The possibility of judgment aggregation on agendas with subjunctive implications

The new field of judgment aggregation aims to find collective judgments on logically interconnected propositions. Recent impossibility results establish limitations on the possibility to vote independently on the propositions. I show that, fortunately, the impossibility results do not apply to a wide class of realistic agendas once propositions like “if a then b” are adequately modelled, namely as subjunctive implications rather than material implications. For these agendas, consistent and complete collective judgments can be reached through appropriate quota rules (which decide propositions using acceptance thresholds). I characterise the class of these quota rules. I also prove an abstract result that characterises consistent aggregation for arbitrary agendas in a general logic.     

Three Pillars of Conventional Wisdom

This paper considers three pillars of contemporary economic wisdom that form part of the so-called 'Washington consensus': that free markets work best; that price stability is a good thing; and that deregulated financial markets work best. We argue that these propositions apply in certain circumstances, but do not have general validity. After discussing the circumstances in which these propositions do not hold we suggest how the conventional policy wisdom should be revised.     

The breakdown of the IS–LM synthesis: implications for post-Keynesian economic theory

The monetarist and the new classical economics attack routed the IS–LM version of Keynesian theory and the large scale econometric models from the centre of macroeconomic research. However monetarism and the new classical economics were more successful as a critique of the IS–LM orthodoxy than as a basis for fruitful research and policy analysis.

Post-Keynesian economists also attack the IS–LM orthodoxy, mainly because it misspecified ‘… the economic society in which we actually live’. Post-Keynesians that emphasized financial and labour markets argued that properties of the real world economy made instability normal results ofmarket interactions.

The vacuum in main line theory that developed as the shortcomings of monetarism became evident led to a revival of interest in basic Keynesian propositions. This has spawned what is now labeled a new Keynesian economics. New Keynesian economists conform to the modeling standards set by the new classical rational expectations school but claim to get Keynesian results. To a degree these results are compatible with propositions of post-Keynesian economics.

It is suggested that a convergence between the new and the post-Keynesian economics can be expected, and the result is likely to be fruitful.     

Why Economists should Choose their Inheritance: Physics and Path-independence in Economic Systems

Abstract

This paper considers the possibility of using fiscal rather than monetary policy as the instrument of stabilization policy in a new consensus framework. Describing the conduct of fiscal policy in terms of a ‘pseudo Taylor rule’, it is shown that fiscal policy is as, if not more, effective than monetary policy as a tool for macroeconomic stabilization. The conclusion reached is that the comparative neglect of fiscal policy as an instrument of stabilization policy in new consensus macroeconomics is unwarranted.     

Marx and Kalecki on aggregate instability and class struggle

Abstract

Michal Kalecki developed his original model of the business cycle in the early 1930s. Several versions referred as versions I, II and III have been developed until the late 1960s from which Kalecki draw three central propositions on instability and class struggle: (1) the capitalist system “cannot break the impasse of fluctuations around a static position” unless it is shocked by “semi-exogenous factors”, (2) the dynamics of the profit rate and investment – as in version I and II – may be disconnected from “class struggle” and (3) when class struggle impacts the dynamics of the economy – as in version III – this is happening in a context in which expected profitability of new investment projects is negatively related to the profit share. In this article, we want to show that each of these three proposals represents key differences with Marx.     

The future of food production – a text-mining approach

ABSTRACT

The system of food production is facing grand challenges, such as a rising population, climate change, degrading bio-productivity of agricultural land and over-fishing. Agriculture and food production are becoming more innovative and implement new infrastructure, IT-platforms or biotechnologies, like gene editing or synthetic food production. A more advanced knowledge base about food innovations helps customers to build informed opinions of new technologies and provides policy makers and industry actors with better information for strategic decision-making. As the amount of available information exceeds expert knowledge or manual filtering of data outputs, this paper presents a text mining study on science and technology in food production based on more than 30 million documents. The proposed methodology which we demonstrate on the example of the future of food production can be applied each time new data becomes available and can serve as an early warning system for a changing technology landscape.     

