The effects of high-speed rail on air passenger transport in China

This study investigates the effects of high-speed rail (HSR) on China’s air passenger transport from the perspective of airports. The difference-in-differences approach is used with unbalanced panel data of 206 airports over the period from 2006 to 2015. Our estimation results found that the negative effects of HSR on the growth rate of China’s air passengers is both statistically and economically significant. However, these adverse effects are not catastrophic.     

Reducing urban public transport costs by tendering lots: a panel data estimation

Allotment is, for urban authorities, a governance strategy to reduce public transport costs. It consists of dividing a network into several lots, so as to multiply the number of calls for tender. On the one hand, gains should be obtained by increasing competition for the market and reducing the costs of obtaining accurate information. On the other hand, cutting a network into several parts is also expected to have negative consequences on production costs, in terms of lower returns to scale. Many industry stakeholders believe that the latter element more than compensates for the former. In this article, we estimate a translog cost function with a panel of 141 French urban public transport networks. Our main conclusion is that scale economies are exhausted for a production of about 3 million vehicle-kilometres per year. Therefore, as far as returns to scale are concerned, allotment would reduce the costs of public transport services for the main cities of our sample. A second dividend for allotment is then presented and implies that the assumed trade-off between returns to scale and increased competition is irrelevant.     

Pricing strategies: who leads and who follows in the air and rail passenger markets in Italy

In this paper, we aim at empirically uncovering the existence of price leadership in the passenger transport market, whose oligopolistic structure facilitates the strategic interaction among companies, with price being one of the principal elements of competition. The strategic interaction is particularly favoured by the fact that prices are easily observable online by all competitors. The analysis focuses on selected Italian city-pair markets that differ from one another with respect to the degree of inter- and intra-modal competition and to the characteristics of the transport services provided. We exploit this heterogeneity to study transport operators’ strategic interactions in different competitive environments. We find evidence of the existence of price leadership, even though results differ across city-pair markets. In particular, it emerges that the incumbent operator, in either the air or the rail sector, always holds the role of leader.     

Diversification strategies and scope economies: evidence from a sample of Italian regional bus transport providers

A growing number of Local Public Transport (LPT) companies diversify their production lines by providing a large set of services. We investigate the cost structure of a sample of LPT companies operating in Italy and assess the presence and the magnitude of scope economies. We split the whole sample of firms according to their diversification strategy: private firms, mainly diversifying in competitive transport related services and public firms providing nontransport services in regulated markets. Scope economies appear sizeable for both groups but higher for firms pursuing a transport related strategy, suggesting caution in the multiutility development pursued by public LPT firms in Italy.     

The Ricardian equivalence hypothesis: evidence from Bangladesh

In this paper, a probabilistic discrete choice approach is used to examine the influence of economic and non-economic factors on the choice of medical specialty by new physicians. A two level nested logit model is estimated that relaxes the independence from irrelevant alternatives assumption, and allows for a potentially more realistic pattern of substitution across specialty choices. The results from this specification are compared to those obtained from joint and conditional logit models. The findings, which are relatively robust across models, indicate that economic incentives play an important role in the specialty choice process, in particular, expected hours worked and medical school indebtedness. Physician tastes for specialties also appear to have an important influence.     

Fiscal adjustment and the costs of public debt service: evidence from OECD countries

We use a panel of 21 OECD countries from 1970 to 2009 to investigate the effects of different fiscal adjustment strategies on long-term interest rates – a key fiscal indicator reflecting the costs of government debt service. As Europe’s sovereign debt crisis has shown, governments confronted with high deficits and rising debt may be forced to enact fiscal adjustments in order to avoid increasing market pressure and solvency problems. Over the last four decades, such measures taken by governments in OECD countries have varied in duration, size, composition and in their success to re-establish fiscal sustainability. We find that large and expenditure-based adjustments lead to substantially lower long-term interest rates. Small and revenue-based measures do not have an effect on interest rates. Financial markets thus only seem to value strict and decisive measures – a clear sign that the government’s pledge to cut the deficit is credible.     

Determinants of adaptation costs in procurement: an empirical estimation on Italian public works contracts

It is widely agreed that rules governing public procurement should be designed to achieve value for money. However, in the public works sector, ‘…?the good being procured is usually complex and hard to be exactly specified ex ante, …?[and] alterations to the original project might be needed after the contract is awarded. This may result in considerable discrepancies between the lowest winning bid and the actual costs that are incurred by the buyer’ (Bajari et al., 2006). There is now a wide body of literature focusing on cost escalation during the execution of contracts and their estimates reveal that it can be often quite large. This article is aimed at offering an empirical test of the determinants of adaptation costs in the public works procurement. Using a detailed data set on Italian public works contracts, we run an empirical analysis, grounded on the main conclusions reached in the literature, to test for the main drivers of adaptation costs.     

公共危机与地方财政运行机制的重构——基于财政机会主义的视角

近年来,我国频繁发生大型公共危机,严重影响了民众的生命财产安全与社会经济的可持续发展。我国公共危机防治的困境在一定程度上导源于地方财政的机会主义行为,而我国政府间激励约束机制不合理和财政管理体制不健全则是地方财政机会主义普遍存在的重要根源。从现实来看,地方财政机会主义的普遍存在不仅导致了公共危机的形成,而且加大了公共危机的治理难度,放大了其对社会经济运行的负面影响。为此,我国需要重构地方财政运行机制,建立有效的激励约束机制,合理界分政府间公共危机的防治责任,为地方政府配置有效的财力,并建立完善的地方财政监督机制。     

The effects of vertical and horizontal incentives on local tax efforts: evidence from China

Tax effort is a measure of a government’s effort to collect taxes. This study explores what impacts both vertical and horizontal incentives have on local governments’ tax efforts in China. For consistency with the literature, we first include typical economic and institutional factors in our analysis. We find that the effects of economic factors on local tax efforts are significant, but the effects of institutional factors tend to be weak. Fiscal decentralization, as a vertical incentive, has a significantly positive effect on tax efforts at the provincial level. Meanwhile, fiscal interaction, as a horizontal incentive, is also taken into account in a spatial specification to explain tax competition among local governments. The results show that local tax effort in China also depends on the horizontal incentive. Hence, to improve local tax effort, the central government should let the locals have more autonomy in collecting taxes and evaluate local tax effort by referring to tax collection in adjacent provinces simultaneously.     

