Futures and government: Combating the new philistinism

The downgrading of long-term forecasting and planning in the governments of a number of Western countries is traced to the rise of ‘the new philistinism’—blunt myopia and political opportunism—typified by the stance of the Thatcher and Reagan administrations. After a review of the fate of the proposals for an independent European futures unit deriving from the Europe Plus Thirty project, this article calls for another attempt to set up effective Western futures institutions. Not to forecast and not to plan is a use—or rather, a misuse—of government power.     

Using Financial and Macroeconomic Indicators to Forecast Sales of Large Development and Construction Firms

Sales forecasting is a pivotal component of a corporation’s planning and control activities. Despite the panoply of approaches to sales forecasting, relatively few published studies in forecasting address firm-specific sales forecasting model development for the construction industry. While there is evidence that events in the macroeconomy significantly affect the construction market, most published studies on construction sales forecasts using S-curve models are unable to account for the economic climate. This study proposes an approach that employs financial and macroeconomic indicators to forecast sales of large development and construction corporations. First, by using data for 37 large development and construction firms listed on the construction sector of the Taiwan Stock Exchange between 1997 and 2006, hypothesis tests uncover useful relationships between firm sales and financial and macroeconomic indicators. Second, based on these relationships, a two-stage mathematical modeling procedure is used to develop firm-specific sales forecasting models for three of the sample firms. Finally, out-of-sample forecasting accuracy is evaluated using Theil’s U-statistic and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).     

New directions for futures research —setting the stage

Futures research is currently in a state of abeyance and may well be approaching a critical crossroad. In order to survive it needs to dispense with its tendency to be ‘all things to all people’, dealing with almost any activity that involves the future, and define for itself a unique and synthesizing role within a larger forecasting and planning framework. The primary focus of futures research in the next decade should be in the public sector where the need is greater, however a clear separation must be maintained between its advocacy (value-driven) activities and those that are conceptual and analytical.     

Accounting for Accountability and Management in NPOs. A Comparative Study of Four Countries: Canada, the United Kingdom, the USA and Spain

Financial and non–financial information are developing issues in the NPO field. Countries such as Canada, the UK, the USA and Spain have recently updated their accounting systems for NPOs through the implementation of full accrual basis to enhance their accountability and the usefulness of accounting information for decision–making purposes. The information provided by accrual accounting will be incomplete until performance indicators are developed. The performance indicators are essential for making budgets, for planning and forecasting, for evaluating the financial needs, for carrying out benchmarking with other NPOs or governmental entities, and for explaining the welfare activities realised to donors.     

Scenario development for corporate planning

The term “scenario” is familiar to those involved in forecasting, but too few people are aware of what exactly a scenario is, or how it can best be developed and applied. The author describes a method developed over several years in response to a need which most forecasting efforts have left unfulfilled. The method enables quantitative and qualitative forecasts to be combined in a manner which can be directly related to an organisation's planning and decision-making processes, and which permits the evaluation of a company's objectives and performance in the light of those forecasts. The analysis of an organisation's likely performance in given scenarios can, in turn, provide a basis for contingency planning.     

Shaping the Societal Bill: past and future trends in education, pensions and healthcare expenditure

Education, pensions and healthcare are the main components of the Societal Bill in Europe. Here we analyse the principal trends and trend breaks that will shape the bill in the next decades. Population ageing, changes in household structure, technological progress, new organisation of work and leisure, changes in market labour structure and regulation and increasing migration flows are the main factors that will call for a reform of social systems in Europe. Understanding how all these variables relate each other is a complex challenge that needs to be tackled with both quantitative and qualitative forecasting methods.     

Long-term perspectives for human settlements: The future of the Randstad,the Netherlands

This article deals with a report drawn up under the responsibility of the National Physical Planning Agency, forming the Dutch contribution to the project on Long-Term Perspectives for Human Settlement Developments in the Economic Commission for Europe (ECE) region initiated by the UN ECE Committee on Housing, Building and Planning. The report follows a tradition built up by the National Physical Planning Agency in its efforts to compile physical planning scenarios. For this reason an account is given of the Agency's activities with respect to scenarios. Section 2 deals with decision making concerning the contents of the study. The work process is described in section 3 and the results presented in section 4. In conclusion, some evaluative remarks are made in section 5.     

Future shock and corporate planning

There are changing needs within the corporate community for forecasting and planning systems that interact with the action process. Here, a procedure is described whereby the businessman can arrive at a satisfactory business plan having generated strategic opportunities and then assessed programme options. If the planning and the action process are separate then failure is inevitable.     

Fiscal Forecasting: Lessons from the Literature and Challenges*

While fiscal forecasting and monitoring has its roots in the accountability of governments for the use of public funds in democracies, the Stability and Growth Pact has significantly increased interest in budgetary forecasts in Europe, where they play a key role in EU multilateral budgetary surveillance. In view of the increased prominence and sensitivity of budgetary forecasts, which may lead to them being influenced by strategic and political factors, this paper discusses the main issues and challenges in the field of fiscal forecasting from a practitioner's perspective and places them in the context of the related literature.     

Assessing the validity of the Delphi technique

Forecasting is an essential factor in policy formulation and planning. It helps determine the direction of future actions. While a number of forecasting techniques are utilized to forecast the future, it is important to know just how valid those forecasting techniques can be. The Delphi technique has been called the ‘cornerstone of futures research’. This study reports the results of the assessment of the accuracy of the forecasts derived from the Delphi technique. Twenty-five experts in the communication field assessed 24 trends and 17 events in the state of Hawaii as of 1991. The expert assessments were then compared with the forecasts made by utilizing the Delphi technique 16 years earlier. The results showed that the trend forecasts were significantly correlated with the trend assessment. They also showed that the Delphi technique had accurately forecast approximately half the events that could be evaluated as of 1991. Results from this study lend support to the use of the Delphi technique in long-range forecasting and reveal some interesting findings in forecasting the developments in communication in Hawaii.     

