A mark II survey and critique of future research teaching in North America

In 1970, an initial survey was carried out on teaching futurism at the undergraduate level based on forty courses that could be located in Canada and the United States (Technological Forecasting and Social Change, December 1970). During 1971 and 1972, information was collected, primarily by a replicated questionnaire, on approximately 200 courses in North America; this was reported on to the Third World Future Research Conference in Bucharest (September 1972) indicating major changes that had occured over the two-year period in the field. Six generalizations were made: (1) Futurism is becoming increasingly institutionalized as more and more courses are being “futurized” to a greater or lesser degree. (2) Learning/teaching interaction tends increasingly to employ innovative or “futuristic” techniques. (3) Much influential and seminal work in future research is not made by “futurists” per se, but enters the field from outside: technological forecasting and assessment, systems analysis, gaming, model building, etc. (4) Interdisciplinary future-oriented research on contemporary problems may be adding a new dimension to human capability. (5) There is still much froth and nonsense in “futuristics”, but can future research be truly innovative without such imaginative inputs? (6) Future research may turn out to be merely a subset in the policy sciences, i.e., delivery systems.     

Sentimental fools: a critique of Amartya Sen’s notion of commitment

Commitment is problematic because one sometimes pursues it against one’s interest. To solve it, the paper proposes a distinction between ‘non-binding’ and ‘binding’ commitments. Non-binding commitment is about ambition, such as becoming a great chef, which bolsters welfare in the pecuniary sense as well as self-respect. In contrast, ‘binding commitment’ is about honesty. While it diminishes welfare, it augments self-integrity. The neoclassical view reduces both commitments to interest, while the multiple-self approach separates both commitments from interest. The separation permits the confusion of sentimental fools, who enter commitments without regard to interest, with rational sentimentalists, who take interest into consideration.     

Vulgar economy in Marxian garb: a critique of Temporal Single System Marxism

This paper presents a critique of recent efforts, under the rubric of Temporal Single System Marxism, to defend Marx’s value theory against the claim that his transformation algorithm is flawed. Although Marx did make a number of errors in elaborating his theory of value and the profit rate, these missteps do not undermine his larger scientific project. Far greater damage has been inflicted by his would-be Temporal Single System defenders, who camouflage Marx’s errors by detaching him from his Ricardian roots; in the process they redefine value in a way that trivializes its function in Marx’s system.     

Economic Education Research: Part II,New Directions in Theoretical Model Building

This article on research methodology in economic education is the second in a three-part series. The first, which appeared in the Winter 1983 issue of this Journal, focused on issues and questions economic education researchers should address. The present article provides suggestions for the development of theoretical models in which these issues and questions can be conceptualized, organized, and formally stated as empirically testable hypotheses. The final article will review statistical and econometric techniques appropriate for model estimation and statistical testing of specific hypotheses about teaching methods and other issues related to the production of economic learning.     

Returns to education in China: a meta-analysis

Within labour economics, returns to education is an area of focused research. Moreover, amongst studies looking at emerging economies, China is the most widely studied economy. While there is a general consensus that returns to education are positive, studies use various datasets and methodologies and consequently present varying estimates of returns to education. We perform a meta-analysis of these estimates of the returns to education in China, addressing issues of heterogeneity in the existing literature and examining whether variations in reported estimates can be explained by study characteristics such as dataset and estimation methods, among others. The meta-regression results show that variations in reported estimates can be accounted for by study characteristics such as data source, estimation method and sample period, among others. The results support the college premium hypothesis and reveal that the returns to education for college graduates are higher than those for other (lower) levels of education.     

Diffusion of technical change in medicine— a case study of oncology in a traditional society

This article reviews a new program established to provide modern modes of oncologic therapy to Arab cancer patients in the West Bank. The population of this region is distinguished by its fatalistic and traditional attitudes, and communication via word of mouth is prevalent. Therefore, the social system can be considered as one of traditional norms discouraging the adoption of new ideas. Demonstration effects and face-to-face communication proved effective in bringing about social change in health patterns.     

Tourism as an alternative source of regional growth in Portugal: a panel data analysis at NUTS II and III levels

The role of tourism is of vital economic importance, particularly for small countries with a privileged geographical location and favourable weather conditions. This paper examines the importance of tourism as a conditioning factor for higher regional growth in Portugal by employing the conditional convergence hypothesis of Barro and Sala-i-Martin, associated with the endogenous growth theory. The panel data estimation approach provides evidence of the positive impact of tourism (through the accommodation capacity) on the growth in per-capita income among the Portuguese regions, increasing the rate of convergence. Therefore, tourism can be considered as an alternative source for stimulating higher regional growth in Portugal, if the supply characteristics of this sector are improved.     

