Structural change: Pace,patterns and determinants

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of structural change in the world economy. The analysis relies on a newly constructed dataset comprising 169 countries and covering the period from 1991 to 2013. Shapley decompositions are employed to evaluate the pace and pattern of structural change across regions and sub‐regions. Country‐level estimates are then used to conduct an original empirical exercise on the determinants of structural change. The results suggest that labor reallocations (structural change) have played a critical role in enhancing economic performance since the early 2000s, even if they remain comparatively less important than within‐sector productivity improvements. The widespread reallocation of labor from agriculture to the services sectors has been the key driver of structural change. Finally, we find robust evidence that the pace of structural change is significantly shaped by human and physical capital. The policy implication is that investments in education and economic infrastructure are crucial to accelerating structural change.     

Structural Change,Expanding Informality and Labor Productivity Growth in Russia

Strong growth, intensive structural change, and expanding informality have characterized many developing and emerging economies in recent decades. Yet most empirical investigations into the relationship between structural change and productivity growth overlook informality. This paper includes the informal sector in an analysis of the effects of structural changes in the Russian economy on aggregate labor productivity growth. Using a newly developed dataset for 34 industries covering the period 1995–2012 and applying three alternative approaches, aggregate labor productivity growth is decomposed into intra-industry and inter-industry contributions. All three approaches show that the overall contribution of structural change is growth enhancing, significant, and decreasing over time. Labor reallocation from the formal sector to the informal sector tends to reduce growth through the extension of informal activities with low productivity levels. Sectoral labor reallocation effects are found to be highly sensitive to the methods applied.     

去工业化及其在中国的适应性研究——基于结构失衡视角

去工业化是工业化进程中的一种经济结构失衡现象,体现在要素配置结构、产业结构、区域经济结构、价值链结构等方面,这种失衡给国民经济发展带来了严重后果。产业结构理论、产业转移理论、结构主义发展理论、极化理论等是研究去工业化问题的重要理论来源。基于结构失衡视角,中国不仅存在某种形式的整体性去工业化,也存在明显的区域性去工业化。在当前发达国家再工业化呼声日益高涨的国际背景下,对中国去工业化问题进行深入研究,无论是对防范未来的可能危机还是对优化经济结构、转变经济增长方式都具有重要的现实意义。     

结构变迁、工资差异与经济增长——基于75个国家和地区1978—2007年面板数据的实证研究

文章基于1978-2007年包括中国等发展中国家在内的跨国数据探讨结构变化的增长效应,通过扩展MRW(1992)模型得出结构变化与部门间工资比的关系,并着重考察结构变化和工资差异对经济增长的影响。研究发现:(1)当部门间劳动边际产出存在差异时,劳动的重新配置有助于经济增长。(2)结构变化率和工资差异与经济增长正相关。(3)在发展中国家或地区,结构变化的增长效应最大,物质资本的影响次之;在发达国家,人力资本的增长效应最大,结构变化的影响不显著。     

Inflation,money, interest rate,exchange rate,and casuality: the case of Egypt,Morocco, and Tunisia

This study provides further evidence of the inflationary efects of the rates of growth of money supply, gross domestic product, efective exchange rate, and imported inflation for Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia using quarterly data from 1964 to 1990. In addition, it examines the Granger causality between inflation and money supply as well as between inflation and the real exchange rate in the countries under consideration. Most of the results are consistent with extant theory and empirical evidence.     

中部六省制造业结构调整与劳动生产率关系的实证研究

本文对中部地区6省制造业2003—2007年的行业增加值及劳动投入数据进行研究,通过计算Hoover指数和Krugman指数发现各省发生了明显的产业结构调整,产业结构差异程度增强。然后使用偏离-份额分析法测算结构转变对劳动生产率增长的贡献,证实"结构红利"的影响存在,但不明显。最后根据中部地区各省制造业呈现的特点,提出劳动力资源应向内部增长型和动态转移增长型部门转移等政策建议。     

Stability of M2 money demand function in industrial countries

In this article, we set out a model of labour productivity which distinguishes between shocks which change productivity permanently and shocks which have transient affects on productivity. We show that this model is a type of unobserved components model – a random walk with drift plus noise model. The advantage of this approach is that it provides a coherent framework to identify the deterministic trend growth component and also the productivity enhancing (or technology related) stochastic components. The model is applied to aggregate labour productivity in Australia and the time series of technology shocks extracted is used to shed some light on the contributions of policy reforms to productivity.     

