中国多维贫困的动态测算、结构分解与精准扶贫

贫困的多维福利剥夺程度高低和持续时间长短是近年来理论界关注的焦点,也是政府制定精准扶贫政策的重要理论依据.文章综合Alkire和Foster(2011)提出的多维贫困测算方法和Foster(2009)提出的长期贫困测算方法,构建了长期多维贫困指数和暂时多维贫困指数,实证分析了中国的贫困状况,并进行了城乡分解、指标分解和区域分解.结果发现:第一,样本家庭在多维视角下的长期贫困比例要高于暂时贫困,这与单一地从收入角度来分析长期贫困和暂时贫困的结论恰好相反;第二,对于所有类型的贫困而言,教育年限、医疗保险和健康的贡献度都排在前三位,但健康对于长期贫困人口的贡献度要明显高于暂时贫困;第三,总体看来,农村的多维贫困程度不仅高于城市,而且很多指标的贫困持续时间也要高于城市;第四,从四大区域看,经济发展水平较低的中西部地区,长期多维贫困程度要高于东部和东北部地区.     

多维贫困测量及述评简

贫困的测量是各国贫困研究关注的焦点,测量方法随着对贫困概念认识的深化不断变化。如何科学合理地对多维贫困指数进行筛选,成为多维贫困分析和测量的关键。研究发现,非公理标准下的多维贫困指数具有算法简单、操作方便等优点,但缺陷在于各维度间相关性较强且权重分配具有主观性;公理化标准下的多维贫困指数,虽然在指数维度加总问题上存在异议,但满足了大部分公理的要求,且测量结果更稳健。     

A New Approach to Unidimensional Poverty Analysis: Application to the Tunisian Case

Fuzzy conceptualization of privation has been a step closer to more realistic handling of poverty. However, fuzzy approaches to poverty are still grounded on parametric axioms. Moreover, construction of poverty lines within these approaches still relies on ad‐hoc methods. In this paper, we advance instead a fuzzy procedure based on the non‐parametric bootstrap method, allowing us to depict fuzzy unidimensional privation states with boundaries drawn spontaneously from data. Fuzzy non‐parametric measures of privation within each state as well as a collective fuzzy non‐parametric index of poverty are derived, along with their corresponding confidence intervals. The new approach is applied to the analysis of poverty in Tunisia in 2005.     

中国贫困的多维测度

本文认为,用单一的收入标准来了解贫困会低估个体真实的贫困状况,很难全面反映个体贫困的复杂性、脆弱性和持久性。本文基于Sen的能力方法,使用中国健康营养调查数据,利用模糊集方法测度中国的多维贫困状况。结论显示,相对于收入贫困,个体的教育、健康和医疗保险等贫困状况更为严重;多维贫困关于测度方法、权重较敏感,等权重下的AF多维贫困被其它方法与权重下的多维贫困严格占优,而在Betti＆Verma权重下的AF多维贫困中,则住房、卫生设施和健康对多维贫困的贡献更大;多维贫困在西部、农村及女性中依然更严重。     

“When Life Gives You Lemons”: Using Cross-Sectional Surveys to Identify Chronic Poverty in the Absence of Panel Data

At the core of poverty eradication is the need to eliminate that poverty that is persistent over time (chronic poverty). Unfortunately, traditional approaches to identifying chronic poverty require longitudinal data that is rarely available. In its absence, this paper proposes an alternative approach that only requires 1 year of cross-sectional data on monetary and non-monetary poverty. It puts forth two conjectures and contends that the combined profile of a household as both income poor and multidimensionally poor can be used as a proxy of that household being chronically income poor. To explore the viability of this approach, we use a probit model and longitudinal data for three Latin American countries to estimate households’ probabilities of remaining in income poverty based on their past income and multidimensional poverty statuses. We find empirical support for the approach that is significant, consistent across countries, and robust to various controls and periods of analysis.     

四省藏区多维贫困空间分异及基层能力建设

四省藏区作为我国深度贫困地区的重要组成部分是精准扶贫精准脱贫中后程的重点和难点。基于2014年采集的“十二五”期间全国“整村推进”项目村基础数据,借鉴A-F多维贫困测度方法,对四省藏区村域多维贫困状况进行测度分解,并基于拓展的能力视角探讨了村级组织能力禀赋对四省藏区村域多维贫困状况的差异化缓解作用。结果发现:除经济贫困之外,四省藏区还遭受基础教育和生产生活条件等维度的多维贫困,且存在空间异质性,云南和青海藏区是四省藏区中多维贫困问题最严重的区域;生活水平条件和村域发展资本维度对四省藏区的多维贫困指数贡献率最高;基层组织能力禀赋会显著影响四省藏区村域的多维贫困状况、缩小地区差距,在深度贫困地区更加显著。根据研究结论,从覆盖基础教育设施、改善生产生活条件、提高基层组织能力建设三方面为深度贫困地区脱贫攻坚提供政策参考。     

Fuzzy Chronic Poverty: A Proposed Response to Measurement Error for Intertemporal Poverty Measurement

A number of chronic poverty measures are now empirically applied to quantify the prevalence and intensity of chronic poverty, vis‐à‐vis transient experiences, using panel data. Welfare trajectories over time are assessed in order to identify the chronically poor and distinguish them from the non‐poor, or the transiently poor, and assess the extent and intensity of intertemporal poverty. We examine the implications of measurement error in the welfare outcome for some popular discontinuous chronic poverty measures, and propose corrections to these measures that seeks to minimize the consequences of measurement error. The approach is based on a novel criterion for the identification of chronic poverty that draws on fuzzy set theory. We illustrate the empirical relevance of the approach with a panel dataset from rural Ethiopia and some simulations.     