Past Futures: On the Conceptual History of Eugenics—a Social Technology of the Past

Based on an introduction to the conceptual history of Reinhart Koselleck, this paper traces the historical development of 'eugenics' as a concept. This concept has been immensely influential in shaping the debate on the regulation of human genetic and reproductive technologies. At the beginning of the 20th century eugenics was cast as a social technology associated with strong, almost utopian technological expectations for the future. By the end of the century it was by contrast seen as a dangerous threat, a potential repetition of the past strongly connected to notions of compulsion, ethnic cleansing and crime. In between these two points lies a historical development, traced here through the development of the concept of eugenics as rendered in Scandinavian encyclopaedias throughout the 20th century. In this process a larger and more complex semantic framework emerges illustrating the shifting relationship between experience and expectations.     

Technological forecasting: Applicability,relevance and future crisis analysis in a developing country

The relevance of technological forecasting for a developing country with examples from the Indian scene is discussed. The applicability of some of the techniques of technological forecasting under Indian conditions is examined. It is shown that certain parameters in India follow systematic semilogarithmic and substitution trends, as in the case of developed countries, and these trends may be extrapolated into the future with some confidence.Using mainly extrapolation technique, a future crisis analysis for the Indian situation up to the year 2000 is presented. Steps have been suggested to avert the impending crisis. These include (1) determination of future supply and demand positions of various basic materials; (2) conducting Delphi exercises; (3) selection of the best alternatives in view of resource constraints using economic analysis; (4) wide dissemination of the results to make the decisionmakers and scientists aware of these possible solutions; (5) framing suitable policies and executing them, starting now, so that the desired future becomes a reality.     

Corporate Restructuring in Japan Part I: Can M‐Form Organization Manage Diverse Businesses?

The purpose of this paper is to examine the recent organizational restructuring in Japan in the framework of organizational economics, assuming that the product/market portfolio of the firm is fixed. How does a firm set about organizing its internal divisions? I first summarize some stylized facts on corporate diversification strategy and multi‐divisional (M‐form) organization in large Japanese firms from different perspectives. I then analyse the problem of choosing an organizational form. In particular, I argue that, precisely because of its related diversification, the multi‐business Japanese firm adopting the M‐form finds it difficult to differentiate its diverse businesses internally.     

New evidence on the effects of job creation schemes in Germany—a matching approach with threefold heterogeneity

This paper evaluates the effects of job creation schemes on the participating individuals in Germany. The very informative dataset at hand justifies the application of a matching estimator and allows to take account of threefold heterogeneity. The recently developed multiple treatment framework is used to evaluate the effects with respect to regional and individual heterogeneity as well as to differences in the programme sectors. The results show considerable differences with respect to these sources of heterogeneity, but the overall finding is very clear. At the end of our observation period, that is 2 years after the start of the programmes, participants in job creation schemes have a significantly lower success probability on the labour market in comparison to matched non-participants.     

A Delphi-based risk analysis — Identifying and assessing future challenges for supply chain security in a multi-stakeholder environment

Identifying and assessing the potential impact and likelihood of future events, which might evolve into risks, are a prerequisite to identify future security challenges. In particular, risks associated with global supply chains are special since they involve a multitude of international stakeholders with different perspectives on security needs and measures. Therefore, it is essential to determine which techniques and instruments are best suited for risk assessment in complex and multi-organizational environments. The Delphi expert survey technique has proven to be a valuable instrument for long-term decision making support as well as foresight, and has a potential value for risk assessment. We contribute to this research strand and conduct a Delphi-based risk analysis. Our research concentrates on man-made risks in global supply chains which are particularly uncertain in terms of type, location, and affected supply chain partners and can therefore be classified as inherently “wicked” issues, i.e. issues that are multidimensional with often unpleasant outcomes. We illustrate that Delphi research makes a fivefold contribution to risk analysis by: (1) identifying and quantifying risks; (2) analyzing stakeholder perceptions and worldviews; (3) stimulating a global communication process; (4) identifying weak signals, outlier opinions, and wildcards; (5) and facilitating risk scenario development.     

Mother's education and child development: Evidence from the compulsory school reform in China

This paper investigates the causal impact of mother's schooling on various outcomes of adolescent development by exploiting the temporal and geographical variations in the enforcement of compulsory schooling laws in China. Using data from China Family Panel Studies, we find that mother's education increases adolescents’ school enrollment, math test scores, college aspiration, and internal locus of control related to education. Mother's education also improves adolescent mental health status and reduces the incidence of underweight. We also find considerable gender heterogeneity in the effects of mother's education. The results further indicate that mother's education leads to an increase in family resources for children and an improvement in maternal mental health and parenting, which we interpret as potential mechanisms behind our findings.     

增加农民收入是全面建设小康社会的重要任务

党的十六大报告高举邓小平理论伟大旗帜,全面贯彻“三个代表”重要思想,确立了新世纪前20年全面建设小康社会的奋斗目标,明确了我国经济、政治、文化等各项建设和改革重大任务,同时也把解决“三农”问题摆在了国民经济和社会发展的重要位置。十六大报告明确指出:“统筹城乡经济社会发展,建设现代农业,发展农村经济,增加农民收入,是全面建设小康社会的重大任务。”这是立足我国国情和农村实际做出的一个重大判断,是今后一个时期我国农业和农村工作的指导方针,也对如何增加农民收入指明了方向。客观地说,在我国绝大多数群众解决温饱问题以后,…