当前房地产价格走势与宏观调控策略选择

房地产价格形成的基础具有其他商品所没有的特殊性。面对房地产价格快速上涨的态势，为了既不伤害房地产业的健康发展，又能有效满足广大城市居民对住宅的需求，应当把宏观调控的切入点放在直接调近代房地产供求。稳定房地产价格的关键在于实现有效供求平衡。     

重庆市天然气价格调整的经济影响

文章分别从天然气价格与可替代能源价格的定量关系、天然气的价格与其消费量的关系、天然气消费量的GDP弹性三个方面分析重庆市天然气价格调整的经济影响,然后给出相应的政策建议.     

Welfare implications of Calvo vs. Rotemberg-pricing assumptions

This paper compares the welfare implications of two widely used pricing assumptions in the New-Keynesian literature: Calvo-pricing vs. Rotemberg-pricing. We show that despite the strong similarities between the two assumptions to a first order of approximation, in general they might entail different welfare costs at higher order of approximation.     

论住房的刚性需求

住房刚性需求是需求收入弹性较大而价格弹性较小的具有一定购买力的消费性需求。在刚性需求内部具有不同级别的"刚性",刚性渐减的顺序是货币化的拆迁性需求、婚房需求、改善型需求。对于不同性质的城市,其住房刚性需求是不同的,政治性城市住房刚性需求比较大,开放性城市刚性需求变化较大;在现阶段,由于房价财富幻觉导致了刚性需求加速效应和叠加效应。制度变迁、房价和收入都是影响住房刚性需求的重要因素。     

Disaggregation of excess demand and comparative statics with incomplete markets and nominal assets

Summary. We prove that locally, Walras' law and homogeneity characterize the structure of market excess demand functions when financial markets are incomplete and assets' returns are nominal. The method of proof is substantially different from all existing arguments as the properties of individual demand are also different. We show that this result has important implications and is part of a more general result that excess demand is an essentially arbitrary function not just of prices, but also of the exogenous parameters of the economy as asset returns, preferences, and endowments. Thus locally the equilibrium manifold, relating equilibrium prices to these parameters has also no structure. Received: September 17, 1996; revised version: November 7, 1997     

Scale economies with regard to price adjustment costs and the speed of price adjustment in Australian manufacturing

This paper aims to examine the impact of firm size, industry concentration and the length of production on industry speed of price adjustment. To motivate the paper, an industry pricing model in error correction form is derived from firm pricing behaviour. As a new development, firms are assumed to have price adjustment costs that are a function of their size. The empirical model is estimated using two‐digit Australian manufacturing industry data for the period 1994:3 to 2006:1. The results suggest that the industry speed of price adjustment is positively related to firm size and negatively related to industry concentration and the production lag. Implied values for industry speeds of price adjustment are generally small when compared to other country industry studies. However, the industry average median lag of 7.1 quarters indicates a slightly faster speed of price adjustment than the estimate for the Australian consumer price index by Dwyer and Leong (2001 Dwyer, J. and Leong, K. 2001. Changes in the determination of inflation in Australia 1–44. Reserve Bank of Australia Research Discussion Paper 2001‐02 [Google Scholar]).     

Option moneyness and price disagreements

This article investigates price disagreements between actual and options-implied futures prices by considering option moneyness. Out-of-the-money (OTM) options trading induces price disagreements more frequently than at-the-money (ATM) options trading. Examining price adjustments to eliminate disagreements, we find that the futures (options) market tends to move less (more) for OTM option disagreements than ATM option disagreements, suggesting that the price dynamics of OTM options are less informative and noisier than that of ATM options.     

Inflation, Deflation and Normal Price Adjustment

This paper thinks that the price of a commodity depends on both the value of the commodity and that of the currency. The change in either value will cause the change of the price of the commodity. Only the price rising caused by the decreasing of the currency value can be called inflation, and the price rising led by the increasing of the value of the merchandise can not be called inflation. Therefore, it is not proper, as defined by the modem economics, to think that any price increasing should be in general called inflation.     

The role of price risk in China’s agricultural and fisheries exports to the US

This article explores the effect of price risk on the US importers’ optimal allocation of agriculture imports between the major supplier, China, and other competing countries. We first modify a demand system to account for the impacts of own-price risk and cross-price risk, and then apply the model to 16 agricultural and fisheries commodities exported to the US. The estimation results show that importers are sensitive to price risks of 14 Chinese commodities. Comparisons between price risk–trade relations of agricultural and fisheries products and between trade effects of cross-price risk on Chinese goods and substitutes provide strong evidence for explaining the observed trade patterns. Our study highlights the importance of price stability in promoting international trade, especially from developing countries to developed countries.     

