A challenge of integrating technology foresight and assessment in industrial strategy development and policymaking

Appropriate demand articulation of emerging technologies to social needs are vital to the economic and social productivity, and it is essential to grasp the future trends of social needs and technology advancement to promote the strategic technology policy. Japan embarked on technology foresight in the early 1970s and has since been conducting a regular Delphi survey approximately every 5 years. To explore a new intelligent methodology for integrating technological seeds and social needs by articulating future demands, this paper reviews the following two cases: the Delphi-scenario writing (DSW) method, which is applied in 1977 for the home/office small facsimile, and the method of general assessment applied in 1972 for informationalization, which focused on the rapidly advancing information society, with a matrix scoring and policy-simulation method. Those new approaches were proved to be a powerful methodology to integrate the technology forecasting and assessment for comprehensive understanding of the emerging technologies and their social impacts in the form of integrated technology road mapping, which supports the integrated strategic planning methodology for enhancing the future innovation system.     

Result-oriented and process-oriented evaluations of indicative planning

This paper comments on the methodology that Estrin and Holmes (Estrin, Saul, and Holmes, Peter, “Indicative Planning in Developed Economies.” J. Comp. Econom. 14, 4:000-000, 1990) employ to evaluate indicative planning in developed countries. An evaluation that focuses on results suffers from inevitable informational problems, thus necessitating an examination of the processes of indicative planning.     

IMPROVING U.S. TRANSMISSION EXPANSION POLICY THROUGH ORDER NO. 1000

This article examines the latest attempt of the United States' regulatory agency, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), to promote transmission expansion through the transmission planning and cost allocation principles contained in its recently issued Order No. 1000. It finds the level of detail contained in the order's cost allocation principles to be insufficient to achieve FERC's goals. It argues that the order does provide important principles for both transmission planning and expansion, though. It thus presents a cost allocation methodology which channels the order's strengths. Specifically, the methodology obtains an estimate of the benefits of a project and aligns the costs and benefits of the project accordingly. (JEL K23, Q48)     

Vacant technology forecasting using new Bayesian patent clustering

Vacant technology forecasting (VTF) is a technology forecasting approach to find technological needs for given industrial field in the future. It is important to know the future trend of developing technology for the R&D planning of a company and a country. In this paper, we propose a new Bayesian model for patent clustering. This is a VTF methodology based on patent data analysis. Our method is composed of Bayesian learning and ensemble method to construct the VTF model. To illustrate the practical way of the proposed methodology, we perform a case study of given technology domain using retrieved patent documents from patent databases in the world.     

土地利用规划信息系统系统分析与框架设计

软件框架是信息系统的基本构架，其规划设计在软件开发中占有重要地位。作为一种开发思路或模式，框架设计具有方法论和技术路线的指导意义，能为相关的开发设计人员提供借鉴和参考。文章首先分析了手工编制土地利用规划的基本特点，然后提出了一个土地利用规划信息系统的框架体系，并就其中的主要模块结构和功能进行了阐述。     

New venture planning: The role of technological forecasting

A system for the analysis and planning of new ventures is developed which provides a structure for the application of logical, mathematical, and scientific procedures to decision problems which (1) involve a significant portion of an organization's resources, (2) have long term effects on a firm's future success, and (3) are characterized by uncertainty in many of the factors important to the decision. The system is based on a synthesis of various analytical techniques from the fields of technological forecasting, decision analysis, and system dynamics, and provides a general methodology for rank-ordering new venture candidates and determining the resource allocation level required for new venture portfolios designed to achieve long term growth objectives. The role played by technological forecasting in new venture planning and in the selection of engineering projects is discussed.     

Participatory decision-making in land use planning: An application in Costa Rica

The economic, social and environmental implications of electricity generation for land use planning are a significant and complex problem in many countries. One reason for this complexity is the existence of several stakeholders with very different views or perceptions of the different criteria underlying the decision-making process. Therefore, the aggregation of individual stakeholder preferences into a single collective preference is a crucial problem. In this paper, this type of problem is addressed with the help of a methodology based upon the definition of a consensus within a distance-based framework. The methodology is applied to a case study in Costa Rica at two levels: at a national level and at a river basin level. The River Birrís was chosen because the conflict of interests between agricultural production and electricity generation are especially significant in this basin.     