The capital-based view of the firm

We offer here a capital-based view (CBV) that incorporates, and goes further than related views, (like the resource- and the knowledge-based view) of the firm. This general approach uses ideas about capital and its structure to examine the nature of heterogeneous resources and their attributes and how they are organized by entrepreneurs (individually and in teams). These entrepreneurs exercise judgment in valuing these heterogeneous resources in productive combinations that they attempt to create. This article uses insights gained from this understanding of the nature and function of capital to draw further propositions about the role of knowledge, management, and economic organization. We survey the main components of the CBV of the firm and examine management and organizational topics looking through the lens of the CBV. The capital dimension adds new insights and provides a powerful unifying framework.     

Preschool for all? Enrollment and maternal labour supply implications of a bilingual preschool policy

ABSTRACT

Previous research supports the effectiveness of preschool in various contexts, yet there is limited evidence whether universal-type preschool policies induce changes in enrollment. While certain states have enacted universal preschool policies, some have also considered bilingual preschool mandates, either as a supplementary or stand-alone policy, requiring schools to open up bilingual classrooms for children from non-English speaking families. The question of whether bilingual preschool policies can induce enrollment and close achievement gaps between English learners and English speakers is particularly important today for urban cities and states with large immigrant populations. In this study, I exploit exogenous variation from the first bilingual prekindergarten mandate in Illinois to estimate the causal effects on preschool enrollment and maternal labour supply of recently immigrated and Hispanic families. Utilizing a difference-in-differences strategy, estimates suggest significant effects on preschool enrollment between 18% and 20% and no effects of increasing maternal labour supply in Illinois. Estimates are robust to various specifications, control groups, and timeframes. I use the analysis to further discuss whether universal preschool policies are designed sufficiently for access and inclusion of various student types, and contribute to our understanding on the effectiveness of using childcare subsidies to increase the welfare of low-income families.     

Who innovates with whom and why? Evidence from international collaboration in energy patenting

ABSTRACT

The use of renewable and alternative energy technologies, which have the potential to reduce carbon emissions worldwide, is limited. Common environmental policy environments may encourage inventors to share the costs and risks needed to develop high quality energy technologies. In this work, I study the propensity to collaboratively innovate by examining counts of renewable energy and alternative energy patents from 1990–2013 that have multiple inventors that are located in more than one country. Results from a gravity model framework suggest that similarity in environmental regulations is an important, positive driver of collaboration in energy technologies. I find that this impact is driven by market-based environmental policies that give inventors the flexibility to seek out international partnerships. I provide evidence that market-based environmental policy similarity may encourage collaboration across geographic and cultural distances but may not encourage collaboration across technologically dissimilar nations.     

Extrapolation of causal effects – hopes,assumptions, and the extrapolator’s circle

ABSTRACT

I consider recent strategies proposed by econometricians for extrapolating causal effects from experimental to target populations. I argue that these strategies fall prey to the extrapolator’s circle: they require so much knowledge about the target population that the causal effects to be extrapolated can be identified from information about the target alone. I then consider comparative process tracing (CPT) as a potential remedy. Although specifically designed to evade the extrapolator’s circle, I argue that CPT is unlikely to facilitate extrapolation in typical econometrics and evidence-based policy applications. To argue this, I offer a distinction between two kinds of extrapolation, attributive and predictive, the latter being prevalent in econometrics and evidence-based policy. I argue that CPT is not helpful for predictive extrapolation when using the kinds of evidence that econometricians and evidence-based policy researchers prefer. I suggest that econometricians may need to consider qualitative evidence to overcome this problem.     

Emerging Consensus on Labour Market Institutions and Implications for Developing Countries: From the Debates in India

Abstract

This paper makes a critical intervention to on-going theoretical and policy debates in the economic analysis of labour market institutions (LMIs) in the context of recent debates in India. It focuses on the internal inconsistency of mainstream economic analyses of LMIs, in particular those based on the new institutional economics (NIE) approach, and what appears to be an emerging policy consensus on LMIs within the World Bank and the International Labour Organization (ILO). The paper draws out the possible ideological parallels in these two developments, despite different intellectual origins and intentions of those engaged in these debates. A corresponding modification in policy debates in India is observed in the shifting perspectives from the Second National Commission on Labour (SNCL) to the National Commission for Enterprises in the Unorganised Sector (NCEUS). The apparent emerging consensus in both the theoretical literature and policy debates reveals the tendency for researchers to focus on labour market outcomes and phenomenal forms of LMIs rather than the structures, processes, agencies and relations that underpin them. While this can be seen as an advancement from the traditional distortionist-institutionalist dichotomy, the tendency of this consensus to explain the persistence of seemingly inefficient institutions within the micro-level choice theoretic framework and its appeal to policy agendas on good governance, social capital, trust and civil society, render it vulnerable to appropriation by the mainstream. The paper argues that the emerging consensus on LMIs is an inadequate framework to inform effective policy propositions, and highlights the scope and opportunity for a political economy alternative.     