Structural reforms and fiscal adjustments: policy options for the euro area

This paper analyses the effects of structural reform and fiscal consolidation policies in the Euro Area using a stylized new-Keynesian model. A number of issues are focused upon: (i) the modelling and effects of fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, and (ii) evaluation of alternative reform and consolidation scenarios, including their joint implementation.     

The early stages of reform in Polish manufacturingStructural adjustment, ownership and size

This paper argues that a significant adjustment process has taken place in Polish industry in the early stages of the market-oriented reforms. We analyse comprehensive data on two-digit and three-digit manufacturing industries, disaggregated by firm ownership and size. By focusing on a decomposition of labour productivity growth, we obtain results which suggest that structural determinants of the recovery have outweighed cyclical ones. With regard to firm ownership and economic performance, we find that the productive response of state enterprises has been markedly different from that of private firms, with the latter outperforming the former. Finally, our results indicate that size matters, at least among private firms, and our results provide mild evidence of increasing returns.
JEL classification: D21, E63, P21.     

Tax decentralization,labour productivity,and employment in OECD countries

Tax decentralization should improve the efficiency of local governments and ultimately boost output growth. However, the empirical evidence is mixed. Decomposing output growth into labour productivity and employment growth, we show that the ultimate effect of fiscal decentralization on growth depends on which factor prevails, thus rendering the direct estimation of tax decentralization on growth ambiguous. Using an instrumental variable approach, with instruments based on institutional similarities and geographic distance, the empirical analysis on a sample of 20 OECD countries shows that the positive and significant effect of tax decentralization on the employment growth rate is offset by the reduction of labour productivity growth, resulting in the absence of any statistically significant effect on output growth.     

Putting Austerity to Bed: Technical Progress,Aggregate Demand and the Supermultiplier

ABSTRACT

The paper investigates the determinants of private investment and economic growth from a theoretical perspective. We start with a critical analysis of the crowding-out effect and we present a new version of the Sraffian Supermultiplier: a model that accounts for both the multiplier and accelerator effects. We focus on different types of fiscal policies: generic ones and ‘mission-oriented’ ones that set a new direction for the economy. We show that mission-oriented policies have the potential to generate the largest positive effect on investments and output growth as well as on innovation processes and labour productivity growth.     

Coordination versus flexibility in wage formation: a focus on the nominal wage impact of productivity in Germany,Greece, Ireland,Portugal, Spain and the United States

Wage coordination between countries of the European Monetary Union (EMU) aims at aligning nominal wage growth with labour productivity growth at the national level. We analyse the developments in Germany, the EMU’s periphery countries Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain along with the United States over the period 1980 to 2010. Apart from the contribution of productivity to nominal wages, we take into account the contributions of prices, unemployment, replacement rates and taxes by means of an econometrically estimated nonlinear equation resulting from a wage bargaining model. We further study the downward rigidities of nominal wages. The findings show that in past times of low productivity, price inflation and reductions in unemployment still put significant upward pressure on nominal wage growth. The periphery countries are far from aligning nominal wage growth with productivity growth. German productivity is a major wage determinant, but surely not the only one. Within the context of a free bargaining process between employers and labour unions, policy-makers can effectively use the replacement rate to steer the nominal wages outcome.     

略论二元经济的实质与转化——基于信息和知识视角

二元经济是发展中国家在发展过程中最基本的经济特征.从信息和知识的角度看,任何经济系统、组织、个人都是信息和知识生产、收集、传递及利用的装置,二元经济形成的关键在于不同区域在信息和知识的生产、收集、传递及利用能力及效率上的差异.因此,二元经济如何发展和转换完全取决于该区域内与信息和知识利用相关能力的形成和发展.     

