The EMU effects on asset market holdings and the recent financial crisis

This paper examines if there are significant integration effects from the establishment of European Monetary Union (EMU) and the introduction of euro on EMU and non-EMU equity and bond markets. This is done by looking at the holdings of these markets. We investigate to what extent these effects have been affected by the recent global financial crisis. This is done based on gravity model determining bilateral asset holding among the EMU countries, non-EMU European countries and the rest of world. This model can control for the effects of other economic (gravity-type) variables on the effects of the EMU on financial markets, like the size of the capital markets across countries, the geographical distance, information asymmetries etc. Ignoring these effects may exaggerate the actual EMU integration effects. The paper provides clear cut evidence that the establishment of the EMU had significant integration effects on equity and bond markets. It significantly increased the EMU bond and equity holdings by the EMU and non-EMU investors. These effects have become important since year 2001. However, they have considerably reduced after year 2007, due to the recent global financial crisis. Across the EMU countries, we have found that the strongest disintegration effects of the above crisis were observed for the peripheral countries of the EMU. These effects became evident before the start of the European debt crisis in early 2010.     

Assessing Bond Market Developments Pot-Euro

As a result of global trends in the financial industry, European financial markets are in the midst of a major transformation, and Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) is acting as a primary catalyst for such change. Over time financial integration will provide European markets with sufficient liquidity and scale to turn them into effective rivals of the U.S. markets.
This paper provides a framework for assessing the likely consequences of EMU for the evolution of European bond markets. First, it discusses broad fundamental shifts in international capital flows and how EMU is expected to affect them. Second, it analyzes in some detail the two most important portfolio shifts expected to accompany Monetary Union: potential changes in currency reserves held by central banks and diversification of international investors' portfolios. Third, it considers the possibility that the asset management industry and households' increased appetite for risk will lead to a major shift on the demand side. On the supply side, it explores the likely effect of Monetary Union on government bond yield spreads and expected changes in the key pricing factors.
The paper concludes with an overview of the considerable growth prospects for the European corporate bond market. In the Euromarket, which has traditionally been the preserve of borrowers of high credit standing, there have already been signs of increased interest in corporate issues, particularly lower-rated ones. The search for higher yields by investors, greater expertise in analyzing credit risks by institutional investors, and reduced issuance in European government bond markets will combine to spur growth in the European corporate bond market. As a consequence, the traditional bank-oriented relations will clearly weaken, and more companies will find opportunities to raise capital and obtain financing at lower cost.     

Economic interdependence and common stochastic trends: A comparative analysis between EMU and non-EMU stock markets

Whether economic interdependence among countries is a contributing factor to cointegration and common stochastic trends in international stock markets is indiscernible due to contradictory results from prior empirical work. This study aims to add clarity to this issue through a more distinct grouping of countries and methodological enhancements. A comparative analysis of cointegration is conducted between stock market price indices of major Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and non-EMU countries. The conventional Johansen methodology is augmented with several diagnostic techniques (that have not been all inclusive in previous studies) to ensure the robustness of test results. Major findings pertinent to investors and policymakers are that economic interdependence appears to be the important contributing factor and that the U.S. stock market does not exert influences on long-run performances of other included stock markets. Furthermore, while the UK is not an EMU member, it may be viewed as a quasi EMU participant due to its stock market being cointegrated with and yet one of the common stochastic trends (besides those of Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands) within the EMU stock markets under investigation.     

EMU and European government bond market integration

In this study we adopt the CAPM-based model of Bekaert and Harvey (1995) to compare the differences in the relative importance of two sources of systemic risk (world and Eurozone) on Government bond returns, in two groups of countries in EU-15. Results show that euro markets are less vulnerable to the influence of world risk factors, and more vulnerable to EMU risk factors. However, they are only partially integrated. For their part, the markets of the countries that decided to stay out of the Monetary Union present a higher vulnerability to external risk factors.     

