Genetic improvements in major US crops: the size and distribution of benefits

The distribution of welfare gains of genetic improvements in major US crops is estimated using a world agricultural trade model. Multi-market welfare estimates were 75% larger than estimates based on the price-exogenous 'change in revenue' method frequently used by plant breeders. Annual benefits of these genetic improvements range from US$ 400–600 million depending on the supply shift specification. Of this, 44–60% accrues to the US, 24–34% accrues to other developed countries. Developing and transitional economies capture 16–22% of the welfare gain. The global benefits of a one-time permanent increase in US yields are US$ 8.1 billion (discounted at 10%) and US$ 15.4 billion (discounted at 5%). Gains to consumers in developing and transitional economies range from US$ 6.1 billion (10% discount rate) to US$ 11.6 billion (5% discount rate).     

Consumption effects of genetic modification: what if consumers are right?⋆

This paper develops a model of differentiated consumers to examine the consumption effects of genetic modification (GM) under alternative labelling regimes and segregation enforcement scenarios. Analytical results show that if consumers perceive GM products as being different than their traditional counterparts, GM affects consumer welfare and, thus, consumption decisions. When the existence of market imperfections in one or more stages of the supply chain prevents the transmission of cost savings associated with the new technology to consumers, GM results in welfare losses for consumers. The analysis shows that the relative welfare ranking of the ‘no labelling’ and ‘mandatory labelling’ regimes depends on: (i) the level of consumer aversion to GM products; (ii) the size of marketing and segregation costs under mandatory labelling; (iii) the share of the GM product in total production; and (iv) the extent to which GM products are incorrectly labelled as non‐GM products.     

Economic Effects of the Consumer‐oriented Genetically Modified Products in Markets with a Labelling Regime

This paper builds on the literature on the economic effects of the second‐generation, consumer‐oriented genetically modified products (GMPs). It analyses the market and welfare impacts of the introduction of these new products in markets, like the EU, that mandate the segregation and labelling of the first‐generation, producer‐oriented GMPs. Developing an empirically relevant model of heterogeneous consumers and producers, the study determines the effects of the consumer‐oriented GMPs on the markets of conventional, GM and organic products, and the welfare of consumers and agricultural producers. Analytical results indicate that the market effects of the new GMPs are case specific and depend on: (i) the consumer valuation of the quality‐enhancing attribute of the new GMP; (ii) the level of consumer aversion to GMOs; (iii) the strength of consumer preference for organic products; and (iv) the production costs and marketing margins in the different supply channels. The policy on the labelling of the first‐generation GMPs does not affect the impacts of the second‐generation GMPs on the quantities and market shares of the different products. However, it does affect their price effects and welfare implications. The introduction of consumer‐oriented GMPs under a mandatory labelling regime can result in losses for some GM consumers and all producers of the conventional product.     

The Social Welfare Loss from Egg and Poultry Marketing Boards, Revisited

Continuing conflict over supply management warrants another look at its costs. The authors' model combines the traditional welfare triangle with the social welfare loss created when farmers bear the investment risk associated with possible termination of quota protection. The annual net social welfare loss from egg and poultry marketing boards likely exceeds $100 million, with consumers losing more than $500 million. Half the net social welfare loss is the cost of risk bearing. Quota prices imply that farmers expect quota lives to be relatively short. Therefore, changing to short fixed terms might halve the social welfare loss without imposing capital losses on farmers and might facilitate a return to a free market or auctioning new fixed term quotas.     

Assessing Consumer and Producer Preferences for Animal Welfare Using a Common Elicitation Format

