the last four decades has made the agricultural environment in many developing countries more uncertain, resulting in increasing exposure to risk when producing crops. In this study, we use recent farm‐level data from Ghana to examine the drivers of individual and joint adoption of crop choice and soil and water conservation practices, and how adoption of these practices impacts on farm performance (crop revenue) and exposure to risks (skewness of crop yield). We employ a multinomial endogenous switching regression model to account for selectivity bias due to both observable and unobservable factors. The empirical results reveal that farmers’ adoption of crop choice and soil and water conservation leads to higher crop revenues and reduced riskiness in crop production, with the largest impact on crop revenues coming from joint adoption. The findings also show that education of the household head, access to extension and weather information influence the likelihood of adopting these practices. Thus, enhancing extension services and access to climate information and irrigation can reduce gaps in adoption of soil and water conservation and crop choice, considered as climate‐smart practices that will eventually improve crop revenues and reduce farmers’ exposure to climate‐related production risks.     

水患对安徽省相对经济资源承载力的影响与可持续发展

水患给安徽经济，社会可持续发展带来很大负面影响；以20世纪90年代两次特大水灾为例。分析了水患对安徽相对经济资源承载力影响，并从人口，资源配置，产业结构，资金等方面提出了可持续发展策略。     

刍议中国土地制度的几个问题与改革走向

十七届三中全会通过的《中共中央关于推进农村改革发展若干重大问题的决定》开启了中国新一轮土地制度改革的帷幕。本文基于新制度经济学的视角,对中国土地制度中存在的问题、改革步骤与取向、具体工作中面临的问题进行探讨,指出：（1）新一轮土地制度改革的基础工作与主线是“确权赋能”,以奠定长期发展的产权基础;（2）近期在不改变现行征地制度框架的前提下,进一步推动区内和区间土地发展权转移的改革与实践;（3）远期以十七届三中全会《决定》和“十八大”报告的精神为指导,突破国家土地征用制度的框架,推动集体土地直接入市流转,实现国有土地与集体土地“同地、同权、同价”的改革发展目标;（4）土地制度改革是一项全局性和战略性的工作,提出了需要制定的财税和户籍等配套政策。     

湖州市外资引入方面的落后性及对策研究

同苏锡常地区相比,湖州市吸引外资方面落后,制约湖州市外资发展的主要因素包括欠佳的地理区位、较低的经济发展水平、人才的匮乏、思想观念的保守及投资环境的不完善;未来湖州市要积极深化管理体制的改革,做好太湖文章,优化投资环境,充分利用优势资源,建设特色工业园区,继续推动纺织、丝绸服装及建材等传统产业的发展,建立国家级生态保护区,积极发展旅游业;在抓住亚洲地区的投资额的同时,积极扩大对欧美地区的招商力度。     

Public policy change and its impact on urban expansion: An evaluation of 265 cities in China

Public policies play a vital role in shaping our cities. However, the impact of public policies on the spatial expansion of urban areas needs to be better understood in order to achieve better policy outcomes. During the period of China’s economic reform, the central government of China has made many changes in three sets of public policies—regional development policies, the household registration (hukou) system, and urban land and housing market policies—to promote coordinated development of small, medium and large cities. This study aims to examine the effects of these public policy changes on urban expansion across 265 Chinese cities at or above prefecture level. We first quantify the spatial patterns of urban areas and evaluate the extent of urban sprawl of the 265 cities from 1995 to 2015 using multi-temporal land cover data. These cities are classified into six categories according to a city tier system used in China. Through a set of individual fixed-effects models, we then explore how changes in the three sets of policies have influenced urban expansion differently across different-tier cities. Results show that sprawling patterns of urban expansion, which have been more prominent in small and medium sized cities since 2000, are associated with shifts in policies to support stronger economic and population growth as well as real estate development. Our findings highlight the need for policymakers to take a holistic approach by considering the size of cities together with their social, environmental, and economic characteristics in order to minimise inequality and achieve coordinated urban development goals.     

基于SBO-PP模型的水资源可持续发展能力评价模型及应用

为利用投影寻踪(PP)技术科学,客观评价区域水资源可持续发展能力,基于生态环境、水资源和经济社会因素选取20个指标构建区域水资源可持续发展能力评价指标体系。利用新型仿生群体智能算法——凉亭鸟优化(SBO)算法优化PP技术最佳投影方向,提出SBO-PP水资源可持续发展能力评价模型,并构建灰狼优化(GWO)算法-PP模型、人工蜂群(ABC)算法-PP模型、差分进化(DE)算法-PP模型、地理生物学优化(BBO)算法-PP模型、粒子群优化(PSO)算法-PP模型作对比,以云南省2006—2015年及2020年水资源可持续发展能力评价为例进行实例研究。结果表明:SBO算法优化PP技术获得的适应度值优于GWO、ABC、DE、BBO和PSO算法,具有较好的求解精度、稳健性能和极值寻优能力。SBO-PP模型对云南省2006—2007年水资源可持续发展能力评价为"较差",2008—2015年评价为"中等",2020年评价为"较强"。     

落后地区旅游定位及发展分析研究--以贵州毕节地区为例

西部落后地区在全国旅游业迅速发展的当今，如何抓住机遇，在客观评价旅游发展的区位及区域优势的基础上，明确定位，以避免旅游发展当中的盲目性，从而实现旅游的跨越式发展，是其面临的重要问题：分析了毕节地区与贵州省在旅游资源的丰度、分布密度(面积相对密度和人口相对密度)、类型和质量、旅游饭店、星级宾馆、旅游商品定点生产单位、旅行社、游客数量及旅游收入，针对存在的问题，提出了相应的建议和措施。