Regional infrastructure and firm investment: theory and empirical evidence for Italy

The authors model the channels through which public expenditure on infrastructure influences firm value and shapes its investment decisions via both adjustment costs and marginal profitability of capital. The authors test these hypotheses using a large panel of Italian firms. Empirical results show that infrastructure interacts with revenues and costs in shaping firm??s capital profitability and influences its adjustment costs. Finally, the authors find that infrastructure expenditure contributes to the reduction of the economic gap between the North and the South of Italy. These effects vary across regions and sectors.     

Infrastructure: What Is Needed and How Do We Pay for It?

Claims of an infrastructure crisis lack definition, and fail to provide evidence that investment projects that would generate an economic return, including both private and social benefits, are not being funded. This paper shows how setting economic prices for energy, water, transport and communications will provide a better guide to the optimal amount of future infrastructure investment than the likely responses by proponents of an alleged infrastructure crisis.     

Where can obesity management policy make the largest impact? Evaluating sub-populations through a microsimulation approach

Background: There is a critical need to focus limited resources on sub-groups of patients with obesity where we expect the largest return on investment. This paper identifies patient sub-groups where an investment may result in larger positive economic and health outcomes.

Methods: The baseline population with obesity was derived from a public survey database and divided into sub-populations defined by demographics and disease status. In 2016, a validated model was used to simulate the incidence of diabetes, absenteeism, and direct medical cost in five care settings. Research findings were derived from the difference in population outcomes with and without weight loss over 15 years. Modeled weight loss scenarios included initial 5% or 12% reduction in body mass index followed by a gradual weight regain. Additional simulations were conducted to show alternative outcomes from different time courses and maintenance scenarios.

Results: Univariate analyses showed that age 45–64, pre-diabetes, female, or obesity class III are independently predictive of larger savings. After considering the correlation between these factors, multivariate analyses projected young females with obesity class I as the optimal sub-group to control obesity-related medical expenditures. In contrast, the population aged 20–35 with obesity class III will yield the best health outcomes. Also, the sub-group aged 45–54 with obesity class I will produce the biggest productivity improvement. Each additional year of weight loss maintained showed increased financial benefits.

Conclusions: This paper studied the heterogeneity between many sub-populations affected by obesity and recommended different priorities for decision-makers in economic, productivity, and health realms.     

A model-based analysis of the impact of Cohesion Policy expenditure 2000–06: Simulations with the QUEST III endogenous R&D model

More than a third of the EU budget is devoted to Cohesion Policy with the objective to foster economic and social cohesion in the European Union. Large-scale fiscal transfers are used to support investment in infrastructure, R&D and human capital. This paper provides a model-based assessment of the potential macroeconomic impact of these fiscal transfers using a DSGE model with semi-endogenous growth (Jones, 1995) and endogenous human capital accumulation. The simulations show the potential benefits of Structural Funds with significant output gains in the long run due to sizeable productivity improvements.     

Potential economic reforms in North Korea: a dynamic general equilibrium model

We use a dynamic general equilibrium model to examine hypothetical market reforms in North Korea. We model partial reform, in which producers choose capital allocations across sectors, with the government still fixing total capital. We also consider two full market reform scenarios. In one, public infrastructure investment remains unchanged, while, in the other, it increases substantially. In all scenarios, we assume a closed economy and a constant military size. Our simulations show little hope for the North Korean economy without boosting infrastructure. Although all of the reforms raise consumption, only significant increases in infrastructure investment bring positive economic growth.     

A methodological framework to address gaps in the evidence on infrastructure impacts: the case of an Indian railway project evaluation

ABSTRACT

Infrastructure is a key area of public investment and development cooperation, and can be seen as a critical enabler of trade and integration. Stakeholders increasingly demand evidence on the effectiveness of investments in infrastructure such as railways, in part because these investments typically lock in development patterns for decades. In this article we take stock of the main findings, methodological approaches, gaps and caveats of the current literature with a focus on railways. Based on this analysis, we present a methodology for an impact evaluation framework which builds on existing knowledge and addresses some of these shortcomings. Beyond the dearth of empirical evidence on the socio-economic and environmental impacts of infrastructure, we discuss critiques of the currently prevalent methodological toolbox. Using a real-world railway project in India, the Konkan Railway, we exemplify how a rigorous quantitative impact assessment can integrate inter-disciplinary and mixed-methods features to address these issues. Specifically, we apply different quasi-experimental techniques on the level of intermediate and ultimate outcome and impact indicators, using census, survey and satellite data and information from document analyses, interviews and focus group discussions. We draw on insights from economics, sociology, engineering and geography in making sense of large infrastructure projects and their impacts.     

Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Copper Mining on Peru’s Recent Economic Growth

Peru is the second-largest producer and exporter of copper in the world. This paper proposes a novel approach to assess short-run and long-run effects of copper on Peru’s recent economic growth. Annual data over the 2014–2018 period were used to calculate a Mining Contribution Index (MCI). An institutional quality indicator of the World Competitiveness Index of the World Economic Forum measured the dependence of Peruvian economic growth on mining and the quality of its institutions, respectively. Then, monthly data during the period 2005–2018 were used to run vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction (VEC) models to measure copper’s effects on the country’s economy over time. VAR-VEC models included copper production, exports, international price, investment, taxes paid by producing companies, and Peru’s gross domestic product (GDP). Stationarity and causality of variables were verified with the Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Granger tests, respectively. Due to the presence of non-stationary variables, a VEC model was implemented to forecast short- and long-run effects. The main results show that real GDP responds to copper output and other related explanatory variables differently, depending upon the instrument applied. Peruvian GDP has increased dependence on copper mining. The quality of its institutions could explain the presence of Dutch Disease or resource curse theory. Short- and long-run effects of copper output on GDP were generally statistically non-significant. GDP was statistically significant in relation to other mining variables, such as copper exports and the international price of copper.

     

The effects of fiscal consolidations on the composition of government spending

ABSTRACT

In response to increasing debt paths, governments often implement fiscal consolidation programs. This paper studies the impact of these programs on the composition of government spending. System-GMM estimations performed on a sample of 53 developed and emerging countries over 1980–2011 reveal that fiscal consolidations significantly reduce the government investment-to-consumption ratio, i.e. a composition effect. Robust to a wide set of tests, including when using the narrative approach to identify fiscal consolidations, this significantly stronger contraction of government investment with respect to government consumption is at work particularly when debt is high and in the low phase of the economic cycle. Therefore, in such contexts, fiscal consolidations aimed at short-run stabilization may hurt the economy in the long-run through their detrimental effect on public investment, calling for a reflection upon how they could be re-designed to allow avoiding such undesirable consequences.     

Improving Connectivity in Indonesia: The Challenges of Better Infrastructure,Better Regulations,and Better Coordination

This paper presents and discusses the main challenges that an archipelago like Indonesia is facing in improving its connectivity. Distinguishing between intra‐island, inter‐island, and international connectivity is essential in order to understand the nature of the challenges and causes behind the bottlenecks. High domestic shipping costs are identified as one key challenge. The Government of Indonesia has identified improved connectivity as a key issue in promoting economic growth, especially in the manufacturing sector, now that Indonesia can no longer rely on commodities as a driver of growth. Better infrastructure, regulations, and coordination among stakeholders are crucial components in promoting improved connectivity for manufacturing growth. Promoting investment in infrastructure is necessary, including both hard and soft infrastructure. However, Indonesian experience highlights that without regulatory reform and improved policy coordination, infrastructure investment will continue to lag behind. There is a need for an improved and empowered governance structure to turn investment plans into reality.     

基础设施对中国经济增长的影响及机制研究*——基于扩展的Barro增长模型

基础设施既可以作为特殊的资本存量直接促进经济增长，又可以通过促进投资和劳动力增加（增加生产要素数量）以及提高存量资本和劳动力的边际生产率（提高生产要素效率）间接促进经济增长。本文构建了一个扩展的Barro经济增长模型，并利用中国1992—2016年省级面板数据和中介效应模型对两条机制进行实证检验。结果发现：基础设施对经济增长具有促进作用，但对交通、能源、通信三类基础设施的影响以及在2008年金融危机前后均表现出异质性。直接效应呈动态上升趋势，中介效应则逐渐下降。针对异质性的原因，本文进一步采用非线性模型进行检验。结果表明我国基础设施对经济增长的促进作用主要表现为规模扩张型、数量型或外延型，而不是以质量型和内涵型为主的形式。能源和通信基础设施对经济增长的总效应具有规模效应，交通基础设施的规模效应不显著，但也对经济增长具有持续促进作用。这说明目前我国三类基础设施仍然具有较大投资潜力。其中的关键是要通过基础设施建设提高生产要素效率。     

基础设施对中国经济增长的影响及机制研究*——基于扩展的Barro增长模型

基础设施既可以作为特殊的资本存量直接促进经济增长，又可以通过促进投资和劳动力增加（增加生产要素数量）以及提高存量资本和劳动力的边际生产率（提高生产要素效率）间接促进经济增长。本文构建了一个扩展的Barro经济增长模型，并利用中国1992—2016年省级面板数据和中介效应模型对两条机制进行实证检验。结果发现：基础设施对经济增长具有促进作用，但对交通、能源、通信三类基础设施的影响以及在2008年金融危机前后均表现出异质性。直接效应呈动态上升趋势，中介效应则逐渐下降。针对异质性的原因，本文进一步采用非线性模型进行检验。结果表明我国基础设施对经济增长的促进作用主要表现为规模扩张型、数量型或外延型，而不是以质量型和内涵型为主的形式。能源和通信基础设施对经济增长的总效应具有规模效应，交通基础设施的规模效应不显著，但也对经济增长具有持续促进作用。这说明目前我国三类基础设施仍然具有较大投资潜力。其中的关键是要通过基础设施建设提高生产要素效率。     

Technology transfer: economic factors that influence transferor and transferee’s choice*

ABSTRACT

This research presents itself as one of the earliest studies to consider economic factors that influence decision making in an international technology transfer while considering the perspectives of the transferor and transferee individually. Unlike previous studies, this study takes a multi-variable analysis approach in considering these factors through the development of a common analytical framework that can be applied to similar studies. The methodology used herein is quantitative and involves a multiple regression analysis, which combines variables examined unilaterally in earlier studies. The results show that economic factors that influence a transferor’s choice of a transferee include inflation rate, currency exchange rate, and foreign direct investment while in the converse relationship, the results prove that in addition to inflation rate, currency exchange rate, and foreign direct investment, official development assistance was also relevant.     