We assess pig farmers’ willingness‐to‐accept (WTA) higher farm animal welfare (FAW) standards and consumers’ willingness‐to‐pay (WTP) for thus enhanced standards. The analysis is based on discrete choice experiments with nearly identical choice sets for both farmers (N=140) and consumers (N=554). Based on preference estimates from a random parameter logit (RPL) model, supply and demand curves for high‐welfare pork in Germany are estimated and market equilibria are derived for alternative levels of FAW. We find that estimates of consumer WTP are significantly positive for all FAW attributes: consumers value more surface space per pig, more bedding and manipulable material, less surgical interventions and shorter transportation times. In contrast, our model revealed significant producer WTA estimates only for surface area per pig and the amount of bedding material on offer, but not for the other FAW attributes. Farmers who expect to continue farming and engage in direct marketing are more likely to adopt higher FAW standards. Male consumers and those who find price more important than brand, origin or taste are less likely to buy high‐welfare pork, as are consumers who never purchase organic meat products. Market simulations for high‐welfare pork indicate increasing divergence between demand and supply with rising FAW standards. We estimate a market share of 44.6% for pork produced in compliance with an entry‐level FAW programme with standards only slightly above the legal minimum. Programmes with more demanding standards are estimated to gain much smaller market shares.     

Social welfare effects of removing multiple exchange rates: evidence from the rice trade in Iran

In order to encourage the involvement of the private sector in importing rice, the Iranian government plans to relax the system of multiple foreign exchange rates applied to importers wishing to supply the domestic market. In this article, the welfare effects of removing the current controls on the rice trade, and a domestic rice coupon program, are evaluated by applying a partial equilibrium analysis to 1961–1999 data. The results show that, as far as foreign exchange is concerned, liberalization of the rice market causes an increase in rice imports, mainly due to a decrease in domestic supply. In welfare terms, the loss in producer surplus from rice market liberalization is relatively high, but most rice consumers, and the Iranian taxpayer, would gain. Overall, gains to consumers and taxpayers are estimated to be higher than the losses incurred by domestic suppliers, and therefore net social welfare at national level can be improved by rice market liberalization in Iran. Issues for further discussion include residual food security roles for the state, and supply‐side adjustments in terms of resource use and higher‐quality production.     

The estimated ex ante economic impact of Bt cowpea in Niger,Benin and Northern Nigeria

Genetically modified (GM) crops could increase economic growth and enhance living standards in Africa, but political issues have slowed the use of biotechnology. This is the first study that assesses the potential impact of GM crops in Africa while considering the preferences of producers and consumers towards GMOs as well as the income and price risks they face. The study uses a choice experiment to estimate the ex ante economic impact of a novel technology, Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cowpea, on producers and consumers in Benin, Niger and northern Nigeria. The experiment involves the simulation of a market transaction similar to those in open air markets in West Africa. During the market simulation, respondents are informed about the advantages and disadvantages, including health risks, of Bt cowpea. The results from the study suggest that cowpea growers and consumers in Benin and northern Nigeria prefer Bt to conventional cowpea for health safety reasons. The results estimate that social welfare in Benin, Niger and northern Nigeria would increase by at least US$11.82 per capita annually with Bt cowpea, if seed sectors are operating smoothly. With inefficiencies in seed sectors and the potential for cowpea acreage increase, the estimated social welfare increase in the region would be about US$1.26 per capita annually.     

Consumers' Preferences for Nanotechnology in Food Packaging: A Discrete Choice Experiment

We examine consumers' preferences for chickens under different levels of foodborne health risk, animal welfare and pric attributes. We analyse how their preferences vary according to the risk reduction method. Our comparison is between risk reductions achieved by conventional improvements in the meat supply chain system (e.g. more stringent regulations and inspection regimes), and risk reductions achieved by food packaging nanosensors. Our comparison uses a two‐treatment discrete choice experiment in which each treatment sample is only presented with one of the risk reductions: either nanotechnology or conventional methods. We also investigate heterogeneity in preferences for two consumer groups: (i) consumers who usually buy conventional raw, whole chickens, and (ii) consumers who usually buy niche, welfare‐improved chickens, such as free‐range and organic. Our results show evidence of heterogeneity in preferences and willingness‐ to‐pay values of the both consumer groups. We find that consumers, on average, prefer raw, whole chicken with a lower risk of food poisoning, better animal welfare, and lower costs, regardless of the presence of nanosensors. Although consumers in general showed no strong preferences towards or resistance to nanotechnology, those who buy chickens with better animal welfare, on average, showed higher WTP for food risk reduction and animal welfare relative to conventional chicken consumers.     

