University education in future studies— a Mark III critique: Part I

In 1970 an initial survey was made of futures courses at university level based on forty courses that could be located in the United States and Canada (Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, 2: 133–148 [1970]. This was replicated during 1970–1972 on approximately 200 North American courses and reported changes in the field at the Third World Future Research Conference in Bucharest, September 1972 (Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, 4:387–407 [1973]). A third iteration was funded by the World Institute Council and published in abstracted form with their permission here. The conclusions to be drawn from some six years of analysis of such courses, and drawn especially from the specifics of the 300 courses in the third iteration, can be lumped under five main headings: (1) All disciplines are to some degree finally alerted to the future implications of both their research and their teaching. (2) There remains still much “froth and nonsense” in futures courses. How to control this and encourage lively creativity is a complex problem–especially since the intellectual image of futurism today is not that high! (3) There appears to be no reliable sociocultural change theory backing future studies and there is precious little solid theory in the field itself–offset by some progress in methodology. (4) Despite these strictures, if all future-oriented courses in American/Canadian universities were lumped together (future studies per se; technology forecasting/assessment; policy sciences; peace studies; demography; environmental/ecology courses; general systems theory/system analysis/ system dynamics; mathematical modelling and game theory; eschatology; utopian literature and science fiction; even black studies and women's courses) the total might approach 5000 and it is still growing, as is popular and academic understanding of the necessity “to plan ahead” in this period of human malaise. (5) Informal education of varied worth, from free swinging communes to middle management cram courses conducted by think-tanks, may turn out to be more useful in future- oriented advanced education than that which takes place in formal “walled” traditional institutions.     

A mark II survey and critique of future research teaching in North America

In 1970, an initial survey was carried out on teaching futurism at the undergraduate level based on forty courses that could be located in Canada and the United States (Technological Forecasting and Social Change, December 1970). During 1971 and 1972, information was collected, primarily by a replicated questionnaire, on approximately 200 courses in North America; this was reported on to the Third World Future Research Conference in Bucharest (September 1972) indicating major changes that had occured over the two-year period in the field. Six generalizations were made: (1) Futurism is becoming increasingly institutionalized as more and more courses are being “futurized” to a greater or lesser degree. (2) Learning/teaching interaction tends increasingly to employ innovative or “futuristic” techniques. (3) Much influential and seminal work in future research is not made by “futurists” per se, but enters the field from outside: technological forecasting and assessment, systems analysis, gaming, model building, etc. (4) Interdisciplinary future-oriented research on contemporary problems may be adding a new dimension to human capability. (5) There is still much froth and nonsense in “futuristics”, but can future research be truly innovative without such imaginative inputs? (6) Future research may turn out to be merely a subset in the policy sciences, i.e., delivery systems.     

The Japanese institutional mechanisms for industrial growth: A systems perspective—Part I

The two-part article focuses on the unique institutional setting which has enabled Japan to become a leader in rapid technology-based industrial growth. The innovation systems of the United States and Japan are compared. Three cases—fuzzy logic, active matrix crystal displays, and virtual reality—are examined. The underlying systemic characteristics are then probed.     

Sentimental fools: a critique of Amartya Sen’s notion of commitment

Commitment is problematic because one sometimes pursues it against one’s interest. To solve it, the paper proposes a distinction between ‘non-binding’ and ‘binding’ commitments. Non-binding commitment is about ambition, such as becoming a great chef, which bolsters welfare in the pecuniary sense as well as self-respect. In contrast, ‘binding commitment’ is about honesty. While it diminishes welfare, it augments self-integrity. The neoclassical view reduces both commitments to interest, while the multiple-self approach separates both commitments from interest. The separation permits the confusion of sentimental fools, who enter commitments without regard to interest, with rational sentimentalists, who take interest into consideration.     

Estimating technical change in aggregate production functions: a critique

This paper extends the approach of Simon and Shaikh and demonstrates that the estimates of aggregate production functions can provide no independent evidence of the underlying technology of the economy. It is further shown that estimates of labour and capital augmenting technical progress will merely be equal, by definition, to the growth rates of real wages and of the real rental price of capital respectively. This is illustrated by reference to recent studies that estimate technical progress for the Australian manufacturing industries.     