Intrinsic versus instrumental benefits of higher education: the challenge from self-funded higher education

ABSTRACT

UK policy concern about the value and funding of Higher Education has focussed on the intrinsic and instrumental impacts of education. Typically, returns to education are identified by narrow economic metrics, like earnings. However, policy makers recognize the need for wider measures of welfare. Consequently, contemporaneous relationships with subjective well-being (SWB) have been explored. In this paper the effects of higher education on SWB are mapped through time. The results show positive effects in the first year at university that dissipate afterwards. Intrinsic benefits from education remain but get eroded implying increased stress from loan financed education with transition to a more instrumental perspective on education.     

Hospital patients with severe wounds: early evidence on the impact of Medicare payment changes on treatment patterns and outcomes

Aims: This study examines the effects of recent changes in Medicare long-term care hospital (LTCH) payments on treatment patterns and outcomes for severe wound patients discharged from short-term acute care hospitals (STACHs).

Materials and methods: The rolling implementation of a new Medicare payment policy was used to develop a difference-in-difference model. The study population consisted of Medicare beneficiaries subjected to the payment policy changes and hospitalized for stage 3, 4, or unstageable wounds; non-healing surgical wounds; and fistula. Using 2015-Q1-2017 Medicare claims data, changes in outcomes were examined for severe wound patients exposed to the new policy (treatment) and those that were not (comparison). All outcomes were modeled using linear regressions and adjusted for patient clinical characteristics. Analysis was conducted in a full sample and a sample with high-LTCH-use propensity.

Results: Severe wound patients exposed to the new policy experienced 4.1 and 7.5 percentage point (pp) reductions in LTCH use relative to the comparison group in the full sample and high-LTCH-propensity sample, respectively (p?p?=?.039). No statistically significant change was found in 60-day mortality or Medicare spending after the policy change in the treatment group as compared to the comparison group (p?>?.10). However, among severe wound patients who are exposed to the new policy in the high-LTCH-propensity sample, readmission and post-discharge sepsis rates increased after the policy change relative to the comparison group (readmission rate = 8.1 pp, p?=?.075; sepsis rate = 7.0 pp, p?=?.033).

Limitations: The findings are based on data from a limited timeframe around the policy change and, thus, provide only early evidence on the effects of the new policy.

Conclusion: The new LTCH payment policy is associated with no changes in Medicare spending and mortality, but higher readmissions and post-discharge sepsis rates among severe wound patients with a high likelihood to use an LTCH.     

Monetary policy on interest rates: a retrospective analysis since Thornton

Abstract

In response to the affirmation by certain authors and critics of a recent return to an interest-rate policy that, in their opinion, resembles a throwback to the nineteenth century theory of monetary policy on interest rates, I pose the question of the difficulties of interest-rate policy in a retrospective analysis beginning with the current that founded the short-term interest rate policy within classical analysis and by focusing my discussion on several key authors (Thornton, Banking School, Bagehot, Wicksell, Keynes, contemporary authors such as Woodford). To this end, I study the importance that the interbank money market plays for these authors, which determines the target rate for the central bank.     

The economic policy uncertainty and firm investment in Australia

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the Australian firm investment activity. We find a significant positive relationship between the EPU and the firm investment over 2002 to 2017 period. Our main results remain unchanged after several endogeneity tests. Further analysis reveals that this relationship becomes pronounced for firms if their headquarters located in small states, firms with more tangible assets, higher operating cash flows and cash holdings, higher profits and leverage, but firms with fewer dividend payouts. Our paper sheds lights on the unique attribute of the impact of the EPU on the Australian firm investment activity and offers important policy and managerial implications.     

