Genetically modified crops as real options: Identifying regional and country-specific differences

This paper employs real options methodology for evaluating profitability of genetically modified (GM) crops in volatile market and regulatory environments. Observed instances of market entry, or product introduction, are viewed as outcomes of profit maximizing decisions based on comparison of market entry costs, expected future returns, and the value of managerial flexibility. The process is estimated using simulated maximum likelihood. The estimates suggest that, in the developing countries, the downward volatility of the returns is higher resulting in lower adoption rates, whereas the environment in the top four industrialized GMO adopting countries appears to be costlier but much more optimistic. Commercial success of GM soybean and maize in Argentina, Brazil, and the U.S. is explained mostly by a combination of high upward return volatility and moderate entry costs. The findings may contribute to the general understanding, measurement, and possibilities of controlling the rate of technical advance in biotechnology.     

Market integration and price transmission in consumer markets of developing countries

World prices for agricultural commodities surged in 2006–08, and then again in 2011–12. In many developing countries, consumer prices for staple foods, such as bread and rice, mirrored these movements. This paper examines whether prices in urban consumer markets within developing countries are co-integrated with prices in world agricultural commodity markets. Using a single equation error correction model, we examine the response of consumer prices for wheat, rice, maize, and sorghum to changes in world market prices and exchange rates in urban centers of the developing world. Analyzing over 60 country/commodity pairings, we find that developing countries’ consumer markets are co-integrated with world markets. Yet, we also find that the transmission of changes in both world prices and real exchange rates to domestic consumer prices is not high, and that the movement of domestic consumer prices to new equilibrium with world prices after a shock to the latter is relatively slow.     

Seasonal rural labor markets and their relevance to policy analyses in developing countries

Seasonality is a salient feature of rural livelihoods and particularly within agriculture the demand for labor varies with the seasons and weather. In low-income countries, agriculture employs almost two-thirds of the labor force and incomes from labor are a major determinant of welfare. Therefore, an appropriate model representation of rural labor markets is critical when analyzing agricultural and food policies. Economy-wide models are commonly used for ex-ante policy analysis, but have so far ignored the influence of seasonality, implicitly assuming separability of seasonal labor demand and supply. This study relaxes that assumption using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model calibrated to the Bhutanese economy as an illustrative case. Using model setups with and without seasonal labor markets, a cereal export ban of India is simulated leading to higher import prices for Bhutan. Results demonstrate that neglecting the influence of seasons on rural labor markets systematically biases model results. Assuming homogeneity of labor units, i.e., allowing substitution across seasons, understates the impacts of policy changes on rural wage rates, distorts households' labor-leisure trade-off decisions and overstates agricultural supply response. Given the widespread use of economy-wide models, the results are important for understanding the implications of domestic and global policy changes for agriculture and welfare in developing economies.     

主要国家能源发展战略及政策调整动向

2008年国际金融危机爆发以来,世界地缘政治格局发生深刻变化,世界经济复苏仍存在较大不确定性,国际能源市场更为复杂。为此,主要能源消费国和资源国对能源发展战略和政策进行了调整,主要体现在几个方面:1)力求能源结构和来源多元化;2)提高能源自给能力;3)核能政策出现分化,部分国家仍对发展核电持积极态度,但部分国家放弃发展核电;4)大力发展新能源和可再生能源;5)突出节能和提高能效;6)注重加强国际能源合作;7)重视能源技术创新。这些能源政策动向将对全球能源市场走势产生深远影响。     

Korean telecom policy in global competition: implications for developing countries

United States efforts to open the Korean telecommunications market have been incessant and tenacious, to the extent that Korea is the only country to be twice designated by the US as a priority foreign country (PFC). Through major restructuring driven by the Korean government, the telecommunications infrastructure of Korea has been strengthened and expanded, and in the process has posed a threat to the US telecommunications industry. Thus, since the late 1980s, the Korean telecommunications industry has been monitored and threatened with trade sanctions by the United States Trade Representative, and all internal restructuring has been closely related to bilateral negotiations with the US, and multilateral negotiations in the Uruguay Round. Based on interviews with key Korean telecommunications personnel and analyses of public documents, this research examines the Korean telecommunications market, telecommunications policies relative to the US and WTO, and the recent economic crisis that has affected the stability of the industry. The paper also offers five major recommendations to government and industry policymakers, including a more active and positive stance toward liberalisation, the relinquishing by bureaucrats of their monopolistic power over policymaking, the securing of an open and transparent policymaking process, and, in relations with the US, and the mobilisation of regional and multilateral organisations to ensure fair competition in telecommunications.     

Trade and food policy: Case studies from three Pacific Island countries

There is growing interest in the use of trade policy to create a healthier food supply. Eighty percent of chronic disease deaths occur in low and middle income countries, and a responsive food policy is an absolute necessity. In this paper we analysed three trade-related food policy initiatives to reduce the supply of fatty meat in the Pacific, in order to help public health workers understand how to effect policy change in sectors beyond the health portfolio. We found that policy uptake and implementation were easier with advocacy, tailoring the policy to the political context, the selection of policy tools that align with Government priorities (e.g. trade commitments) – ideally tools that are already used by trade policy makers in other contexts – and a broad justification for the policy initiative. Barriers to policy success included a focus only on health concerns (not taking into account policy issues of other sectors), limited engagement from other sectors in proposing and developing these cross-sectoral policies, and lack of a clear enforcement mechanism.     