均衡价格--动态市场价格的形成与变化趋势

本介绍了用来模拟动态市场价格的微分方程模型,此模型反映了价格对需求与供给的影响,而需求与供给反过来又影响价格确定的过程,并说明了均衡价格是市场价格的最终变化趋势,并用蛛网理论对产量和价格的波动进行了分析。     

利润最大化条件下的商品定价

传统的商品定价理论包括两种类型，一种是基于企业的成本的加成定价法，一种是基于需求方的需求导向定价法。二者都有其合理和不足之处，如何将二者结合起来，是本文研究的出发点。本文提出的利润最大化条件下的商品定价模型就是二者原理的结合。     

需求价格弹性、销售收益和企业利润的关系研究：基于成本策略视角

将成本策略引入到需求价格弹性与利润的对应关系模型中,找到了企业在以保利润为目标时,临界需求价格弹性计算方法,开创性地分析出在降低变动成本策略下企业如何进行价格调整以及如何确定调整幅度,给出具有操作性的推论,对企业具有实际参考价值。     

利率对我国房价调控效应的实证研究

理论研究表明利率对房价的影响方向取决于房地产需求和供给对于利率变动反应的敏感性,但实践检验结论不一。为此,文章首先通过建立一个动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE),从理论上分析了利率对房价的影响,然后基于我国1998年1季度-2013年4季度的房价和利率数据,采用协整、向量误差纠正模型和基于VAR的脉冲响应、方差分解等手段实证检验了利率调控我国房价的数量效应。研究发现,长期中利率推动了我国房价的上涨,但脉冲响应和方差分解表明利率对房价上涨的推动作用有限;VECM估计表明短期中调整利率与房价向其长期均衡水平回归的动态机制不存在,房价会进一步偏离其均衡状态,这意味着短期中利率对房价的调控效应更差,房价会进一步上涨。     

The structure of optimal tariff rates in a large country with market power

We theoretically analyze the optimal tariff problem that arises in a large country with market power. By using a model with more than two traded goods, we derive (1) the condition for optimal import tariff rates to be ranked, and (2) the condition under which the optimum import tariff becomes uniform. These conditions are established in a three-good model and in an N-good model. The results are evaluated on the basis of compensated excess demand elasticity, and hence do not require information on income effects. I would like to thank Tatsuo Hatta, Makoto Okamura, Katsuhiko Suzuki and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments and suggestions.     

增加土地供应能抑制房价过快上涨吗?

政府抑制房价过快上涨所采用的常用的政策之一是增加土地供应的数量,但这一措施在现实中并不总是有效的。笔者构建了一个简化的房价与地价的决定模型,分析了政府的土地供应数量对房价和地价的影响。笔者认为,政府调控措施的效果依赖于具体的市场条件,特别是投机现象的严重程度和预期房价对地价变动的敏感程度。如果一个房地产市场中存在着比较严重的投机现象,则增加土地供应的政策有可能会进一步提高而不是降低房价。     

结构调整与需求空间

我国目前的经济增长已经进入了以消费为主导的发展阶段,能否有效地启动消费,扩展需求空间,成为推动新一轮经济增长的决定性因素,目前的消费不足和需求空间萎缩,既有供给结构方面的背景,也有需求结构方面的原因,要从实际出发,加大结构调整的力度,实现经济结构的升级和优化,为国民经济的发展创造需求空间。     

农产品价格上涨的经济学分析——以陕西省为例

农业的深层危机来源于农民和土地。工业化、城市化的发展使农村大量耕地被占用;伴随农村劳动力向城市的转移,农业劳动力老龄化、文化程度低、以女性为主的特点导致农业生产技术利用率低,单位面积产量低;土地质量的下降又进一步制约着农产品产量增长。然而,在农产品市场供给降低的同时,人口消费、饲料消耗、工业用粮的增长却使消费需求不断增加。农产品供给与需求的失衡是农产品价格不断上涨的根本原因。     

Short-run and long-run demand for financial assets A microeconomic perspective

One of the major issues associated with the short-run aggregate money demand is that the speed of adjustment has become very slow or even negative when the post-1973 periods are included in regressions. This implies that the long-run effects of income, wealth, or the opportunity costs on money demand may be so large that a small change in any of these variables would lead to unreasonably large fluctuations in asset demand. Using microeconomic data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, this study finds that the speeds at which individuals adjust their actual quantities of financial assets toward the desired levels are actually quite fast. In the long run, there is no indication that the desired quantities of monetary assets fluctuate widely whenever an explanatory variable is disturbed.     

扩内需背景下投资需求影响因素实证分析——以1979—2009年为例

投资需求是内需的重要组成部分。基于扩大内需的现实背景,运用1979—2009年的宏观数据,从国内市场角度实证分析了中国投资需求的主要影响因素。结果发现,从全国范围来看,只有产出对投资需求存在显著的正向影响,消费、物价水平和利率水平的影响却并不显著;而对以浙江省为代表的东部发达地区来说,除利率变量之外,产出、消费、物价水平都与投资需求存在显著的正相关关系;全国与浙江省投资需求影响因素的差异也在一定程度上反映了收入差距、市场化水平与投资结构等因素会对投资需求的形成产生潜在的间接影响。