High rural population density Africa – What are the growth requirements and who participates?

A large and increasing proportion of agricultural growth in Africa must come from continuous gains in land productivity in areas of high population density and hence with already relatively high yields. What that requires is analogous to the green revolution in Asia. Several features differentiate the African situation. Those include greater diversity in cropping pattern including a historically larger and more widespread tropical commodity export sector. The physical infrastructure in rural Africa is far inferior to that of most Asian countries. While the greater diversity of agriculture calls for a larger and more diverse institutional structure the reality is that the research systems, the ancillary education systems to spread innovation and the rural financial systems are generally greatly inferior to those of Asia at the beginning of the green revolution. Ethiopia’s record of a steady six to seven percent growth for agriculture and nearly halving of rural poverty demonstrates that with the right policies and investments a very poor country starting with poor physical and institutional infrastructure can bring a major contribution from agriculture growth to increased GDP and reduced poverty. As in Asia, the bulk of accelerated agricultural growth will come from small commercial farmers. They have sufficient farm income to reach or exceed the poverty level. Those are farms with, depending on the country, as little as 0.75 hectares to a few tens of hectares of land. They comprise up to half the rural population and produce on the order of 70–80 percent of agricultural output. They are in general not poor. The poor have inadequate land to reach the poverty level, initially with much underemployment, and with substantial non-farm employment. The primary driver of poverty reduction is the small commercial farmer spending on the order of half of increased income on nontradable, employment intensive goods and services from the rural non-farm sector.     

Towards regional food security in southern Africa: a (new) policy framework for the agricultural sector

In the southern African Region (SAR) large populations, mainly concentrated in rural areas, face food insecurity and poverty. Food insecurity is intensified by adverse weather conditions and droughts which impact negatively on farm level food production throughout the region. Agriculture constitutes an important economic sector in the majority of countries in the region. This is measured as share of agricultural value added to the GDP and as agriculture's share in employment. Based on these facts alone, it must be obvious that sustained agricultural performance will play a significant role in the improvement of food security and livelihoods in the region. However, food security is not only attained in rural areas and by the consumption of home produced food stuffs. Urbanisation is expected to increase dramatically over the next few decades and feeding the urban masses, at affordable prices, must be considered to be a high future priority for governments in the region. Food security must not be viewed as an agricultural issue per se. The drive to food self sufficiency through domestic agriculture production in many countries in the region did not enable these countries to feed their own population. Food security should rather be defined as the acquirement of sufficient and nutritious quantities of food (Sen, 1981, Poverty and Famines: An essay on Entitlement and Deprivation). An approach, whereby attention is given to the macro level availability of food, access to income streams as well as improved production capacity to acquire food at a household level and the utilisation of nutritious food, should therefore be guiding food security policies (SADC: FSTAU, 1997, A Strategic Framework for Food Security in the Region). This broader view emphasises household level poverty reduction, economic development and growth as important components of a food security strategy (World Food Summit, Rome, 1996). An important issue which therefore needs to be explored is whether agriculture does have the potential to contribute to economic processes, which will support broad based development and food security. This paper is intended to argue the importance of agricultural development for food security in the region and to develop a diverse policy framework to strengthen this new, more comprehensive role of agriculture in the region.     

What is the irrigation potential for Africa? A combined biophysical and socioeconomic approach

Although irrigation in Africa has the potential to boost agricultural productivities by at least 50%, food production on the continent is almost entirely rainfed. The area equipped for irrigation, currently slightly more than 13 million hectares, makes up just 6% of the total cultivated area. More than 70% of Africa’s poor live in rural areas and mostly depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. As a result, agricultural development is key to ending poverty on the continent. Many development organizations have recently proposed to significantly increase investments in irrigation in the region. However, the potential for irrigation investments in Africa is highly dependent upon geographic, hydrologic, agronomic, and economic factors that need to be taken into account when assessing the long-term viability and sustainability of planned projects. This paper analyzes the large, dam-based and small-scale irrigation investment potential in Africa based on agronomic, hydrologic, and economic factors. We find significant profitable irrigation potential for both small-scale and large-scale systems. This type of regional analysis can guide distribution of investment funds across countries and should be a first step prior to in-depth country- and local-level assessment of irrigation potential, which will be important to agricultural and economic development in Africa.     