Treatment patterns and predictors of costs among patients with migraine: evidence from the United States medical expenditure panel survey

Abstract

Aim: Within a treated migraine population, to evaluate if the sub-group meeting criteria for high disease-specific total costs is significantly different to the sub-group with medium and/or low-costs, and to identify the associated risk factors.

Methods: Data from the Household Component of Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS-HC, 2008–2012), a nationally representative survey of non-institutionalized civilians in the US, were analyzed. Key inclusion criteria were migraine diagnosis (ICD-9 code: 346.XX) and prescribed treatment for migraine. Patients were categorized into high (>top 10th percentile), low (<bottom 10th percentile), and medium (between high and low) cost sub-groups per migraine-specific total costs. Logistic regression models were applied to identify predictors of high vs medium and medium vs low-costs. Preventive eligibility, defined as (i) past/current use of migraine preventives or (ii) overuse of acute medications, was compared to non-preventive eligibility.

Results: Within the treated migraine cohort (n?=?1,735), the mean age was 39?years, 80% were female, and the majority were in the medium-cost sub-group (n?=?1,360) (low-cost n?=?190, high-cost n?=?195). Significant predictors of high vs medium-costs were low SF-12 Physical Composite Scores (OR?=?0.95; 95% CI?=?0.92–0.97), low SF-6D health utility index scores (OR?=?0.019; 95% CI?=?0.002–0.193), preventive eligibility-i (OR?=?0.019; 95% CI?=?0.002–0.193), and preventive-eligibility-ii (OR?=?3.10; 95% CI?=?1.62–5.91). Statistically significant (p?<?0.05) predictors of medium vs low-costs included anxiety, Fleishman score, preventive-eligible-i, and preventive-eligible-ii.

Conclusions: Among patients treated for migraine, distinct characteristics, including patient-functioning measures and comorbidities, are predictive of high vs medium-costs, and medium vs low-costs. Preventive eligibility is a predictor of being in the higher cost sub-groups; however, preventive treatments that improve functioning and reduce acute medication use have the potential to reduce migraine-specific costs.

Limitations: The results are limited to a population that is diagnosed and treated for migraine. Over-the-counter medication use, and migraine headache frequency and severity were not captured.     

The effect of monetary and fiscal credibility on public debt: empirical evidence from the Brazilian economy

This study relates to the literature regarding credibility effect on public debt for developing economies under inflation targeting. The novelty is the investigation of effects of both monetary and fiscal credibility on public debt and its management. The main idea is that high credibility might improve public debt management. With this purpose, this paper addresses empirical evidence based on the Brazilian experience. The findings denote that credibility is an important instrument to improve the public debt management under inflation targeting.     

Looking at the determinants of efficiency in banking: evidence from Italian mutual-cooperatives

Italy has experienced a restructuring and consolidation process in the banking industry since the 1990s that is expected to foster efficiency and competition. Despite the reforms, a peculiarity of the industry is the persistence of small mutual-cooperative banks (Banche di Credito Cooperativo, BCCs) active in narrow markets. The scope of this paper is to analyze the determinants of BCCs’ efficiency in the 2006–2011 period. In the first step of the study, a stochastic cost frontier is used to yield bank efficiency. Then the cost efficiency becomes the dependent variable of fixed and random effect models. The reference market of BCCs is the province (NUTS3). We find that BCC cost efficiency is positively affected by market concentration and demand density and inversely related to branching. Importantly, these results are robust to any sample restriction anchored to the distribution of efficiency. While the evidence regarding the credit quality is inconclusive for all BCCs, the sensitivity analysis shows that the risk in local markets is a source of BCC cost inefficiency.     

The causal effect of coalition governments on fiscal policies: evidence from a Regression Kink Design

Proportional election systems are widespread across countries and often lead to coalition governments. This creates interest in how the form of government (single-party or coalition governments) causally influences fiscal policies. It is difficult to estimate this causal effect empirically because the form of government is not randomly assigned to political units. I overcome this problem by using a Regression Kink Design which exploits that there is a slope change in the treatment probability at the 50% vote share of the strongest party. This method is applied to a large panel data set of German local governments. I find that contrary to the theoretical prediction, coalition governments significantly decrease expenditures.     

The impact of public employment on labour market performance: evidence from African countries

Using census data for Ghana, Mali and Mozambique, we study the long-term impact of public sector employment on local labour markets. We find that the public sector crowds out private employment and induces skilled workers to queue for a public job, thus increasing their unemployment rate. In addition, a growing public sector fosters employment in the tradable and nontradable sectors, remarkably for the unskilled, and the reallocation of unskilled workers away from agriculture.     

Efficiency and the quality of management and care: evidence from Japanese public hospitals

We study how the quality of hospital management and medical care both affect efficiency in Japanese local public hospitals. The efficiency is estimated by a stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) and is regressed against the quality scores in hospital accreditation by the Japan Council for Quality Health Care (JCQHC). We find that rule-based hospital management relates to high efficiency, while the suitable management of beds and supplies relates to low efficiency.