A latent class approach to investigating demand for genetically modified banana in Uganda

This study explores consumer acceptance and valuation of a genetically modified (GM) staple food crop in a developing country prior to its commercialization. We focus on the hypothetical introduction of a disease‐resistant GM banana variety in Uganda, where bananas are among the most important staple crops. A choice experiment is used to investigate consumer preferences for various attributes related to the banana (such as bunch size, technology, producer benefit, and price) and examine their opinions on GM foodstuff. Choice data come from 421 banana‐consuming households randomly selected from three regions of Uganda. A latent class model is used to investigate the heterogeneity in consumers’ preferences for selected attributes related to the banana and to profile consumers who are more or less likely to accept GM bananas. Our results reveal that there is significant heterogeneity in consumer preferences across our sample. GM bananas are valued the most by poorer households located in the rural areas of the Eastern region. These food‐insecure households would experience the highest benefits (i.e., welfare gains) from the commercial release of GM bananas. In contrast, urban consumers are less accepting of GM bananas, and they would experience significant welfare losses if GM banana is released. According to our welfare estimates, both the total welfare benefits acquired by the gainers and the total welfare losses borne by the losers of this technology are significant and large. These results suggest the need for further investigation of the overall welfare effects of the introduction of GM bananas on the Ugandan society as a whole.     

WELFARE IMPLICATIONS OF MORE ACCURATE RATIONAL FORECAST PRICES

Models are constructed to assess the welfare effects for producers, consumers and society of producers using forecast prices based on more accurate estimates of variables causing shifts in the demand for and supply of commodities. The basic model is a stochastic cobweb model in which producers' forecast price is the rational forecast price. The model is extended for many commodities, for partial producer response to more accurate forecast prices, and to include stock holding. In terms of economic surplus, producers and consumers gain from more accurate estimates of demand shift variables, producers gain and consumers lose from more accurate estimates of supply shift variables, and in both cases there is a net society gain.     

Economic welfare analysis of policy-induced structural change in the Indonesian poultry industry

The performance of the poultry industry in Indonesia is analyzed in terms of changes in producer and consumer welfare as a result of public policy intended to limit the size of production units in order to distribute growth opportunities to smallet farms. Elasticities of supply and demand are estimated using the seemingly unrelated system of equations. The hypothesis of a policy-induced structural change, estimated through a dummy variable accounting for a shift in supply associated with implementation of the policy, shows a negative impact on the output supplied and the welfare of producers and consumers to the tune of about Rp 94 billion or roughly about 0.1% of national income as of 1983. The study suggests an important trade-off between more equitable income distribution and economic efficiency.     

A model of the U.S. food system: What are the determinants of the state vulnerabilities to production shocks and supply chain disruptions?

We adapt a Ricardian general equilibrium model to the setting of U.S. domestic agri-food trade to assess states’ vulnerability to adverse production shocks and supply chain disruptions. To this end, we analyze how domestic crop supply chains depend on fundamental state-level comparative advantages—which reflect underlying differences in states’ cost-adjusted productivity levels—and thereby illustrate the capacity of states to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of such disruptions to the U.S. agricultural sector. Based on the theoretical framework and our estimates of the model's structural parameters obtained using data on U.S. production, consumption, and domestic trade in crops, we undertake simulations to characterize the welfare implications of counterfactual scenarios depicting disruptions to (1) states’ agricultural productive capacity, and (2) interstate supply linkages. Our results emphasize that the distributional impacts of domestic supply chain disruptions hinge on individual states’ agricultural productive capacities, and that the ability of states to mitigate the impacts of adverse production shocks through trade relies on the degree to which states are able to substitute local production shortfalls by sourcing crops from other states.     

The Potential Impact of Tobacco Biopharming: The Case of Human Serum Albumin

Biopharming stands to significantly expand the uses of many agricultural crops. This article examines the potential size and distribution of welfare gains from biopharming transgenic tobacco as a source of human serum albumin (HSA) using an economic surplus model under imperfect competition. The results suggest that HSA from transgenic tobacco will generate annual profits for the innovating firm of between $25 million and $49 million. On the other hand, consumers are unlikely to benefit during the patent life of the product given the innovator's market power.     