A compared R&D-based and patent-based cross impact analysis for identifying relationships between technologies

The planning of technological research and development (R&D) is demanding in areas with many relationships between technologies. To support decision makers of a government organization with R&D planning in these areas, a methodology to make the technology impact more transparent is introduced. The method shows current technology impact and impact trends from the R&D of an organization's competitors and compares these to the technology impact and impact trends from the organization's own R&D. This way, relative strength, relative weakness, plus parity of the organization's R&D activities in technology pairs can be identified.A quantitative cross impact analysis (CIA) approach is used to estimate the impact across technologies. Our quantitative CIA approach contrasts to standard qualitative CIA approaches that estimate technology impact by means of literature surveys and expert interviews. In this paper, the impact is computed based on the R&D information regarding the respective organization on one hand, and based on patent data representative regarding R&D information of the organization's competitors on the other hand. As an illustration, the application field ‘defence’ is used, where many interrelations and interdependencies between defence-based technologies occur. Firstly, an R&D-based and patent-based Compared Cross Impact (CCI) among technologies is computed. Secondly, characteristics of the CCI are identified. Thirdly, the CCI data is presented as a network to show the overall structure and the complex relationships between the technologies. Finally, changes of the CCI are analyzed over time. The results show that the proposed methodology has the potential to generate useful insights for government organizations to help direct technology investments.     

我国城市群区战略规划的关键问题

城市化的发展带来了城市群的快速发展,城市群现象也越来越明显,但是其规划并没有受到相应的重视,并存在着诸如内部结构功能不完善、规划中对环境的重视不够,环境污染等问题.文章分析了城市群规划的重要意义、规划的原则和目标以及城市群规划的新思维新战略的若干关键问题(核心城市、网络发展、合理开发等),特别是在城市群区内的超大城市、核心城市应当建设一流的现代化城市,环境质量好的清洁型、服务型城市.以期能在规划界引起探讨,从而使城市群规划与城市群的发展日趋完善.     

Implementing technology roadmap process in the energy services sector: A case study of a government agency

Energy sector has become increasingly sensitive to emerging new technologies as our society is seeking alternative energy sources. Many utility companies and government agencies have started to implement technology planning processes for roadmapping their future technology portfolios. This paper focuses on technology planning in the government energy services sector. Through a case study research method, the paper documents how technology planning and specifically technology roadmaps were implemented at a federal agency tasked with managing power transmission in the Northwest United States. Three application areas are covered: transmission, renewables and energy efficiency. The paper provides details on the Energy Efficiency Roadmaps. Through the review of the case a technology planning methodology based on technology roadmaps is detailed. Key conclusions were reached on how to manage such process implementation in similar organizations. Some of these conclusions can be generalized to those that are implementing technology planning processes for the first time. We concluded that adoption of such methods would require a longer time than anticipated. Organizational changes to adopt the process will likely reduce the time it takes to deliver the required roadmaps. We also found that a typical sequence of events would be Technology Gap Analysis and Identification of Technology Candidates, Evaluation and Prioritization of Technologies, Roadmapping of Technologies and Allocation of Resources to the R&D Programs or to the direct acquisition of the technologies.     

Defining national property rights to a common property resource: The case of the West Bank aquifers

This article introduces a methodology to define Israeli and Palestinian property rights to the three aquifers straddling the Green Line between Israel and the West Bank, i.e. the Yarqon-Tanninim, Northern, and Nablus-Jenin aquifers. A set of procedures for determining a fair division of waters is described for the hypothetical planning year 2000. Following this, the calculated allocation of water rights is evaluated in terms of the projected over-all water consumption and supply balance for Israel and a Palestinian sovereign authority (PSA) for the year 2000. Finally, the article concludes with some thoughts on the relative merits of this methodology.     

Multiple generation product life cycle predictions using a novel two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis method

Product life cycle (PLC) prediction plays a crucial role in strategic planning and policy definition for high-technology products. Forecast methodologies which can predict PLCs accurately can help to achieve successful strategic decision-making, forecasting, and foresight activities in high-technology firms, research institutes, governments, and universities. Over the past few decades, even though analytic framework strategies have been proposed for production, marketing, R&D (research and development), and finance, aiming at each stage of PLCs, forecast methodologies with which to predict PLCs are few. The purpose of this research is to develop a novel forecast methodology to allow for predictions of product life time (PLT) and the annual shipment of products during the entire PLC of multiple generation products. A novel two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis method is proposed in this paper. In the first stage, the product life-time of the specific generation to be analyzed will be predicted by the fuzzy piecewise regression line that is derived based upon the product life-time of earlier generations. In the second stage of the forecast methodology, the annual shipment of products of the specified generation will be predicted by deriving annual fuzzy regression lines for each generation, based upon the historical data on the earlier generations' products. An empirical study predicting the life-time and the annual shipment of the 16 Mb (Mega bit) DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) PLC is illustrated to validate the analytical process. The results demonstrate that two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis can predict multiple generation PLT and PLC precisely, thereby serving as a foundation for future strategic planning, policy definitions and foresights.     

Future-oriented technology analysis as a driver of strategy and policy

The methodology known as strategic foresight is an important tool to be used in long-term strategic planning activities and in support of the decision making process in public as well as private sectors. This article addresses the use of strategic foresight applied to the strategic management plan for an agency that deals with the funding and promotion for the development of science, technology and innovation in Brazil, and the logic that permeated its construction, promoting an alliance of the concepts of strategy and foresight. It has as key elements the long-term vision and the adoption of participatory approach and qualitative and quantitative methods. The methodological framework involved the use of different techniques, methods and tools, including, among others, web survey, diagnosis, SWOT, future timeline, interviews, workshops and strategic roadmap.     

