Innovation behaviour of firms in a small open economy: the case of the Czech manufacturing industry

This paper describes the role of R&D and analyse its impact on productivity in the Czech economy in a CDM model. Four CIS waves (2001, 2003, 2006, and 2008) were used in the CDM model. The estimated low innovation input elasticity around 9 % describes the Czechs as poor innovators in the EU. This economy was a developing country until 2006 and we have observed a substantive FDI inflow since 1998. Multinationals have a higher sales share now and are an essential part of the economy. Multinationals engage less in innovation, but innovating MNEs spend more on R&D per employee and appropriate more from their innovated goods. The FDI inflow was a form of innovation wave. Innovation output is an important determinant for boosting productivity among SME’s. Public support had positive effect on innovation intensity; however, no additional effect on innovation output.     

Fiscal policy,macroeconomic performance and industry structure in a small open economy

We analyse how fiscal policy affects both the macroeconomy and the industry structure, using a multi-sector macroeconomic model of the Norwegian economy with an inflation targeting monetary policy. Our simulations show that the magnitude of the government spending and labour tax cut multipliers, whether monetary policy is active or passive, is comparable to what is found in the literature. A novel finding from our simulations is that the industry structure is substantially affected by an expansionary fiscal policy, as value added in the non-traded goods sector increases at the expense of value added in the traded goods sector. Moreover, expansionary fiscal policy reduces the mark-ups in the traded goods sector, while the mark-ups are roughly unchanged in the non-traded goods sector. The contraction of activity in the traded goods sector increases when monetary tightening accompanies the fiscal stimulus. Hence, we find that such a policy mix is likely to produce significant de-industrialization in a small open economy with inflation targeting.     

Testing for trends in the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactured goods

This paper joins the statistical debate on the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactured goods by contributing to the methodological discussion and presenting new evidence using data series covering almost the whole of the 20th century. Using statistical tests that take into account breaks in the series, it is found that over the 20th century the relative prices of primary commodities dropped to nearly one-third of their level at the beginning of the century in two “installments”, when random shocks led to structural breaks, and not in a gradual way as implied by either a deterministic or stochastic trend. Possible reasons for the structural breaks and their policy implications are discussed.     

Monetary policy in a small open economy with durable goods and differing cash-in-advance constraints

We consider the effects of inflation in a small open economy when expenditures on non-durables are more heavily financed with money than expenditures on durables. The distinctions between non-durables and durables, and asymmetric cash-in-advance constraints give rise to important dynamics.     

Price-cost margins and foreign trade in U.S. textile and apparel industries: An analysis of pooled cross-section and time-series data

This study finds an unexpected, positive and significant association between price-cost margins and import-domestic shipment ratio for the U.S. textile and apparel industries, using pooled cross-section and time-series data. Distortions created by import quotas account for this anomalous finding.     

Export and import composition as determinants of bilateral trade in goods: evidence from Russia

Conventional theory and several empirical studies state that incomes and exchange rates are the key determinants of the trade balance. Here, we argue that export and import composition are also key explanatory variables because some goods are inelastic and/or with a high added value, directly and indirectly affecting income and price elasticities and trade balance. Thus, if exports and/or imports significantly consist of price inelastic products, then, a positive and a negative effect, respectively, should be expected on the trade balance. Using bilateral trade data and dynamic panel models, we found that the ratio of exports of crude petroleum and natural gas (price inelastic goods) to total exports is significantly and positively associated with the Russian trade balance in goods. For its part, Russian imports of high-tech goods (income elastic and price inelastic with a high added value) show a negative association. The goods balance of Russia also responded to changes in relative income, but there is only weak evidence of reactions to changes in the exchange rate. These findings partially explain the persistent surplus in the Russian trade balance and current account.     

International trade and macroeconomic dynamics: The case of U.S. bilateral trade with G-7 countries

The short- and long-run effects of exchange rates, income, interest rates and government spending on U.S. bilateral trade with the other G-7 countries are investigated using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The primary contribution of this study is to consider separating the analysis of exports and imports in an integrated model that empirically encompasses four major schools of thoughts – elasticity, Keynesian income, absorption and monetary approaches – in order to identify macroeconomic linkages to U.S. bilateral trade with the other G-7 countries accurately. Results suggest that, in both the short- and long-run, U.S. imports and exports are highly sensitive to changes in U.S. and foreign income, while U.S. imports and exports are relatively insensitive to changes in bilateral exchange rate. It is also found that both exports and imports are more responsive to changes in government spending than changes in interest rates in both the short- and long-run.     

