Revisiting the Impact of Consumption Growth and Inequality on Poverty in Indonesia during Decentralisation

This article analyses the consumption growth elasticity and inequality elasticity of poverty in Indonesia, with a particular focus on the decentralisation period. Using provincial panel data, we show that the effectiveness of growth in alleviating poverty across provinces was greater during decentralisation—that is, between 2002 and 2010—than at any other point since 1984. The growth elasticity of poverty since 2002 is estimated to have been –2.46, which means that a 10% increase in average consumption per capita would have reduced the poverty rate by almost 25%. However, we also find that rising income inequality negated a quarter to a third of the 5.7-percentage-point reduction in the headcount poverty rate. This increasing inequality has contributed to a lower level of pro-poor growth than that maintained in Indonesia before decentralisation.     

Poverty and Vulnerability in Indonesia Before and After the Economic Crisis

It is well known that the economic crisis in Indonesia has caused the poverty rate to increase significantly. The present study finds, not only that the poverty rate increased significantly, but also that much of the increase was due to a large increase in the chronic poor category (i.e. the poor who have expected consumption below the poverty line and most likely will stay poor in the near future). Furthermore, the present study also finds that the proportion of households that have high vulnerability to poverty has more than doubled since the economic crisis. As a result, the proportion of the total vulnerable group (the current poor plus the high vulnerability group) has jumped from less than one-fifth of the population before the crisis to more than one-third after the crisis.     

Assessing Poverty Trends in Indonesia by International Poverty Lines

Indonesia has made well-documented and drastic progress in raising average incomes and reducing poverty. This article adds to the literature by providing a complementary perspective of poverty between 1984 and 2011. We discuss the evolution of poverty in Indonesia using international poverty lines—$1.25 per person per day (in 2005 purchasing power parity dollars) and $2.00 per day, and we add $10.00 per day. We generate estimates of poverty since 1984 and make projections based on various trends in growth and inequality. We find that Indonesia has the potential to become a high-income country by around 2025 and end $1.25-per-day and $2.00-perday poverty by 2030, but this will require strong economic growth and favourable changes in distribution. Looking ahead, the end of poverty in Indonesia may mean that a large proportion of the population will remain vulnerable to poverty for some time to come, suggesting that public policy priorities will need to balance insurance and risk-management mechanisms with more ‘traditional’ poverty policy.     

Evolution of Poverty During the Crisis in Indonesia

The economic crisis caused a clear deterioration in the welfare of the Indonesian people. In this paper, we examine the appropriate method to compare the change in poverty rates over time. We then piece together a consistent series of estimates of poverty rates during the crisis from various sources, covering a period from February 1996 to February 2002. The reconciliation of these various estimates paints a very reasonable picture and neatly tracks events. The poverty rate increased from the lowest point of approximately 15% at the onset of the crisis in the middle of 1997 to the highest point of approximately 33% nearing the end of 1998. This maximum increase in poverty rate during the crisis of 18 percentage points implies that approximately 36 million additional people were pushed into absolute poverty due to the crisis. After the peak point, the poverty rate started to decline again and reached the pre-crisis level of approximately 15% at the end of 1999, implying that the lost time in poverty reduction due to the crisis was approximately 2.5years. However, the poverty rate after this point appears to have fluctuated. During 2001 and early 2002, poverty was on the rise again.     

Economic growth and poverty reduction in Indonesia before and after the asian financial crisis

This paper assesses the relationship between poverty reduction and economic growth in Indonesia before and after the Asian financial crisis. The annual rate of poverty reduction slowed significantly in the post-crisis period. However, the trend in the growth elasticity of poverty indicates that the power of each percentage point of economic growth to reduce poverty did not change much between the two periods. In both, service sector growth made the largest contribution to poverty reduction in both rural and urban areas. Industrial sector growth largely became irrelevant for poverty reduction in the post-crisis period even though the sector contributed the second-largest share of GDP. Agricultural sector growth, mean-while, remained important, but in rural areas only. The findings suggest the need to formulate an effective strategy to promote sectoral growth in order to speed up the pace of poverty reduction.     

On Measuring Energy Poverty in Indian Households

The relationship between energy and poverty is obvious and goes both ways. Recognizing this, this paper provides a short overview of different approaches to measuring energy poverty. It then presents a novel two-dimensional measure of energy poverty and energy distribution that combines the elements of access to different energy types and quantity of energy consumed. An assessment of the extent of energy poverty and changes in energy distribution pattern are analyzed by applying this measure to Indian household survey data for 1983–2000. The analysis shows a significant reduction in the level of energy poverty and a rapidly developing subcontinent. The new measure is a good complement to conventional monetary measures and is general enough to be applied to other developing countries.     