Measuring the liquidity impact on EMU government bond prices

Abstract

The work reported in this paper aimed to measure the impact of liquidity on European Monetary Union (EMU) government bond prices. Although there is a growing theoretical and empirical literature on liquidity effects in fixed income markets there is no clear answer to the questions how to measure liquidity and whether liquidity is priced in the market at all. The empirical analysis here is based on a unique data set containing individual bond data from six major EMU government bond markets, allowing one to compare yield curves estimated for subportfolios formed with respect to different potential liquidity measures. In a second procedure, liquidity measures are collected on the individual bond level and estimated pricing errors, given some reference yield curve, are regressed against these liquidity variables. This enables the conduction of formal tests on the pricing impact of liquidity measures. Results indicate that the benchmark property and the number of contributors are the most promising liquidity proxies having significant results in most countries. The results do not support the hypothesis that other liquidity measures under consideration, such as the on-the-run property, the issue size, and bid–ask spread related measures have a persistent price impact. A cross-country analysis of the subportfolio level indicates that liquidity effects cannot explain the size of the yield spreads between different issuers. This implies that effects other than liquidity, such as credit risk, are important driving factors of cross-country yield spreads.     

Sovereign bond yield spreads: A time-varying coefficient approach

We study the determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads across 10 EMU countries between Q1/1999 and Q1/2010. We apply a semiparametric time-varying coefficient model to identify, to what extent an observed change in the yield spread is due to a shift in macroeconomic fundamentals or due to altering risk pricing. We find that at the beginning of EMU, the government debt level and the general investors’ risk aversion had a significant impact on interest differentials. In the subsequent years, however, financial markets paid less attention to the fiscal position of a country and the safe haven status of Germany diminished in importance. By the end of 2006, two years before the fall of Lehman Brothers, financial markets began to grant Germany safe haven status again. One year later, when financial turmoil began, the market reaction to fiscal loosening increased considerably. The altering in risk pricing over time period confirms the need of time-varying coefficient models in this context.     

Integration of European bond markets

I investigate the time variation in the integration of EU government bond markets. The integration is measured by the explanatory power of European factor portfolios for the individual bond markets for each year. The integration of the government bond markets is stronger for EMU than non-EMU members and stronger for old than new EU members. For EMU countries, the integration is weaker the lower the credit rating is. During the recent crisis periods, the integration is weaker, particularly for EMU countries.     

Volatility co-movements between emerging sovereign bonds: Is there segmentation between geographical areas?

This paper analyses the dynamic interrelationship between spreads on selected sovereign bonds issued by 10 emerging countries. It investigates the nature of the volatility transmission in secondary bond markets through conditional covariance estimates obtained by orthogonal methods. This approach, which combines PCA with GARCH volatility modelling, filters away idiosyncratic news and focuses on spreads dynamics driven by common factors. We find convincing evidence of co-movements between spread changes; more within than across geographical areas. Conditional covariations increase in periods of turbulence and subsequently subside. The time-varying minimum variance artificial portfolios, which are used here for model validation, show that, in spite of systemic risk, international portfolio diversification is still a powerful strategy for risk reduction.     

The impact of the euro on Europe's financial markets

This paper presents an overview of the impact of the introduction of the euro on Europe's financial structure over the first four years since the start of EMU. It analyzes changes in money markets, bond markets, equity markets and foreign exchange markets. Euro's role in originating or catalyzing trends has been uneven across the spectrum of financial markets. From the supply side, banks and investors in fixed income markets have become more focused on the characteristics of individual borrowers rather than the nationality of the issuer and have built up expertise to evaluate credit risk. European equity markets have also been affected by the enhanced ability of investors to build strategies with a pan‐European perspective as prices increasingly reflected risk factors specific to industrial sectors rather than individual countries. On the borrower side, EMU has increased the attractiveness of market‐based financing methods by allowing debt issuers to tap institutional portfolios across the euro area. Lower barriers to cross‐border financial transactions have also increased the contestability of the market for financial services, be it at the wholesale or the retail level. The introduction of the euro has also highlighted the shortcomings of existing institutional structures and areas where excessive focus on narrowly defined interests may stand in the way of realizing the full potential benefits from the new environment. Diverging legal and institutional infrastructures and market practices can impede further financial market development and deepening. Hence, the euro has put a premium on cooperation between national authorities and institution as a means of achieving a more harmonized financial environment. The impact of EMU on depth in foreign exchange markets has been less clear‐cut, as volatility, spreads, trading volumes and liquidity appear not to have changed in a substantial way. Overall, it seems that the new currency has made some progress towards the goal of becoming a currency of international stature that would rival that of the US dollar. However, a number of the necessary next steps towards achieving this goal are also among the trickiest to implement.     