A supply‐side analysis of agritourism: Evidence from farm‐level agriculture census data in Taiwan

Due to consumers’ increased demand for leisure and farmers’ need for income diversification, researchers and policymakers have significant interest in topics related to agritourism. This study provides a supply‐side analysis on agritourism using Taiwan as a case study. Utilising a sample of 720,148 family farms from the 2010 agriculture census survey in Taiwan, we quantify the effects of engaging in the agritourism business on farm income, on farm succession, and on family members’ labour supply decisions between on‐farm and off‐farm work. An analytical framework that combines the doubly robustness regression model and semiparametric estimation is proposed to address the endogeneity bias. Results indicate that participation in agritourism increases farm income and family farm succession. Farms engaging in agritourism also have more family members working on the farm, and fewer family members working off‐farm, compared to farms not engaging in agritourism. Although agritourism enterprises are developed to meet consumers’ demand for leisure, our results show that they also improve the economic welfare of farm households.     

Fertilizer in Indonesian Agriculture: the Subsidy Issue

Indonesia began subsidizing fertilizer in 1971 to encourage its use as a complement to the new, high-yielding rice varieties that were becoming available. While providing considerable assistance to encouraging farmers to utilize these new HYVs and the associated package of inputs, the subsidy for fertilizer has attracted considerable attention in the light of the increasing budget limitations in Indonesia. The high levels of fertilizer and HYV use, the rapidly changing elasticities and cross elasticities among the major food crops, and the growing intersectoral linkages in the Indonesian economy suggest reasons for re-assessment of the subsidy for fertilizer. The operation of the subsidy is explained, followed by a discussion of changes in the relevant elasticities for demand and supply of commodities and fertilizer. A static welfare analysis of the fertilizer subsidy is presented, showing that the economic subsidy is worth only 42% of the financial subsidy and that farmers are receiving only 7% of the financial subsidy. A simulation of the effects on the food crop sector of removing the subsidy follows the welfare analysis. The paper concludes with an exploration of the policy issues stemming from the results.     

A cost-benefit analysis of a public labelling scheme of fish quality

The purpose of this paper is to introduce a new method capable of evaluating the economic welfare for quality graded fish products using the hedonic price method for plaice in Denmark. Today, no labelling scheme exists for the final consumers of different qualities of fish. A scheme only exists at the first hand market. On this basis, a general applicable, theoretical and empirical method is developed to compare the costs and benefits of the hypothetical choice between the total absence of labelling and the presence of a public labelling scheme, which fully informs consumers on the quality and simultaneously allows the producers to differentiate prices between quality grades. It is shown that the economic welfare associated with a public labelling scheme is at minimum €263,000. Sensitivity analysis shows that this result is robust. The policy implication is that a public labelling scheme should not be implemented as the demand and cost functions have low elasticities, implying that the welfare gain is low.     

Consumer willingness to pay for chicken welfare attributes in Kenya

Abstract

This study provides new insights on consumer preferences for chicken welfare attributes in a developing country context. Further, the inclusion of chicken transportation methods as an attribute is a useful contribution to empirical literature. Choice experiment survey data from 200 chicken consumers in Kenya were analyzed using random parameter logit model. Consumers had a positive preference for use of certified transportation, humanely slaughtered chicken and welfare labeling. However, there was a negative preference for using antibiotics in chicken production. Relative to the current price of chicken meat, consumers were willing to pay a premium of 30% for use of certified transport, 72% for animal welfare labeling, 135% for humane slaughter, 236% for nonuse of growth hormones and 40% less for chicken reared in confined systems.     