Economic and agricultural development in West Asia and North Africa : The need for agricultural research

This paper analyses the role of agriculture in the economic development of West Asia and North Africa, with special reference to the interactions between oil wealth, population growth, agricultural development and the need for agricultural research. Since the 1960s agricultural supply lagged behind demand, which grew rapidly as a result of population increases and rising incomes. Following the oil recession of the 1980s it was felt that the development of the agricultural sector should be less dependent on other sectors, particularly oil. The possible roles of agriculture in the region's future economic development are outlined, with the implications for agricultural research. Special attention is given to the natural resource constraints affecting the region's agriculture (particularly water), and to the issues influencing the identification of research priorities.     

Alternatives for Danish agriculture

In the years prior to Denmark's entry into the European Common Market (EEC) in 1973, Danish agricultural exports began to encounter difficulties. As exports account for about two thirds of production in the sector, total agricultural production also stagnated in the 1960s and early 1970s. Entry into the EEC was expected to result in an increase in agricultural production; the increase has, however, failed to materialize.The fact that agricultural production has not increased in the years following entry into the EEC is due to a complex interaction of factors. One explanation is a fall in the number of agricultural holdings which has led to a considerable reduction in the productive capacity of the sector. The relatively high level of interest and costs has also had a dampening impact on the investment propensity. However, in 1977 and 1978 there has been a trend towards an increase in investment in livestock production which indicates an increase in total agricultural production for the years to come.An important part of the Danish economy is the integration of the agricultural sector with the large food processing industry.¹ The links between agriculture and other sectors are rising. The purchase of raw materials and means of production, plus the depreciation of machinery and building requirements, now account for up to 60% of the total agricultural production in terms of value. There is consequently a strong general interest in the future development of Danish agriculture. The recent international recession has also furthered an increased political interest in the exploitation of agriculture. Agricultural policy is thus tending towards a more central importance in the general and the specific economic policies.The central elements of the current discussion have been the volume of the production potential of Danish agriculture, and the market potential existing in the years to come. These considerations are discussed below, on the basis of both historical trends and of a study recently published on alternative development possibilities for Danish agriculture.²     

Technology adoption and value chains in developing countries: Evidence from dairy in India

Adoption of modern technologies in agriculture is crucial for improving productivity and welfare of poor farmers in developing countries. Not much is known about how value chains do (not) affect technology transfer and/or adoption in food chains in developing countries. We analyze farm-level technology adoption in the dairy chain in India, using unique survey data. The dairy chain in India is an important case because the Indian government has promoted development of the dairy sector for its potential for ‘pro-poor’ growth, and because value chain initiatives had strong effects on dairy farm technology in other countries with imperfect markets and growth in demand. We find that despite rapid growth in milk consumption and production, technology adoption in the form of better hygienic practices, better feed and improved livestock was mixed, and low for certain regions and technologies. So far, the role of value chains in the adoption of new technologies seems to be minor.     

Viewpoint

Enterprises set up to process agricultural materials into foods sought by consumers can bring a range of benefits They help meet the growing and changing food demands of urban consumers They may reduce expenditure of scarce foreign exchange on imports for consumption They provide an incentive to domestic agriculture to expand and intensify its output Where they provide production guidance and necessary credit inputs, reducing risks by ensuring a specific market under contract, they can be a strategic instrument for the introduction of new agricultural technology Both by their direct contribution to the raising of famers' incomes, and the additional employment they provide in agriculture, the processing operation, and associated services, they are a potent force for rural development.     