Economic analysis of BRAF gene mutation testing in real world practice using claims data: costs of single gene versus panel tests in patients with lung cancer

Aims: To assess the time to BRAF testing, compare the characteristics of tested vs not-tested patients, and describe the costs for sequential vs next-generation sequencing (NGS) BRAF testing.

Methods: Patients diagnosed with lung cancer after December 1, 2013 were identified from two US claims databases; their characteristics were assessed during the 12 months before diagnosis (index date). Testing modalities were analyzed from the index date to end of continuous health plan enrollment or data availability (December 2015), based on combinations of Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) procedure codes. Time to BRAF testing was assessed using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Costs were analyzed from a payer’s perspective.

Results: A total of 28,011 patients newly-diagnosed with lung cancer were identified. Of them, 1,260 (4.5%) were tested for BRAF: 3.2% and 4.2% were tested at 6 and 12 months, respectively, after the index date. Compared to non-tested patients, tested patients were younger (58.3 vs 65.3 years; p?<?.001), had a lower Charlson Comorbidity Index (2.8 vs 2.9; p?=?.005), and a higher proportion had metastases (70.9% vs 43.4%; p?<?.001). In 76.0% of cases, BRAF was tested along with KRAS. BRAF was tested using NGS in 6.6% of cases. The average reimbursed amounts for the 10 most common CPT code combinations were $207–$2,074. Using the average costs of individual mutation tests, the total cost of sequential testing comprising KRAS, EGFR, ALK, ROS1, and BRAF tests was $3,763 ($464, $696, $1,070, $1,127, and $406, respectively), that of NGS was $2,860.

Limitations: Claims data did not include BRAF test results.

Conclusions: Among patients newly-diagnosed with lung cancer, 4.5% were tested for BRAF. Tested patients were younger and had a lower comorbidity burden, but more advanced disease. While reimbursed amounts varied greatly based on combinations of testing procedures, NGS testing was associated with cost savings compared to sequential testing of individual mutations.     

Perpetual growth,the labor share,and robots

ABSTRACT

The recent literature on the economic effects of machine learning, robotization and artificial intelligence suggests that there may be an upcoming wave of substitution of human labor by machines. We argue that these new technologies may lead to so-called perpetual growth, i.e. growth of per capita income with a non-progressing state of technology. We specify an exact parameter threshold beyond which perpetual growth emerges, and argue that ongoing technological change may bring the threshold in reach. We also show that in a state of perpetual growth, factor-eliminating technological progress reduces the role of labor in the production process and that this leads to a rising wage rate but ever-declining share of wage income. We present simulation experiments on several policy options to combat this inequality, including a universal basic income as well as an option in which workers become owners of ‘robots’.     

Confronting the Trilemma: Culture,Institutions, and Macroeconomic Disequilibria

Abstract

Although the fundamental trilemma of open-economy macroeconomics has been a popular framework for analyzing the effects of various policy combinations, it ignores how policy regimes change. Drawing from Post-Keynesian Institutionalist theory, this article considers this process in democracies as a type of technological change in which progress may be limited by insufficient knowledge and actions by vested interests. A case study of interwar France shows that these barriers often delay or weaken stabilization programs, which increase both political and economic uncertainty that further lowers aggregate demand and inhibits the attainment of macroeconomic equilibria. Although we should not generalize these observations, they suggest that understanding and addressing cultural and institutional factors may be necessary for successful countercyclical policymaking.     

How digital user innovators become entrepreneurs: a sociomaterial analysis

ABSTRACT

Digital entrepreneurship has received growing interest from academics and practitioners. Another form of entrepreneurship in which interest has been greatly boosted, thanks to digital technologies, is user entrepreneurship. Drawing on the sociomaterial perspective of digital entrepreneurship, the present article contributes to this body of knowledge by exploring how user entrepreneurs frame and implement the process to create new firms to commercialise their own digital innovations. Our qualitative study reports a single case study about the process of digital entrepreneurship implemented by a patient innovator that launched a new firm to commercialise his healthcare innovative solution. Various theoretical propositions about the sociomateriality of the entrepreneurial process of digital user innovators are offered.