A parametric investigation of mortality transition in India: 1970-89

"This paper attempts to analyze mortality transition in India during [the] 1970s and 1980s through the modelling of the age pattern of mortality by applying the Heligman-Pollard model mortality schedule. The analysis reveals that mortality transition in India has not been uniform in all the age [or sex] groups....Middle-life mortality has been found to be more or less unchanged during the period under reference. Implications of the age pattern of mortality transition [on] health policy [are also] discussed."     

Recent trends in age-specific mortality in India

"In this paper we have analyzed the data from the Sample Registration System [SRS] on mortality by age and sex [in India] since 1970. Some of the major conclusions emerging from this analysis are: (i) Mortality has declined more rapidly among infants, children under 15 years and women of reproductive ages....(ii) Among adults, mortality has declined more rapidly among females than among males, the differential gain being largest in the age span 25-49. But in ages under 15, there is no evidence to suggest a gender differential in mortality decline. (iii) Among children and women of reproductive ages, mortality has declined more rapidly in urban areas than in rural areas but the reverse is true in the case of adult men.... The paper also analyzes the trends in mortality in major states of India during 1970-86." The authors observe a significant shift in patterns between 1978 and 1979, and conclude that this may be limited to changes in SRS data collection techniques.     

Regional variations in age pattern of mortality in India

"Using the cluster analysis technique and Heligman-Pollard mortality model, the present paper analyses the regional variations in age pattern of mortality in India around 1986-88. The paper identifies three broad patterns of age-specific mortality rates in the country--the Central-India Pattern; the South-India Pattern; and the North-West India Pattern. In addition, Kerala has its own typical pattern of age-specific mortality. Similarly, Assam (Males) and Jammu and Kashmir (Males) have their own typical pattern of age-specific mortality rates while the same is also true for Rajasthan (Females). The implications of age patterns of mortality identified in this analysis have also been discussed."     

Determinants of age at marriage in Karnataka during 1971-1981: a district level analysis

"In this paper we examined the interdistrict variations in mean age at marriage of males and females in Karnataka [India] in two points of time, 1971 and 1981, and also the possible factors influencing this variation....A multivariate analysis of the determinants of mean age at marriage in Karnataka showed that literacy rate, sex ratio of the population and percentage of villages electrified are important in explaining the regional and time variation in age at marriage of both sexes.... Our regression results indicated that a 10 per cent increase in female literacy rate is associated with approximately one-year increase in female age at marriage. However, neither the increase in female literacy nor the changes in the sex ratio of the population could explain all the increase in female age at marriage during 1971-81. This indirectly suggests that there was an increase in female age at marriage among all socio-economic groups."     

The increase in death and disease under "katstroika"

The author describes recent trends in mortality and morbidity in the successor states to the former Soviet Union. Separate consideration is given to mortality under late perestroika (1987-1991) and subsequent mortality trends. The author concludes that "the collapse of the USSR and the problems of the successor states have had severe adverse affects not only on macroeconomic indices but also on the mortality and morbidity of the population.... Since the collapse of the USSR, the mortality situation in the successor states has rapidly and significantly worsened. Between 1991 and 1993 the crude death rate in Russia rose by 26%. As a result, by 1993 the life expectancy at birth of Russian men had fallen to about 59, which is about 6 years below the level of 1987.... By 1993, male life expectancy at birth in Russia had fallen below the level of the medium income countries and had probably fallen to a level about that of Indonesia in the second half of the 1980s. Ukraine has also experienced an increase in mortality since the collapse of the USSR. In other successor states, experiencing serious military conflicts, such as Tadjikstan and Armenia, the proportionate increase in mortality was even larger than in Russia."     

How much do immigration and trade affect labor market outcomes?

"This paper provides new estimates of the impact of immigration and trade on the U.S. labor market.... We examine the relation between economic outcomes for native workers and immigrant flows to regional labor markets.... We...use the factor proportions approach to examine the contributions of immigration and trade to recent changes in U.S. educational wage differentials and attempt to provide a broader assessment of the impact of immigration on the incomes of U.S. natives." Comments and discussion by John DiNardo, John M. Abowd, and others are included (pp. 68-85).     

Technical Efficiency in the Production of Economic Knowledge

This paper is an attempt to estimate technical efficiency in the production of economic knowledge. To that end, an educational production frontier was estimated via linear programming and an index of technical efficiency computed by forming the ratio, actual post TUCE/computed post TUCE. Professor teaching preferences and student learning preferences along with age and sex were used as regressors in an attempt to identify factors accounting for technical efficiency. Students were found to be very efficient in the production of knowledge.     