Labor productivity and employment gaps in Sub-Saharan Africa

Drawing on a new set of nationally representative, internationally comparable household surveys, this paper provides an overview of key features of structural transformation – labor allocation and labor productivity – in four African economies. New, micro-based measures of sector labor allocation and cross-sector productivity differentials describe the incentives households face when allocating their labor. These measures are similar to national accounts-based measures that are typically used to characterize structural change. However, because agricultural workers supply far fewer hours of labor per year than do workers in other sectors in all of the countries analyzed, productivity gaps shrink by half, on average, when expressed on a per-hour basis. Underlying the productivity gaps that are prominently reflected in national accounts data are large employment gaps, which call into question the productivity gains that laborers can achieve through structural transformation. Furthermore, agriculture’s continued relevance to structural change in Sub-Saharan Africa is highlighted by the strong linkages observed between rural non-farm activities and primary agricultural production.     

Adaptation to land constraints: Is Africa different?

Since the seminal works of Malthus and Boserup, scientists have long debated the impact of population growth and land constraints on the wellbeing of rural people. Today these concerns are particularly relevant to Africa, with its rapid population growth, very small farms, and chronic food insecurity. In this paper we examine adaptation to falling land-labor ratios using a comprehensive theoretical framework in which households faced with binding land constraints can respond in three ways: intensifying agricultural production, diversifying out of agriculture, and reducing fertility rates. Using cross-country data and drawing upon the existing literature, we reach three conclusions. First, population density is associated with reduced fallows and more intensive use of land but not fertilizer use or irrigation, indicating major challenges in achieving sustainable intensification or agricultural productivity growth. Second, there is little evidence of successful non-farm diversification in response to land pressures in Africa from domestic or international income sources. Third, rural Africans in land constrained countries desire smaller families, but have thus far benefited little from family planning policies. These findings underscore the need for a coordinated multi-sectoral approach to sustainably reduce poverty in the region.     

培养农村实用型人才，扩大农村劳动力就业

农民脱贫致富的长效机制在于提高农村劳动力就业竞争力,并通过政策措施扩大农村劳动力就业规模。因此要大力培养农村实用型人才,提高自身素质;建立城乡统筹就业机制,促进农村劳动力在城乡、区域间的有序流动和合理配置;规范劳务服务管理,提高农村劳动力就业组织化程度;加强信息化建设,完善农村劳动力供求信息系统;打造劳务输出品牌,建设农村劳动力转移和输出的绿色通道;加强政策激励,引导农民工自主创业。     

Examining linkages between Smart Villages and Smart Cities: Learning from rural youth accessing the internet in India

The literature on Smart Cities has not as yet paid adequate attention to the rural sector, and the potential in villages for creating smart and sustainable solutions for the 21st century. This paper focuses on linking proposed smart city strategies to smart village policies to ensure that rural youth have improved opportunities for employment through ICT initiatives to ensure digital inclusion, using primary surveys undertaken in India. The motivation was to understand how mobile telephony could be a catalyst to create Smart Villages in India, where young people can chart out new pathways to realize their aspirations with regard to tertiary education and new avenues for diversifying into rural non-agricultural employment. We use data obtained from a household survey in villages in the states of Punjab and Tamil Nadu to examine the mobile phone usage preferences of rural educated youth to identify the way forward in improving the accessibility of services on the supply side. We make the case that where youth are using mobile phone access to increase their social information base it is indeed possible that the new social media groups formed by rural youth become a powerful conduit for generating new employment opportunities. The key to accessing this solution is to use a demand driven model for mobile services that would permit a bottom of governance model to generate sustainable growth of enterprises and improved human development of these villages.     