Monetary integration vs. real disintegration: single currency and productivity divergence in the euro area #

Productivity slowdown plays a prominent role in the build-up of the euro area crisis. This phenomenon affected member countries asymmetrically, causing divergence in their productivity trends. Recent research traces this divergence back to monetary integration. After reviewing the arguments that link real “disintegration” of the euro area to its monetary integration, we assess them empirically by modelling the evolution of labour productivity using a panel of sectorial data. The results indicate that monetary unification may actually have fostered divergence in productivity trends, and suggest some economic policy measures that could prevent further divergence.     

劳动力迁移与中国制造业结构转型升级

劳动力迁移会对劳动力供给的空间配置产生影响,最终影响产业结构转型升级.产业结构的升级一般包括产业高级化和产业合理化.本文选取2002—2015年省级面板数据,使用动态面板模型对劳动力迁移和制造业的高级化和合理化进行分析.结果发现:劳动力迁移会促进流入地制造业合理化程度的提高,但不利于制造业的高级化.只有在外资规模较大和人力资本积累水平较高的地区,劳动力迁入才会对本地的制造业高级化产生积极影响;外资规模、人力资本积累和市场化程度的提高都有利于增强劳动力迁移对制造业结构合理化的积极作用.本文的研究结论为我国未来进一步优化产业结构、培育先进制造业和实现经济高质量发展提供了一个新的视角.     

产业结构变动、技术进步与低碳经济发展:以广东省为例

本文基于碳排放强度的视角,运用转换份额分析法,将结构变动和技术进步从碳排放强度变化率中分解出来,实证度量了广东省产业结构变动和技术进步对低碳经济发展的影响。结果表明:1999年以来技术进步是决定广东省碳排放强度变化的关键因素,而产业结构变动对碳排放强度变化的影响作用较小;从产业部门看,工业部门对整体经济碳排放强度变化的作用最大。因此,在优化产业行业结构中,支持重点产业行业的节能减排技术进步,进一步降低二氧化碳排放强度,是广东未来实现低碳经济发展的关键。     

Real wages,inflation and labour productivity in Australia

This article presents an analysis of real wages, inflation and labour productivity interrelationships using cointegration, Granger causality and, most importantly, structural change tests. Applications of tests to Australian data over the 1965 to 2007 period corroborate the presence of a structural break in 1985 and show that a 1% increase in manufacturing sector real wages led to an increase in manufacturing sector productivity of between 0.5% and 0.8%. Comparable estimates for the effect of inflation on manufacturing sector productivity have limited statistical significance. Granger causality test results suggest that real wages and inflation both Granger cause productivity in the long run.     

Flexible Labour,Firm Performance and the Dutch Job Creation Miracle

Unlike internal (‘functional’) forms of flexibility of labour, external (‘numerical’) forms of flexibility (i.e. high shares of people on temporary contract or a high turnover of personnel) yield substantial savings on a firm’s wage bill. Savings on wage bills lead to higher job growth, but do not translate into higher sales growth. Externally flexible labour appears to be related to lower labour productivity growth, the effects being different for innovating vs non‐innovating firms. We discuss these findings from firm‐level and worker‐level data against the background of the Dutch job creation miracle during the 1980s and 1990s. Modest wage increases and flexibilization of labour markets may indeed create lots of jobs. However, this is likely to happen at the expense of labour productivity growth, raising serious doubts about the long‐run sustainability of a low‐productivity–high‐employment growth path.     

Community banks,money and labour productivity

Does money affect productivity? We examine whether bank deposits, a measure of the money supply that excludes currency in circulation, influence labour productivity. Banks deposits are special in that they facilitate transactions and, in aggregate, add liquidity and credit availability to a region. By exploiting the distribution of community bank deposits across the states, we test the hypothesis that money is an input to the production function under a variety of panel data methods. We find evidence that bank transaction deposits and total deposits along with other production function inputs such as wages, labour and gross state product are cointegrated across the states; however, the economic contribution of money to labour productivity appears limited.