Differentiating Between Dimensionality and Duration in Multidimensional Measures of Poverty: Methodology with an Application to China

We develop a multidimensional poverty measure that is sensitive to the within‐individual distribution of deprivations across dimensions and time. Our measure combines features from a static multidimensional measure (Alkire and Foster, 2011a ) and a time‐dependent unidimensional measure (Foster, 2009 ). The proposed measure separately identifies—and can therefore be decomposed according to—the proportion of the poverty score attributable to: (i) the concentration of deprivations within periods; (ii) the concentration of deprivations within dimensions. In doing so it allows for a poverty ranking that is robust to assumptions about the trade‐off between the two components. Previous measures have not allowed for the features proposed here due to the inability to calculate the exact contribution of each dimension to overall poverty. We overcome this by adapting to our measure the Shapley decomposition proposed in Shorrocks ( 2013 ) (based on Shapley, 1953 ). The measure is applied to data from China, 2000‐2011.     

中国农村居民贫困测度研究——基于山西的调查分析

运用Atkinson（1987）单维贫困测量与Alkire和Foster（2008）多维贫困测量相结合的方法,对山西农村居民贫困情况进行了测度。实证结果表明：从单维视角看,山西农村贫困主要体现在饮用水、消费、收入三个方面,全省三个主要贫困区存在差异;从多维视角来看,山西省农村居民存在多维贫困现象,考虑的贫困维度越多,贫困程度越严重。东部太行山区与北部高寒冷凉区的饮用水问题也比较严重,北部高寒冷凉区相比其他两个地区其教育问题较为突出,北部高寒冷凉区与西部吕梁山区的住房问题也需要关注。因此,山西今后要从多维度识别和瞄准贫困,针对地区贫困特点予以扶持。     

经济增长、产业结构与农村减贫——基于省际面板数据的实证分析

在经济增长与减贫关系问题上,大量的实证研究仅仅用经济增长以及伴随增长过程的收入分配状态作为解释变量,其结论与现实的契合性不够稳定。通过在计量模型中加入产业结构、农业生产条件、农业扶贫与发展政策等关键性的中间变量,并采用跨越"八七扶贫攻坚"期间和新世纪"农村扶贫开发"两个发展时期的省际面板数据,实证分析表明经济增长在农村减贫中具有重要地位,城乡收入差距扩大对农村减贫具有显著的负效应。与现有的大量实证研究结论不同,本研究表明不同产业在经济发展的不同阶段对农村减贫的影响是不同的,三次产业发展对农村贫困的影响发生了一定程度的逆转。因此,新时期反贫困战略也应做出相应的调整。     

Multidimensional Poverty and Material Deprivation with Discrete Data

We propose a characterization of a popular index of multidimensional poverty which, as a special case, generates a measure of material deprivation. This index is the weighted sum of the functioning failures. The important feature of the variables that may be relevant for poverty assessments is that they are discrete in nature. Thus, poverty measures based on continuous variables are not suitable in this setting and the assumption of a discrete domain is mandatory. We apply the measure to European Union member states where the concept of material deprivation was initiated and illustrate how its recommendations differ from those obtained from poverty measures based exclusively on income considerations.     

Rethinking multidimensional poverty through a multi-criteria analysis

The risk of poverty or social exclusion constitutes the pivotal multidimensional indicator of living conditions in the European Union. Nevertheless, it only reports the proportion of individuals at risk and disregards the depth of poverty. The indicator therefore overlooks situations of possible vulnerable groups just above the threshold and is not sensitive to all dimensions in which the individual is at risk. In this paper we propose an alternative multi-criteria based approach that overcomes these problems. Our measure captures information about the level of achievement in each dimension of all persons along the distribution and evaluates to what extent the concurrence of multiple deprivations reinforces their disadvantage. This approach permits diverse ways of aggregation with different degrees of substitutability among the achievements of each dimension according to context-specific social preferences. We illustrate our approach with an empirical analysis of 28 countries using the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions database for 2016. The results reveal that work intensity may be regarded as the most determining factor in analyses of multidimensional poverty across European countries. Our measures unmask how countries with similar proportions of individuals at risk of poverty or social exclusion hide very different conditions of multidimensional poverty and highlight the variety of socioeconomic realities existing behind the dichotomy imposed by the usual ‘at risk of poverty or social exclusion’ rate.     