Credit Spread Changes and Equity Volatility: Evidence from Daily Data

We investigate the determinants of daily changes in credit spreads in the U.S. corporate bond market. Using a sample of liquid investment grade and high‐yield bonds, we show that both systematic bond and stock market factors as well as idiosyncratic equity market factors affect changes in the yield spread at the daily frequency. In particular, we find that increase in stock market volatility has a positive effect on changes in the spread of corporate bonds over the corresponding Treasuries beyond that captured by standard term structure variables. Our results show that there is an almost contemporaneous inverse relationship between changes in the bond yield spread and the stock return of the issuing firm.     

Emerging Bond Market Volatility and Country Spreads

Using JPMorgan's emerging market bond index, this paper analyzes how increases in country credit spreads can persist in emerging bond markets. The results of T-GARCH regressions show that, during financial crisis periods, emerging countries' credit spreads may increase persistently as a result of interaction between changes in spreads and volatilities, making emerging bond markets more turbulent. The results suggest that emerging countries should endeavor to develop a stabilization mechanism by enhancing information efficiency in bond markets. In particular, because Asian countries have experienced persistent, overreactive volatility, this paper implies that Asian countries should work together more closely during financial crisis periods.     

European bank equity risk: 1995–2006

We examine changes in bank equity risk following the formation of the Economic Monetary Union (EMU) in 1999. With the exception of Germany, we observe a decline in bank risk across euro-zone countries. Total risk decreased for 70% of the euro-zone banks in our sample with a statistically significant decrease in total risk observed for 51% of the sample. Similar results are found for idiosyncratic risk and systematic risk. These results are robust to financial crisis effects and test specification. Moreover, we find some evidence of a decrease in bank equity risk for a sample of neighbouring non-euro-zone European countries, consistent with the existence of some spill over effects.     

Credit default swaps and the market for sovereign debt

In this paper, we analyze the determinants and effects of credit default swap (CDS) trading initiation in the sovereign bond market. CDS trading initiation is associated with a 30–150 basis point reduction in sovereign bond yields, with greater yield reductions accruing to higher default risk economies. For countries with high default risk, rated B or lower by Standard and Poor’s, CDS initiation is also associated with significant price efficiency benefits in the underlying market. CDS trading initiation is more likely following increases in local equity index volatility, index spreads for regional and global CDS markets, or depreciation of the local currency relative to the US dollar, and decreases in a country’s ability to service foreign debt. Our results are robust to selection bias controls based on these factors.     

The impact of distressed economies on the EU sovereign market

Financially distressed economies inside the European Union (EU) are being blamed for producing a general increase in borrowing costs. This article analyzes the channels of default risk transmission within the EU countries using the information content in the sovereign Credit Default Swap (CDS) market. We proceed in two directions. First, we test the existence of cross-border volatility effects between the central and the peripheral EU countries. Second, we explore the effect of distressed economies on the default and risk premium constituents of sovereign default swaps. We show a significant volatility spillover from distressed to central European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) economies. This causality pattern leads to a significant impact on the default swap risk premia. On average, the risk premium accounts for approximately 42% of central EMU spreads and 56% of the spreads for those countries outside of the EMU. The peripheral risk also affects the default component of central economies, although its impact is lower.     