The political economy of preferential trade arrangements: The case of Japan

ABSTRACT

Support for open trade regimes varies. We analyze Japanese survey data on individuals' preferences for TPP, unilateral import liberalization, and East Asian economic integration, and compare factors influencing policy preferences. First, despite the massive negative campaigns against TPP, 42.8% of individuals support Japan’s participation in TPP, vs. 21.1% against. Second, economic factors do matter for an individual in determining his/her policy preference over TPP. Third, noneconomic factors such as gender, age, access to accurate information, and attachment to hometown also feature as determinants. Fourth, although preferences over TPP and other policy options are positively correlated, some factors decrease TPP support but do not undermine support for two other less-politicized policy options: lack of access to accurate information and some industry and regional TPP-specific factors. Criticism impacts negatively on FTA policy preferences. Finally, we discuss economic policy implications for relationships between China, Japan, and Korea.

Abbreviations: FTA: Free trade agreement; JA: Japan agricultural cooperative; TPP: Trans-Pacific partnership agreement.     

Clubs as a case of competitive industry with goods of variable quality

The paper provides a new proof for the optimality of market provision for Buchanan's club goods where club goods are treated as goods of variable quality. This approach extends the theory of clubs, and introduces congestion to the analysis of competitive equilibrium with goods of variable quality.     

Optimal exporting of exhaustible resources with endogenous trade revenue: The case of a resource-scarce and capital-short economy

This paper discusses a dynamic trade problem of a resource-scarce and capital-short open economy. In this economy, exhaustible resources are traded for foreign capital. Different from previous research on similar topics, the models in this paper allows for endogenous export revenue. The optimal trade behavior of the economy is discussed here. The efficiency conditions for the optimal trading under various assumptions are derived. These conditions correspond to the noted Hotelling rules in a closed economy. Finally, policy implications of the results are presented.     

Disciplining firms: the impact of trade reforms on profit margins in Indian industry

The paper analyses the effects of increased trade exposure on the profitability of firms in Indian industry. While trade reforms are often expected to decrease profit margins as firms struggle to compete in international markets, there is the possibility that increased competition may improve firm efficiency and provide a positive impetus to firm profitability. This paper is different from many others in this area in that it considers both these possibilities. An efficiency index is created to directly analyse the impact of changing efficiency levels on firm profit margins. Results indicate that liberalization significantly influenced profit margins. However, its main effect is through the impact that it has had on other firm variables - market shares, advertising, R&D and exports - all of which changed after 1991. While exports have had a pro-competitive effect on profit margins in the selected sample, AD and R&D both cause an increase in profit margins. It is also found that neither capital nor managerial capabilities (as proxied by remuneration) are particularly effective in increasing profit margins.     

International trade and terrestrial open-access renewable resources in a small open economy

Abstract .  In this paper, I investigate the effects of trade liberalization and policies on deforestation by extending a small open economy model with open-access renewable resources developed by Brander and Taylor (1997a) . I endogenize the carrying capacity of the resource. I find, unlike Brander and Taylor, that trade liberalization may increase the forest stock in the resource-abundant country and may decrease the forest stock in the resource-scarce country. Moreover, the policies primarily aimed at protecting forests, such as import restrictions by importing countries and forest certification for well-managed forests, may have perverse effects on the forest stock.     

Dynamic analysis of trade balance behavior in a small open economy: the J-curve phenomenon and the Czech economy

This paper focuses on empirical investigation of the J-curve phenomenon in the Czech economy. There are emphasized some problem areas of past research and     

The structure of wage-price determination and unemployment in a small open economy

Conclusions The main focus of this paper is the analysis of consequences of different hierarchies of wage determination in a simple two-sector model of a small open economy. Already from the preliminary discussion of some comparative static experiments in Section 2 of this paper it could be demonstrated that it can make a big difference whether wage leadership is taken over by the exposed or sheltered sector. In the long run this should be primarily a concern for advocates of fiscal policy measures. Remembering that fiscal policy by means of public expenditure increases (that means not tax cuts or transfer payments increases) primarily is concentrated in construction (in most countries a heavily sheltered business) it will depend on the hierarchy of wage determination between the two sectors whether or not the employment increase in the sheltered sector is crowding-out employment in the exposed sector. This type of crowding-out is not transmitted via higher rates of interest (which is kept constant in this model) but real wage increases in the sheltered sector.This paper is part of a research project on Shocks to Competitiveness and Economic Adjustment in Mature Industrial Economies financed by the Ford Foundation and coordinated by Sven Arndt, University of California, Santa Cruz.I am grateful to my discussant at the conference in Hernstein, Klaus Neusser, University of Vienna, who provided enough material for future improvements of this research.     

