The macroeconomics of social pacts

In this paper we analyze macroeconomic interactions between trade unions, the central bank and the fiscal policymaker. We explicitly model unions’ concern for public expenditure, paving the way for an analysis of the potential gains from cooperation between the fiscal policymaker and the unions, i.e. the so-called corporatist or social pacts that have characterized economic policies in a number of European countries in the last few decades. We also highlight the profoundly different incentives generated by institutional arrangements such as the Maastricht criteria and the Stability and Growth Pact. The former has unambiguously induced more efficient outcomes; the latter is likely to backfire!     

The macroeconomics of the equal pay act

This study uses simulations based on 1980 U.S. Census data to estimate the economic disruption that would occur if the wages of women and men were adjusted according to the principles of equal pay for equal work as set out in the Equal Pay Act of 1963. Disruption is measured by the effect such wage adjustments have on the macroeconomic variables of nominal Gross National Product and unemployment. A range of government policy options which could be used to ameliorate the impact of these adjustments in earnings is also examined.     

The economy as an evolving network

The purpose of this paper is to suggest a view of the economy as a network of links between the individuals involved. One approach is to consider the structure of links as fixed as is the case with spatial models in which agents are situated on a lattice, another is to regard all links as possible but stochastic. If the probability of any of the links existing is uniform we have the situation familiar from the “population games” of evolutionary game theory. The basic idea here is to allow the network to evolve and to make the probability of each of the links dependent on the experience of the agents involved. Such analysis can give rise to interesting behaviour on the aggregate level which is very different from that which might have been predicted by looking at the individuals in isolation.     

The macroeconomics of unbalanced growth and the expanding public sector: Some simple tests of a model of government growth

A now classic model of public sector growth is Baumol's (1967) ‘Macroeconomics of Unbalanced Growth’. That model implies that one cause of public sector expenditure growth is a low or zero rate of productivity growth in the public sector relative to the private sector. Previous studies have tested, and partially confirmed, the Baumol hypothesis by computing productivity indices for various public sector activities. In this paper I attempt to test that model in a more direct manner. The unbalanced growth model is used to predict growth rates of per capita government expenditures, government's share of GNP and the pattern of government expenditure growth. These predictions are compared with observed growth rates of aggregate government expenditures. The model predicts the growth rate aggregate government expenditures, the growth rate of government's share of GNP, and the pattern of government expenditure growth reasonably well, and the data tend to support the Baumol model.     

The transition to an oil contraction economy

A normative analysis of the problem of optimal extraction of a nonrenewable resource is considered. The economy depends on the essential nonrenewable resource and the rate of the resource extraction is increasing over time. At some point the government gradually switches to a sustainable (in sense of non-decreasing consumption over time) pattern of the resource extraction. Different approaches are offered for the construction of the paths of switching to decreasing resource use. Some seemingly attractive short-run policies of switching to decreasing extraction can run counter to long-run criteria. If we consider the maximin principle, applied to the negative shock on the output percent change, as the short-run criterion, then the optimal transition path can be consistent with the long-run government goals. It is shown analytically and numerically that there are values of parameters for the transition paths of extraction that consumption along these paths is asymptotically constant or infinitely growing. A new approach to the Rawlsian maximin criterion which allows for growth of consumption is offered.     

Options and sunspots in a simple monetary economy

Summary. We study sunspot immunity in a dynamic monetary economy in which consumers are allowed to trade put and call option contracts on the general price level. We define the concept of strong sunspot immunity to characterize economies that have no sunspot equilibria regardless of the number of extrinsic states and their probabilities of occurrence. We show that a small number of option contracts can make an economy strongly sunspot immune. In addition, we demonstrate how asset re-trading opportunities, and the associated capital gains and losses, reduce the number of options needed for this result to obtain. Received: August 13, 1996; revised version: January 20, 1997     

Political economy of taxation in an overlapping-generations economy

This paper analyzes the effects of intergenerational conflict on capital and labor income tax rates, transfers, and government spending in a model of multidimensional policy choice. The different nature of tax liabilities for the young and the old can explain why the old receive large gross lump-sum transfers through social security, while the young receive little or none. A natural link also emerges between the size of the government as a provider of public goods and the magnitude of transfers that the same government will implement.     