基础设施投资对社会其他部门投资影响效应

基础设施投资在经济发展中起着十分重要的作用,直接影响着经济发展的速度和质量。文章通过建立计量模型,运用1993—2003我国30个省市(自治区)的面板数据,研究了我国基础设施投资对社会其他部门投资的影响。结果发现基础设施投资对社会其他部门投资具有明显的挤入效应,其中西部地区最大,中部地区次之,东部地区最小。最后提出政策建议:提高财政支出效率,加快基础设施领域改革,加快西部地区基础设施建设。     

On the Empirics of Market Integration in ECOWAS

Abstract

This paper uses the gravity model to investigate the market implications of unilateral and preferential economic reforms in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The results show that the traditional explanatory variables of the gravity model are the significant determinants of trade flows in the ECOWAS region, and that belonging to this grouping fosters trade. Hence policy advice should focus on strengthening these factors, which are likely to enhance the possibility of greater intra‐regional trade. This can contribute to drawing foreign direct investment to the region, enhancing policy credibility, and bringing greater economic and political stability.     

Chinese investment in Australian infrastructure assets: accounting for local public preferences

Chinese investment in Australian infrastructure assets can bring economic benefits for both countries. However, it can also create domestic political challenges. This is because Australian public support for foreign investment in infrastructure is limited. In order to better inform public policy and firm decision-making in both China and Australia, this paper undertakes a choice modelling analysis of original survey data to determine the drivers of local public preferences. The Australian public is found to be more concerned by the share of foreign ownership an investment will bring rather than the fact it is from China. Accounting for these preferences, such as through the recruitment of local partner companies, will facilitate Chinese investment in Australian infrastructure, and potentially, greater bilateral engagement on the Belt and Road Initiative. The Australian case might also offer wider lessons for Chinese investment in infrastructure assets abroad.     

交通基础设施投资对中国经济增长影响的分析

1978—2012年中国国内生产总值(GDP)年均增长超过9%,被世界称为"中国奇迹",超前发展的基础设施是中国实现奇迹不容忽视的重要因素。利用1978—2011年数据研究交通基础设施投资对中国经济增长的作用,结果表明,交通基础设施与经济增长存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,基础设施投资经济增长存在正溢出效应。     

The Nature of China's Economic Growth in the Past Two Decades

The Chinese economy has grown at record rates since the start of the market-oriented reforms in 1978. Motivated by the Asian productivity debate, this article provides an assessment of the role of total factor productivity in China's economic growth in the past two decades. We identify four main factors in the productivity growth: efficiency gain at the micro level; improvement in resource allocation; diffusion of technology through foreign direct investment; and improvement in infrastructure. We also argue that further state-owned enterprise and banking reforms, an emerging entrepreneurial class and greater research and development efforts are additional driving forces for the medium to long-term total factor productivity growth in China.     

Regional Disparities in Transition Economies: A Typology for East Germany and Poland

This article uses cluster analysis to construct a typology of regions for East Germany and Poland on the basis of indicators for economic capability and their determinants. The results show that, in both countries, the most capable regions are those with or in the vicinity of the largest agglomerations. Besides high income, low unemployment and population gains from migration, these regions have comparatively large stocks of qualified labour and participate in technical progress. Two regional types in particular could be established as problematic: (1) rural regions peripheral to the agglomerations and (2) old industrialised regions. Indicators of investment are not very well suited to indicating the future economic capability of regions under the circumstances of transformation.     

MODELING AND MEASURING THE ECONOMIC ROLES OF TECHNOLOGY INFRASTRUCTURE

Designing and managing an economy's technology infrastructure requires both accurate economic models and data to drive them. Previous models treat technology as a homogeneous entity, thereby precluding assessing investment barriers affecting infrastructure elements. The model presented overcomes this deficiency by disaggregating the knowledge production function into key elements of the typical industrial technology based on the distinctly different investment incentives associated with each element. Without such a model, the economist's ability to assess important market failures associated with investment in the major technology elements, including those with infrastructure (public-good) characteristics, is compromised. Unfortunately, even with the correct knowledge production function, the required data are difficult to collect. This forces government agencies, which fund a majority of technology infrastructure research, to use second-best approaches for economic analyses. The second half of this paper therefore presents an analytical framework that can be driven by more accessible data and provide reasonable impact assessments until better data become available.     

The neglect of replacement investment in keynesian economics

Abstract

This article describes Keynes's early analysis of replacement investment and his subsequent neglect of the subject, especially by his followers. It goes on to explain how this deficiency helped to mislead later economists who attempted to use Keynes as a guide for economic policy and theory and the consequences of the errors of these economists.