绿色通道及其在生态城市中的作用

Greenways can be considered as linear open spaces along natural or artificial linear features such as rivers. shorelines, ridgelines, railroads, canals or roads. They are planned, designed, and managed to connect and protect ecological, scenic, recreational, historic, and cultural resources, The archetype of greenways could go back to the landscape axes and boulevards of Europe in the 18^th century and later tire parkways of USA in the late 19^th century . As a means of urban ecological planning, greenway planning is getting more and more important to sustainable development in urban areas and has become a worldwide activity or a movement. This paper reviews the evolution of greenways and identifies it into three distinct stages or “generations ”. introduces a general methodology of greenway planning, and expounds the functions of greenways to ecotitles. At the end. this paper emphasizes that it is significant to enhance the research and implementation of greenway planning in our country in the case that urbanization will be developing qulckly in the next decades.     

Participatory planning of industrial R&D activities

This paper summarizes and comments on the methodology actually employed in participatory planning of R&D activities for the iron and steel industry in Turkey. Through an organized collaboration with more than a hundred managers, engineers, experts, and planners: (1) technical, managerial, financial, and social problems that are obstacles to the achievement of predetermined goals for the industry are identified and defined; (2) these problems are formulated as R&D candidate projects; and (3) a set of R&D candidate projects are selected for implementation in the 1980s.     

Technological choice in the less developed countries: An analytic hierarchy approach

A novel and practical approach is proposed for the assessment and selection of imported technology by the less developed countries. Technological choice is conceptualized as a multiobjective, multicriterion problem wherein subjective judgments and political processes play key roles. A new planning and evaluation technique known as the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is introduced as a potent methodology for dealing with the economic, social, and political realities confronting technological change in the less developed countries.     

Towards a framework to understand purpose in Futures Studies: The role of Vickers' Appreciative System

There have been comments recently about the efficacy of Futures Studies (and scenario planning) projects, relating to confusion on knowledge aggregation and methodology, which can be summarised in the question: “how to determine the purpose of such projects”. The lack of a purpose framework makes it difficult for ‘clients’ initiating such projects to determine if outcomes meet their original expectations. This paper proposes a framework to help understand the nature, objective and purpose of Futures Studies (and scenario planning) projects, which we will argue helps to overcome these concerns. The proposed framework is based on Vickers' definition of an Appreciative System, highlighting how decision making involves three areas of judgment — reality judgment, value judgment, and instrumental judgment. It will be argued that decision-makers and policymakers call for Futures Studies projects when they become aware of an organizational deficiency in one or more of these areas.Each element, alone or in combination, could form the basis of a purpose definition for a Futures Studies project, and, therefore, needs to be considered to ensure that the project meets client expectations and is experienced as purposeful and rewarding. The paper elaborates on each of the three elements, and then discusses their integrated nature. This is followed by a discussion of the implications of Appreciative System theory for three key players in the decision making process, the organizational leadership, the professionals and the organization at large involved in the practice of Futures Studies (and scenario planning) projects.     

Implementation of computer-integrated manufacturing in small manufacturing firms

Even though small firms are the most fertile institutions in terms of job creation and also comprise the larger part of the manufacturing base of most countries, small firms have been generally quite slow in adapting computer-integrated manufacturing (CIM) technology. This is especially problematic in taday's consumer-oriented market-place, where global competitive pressures are forcing firms to develop highly integrated information systems. In this paper, we will discuss the main reasons for this state of affairs and the steps needed for the implementation of such new methodology. In addition, we explore the advantages of establishing a CIM system as it relates primarily to two areas of operation; logistics planning, and human competence engineering.     

Implementation of computer-integrated manufacturing in small manufacturing firms

Even though small firms are the most fertile institutions in terms of job creation and also comprise the larger part of the manufacturing base of most countries, small firms have been generally quite slow in adapting computer-integrated manufacturing (CIM) technology. This is especially problematic in taday's consumer-oriented market-place, where global competitive pressures are forcing firms to develop highly integrated information systems. In this paper, we will discuss the main reasons for this state of affairs and the steps needed for the implementation of such new methodology. In addition, we explore the advantages of establishing a CIM system as it relates primarily to two areas of operation; logistics planning, and human competence engineering.     

Frontiers of futures research: What's next?

This paper describes some important frontiers of futures research with the aim of identifying new opportunities for improving the value and utility of the field. These frontiers include the exploration and/or the reexamination of

(a) Potential for integrating new technology with futures research methods,

(b) Ways to reduce the domain of the unknowable,

(c) Ways to account for uncertainty in decision making,

(d) Strategies for planning and management of nonlinear systems operating in the chaotic regime,

(e) Ways to improve understanding of psychological factors that lead to irrational decisions

(f) Appropriate levels of aggregation in investigation of forecasting problems.

(g) The potential offered by new sources of social data.