Intermediate macroeconomics: The importance of being post Keynesian

Post Keynesians should not be afraid to teach what they believe represents the best explanation of macroeconomic fluctuations. Our colleagues in the mainstream certainly are not and, realistically speaking, it is hard to imagine that any student would be handicapped by not having had a full dose of IS-LM, the accelerationist hypothesis, Phillips Curves, and so on. Furthermore, there may not be a more opportune time to introduce post Keynesianism to undergraduate students with Neoclassicals still recovering from their inability to explain the financial crisis. This article argues for a post Keynesian-focused intermediate macroeconomics and offers a sample plan. It reviews the state of post-financial crisis mainstream macro teaching and references pedagogical literature in showing how a post Keynesian transformation and reorganization can be made most effective.     

The core of an exchange economy with asymmetric information

This paper studies the core of an exchange economy in which agents are asymmetrically informed about states of nature. An agent's information is modelled as part of his consumption set and thus as part of his consumption plans. If an agent joins a coalition, his information changes according to an exogenously given information rule, a concept introduced by B. Allen. It is shown that an exchange economy with asymmetric information generates a well defined cooperative game and that the core of this game and thus the core of the underlying economy is nonempty. In contrast to recent results, this holds independently of the given information rule.     

Towards an information economy : The case of Singapore

Recent empirical studies have documented the emergence of information-based economies in developed countries within Europe, the U.S.A., Japan, and Australia. Casual observations suggest that the newly industrializing country of Singapore is proceeding towards a similar trend. The primary purpose of this paper is to account for the share of Singapore's national product which originates from informational activities. In particular, we define and estimate the size of Singapore's information sector within an input-output framework. Our results indicated that a sizable portion of Singapore's economy is information-based. In view of the significant penetration of informational activities in economic production, advances in communication technology and concomitant improvements in information-handling capabilities are bound to affect factor productivities and incomes with consequences for a country's pattern of employment and production structure. It is anticipated that an economics of communication becomes necessary for an awareness of communication technology as a choice variable in economic planning. We conclude our discussion with an assessment of the admissability of an information sector concept in economic analysis and the usefulness of empirical studies based on such a concept.     

The performance and robustness of simple monetary policy rules in models of the Canadian economy

Abstract.  In this paper, we evaluate seven simple monetary policy rules in a wide range of models of the Canadian economy. Our results indicate that none of the seven simple policy rules we examined is robust to model uncertainty, in that no single rule performs well in all models. In fact, our results show that the performance of some of the simple rules, particularly rules with interest rate smoothing and rules with a high coefficient on the inflation gap, can substantially deviate from that of the optimal rule and can even be unstable in some models. Furthermore, we find that "open‐economy" rules do not perform well in many models. We find that adding an exchange rate term to a simple policy rule often increases the value of the policy‐maker's loss function. Although it is not robust, we find that a simple nominal Taylor‐type rule that has a coefficient of 2 on the inflation gap and 0.5 on the output gap outperforms the other simple rules in a certain class of models. However, even in those models, the loss‐function value of this simple rule can be substantially higher than that of the optimal or base‐case rule. JEL classification: E52, E58     

An appraisal of the new classical macroeconomics

This paper appraises the “new classical macroeconomics” within the framework of Lakatos's methodology of scientific research programs. In terms of its ability to predict new facts, the new classical macroeconomics program is theoretically progressive; in terms of its ability to verify some of these predictions, the program is also empirically progressive. From these considerations I conclude that the new classical macroeconomics represents a progressive scientific research program.     

惯例经济到法制经济--从WTO的基本要求谈起

当前我们要建设规范的制度化的市场经济，重要的一点就是要促使我们的市场经济尽快实现从惯例经济到法制经济的过渡，而这与WTO的基本要求即开放市场，遵守规则是相符的。从惯例经济到法制经济的过渡是一种社会历史的进步，尽快实现这种过渡能促使我们从WTO中谋取更多的利益，而只有按照WTO的基本要求去做，才能更快地实现这种过渡。     

Causality in macroeconomics Kevin D. Hoover

Money is not the result of material processes. Its roles in the economy assume a social and moral ethos. In turn, the ethos is dependent upon custom and custom as law. Money does not remember its origins in these prior agreements, and often ignores the moral import of choices affecting its quantity and cost. Money, too, is not subordinate to society, or limited by societal boundaries. Rather, by a reversal, the structures of the social and moral order are themselves shaped by money. Money’s dominance, and therefore its freedom, appears complete. At the same time, however, the network of financial exchange and currency evaluation require formal agreements which assume the global unity and solidarity of a moral order.     

The effects of the raising-the-official-pension-age policy in an overlapping generations economy

This paper studies how economic variables are affected by raising the official pension age. Although it is said that such a policy increases output, this paper shows that such a statement is not necessarily true. Moreover, the paper finds that the social security benefit can decrease, which implies that it might be impossible to sustain the same level of benefit only by such a policy.