Public infrastructure for production and international trade in a small open economy: a dynamic analysis

This paper develops a dynamic trade model with a stock of public infrastructure, which has a property of “unpaid factor of production”. We show that a country with a smaller (larger) labor endowment tends to become an exporter of a good whose productivity is more (less) sensitive to the stock of public infrastructure. We also show that after the opening of trade, the labor-scarce country becomes unambiguously better off but the labor-abundant country may become worse off. Overall, these results contrasts with those obtained in the case of public intermediate goods with a “creation of atmosphere” property.     

论贸易自由化对澳大利亚制造业中的横向、纵向行业内交易的影响

一、前言 尽管有大量的有关行业内贸易（IIT，即同时出口和进口类似的产品）现象的文献，但经验的结果是不一致的。除了变量度量的问题外，未能把IIT分成横向差异产品交易和纵向差异产品交易或许也是个起作用的因素。最普遍的IIT指数——格拉贝-劳埃德（GL）指数确实没有分清横向差异产品和纵向差异产品；尽管事实上理论已表明这两类产品的决定因素是不同的。这已在近年来的大量经验研究中得到了再证实。横向的IIT指的是特征或属性不同的类似产品的交易，而纵向IIT则是涉及质量不同的类似产品的交易。克鲁格曼（1980，1988）和兰开斯特（1980）已证明了横向IIT是受规模经济和偏好多样化影响的，而法尔维（1981）则证明了具备的生产要素决定纵向IIT。因此，IIT必须被分成横向差异产品交易和纵向差异产品交易并被分别建模。将这两者混淆可能产生矛盾的结果。     

Private bureaucracies,organizational efficiency,and Australia's manufacturing trade structure: a comparison with Japan

This study tests the hypothesis that use of in-house information services, which are approximated by the relative size of private bureaucracies or the ‘management sector’, is a statistically significant determinant of Australia's manufacturing trade structure. Large private bureaucracies are a feature of industrialized economies. Their growth, and concomitantly huge resource use, suggest that informational and organizational efficiency have become of paramount importance for economic development. However, variables trying to capture these phenomena are neglected in mainstream trade analysis. The study is conducted for a cross-section of Australian industries and the results are compared with those obtained from a similar study for Japan. The empirical results confirm the importance of private bureaucracies as a trade determinant. Moreover, they seem to dominate some major conventional factors. In the Australian case, the new variables capture an increasingly important aspect of ‘human capital’, i.e., its potentially inefficient use due to lack of organizational innovation. Comparison with Japan indicates major structural weaknesses of Australian manufacturing which hinder the development of a revealed comparative advantage and exports. The paper also comments on the controversial debate concerning Australia's current account deficit, and on the broad implications of the study's findings for economic policy. It concludes with suggestions for further research.     

Optimal input trade policy under economic uncertainties in a small open economy

This article theoretically analyses optimal input trade policy under economic uncertainties in a small open economy. The benchmark model explains both key business cycle moments and asset prices of a representative emerging economy, and the corresponding deterministic version of the model finds no gain by deviating from the free input trade policy. The main findings are as follows: (1) it is optimal for the government to subsidize imported intermediate inputs in the benchmark model and (2) the result is robust to various shocks, various key structural parameters and various preference specifications.     

Exchange rate changes and endogenous terms of trade effects in a small open economy

This paper shows that the small-country assumption of dependent-economy models is unlikely to hold for many of the cases in which this class of models is used, for example, in the analysis of a terms of trade shock in the “commodity currency” models. When a shock affects most or all of the small countries exporting a commodity, the combined exchange rate effects will result in endogenous terms of trade changes even for those countries too small to individually affect world markets. The paper also explores the possible implications of these secondary terms of trade changes for the dependent-economy models.