REDD policy impacts on the agri-food sector and food security

Recent research shows that the combined contributions of deforestation, forest degradation and peat land emissions account for about 15% of greenhouse gas emissions. The REDD policy which preserves forests and values standing forests, enables substantial emission reductions. Since agricultural production and area expansion is a primary driver of tropical deforestation, REDD policies might limit the expansion possibilities of agricultural land use and therefore influence competitiveness of the agricultural sector, agricultural prices, trade patterns, agricultural production and therefore food security in the world. This paper studies the impact of REDD policies on the agri-food sector and food security with a global CGE model called MAGNET using a scenario approach. It focuses on the restrictions on agricultural land expansion within the REDD policy package. Simulation results show that REDD policies start to affect the agri-food sector in some lower developed countries if more than 15% of potentially available agricultural areas are protected from deforestation. A stringent REDD policy that protects 90% of land reserves that could potentially be used for agriculture production results in a global real agricultural price increase of almost 7.6%, and a worldwide agricultural production decrease of 1.7%. Regional differences are large, with real agricultural price changes ranging from 4% in North America to about 24% in Sub-Saharan Africa and South-East Asia. Food access rapidly deteriorates for low-income population in these regions in the case of high forest protection levels. Compensatory payments are necessary from a food security point of view if the level of forest protection increases. Our results indicate that from a food security perspective REDD policy should stop short of trying to protect more than 40% of global carbon if the compensation mechanism is not effectively implemented within REDD.     

Policies to promote cereal intensification in Ethiopia: The search for appropriate public and private roles

Over the past decade, policymakers have been searching for an appropriate blend of public and private sector roles to accelerate the intensification of food staple production, smallholder commercialization, and sustainable market development in sub-Saharan Africa. In Ethiopia, steps taken to liberalize markets in the 1990s and promote fertilizer and seed packages have yet to generate payoffs in terms of higher cereal yields, lower food prices, or reduced dependency on food aid. This raises concern about the performance of the agricultural sector, specifically in terms of the systems for providing improved seed, fertilizer, credit, and extension services. This paper examines the evolving roles of the public and private sectors in intensifying cereal production in Ethiopia. Findings suggest that while Ethiopia has an admirable record of supporting agriculture, its state-led policies has now outlived their usefulness. These findings for Ethiopia offer lessons that are potentially applicable to other sub-Saharan African countries facing similar challenges.     

Pro-poor agricultural biotechnology: Can the international research system deliver the goods?

While global investment in agricultural research by the private sector is increasing with growth in developing country markets and the emergence of new technologies, complementary public sector investment is stagnating or declining in many developing countries. This review argues that the changing roles of the public and private sectors in generating new scientific knowledge may adversely affect the diffusion of explicitly pro-poor technologies—technologies that are simultaneously yield-enhancing and poverty-reducing. Comparing historical evidence from the Green Revolution with recent evidence from the emerging era of agricultural biotechnology, this review argues that a more pluralistic international system for agricultural research will be more responsive to poverty only if the strategic leadership role of the public sector is strengthened, certain research functions are reallocated to the private sector, and new policy and organizational mechanisms are used to stimulate pro-poor research in and for developing-country agriculture.     

Seasonal rural labor markets and their relevance to policy analyses in developing countries

Seasonality is a salient feature of rural livelihoods and particularly within agriculture the demand for labor varies with the seasons and weather. In low-income countries, agriculture employs almost two-thirds of the labor force and incomes from labor are a major determinant of welfare. Therefore, an appropriate model representation of rural labor markets is critical when analyzing agricultural and food policies. Economy-wide models are commonly used for ex-ante policy analysis, but have so far ignored the influence of seasonality, implicitly assuming separability of seasonal labor demand and supply. This study relaxes that assumption using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model calibrated to the Bhutanese economy as an illustrative case. Using model setups with and without seasonal labor markets, a cereal export ban of India is simulated leading to higher import prices for Bhutan. Results demonstrate that neglecting the influence of seasons on rural labor markets systematically biases model results. Assuming homogeneity of labor units, i.e., allowing substitution across seasons, understates the impacts of policy changes on rural wage rates, distorts households' labor-leisure trade-off decisions and overstates agricultural supply response. Given the widespread use of economy-wide models, the results are important for understanding the implications of domestic and global policy changes for agriculture and welfare in developing economies.     