Demographics and medical care spending: standard and non-standard effects

"In this paper, [the authors] examine the effects of likely demographic changes on medical spending for the elderly. Standard forecasts highlight the potential for greater life expectancy to increase costs: medical costs generally increase with age, and greater life expectancy means that more of the elderly will be in the older age groups. Two factors work in the other direction, however. First, increases in life expectancy mean that a smaller share of the elderly will be in the last year of life, when medical costs generally are very high.... Second, disability rates among the surviving population have been declining in recent years by 0.5 to 1.5 percent annually.... Thus, changes in disability and mortality should, on net, reduce average medical spending on the elderly. However, these effects are not as large as the projected increase in medical spending stemming from increases in overall medical costs."     

A note on the measurement of the slowdown in total factor productivity

Investigation of foreign exchange control generally focuses on the black market in currencies and the resultant welfare loss to the country under exchange control. But very little attempt has been made to formulate the internal income transfer from foreign exchange earners who choose not to resort to black market, to importers who receive the foreign exchange at less than free market rate. This paper quantifies such measures of income transfer as importer's cost savings, exporter's income transfer, and the transaction cost loss of the market. A case study is developed using the 1951–74 export figures of the state of Kerala in India, showing that the exchange-earning pure or net exporter pays a hidden subsidy to the exchange-consuming importer; and by extension, an exchange-earning agricultural region of a less developed country subsidizes the import-consuming industrial sector of that country.     

Health and family welfare base-line survey in Gokak taluka, 1993: a brief report

"The Institute of Economic Research undertook [a] base line survey in Gokak taluka [India].... The major objective was to provide a data base for evaluating programme efforts, and developing strategies and plans for the future.... The main object of the study was to provide base-line information on the levels of fertility, family planning, and maternal [and] child health care for the project area...[and] aspects of mortality and morbidity."     

A quantitative analysis of major determinants of rural-urban migration in Nigeria

"This paper discusses some major determinants of rural-urban migration in Nigeria using the logit estimation technique. It utilizes cross-sectional data generated from a national sample survey of internal migration conducted...between January and March 1988.... The empirical results revealed that the significant determinants of rural-urban migration in Nigeria are income, contact, cost, spoken English, ability to speak two Nigerian languages, distance, marital status, sex and ethnicity. The results further suggest that rural-urban migration is selective of single people and males. Proximity to urban areas where prospective migrants have relatives, friends and townspeople is an important factor."     

Popularizing spacing methods of family planning in rural areas: the perception of programme personnel and the community in Karnataka

"In this study an attempt has been made to identify the possible factors inhibiting the use of spacing methods through a field investigation in the rural areas of northern Karnataka [India] by interviewing both programme personnel and the community (leaders and couples). This paper presents the salient findings and policy implications of the study.... The specific objectives of the study were: (i) to assess the perception and experiences of the programme personnel, from district level to grassroots level, about popularizing spacing methods of family planning in the rural areas; (ii) to understand the community leaders' knowledge about spacing methods and their perception regarding couples accepting them; and (iii) to study the knowledge, attitude and practice of different family planning methods by couples...in the villages."     

Effectiveness of air pollution standards in reducing mortality in India

India experiences some of the highest air pollution levels globally, with 13 of the 20 most polluted cities in the world. In this paper, we estimate the relationship between air pollution policies in India and mortality for people of all ages and all causes. We estimate the relationship between mortality and two major air pollution regulations, the Supreme Court Action Plan (SCAP) and the Catalytic Converter (CC) policy. Although data for mortality in India have improved over time, the annual average mortality for many districts is volatile, with many outliers and missing values. After addressing these measurement issues in a difference-in-differences setup, we do not find evidence that the policies were effective in significantly reducing mortality. In an effort to understand the potential benefits of reducing pollution levels in India, we investigate the association of different pollution types with mortality. This analysis relies upon relatively recent satellite data on PM_2.5 levels in India. We examine this relationship for India for the first time, using a fixed effects model in an attempt to address issues of endogeneity and measurement error. We find that PM_2.5 levels are positively associated with mortality, with a 10% increase in pollution conditionally associated with a 2.0% increase in the mortality rate.     

Birthplace migration in India: 1961, 1971

Available aggregate data on migration based on the 1961 and 1971 Indian censuses are analyzed and compared in an attempt to identify changes in the magnitudes of the various migration propensities. Migratory movements are classified according to sex, distance of move, and rural or urban area of origin and destination.     