A case study using forecasting as a decision-making aid

By experimenting with forecasting techniques, potential users can broaden their time horizons and improve their understanding of possible future outcomes. This paper describes the aims, structure and results of a seminar on Public Administration performed at the College of Europe in Bruges, Belgium, in September, 1969. The primary techniques used were the Delphi method and the Cross-impact matrix technique.     

The predictive ability of entity-wide geographic sales disclosures: IAS 14R versus IFRS 8

This report examines the predictive value of geographic revenue disclosures under IFRS 8 in forecasting company revenues using four forecast models. The findings show that the predictive accuracy of IFRS 8 entity-wide geographic sales significantly outperform consolidated sales in forecasting consolidated sales one year out. The results indicate that the predictive ability of country specific entity wide geographic sales improves on average by six percent when geographic sales are reported for country of domicile or by each individually material country. The study also finds that geographic sales disclosures by companies located in countries with high and moderate enforcement regimes improve the predictive accuracy of geographic sales by five percent. These results provide evidence that the disclosure of finer geographic sales data is more decision useful and associated with improved predictive accuracy for large listed companies in Europe, Australia and New Zealand.     

Less is more? New evidence from stock market volatility predictability

The complex nature of stock market volatility has motivated researchers to apply a variety of predictors to obtain reliable predictive information for precise forecasting. This study seeks to examine the effectiveness of the novel Global Financial Uncertainty (GFU) indices, comprising of only five sub-indices, in predicting stock market volatility using the widely used mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) model. The results demonstrate the remarkable and stable predictive power of GFU, even during crises and global financial uncertainty shocks. Specifically, the financial uncertainty index from Europe plays a significant role in our analysis. Importantly, we find that the GFU index outperforms a large number of other indicators in stock volatility forecasting. The statistical and economic significance of the predictive power of GFU is remarkable. Our study provides significant insights for market participants and policymakers that highlight the need to prioritize global financial uncertainty.     

Forecasting and planning in the USSR: Part I: 1976–1980

This article considers the development of Soviet Social forecasting in the 1976–1980 period, and begins an updating of Dr Bestuzhev-Lada's report on futures research in the USSR, published in the April 1976 issue of Futures. Particularly significant is the development in the methodological bases of Soviet forecasting activities.     

City foresight and development planning case study: Implementation of scenario planning in formulation of the Bulungan development plan

This article discusses the formulation of the Bulungan Development Plan (2002) that sought to formulate a 25 year city vision. The foresight process included how to prepared the process, implemented the scenario planning method, created consensus amongst stakeholders, and formulated graphic and narrative scenarios that explored alternative future for Bulungan. Based on these scenarios, the stakeholders formulated a vision for the city's preferred future. The vision is “excellence in agro industry supported by qualified human resources”.Project debriefing showed that unlike traditional forecasting or market research, the methods of foresight, especially scenario planning, is a more appropriate and powerful planning tool for integrated regional development. The main reason for this is that the future is unpredictable, and scenarios allow stakeholders to make sense of complexity.     

Futures research in Czechoslovakia

This is a review of futures studies in a socialist country where long-term forecasting has become institutionalised and serves the centralised policy making and planning. History of the subject, organisation of research and education, work on allocated research projects and on national economic forecasts, as well as its information network, are described.     

Industrial behaviour patterns: A new dimension for planners

The analysis of industrial behaviour patterns and the factors which control them is an excellent tool for forecasting and planning. The paper presents the behaviour pattern which the high (new) technology industries such as the aerospace, chemical, computer, electronic, instrument, nuclear, and advanced material and transportation industries, have been following for the past 25 years. The petrochemical industry is used as an example.     

Using possibility functions for long-term environmental planning

Current forecasting methodologies are deficient because they are only reliable for a few years into the future and focus on predicting the future. Serious environmental problems may require planning horizons in excess of 100 years. This article presents a planning method which uses possibility functions. Possibility functions that describe demographic variables can be combined with themselves and with probability functions that describe uncertainty about scientific knowledge. The article illustrates how possibility functions could be used to study the CO₂ problem.     

Connecting adaptation and strategy: The role of evolutionary theory in scenario planning

In this study, evolutionary theory is used to analyze and critique the strategic process of scenario planning. We argue that scenario planning can be strengthened as a theory- and practice-oriented process through the incorporation of evolutionary theory in the scenario narrative process, and in the subsequent implementation phases in response to environmental change. First, this paper addresses scenario planning in relation to theoretical perspectives on strategic planning and forecasting. Then, the concepts of variation, selection, retention, organizational learning and inertia are used to analyze scenario planning as a strategic process. This study argues that because scenario planning mirrors modes of variation and selection at the organizational level, evolutionary theory is a useful approach for assessing the plausibility of scenario narratives and strengthening the theoretical foundation of scenario planning as a process. By utilizing an evolutionary framework throughout the scenario planning process, this method has a better chance of encouraging exploratory strategic thinking without reinforcing non-blind variation or inertial practices. Concepts including inertia can also be used to better address bias and myopia in the scenario planning process. Additionally, evolutionary theory can be used to assess how entities learn from the outcomes of scenario planning as the environment changes over time.     

Airport planning For a place in the future environment

There is so much at stake, economically and socially, in the building of an airport that forecasting studies and planning a long time in advance are of the greatest importance. Aircraft, airspace, airports and ground environment are parts of a system which must be analysed and planned together so as to anticipate the expanding requirements of human and freight transport.