Challenging the food vs. fuel dilemma: Genealogical analysis of the biofuel discourse pursued by international organizations

This paper looks critically at how food and agriculture-, energy security-, and climate change-oriented international organizations have consolidated and modified the biofuel discourse in relation to the agricultural system. Using Foucault-based genealogical analysis of discursive formations, the paper traces the last 20 years of institutions’ biofuel debate in relation to rural production. We find that the prevalent motive is an aspiration to combine the agriculture and energy markets into one, which prompts structural changes and challenges in the rural sector. This has implications for the future role and shape of global agriculture and – contrary to the food vs. fuel perspective – calls for re-conceptualizing the biofuel debate as the food vs. food dilemma.     

Agriculture and economic development in the Caribbean

This article examines the role of agriculture in the economic development of the more developed Caribbean countries — Barbados, Guyana, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago. The agricultural sector's contribution to the economy has declined in the past two decades. As a result, the agricultural sector has not generated sufficient employment or foreign exchange earnings. This has meant that the industrial sector has not been able to sustain development.     

Food sovereignty and agricultural trade policy commitments: How much leeway do West African nations have?

The 2008 food crisis has challenged the political legitimacy and economic efficiency of the liberalization of international agricultural trade. An alternative vision defended by the food sovereignty movement is that long-term food security cannot rely on dependency on food imports, but must be built on the development of domestic production with enough barrier protection to shelter it from world price fluctuations and unfair trading.The purpose of this paper is to look into whether the West African nations can achieve food sovereignty given their various trade commitments and other external constraints. The particularity of our approach is to combine a historical economic analysis with a political approach to food sovereignty and trade commitments.Our results suggest that external brakes on the development of food sovereignty policies are marginal, as the countries still have unused room for manoeuvre to protect their smallholder agriculture under the terms of draft World Trade Organization agreements and Economic Partnership Agreements and under the international financial institutions’ recommendations. Rather the international environment seems to be instrumented by West African states that do not manage to secure a national political consensus to drive structural reforms deemed vital and further the food security of the urban populations over the marginalized rural populations. Recently, the regional integration process has made headway with a common agricultural support and protection policy project that could herald an internal political balance more conducive to food-producing agriculture.     

农业投入与农业增长的灰色关联分析

运用灰色系统理论建立关联分析模型,对中国1981年～2008年间农业增长及其影响因素：农作物播种面积、农业劳动力、政府财政支农、农业贷款、农机总动力以及化肥使用量等因素进行了定量分析,认为农业投资、农机总动力和化肥使用量是促进中国农业增长的关键性生产要素,并提出了加快我国农业机械化进程,加强政府财政支农投资力度等提高我国农业生产能力的政策建议。     

Supply chains and economic development: Insights from the Indian dairy sector

With almost three quarters of the labor force depending on agriculture in India, kick-starting agricultural growth is considered crucial for pro-poor development. More specifically, dairy production – which is labor-intensive but does not heavily rely on access to land – is generally expected to offer better prospects for income growth to the poorest among rural households. However, most policies aimed at increasing dairy production are based on ad hoc observations, with hardly any micro-level evidence. Using a unique primary dataset on 1000 rural households in Andhra Pradesh, this paper investigates the dairy production system, addressing three main research questions: First, we look at the typical profile of a dairy farmer and we find that both family traditions in dairy and owning (even a small piece of) land play a role in determining participation in dairy – while land size does not matter. Second, we show that dairy production is strongly and positively associated with improvement in rural livelihoods, in terms of income per capita, but that this positive relation only holds for larger dairy farms. In a third step, we look at the determinants of farm growth and we find that households having higher shares of graded dairy animals have grown more after 2005.