Activists and Animal Welfare: Quality Verifications in the Canadian Pork Sector

Animal welfare is an emotive topic. Although most governments legislate against outright animal cruelty, animal welfare organisations have actively lobbied for more stringent farm animal welfare regulations. Food retailers and restaurant chains have faced pressure from animal welfare organisations to implement more stringent animal welfare requirements for their suppliers. Is the demand for more stringent farm animal welfare protocols primarily determined by a subset of consumers with very strong preferences or does it signal a more fundamental underlying change in societal preferences? Given the credence nature of farm animal welfare, whom do consumers trust for credible quality assurances? This article analyses the role of quality verification in a market characterised by consumers with heterogeneous preferences for animal welfare. Of particular interest are the relative strength of preferences for humane animal treatment assurances and the credibility of these quality claims. Using data from a Canadian survey targeted at two distinct samples – a general population group and members of animal welfare organisations – a discrete choice experiment is used to assess consumer attitudes towards animal welfare assurances for pork products. The credibility of quality verification by public sector, private sector and third party agents is assessed. Evidence confirms that consumer preferences for farm animal welfare assurance and the source of verification are indeed heterogeneous. Although a portion of consumers remain largely indifferent to pork products with animal welfare assurances, a group of highly motivated consumers exist with an economic incentive to lobby for tougher animal welfare standards.     

Multi-year assessment of Unilever's progress towards agricultural sustainability II: outcomes for peas (UK), spinach (Germany,Italy), tomatoes (Australia,Brazil, Greece,USA), tea (Kenya,Tanzania, India) and oil palm (Ghana)

The foods, home and personal care company, Unilever, is a large user of raw materials from agriculture, and a major buyer of goods on world markets. The continued supply of these materials is seen as an important component in the business's long-term success. The company has a long history of seeking to farm responsibly on company farms and for directly contracted raw materials, but it became clear that an approach based solely on suppliers' good agricultural practice would not safeguard supplies where increasing social and environmental pressures on agriculture were growing, or where increasing consumer concerns about the food chain could undermine markets and brands. Both threats suggested the need for a more radical approach. This resulted in the development of a mission statement, the agreement of four principles for sustainable agriculture, the identification of ten sustainable agriculture indicators (later 11), and the selection of five key crops the sustainable supply of which was significant to the company.

This paper summarizes progress towards the sustainable supply of these crops by reporting on selected sustainability indicators for the crops (peas, spinach, tomatoes, tea and oil palm) in 11 countries. Some of the businesses using these products have been subsequently sold, but these are reported here because the aim is to explore how responsive are different indicators of sustainability to management action in different crops in widely differing locations. This paper focuses on a selection of findings for each of the 10 indicators, in order to illustrate the extent of changes that have been observed over time. These also indicate some of the difficulties faced in making improvements on the ground. The gathering of data on sustainability indicators is closely tied to the development of alternative practices that should quickly deliver improvements in a variety of outcomes. An assessment is also made of the key changes that have occurred for each of the main five crops as a result of adopting the sustainability indicator system and associated new management practices.

Multi-year assessments were conceived as the way to understand and demonstrate progress towards more sustainable agriculture. The important developments were of systems that combined ensuring that agricultural suppliers performed to an acceptable set of criteria, and then had the capacity and willingness to identify the most critical areas where further progress was required. The challenge for the company is now to encourage others to adopt their approach to making supply chains more sustainable, both for their customers and the consumers of their branded goods.     

Markets and welfare effects of food fraud

This study develops a theoretical framework of heterogeneous consumers and producers and imperfectly competitive food companies to analyse the system‐wide market and welfare effects of food fraud in the form of food adulteration and mislabelling. The results show that, while the price impacts of food fraud are product‐specific with the equilibrium prices of high‐quality and low‐quality products moving in different directions, the equilibrium quantities depend on the relative magnitude of the demand and supply effects of food fraud. Regarding the welfare effects of food fraud, they are shown to be highly asymmetric across different consumers and producers. In addition to enabling the disaggregation of the welfare effects of food fraud, the explicit consideration of agent heterogeneity, asymmetries in the probability of fraud detection and the endogeneity of the producer quality choices also enables the derivation of a key result of this study; contrary to what is traditionally believed, both low‐quality and high‐quality producers can have economic incentives to commit fraud. The group that is more likely to cheat is determined by the social attitudes towards fraudulent behaviour, the enforcement policy parameters and the relative magnitude of the demand and supply effects of food fraud. A comparison of the market effects of mislabelling and food adulteration reveals that, while the equilibrium quantity of the high‐quality product is higher in the presence of mislabelling, producers are more likely to mislabel than adulterate their products.