Fiscal federalism in Russia: a critique of the OECD proposals

The OECD proposes to kill two birds with one stone in Russiaby simultaneously improving fiscal federalism, and using thefinancial reform process to press for full market liberalisation.This paper scrutinises the initiative and finds it wanting becausethe consensus reforms advocated conflate the re-centralisationof fiscal authority with optimal ownership, property rightsand effective market building, perpetuating the illusion thatthere are no bad market systems. The G-7 and Putin must do better.Yeltsin's mis-privatisation and mis-liberalisation, which spawnedrent seeking, asset stripping, asset seizing and a disregardfor profit maximising from current operations, have proved tobe path dependent and need to be rectified. Putin's increasinglyvisible efforts to rein private property rights must also betaken into account in designing on optimal fiscal federalistregime.     

Vulgar economy in Marxian garb: a critique of Temporal Single System Marxism

This paper presents a critique of recent efforts, under the rubric of Temporal Single System Marxism, to defend Marx’s value theory against the claim that his transformation algorithm is flawed. Although Marx did make a number of errors in elaborating his theory of value and the profit rate, these missteps do not undermine his larger scientific project. Far greater damage has been inflicted by his would-be Temporal Single System defenders, who camouflage Marx’s errors by detaching him from his Ricardian roots; in the process they redefine value in a way that trivializes its function in Marx’s system.     

Economic Education Research: Part II,New Directions in Theoretical Model Building

This article on research methodology in economic education is the second in a three-part series. The first, which appeared in the Winter 1983 issue of this Journal, focused on issues and questions economic education researchers should address. The present article provides suggestions for the development of theoretical models in which these issues and questions can be conceptualized, organized, and formally stated as empirically testable hypotheses. The final article will review statistical and econometric techniques appropriate for model estimation and statistical testing of specific hypotheses about teaching methods and other issues related to the production of economic learning.     

The biological hypothesis in cliometrics of growth: a methodological critique of Fogel (post 1982) and Ashraf & Galor (2013)

The resort to biological “analogies”, “metaphors” and “concepts” is an important aspect of the history of the relationships between economics and biology and has long been greatly controversial. This controversy continues today in the most recent work of three cliometricians, i.e. Fogel (post 1982) and Ashraf and Galor (2013). We focus on the theories of historical growth relying on biological explanations which have been formulated by these economists, from the specific angle of biological reductionism. We propose a methodological critique of their use of biological variables as determinants of the historical dynamics of economic growth. Based upon the transposition to the field of economics of Ernst Mayr’s distinction between functional and evolutionary biology and his definitions of reductionism, we argue that despite some similarities, the questions raised by Fogel’s and Ashraf & Galor’s theories are of distinct nature. Nonetheless, we stress the need for a careful examination of the biological mechanisms supporting these researches.     

Returns to education in China: a meta-analysis

Within labour economics, returns to education is an area of focused research. Moreover, amongst studies looking at emerging economies, China is the most widely studied economy. While there is a general consensus that returns to education are positive, studies use various datasets and methodologies and consequently present varying estimates of returns to education. We perform a meta-analysis of these estimates of the returns to education in China, addressing issues of heterogeneity in the existing literature and examining whether variations in reported estimates can be explained by study characteristics such as dataset and estimation methods, among others. The meta-regression results show that variations in reported estimates can be accounted for by study characteristics such as data source, estimation method and sample period, among others. The results support the college premium hypothesis and reveal that the returns to education for college graduates are higher than those for other (lower) levels of education.     

Tourism as an alternative source of regional growth in Portugal: a panel data analysis at NUTS II and III levels

The role of tourism is of vital economic importance, particularly for small countries with a privileged geographical location and favourable weather conditions. This paper examines the importance of tourism as a conditioning factor for higher regional growth in Portugal by employing the conditional convergence hypothesis of Barro and Sala-i-Martin, associated with the endogenous growth theory. The panel data estimation approach provides evidence of the positive impact of tourism (through the accommodation capacity) on the growth in per-capita income among the Portuguese regions, increasing the rate of convergence. Therefore, tourism can be considered as an alternative source for stimulating higher regional growth in Portugal, if the supply characteristics of this sector are improved.     

Diffusion of technical change in medicine— a case study of oncology in a traditional society

This article reviews a new program established to provide modern modes of oncologic therapy to Arab cancer patients in the West Bank. The population of this region is distinguished by its fatalistic and traditional attitudes, and communication via word of mouth is prevalent. Therefore, the social system can be considered as one of traditional norms discouraging the adoption of new ideas. Demonstration effects and face-to-face communication proved effective in bringing about social change in health patterns.