中国农村人口贫困变动研究——基于多维脱贫指数测度

本文通过多维贫困识别方法构建相应指数，提出了在返贫和脱贫不同方向上对多维贫困的变动进行分解的思路。同时，用2010—2014年中国家庭追踪调查数据对中国农村人口多维贫困的变动进行了分解，得出以下结论：第一，收入依然是农村人口多维贫困的主要维度，但在改善收入贫困的同时应该防范健康维度返贫的风险。第二，农村人口的多维贫困状况在不断改善，但是由于返贫的影响，脱贫的效果受到了较大削弱，因此在注重脱贫的同时，不应忽视返贫的风险。第三，持续贫困人口贫困状况虽然后来有所改善，但是2012年的恶化状况提示我们对于暂时未能脱贫的人口，还需要采取措施缓解其贫困状况。     

Gender and Poverty Risk in Europe

This study advances research on the structural dimension in the predominantly individual-oriented field of poverty studies by evaluating to what extent cross-national differences in population and structural characteristics can explain the differences in poverty outcomes by gender. To facilitate an approach that integrates individual and structural context dimensions, the paper takes advantage of multilevel techniques to test gender differences in the risk of being poor, entering into poverty, and exiting from poverty among seventeen European countries. The analysis covers single-adult households, drawing on data from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) for the years 2007–8. The study concludes that structural effects, such as welfare state policies, labor market characteristics, level of inequality, and the level of women's empowerment in the country, seem to be more relevant than individual effects in explaining differences in the gender poverty gap among countries.     

Poverty, Income Distribution and Policy Making

This paper deals with the key distributional issues arising from the regulation of the environment and the management of natural resources. The paper is divided into a section dealing with poverty and a section dealing with broader income distribution effects. Although there is much discussion of the linkages of poverty to environmental degradation, empirical studies establishing these linkages are few. The relationship is critically dependent on the institutional structures in the countries concerned and how they respond to changing environmental pressures. On the broader distributional impacts, the papers focusses on the analysis of ganiers and losers from environmental regulations. The analysis is complex because the direct incidence is not the same as the final incidence. Much of the work has looked only at the former. In addition, the political economy of regulation needs to pay greater attention to impacts on key and vulnerable groups; more so than can be done by looking at broad income bands.     

Poverty Intensity in Australia

Even though poverty indices with axiomatically sound properties have been advocated for several decades, most empirical studies of poverty in Australia and elsewhere continue to use the crude, but easily understood, head-count ratio. The difficulty of interpreting the axiomatically more desirable indices is a major reason why their use has been resisted in applied poverty measurement. This paper demonstrates how the more sophisticated poverty indices can be converted into a form that is readily interpreted as a measure of poverty intensity of a group, relative to the population to which the group belongs. The resulting poverty-intensity index is easy to understand and it retains the axiomatic properties of the poverty index on which it is based. We apply the method to Australian data. Poverty measures reported previously in the literature are converted into measures of poverty intensity and interpreted accordingly. We also calculate and interpret some new measures of poverty and poverty intensity using the 1996–97 Income and Housing Costs Survey, Australia (Australian Bureau of Statistics 1997). It is hoped our procedure will lead to wider use of poverty indices that are theoretically superior to the head-count ratio.     

INCOME POVERTY AND MULTIDIMENSIONAL DEPRIVATION: LESSONS FROM CROSS‐REGIONAL ANALYSIS

The study of multidimensional deprivation has become one of the most relevant lines of research in the analysis of low‐income households. The search for significant relationships between multidimensional deprivation and income poverty has been a central issue and most empirical studies have found a very weak link. This paper aims at examining the possibility of an aggregation bias in national‐level studies, which could conceal disparities between regions. As regional differences and decentralization processes stand out in Spain as compared to other OECD countries, we focus the analysis on this country. Latent class models are used to define deprivation indices using the Spanish EU‐SILC. The results seem to show that the absence of significant relationships between both phenomena still holds at a regional level. The decomposition methods used in the paper show that it might be due to some regional singularities in some determining factors of income and multidimensional poverty.     

自生能力与巩固脱贫成果——后扶贫时代的思考

我国已经如期实现了精准脱贫的目标,成功按期消除了绝对贫困,这同时意味着我国进入了后扶贫时代.如何巩固深度贫困地区和人口的扶贫成果,防止出现规模性退化或返贫,应当是后扶贫时代需要深入思考和解决的重大课题.经验证明,当贫困地区和贫困人口按标准成功摆脱贫困以后,会出现一定的退化现象,从而需要有一个脱贫成果的巩固期.特别是那些...     

The Gendered Nature of Poverty in the EU: Individualized versus Collective Poverty Measures

Due to the adoption of the household as a unit of analysis, researchers have failed to identify accurate measures of women's income poverty. This study proposes an individualized measure of European poverty to highlight gender differences in the economic crisis. Employing data from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) for the period 2007–12, it compares the household-based at-risk-of-poverty rate (ARPR) and the individualized financial dependency rate (FDR). The study shows that the gender gap in poverty in Europe is considerably higher when computed through FDR. Indeed, since the ARPR constitutes a proxy of the household's average conditions, it levels down gender inequalities within the household and also variations in individuals’ incomes over time. Only more detailed data collection on intrahousehold resource sharing will possibly allow the development of more precise and realistic indicators of women's and men's risks of poverty and financial dependency.