Downside risk and the size of credit spreads

We investigate why spreads on corporate bonds are so much larger than expected losses from default. Systematic factors make very little contribution to spreads, even if higher moments or downside effects are taken into account. Instead we find that sizes of spreads are strongly related to idiosyncratic-risk factors: not only to idiosyncratic equity volatility, but even more to idiosyncratic bond volatility and idiosyncratic bond value-at-risk. Idiosyncratic bond volatility helps to explain spreads because it reflects not just the distribution of firm value but is also a proxy for liquidity risk. Idiosyncratic bond value-at-risk adds to this by capturing the left-skewness of the firm-value distribution. We confirm our results both for the initial 1997-2004 sample period and also out of sample for 2005-2009, which includes the sub-prime crisis. Overall, credit spreads are large because they incorporate a large risk premium related to investors’ fears of extreme losses.     

Mutual funds flows and the geography of contagion

This paper studies the dynamics and geography of investments made by international mutual funds located in advanced markets. I identify precise global and regional dynamics in equity and bond flows. Very few countries receive (or lose) funding in isolation. I also find strong evidence of global contagion: when financial conditions in developed markets change, emerging markets' funding is heavily affected. I illustrate this finding by deriving contagion maps showing where contagion spreads and with what intensity. In general, the results suggest that push effects from advanced market investors affect massively developing countries and expose them to sudden stops and surges.     

Home Bias in Emerging Bond and Stock Markets

In this paper, we empirically examine sizes and sources of home bias in both bond and equity markets for twenty emerging countries and twenty-two developed countries over the 2001-11 sample period. The average size of home bias in both bond and stock markets is found to be much larger in emerging countries than in developed countries. Using the explanatory variables in two categories of economic development and market performance, we employ dynamic panel data regression models to analyze major sources of home bias. The main results are the following: First, market performance factors generally affect home bias more strongly than do economic development factors. Second, market factors including market return, volatility, and liquidity support various hypotheses under informational asymmetries, such as return chasing, risk aversion, and flight to quality. Third, among macroeconomic factors, it is shown that real gross domestic product growth has negative effects and country leverage has positive effects on a specific home bias, backing up the size-bias and the flight-to-quality hypotheses, respectively. Finally, and perhaps most important in this paper, the effect of bond market performance on equity home bias is found to be significantly stronger than the effect of equity market performance on bond home bias from the market interaction model estimation, suggesting that a policy design needs to begin with increasing bond market efficiency to reduce equity market home bias.     

The role of country,regional and global market risks in the dynamics of Latin American yield spreads

We analyze the joint impact of country, regional and global market risks on daily changes in yield spreads of Mexico, Colombia and Brazil. In contrast to previous studies, we consider a homogenous set of liquid Eurobonds which are representative of current emerging bond markets. All risk-factor groups are significant but country-specific differences exist. Spread changes of all three countries are mainly driven by global risk. The second most important contributor to spread changes is country risk for Mexico and Brazil but regional risk for Colombia. The sensitivity of spread changes to risk factors varies with bond maturity.     

Evolution of international stock and bond market integration: Influence of the European Monetary Union

This paper examines the dynamic relationship between daily stock and government bond returns of selected countries over the past decade to infer the state and progress of inter-financial market integration. We proceed to empirically investigate the influence of the European Monetary Union (EMU) on time variations in inter-stock–bond market integration/segmentation dynamics using a two-step procedure: First, we document the downward trends in time-varying conditional correlations between stock and bond market returns in European countries, Japan and the US. Second, we investigate the causality and determinants of this interdependent relationship, in particular, whether the various macroeconomic convergence criteria associated with the EMU have played a significant role. We find that real economic integration and the reduction in currency risk have generally had the desired effect on financial integration but monetary policy integration may have created uncertain investor sentiments on the economic future of the EMU, thereby stimulating a flight to quality phenomenon.     

Sovereign risk premiums in the European government bond market

This paper provides a study of bond yield differentials among EU government bonds on the basis of a unique data set of issue spreads in the US and DM (Euro) bond market between 1993 and 2009. Interest differentials between bonds issued by EU countries and Germany or the USA contain risk premiums which increase with fiscal imbalances and depend negatively on the issuer’s relative bond market size. The start of the European Monetary Union has shifted market attention to deficit and debt service payments as key measures of fiscal soundness and eliminated liquidity premiums in the euro area. With the financial crisis, the cost of loose fiscal policy has increased considerably.