我国社会保障财政支出规模研究

对社会保障支出占财政支出的最优比例进行估算具有重大的理论和现实意义。学术界已对财政支出及支出结构的最优比例进行过不少探索,文章以巴罗的内生增长理论为基础,通过构建计量经济模型,对目前经济条件下社会保障支出占财政支出的最优比重进行了估算,并与我国当前实际的支出规模相比较,最后得出我国当前社会保障财政支出规模还没有达到最优,应该合理地增加社会保障财政支出以促进经济社会的发展的结论。     

经济全球化对贫困影响的争论及原因研究综述

目前关于经济全球化对贫困影响的文献相当多,但研究的结果却大不相同：有学者认为全球化有益于缓解贫困,有学者则认为全球化将不利于贫困人口。即使有学者利用经验检验两者之间的关系,也没有得出一致的结论。而细观这些文献,我们会发现导致争论的原因主要来源三个方面：贫困概念定义的模糊,度量方法的不同以及理论模型的差异。     

地方财政支出减贫效应的省际差异比较--基于中部五省经验数据的分析

降低乃至消除贫困是世界各国政府面临的重大难题之一,部分地方财政支出项目能够有效地降低或消除贫困问题的发生。文章构建了一个分析由农林水事务、教育、医疗卫生与社会保障和就业支出四项财政支出分量构成的财政支出总量及各财政支出分量与贫困减缓之间关系的理论框架,在此基础上采用中部5省1994-2013年的省级数据,通过总量回归模型与分量回归模型分别对各省财政支出总量与支出分量的减贫效应进行实证检验,并对地方财政支出减贫效应的省际差异进行了比较,以期对地方政府优化财政支出结构,提高财政资源利用效率,利用财政支出减少贫困具有一定的指导意义。     

精准扶贫框架下的城市贫困治理

贫困问题是全球面临的重大难题,亦是古今中外治国理政的大事。我国为响应全球治理贫困的需求,同时为化解国内严峻的贫困形势,2013年在农村地区开始实行"精准扶贫"战略,实践取得了巨大成功。反观城市贫困人口的数量却一直居高不下,不仅缺乏精准化救助理念与形式,而且在治理主体与体系方面也缺少精准性,为实现城市与乡村的协调发展,也为实现共同富裕的目标,在分析精准扶贫对城市反贫困的契合基础上,欲运用精准扶贫作为指导,从救助理念、形式、主体、体系这四个方面进行精准化设计,实现精准性城市贫困治理。     

财政支出竞争对经济影响的门限效应研究——基于中国省级面板数据的检验

文章通过总结前人研究成果,提出财政支出竞争对经济影响的门限理论假说,并基于1997-2013年中国各省份的现实数据,利用门限面板模型进行实证检验。结果表明,财政支出竞争对经济的影响存在显著的门限效应,当地方经济发展处于较低水平时,财政支出竞争的负效应高于正效应,对经济增长显示出一定的抵制作用;当地方经济发展处于中、高水平时,财政支出竞争的正效应大于负效应,有利于经济增长。     

Emerging Urban Poverty and Effects of the Dibao Program on Alleviating Poverty in China

The present paper describes the current urban poverty situation,examines the factors affecting the probability of a household being in poverty and investigates how the urban minimum living standard guarantee (dibao) program helps poor people to get out of poverty. The targeting efficiency of the urban dibao program is discussed. The present study finds that the poverty rate of households with unemployed workers is much higher than that of households without unemployed workers. The urban dibao program is helpful in reducing poverty rates,but it does not reduce poverty rates too much. The government should place emphasis on helping laid-off and unemployed workers to become reemployed. The most urgent problem for the dibao program is improving the efficiency of targeting.     

Feeling Richer or Poorer than Others: A Cross‐section and Panel Analysis of Subjective Economic Status in Indonesia*

This paper examines what makes us feel richer or poorer than others. It investigates cross‐sectional and longitudinal determinants of individuals’ subjective economic status in Indonesia. Using two waves of Indonesian Family Life Surveys, 1997 and 2000, I show that individuals’ perceptions of where they are on the economic scale are more dependent on a number of socioeconomic characteristics, as well as their attitudes towards their future economic status, than their current spending capacities would suggest. I also find significant, albeit weaker, expenditure and income effects on individuals’ subjective economic status once individual fixed effects are controlled for in the regression.     

中国农村产业化扶贫模式探讨

产业化扶贫是近年来全国贫困地区正在实践的一种新型扶贫方式。文章对产业化扶贫开发中的五种模式进行了梳理,并对每种模式的成功案例进行了探讨,最后指出了实施产业化扶贫应注意的几个问题。     

冀西北贫困成因及完善补偿机制的研究——基于京张生态等合作中问题的调查分析

冀西北是河北省最为贫困的地区,在全国范围内贫困县较为集中的地区之一,新中国成立后,特殊的地理位置、军事功能和生态功能不断显现,而经济功能在不断弱化,贫困是其必然结果。贫困将严重地影响到生态功能的正常发挥。文章基于京张生态等合作中存在的问题,分析出进一步合作基础和激励机制的缺失,完善相应的补偿机制：中央政府给予税收等优惠政策,同时应该建立中央政府和京张间转移支付制度,以形成发挥生态功能的坚实基础和有效的激励机制。