Territorial problems relating to the structure of employment in terms of sex

Future development plans in Russia should take into account the fact that the employment opportunities which exist in a specific geographical area will exert an influence on the sex ratios in the population of that area, and the sex ratios, in turn, will affect reproductive capacity of that population. When development schemes, in a particular region, create a demand primarily for a type of labor traditionally associated with only one sex, the demographic structure will adjust to this demand. For example, in Kameshkovo, light industry predominates and generally women fulfill the labor requirements in this type of enterprise. The labor demand for women has resulted in a disproportionate sex ratio in the community; there are 154 women/100 men. Sometimes the demographic structure will resist the pressures created by the labor demands and individuals will, instead of migrating, seek employment in fields traditionally associated with the opposite sex. In cities located in the Vladimir and Ivanovo regions textile industries, traditionally associated with a female labor force, predominant, and these textile industries employ a higher proportion of men than textile industries located in other regions. In areas where heavy industry predominates, the number of men employed exceeds the number of employed women, and wages are high enough so that only one spouse must work; women may then devote more time to family matters and this is reflected in the higher birth rates associated with these areas. In areas where light industry predominates, more women are employed and wages are lower. Generally both spouses must work and as a result birth rates are lower. Future development plans should attempt to create an equal demand for the labor of both sexes. Ideal sex ratios for the population and for the labor force were calculated. Tables depict 1) % of employed workers by sex for selected cities and industries; 2) proportion of women employed, birth rate, and natural increases by territorial units; 3) sex ratios in the labor force and the population by type of industry for 7 regions; and 4) size of city by sex ratio.     

Population and development in Southeast Asia: a fertility model

The author presents a selective survey of the literature on the relations between population and development in Southeast Asia and develops a model of fertility behavior in an attempt to clarify some apparently conflicting research findings concerning the region. Factors including income and education, the value of children and child mortality, labor force participation, and internal migration are examined in relation to fertility     

中国的女孩生存:历史、现状和展望

基于已有的数据、研究成果及中国政府和社会的干预实践,对有关改善中国女孩生存的研究和实践进行回顾式的评述和展望。中国一直存在对女性的歧视,近年来中国持续升高的出生性别比和偏高的女孩死亡水平,反映出女性社会地位低下和女孩生存风险恶化。对女孩的歧视包括出生前和出生后的歧视。描述了中国高出生性别比和偏高女孩死亡水平的水平、趋势和区域差异,分析了女孩生存环境恶化的直接和间接原因及其引发的人口和社会后果。通过比较国际社会的经验和中国政府及社会的认识与行动,讨论了改善中国女孩生存的前景及相应的措施。     

二十世纪中国育龄人群男女性相对死亡风险的两次显著变化

利用我国1930—2000年不同时期的生命表资料,分析了20世纪30年代以来我国育龄人群男女性相对死亡风险的变化,探讨了我国生殖健康政策在变化中的作用。20世纪我国育龄人群男女性相对死亡风险有两次显著变化。第一次显著变化是在育龄人群死亡风险处在较高水平上发生的。在上个世纪50年代之前,育龄女性的死亡风险高于育龄男性,到50年代育龄女性死亡风险从高于育龄男性向低于育龄男性转变。第二次显著变化是在育龄人群死亡风险已下降到一个相对较低的水平上发生的。从上个世纪70年代开始到上个世纪末,育龄女性死亡风险的下降速度显著高于育龄男性,随着时间的推移育龄人群死亡水平的性别差异呈现扩大趋势。     

Selective Mortality and Malnutrition in India

India presents itself as a paradox with low infant mortality and high malnutrition. This paper provides survival bias as an explanation of the paradox. Using pooled health surveys from 1993 to 2005 and a pseudo-panel selection model, this study finds that the change in Height-for-Age Z-Scores (HAZ scores) can be explained by mortality selection. Specifically, children with sample average characteristics that survive have 17.4% less HAZ scores than a child randomly drawn from the population indicating an overestimation of malnutrition in India. This is consistent with the hypothesis of weaker children surviving due to skilled delivery which pulls down the overall HAZ scores. The results are robust to controls for unobservable characteristics of groups of women. Son preference is also apparent in the results. The selection is more evident among male children and in the states where sex selection is historically seen as a problem in India.

     

Symmetry-breaking in two-player games via strategic substitutes and diagonal nonconcavity: A synthesis

This paper is an attempt to develop a unified approach to symmetry-breaking in strategic models arising in industrial organization by constructing two general classes of two-player symmetric games that always possess only asymmetric pure-strategy Nash equilibria. These classes of games are characterized in some abstract sense by two general properties: payoff nonconcavities and some form of strategic substitutability. Our framework relies on easily verified assumptions on the primitives of the game, and relies on the theory of supermodular games. The underlying natural assumptions are satisfied in a number of two-stage models with an investment decision preceding product market competition. To illustrate the generality and wide scope for application of our approach, we present some existing models dealing with R&D, capacity expansion and information provision, which motivated this study.