俄罗斯干线原油管道管理体制及对亚太国家出口的运输政策

干线原油管道是俄罗斯原油的主要运输工具,它属于国有资产,受政府的管理和控制.政府委托管道运输公司实施对干线管道的日常管理和运营,并建立了两种基本制度--管道使用权分配制度和运输价格决定制度,以实现管道利用的最优化和原油出口利益的最大化.管道使用权分配的决定权属于挂靠在能源部下面的管道利用跨部门委员会,委员会参考石油公司的申请每季度进行一次管道使用权分配.由于涉及多方面的利益,对管道使用权分配制度的每一次改动都要克服很大的障碍.管道运输价格由联邦税费局参考管道运输公司的申请决定,原则上每年改定一次.在制定通过远东原油管道向亚太国家出口原油的运输政策时,有三种运价方案可供俄政府考虑.从长期的角度看,俄政府会采取平衡自西西伯利亚地区向东和向西出口运价的方案;从短期的角度看,俄政府会向石油公司提供优惠的运输政策并尽量减小到达中国与到达科兹米诺的运价差.     

ICT diffusion and production in ASEAN countries: Patterns,performance, and policy directions

ICT has become an increasingly crucial catalyst for economic development, but the transition to more sophisticated technologies is a challenging process requiring prudent vision, strategy, and policy. This paper investigates the dynamics of ASEAN countries’ performance on embracing the ICT revolution for development. Several findings stand out. First, ASEAN experienced a faster pace of convergence, compared to the rest of the world, in level of ICT diffusion over the past 10 years. Second, all ASEAN countries, including Singapore – the leading player, face increasing challenges in competing with income-level peers on ICT diffusion performance. ASEAN is a global hub of ICT hardware production and a fast-growing center of ICT services exports. In terms of revealed comparative advantage, ASEAN as an economy is strong in ICT hardware but remains weak in ICT services. The paper discusses policy insights drawn from the study and proposes a strategic policy framework to guide ASEAN’s concerted efforts to embrace the ICT revolution for development.     

Food product composition,consumer health,and public policy: Introduction and overview of special section

As efforts to improve diets in high income countries intensify, attention has turned to how policies may influence diet composition. The case studies in this special issue contribute to our understanding of how two main types of policies have influenced food product composition and dietary outcomes: (1) policies affecting food manufacturers’ input costs and (2) information policy affecting competition. Research on the first type of policy is relatively new, but suggests that US commodity policies would not be good policy instruments to influence diets, except through the long run impacts of agricultural research. Research on the impacts of information policy continues to demonstrate that it can spur food industry competition to introduce healthier products, but may not result in healthier diets. International comparisons show where the US experience may have relevance for other high income countries.     

国外农业政策性银行的运行经验及借鉴

国外农业政策性银行的发展已有上百年的历史,然而,我国的农业政策性银行仍然处于一个研究、探索的初级发展阶段,综合考察分析并借鉴国外农业政策性银行运行实践经验,强化农业政策性银行的职能应从法律保障和监督制约体系、资金来源渠道、职能范围调整、经营管理机制完善等方面分别采取对策.     

Global discourse on ICT and the shaping of ICT policy in developing countries

This paper provides a critique of information and communication technology (ICT) policies in developing countries. Based on critical discourse analysis (CDA) of Iranian government discourse in the case of electronic fund transfer at the point of sale (EFT-POS) system, we illustrate the influence of global discourse on the policies and their contributions to the outcomes. We also analyze how policy shaped the ways in which different actors were included and allowed to participate in the implementation process. We show that enhancing the mainstream criteria like the rate of ICT adoption and diffusion, do not necessarily mean that policy will reap the expected benefits. From this standpoint, we propose that the focus of debate in policy making and defining policy objectives should move beyond setting objectives exclusively adopted from global discourse to also considering local issues and concerns. In such conditions, there will be less resistance to the government plans and fewer social challenges.     

The impact of the European Novel Food Regulation on trade and food innovation based on traditional plant foods from developing countries

The stringent food safety assessment for novel foods required by the European Union’s Novel Food Regulation (NFR) places a high burden of proof on those bringing traditional food products to the EU market not consumed in the EU prior 1997. The regulation has emerged as a non-tariff trade barrier for heritage foods from developing countries that are viewed as “exotic” from the EU perspective. We show how the regulation has discouraged investment in supply chains and market development, and how this negatively affects income generation and rural poverty alleviation in developing countries. Focusing on plant-derived foods, this paper proposes to recognize traditional exotic foods in current EU law as a food category sui generis with food safety evidence requirements being proportionate to the risks they may pose. We argue that development activities promoting export food chains must increasingly accommodate legitimate food safety concerns about neglected food species in project design and seek to generate data to enhance regulatory acceptance in target markets.     

Healthy,sustainable and plant-based eating: Perceived (mis)match and involvement-based consumer segments as targets for future policy

Given the inseparable environmental and health impact of dietary habits, integrating health and sustainability goals has become a highly topical issue in policy development and communication to encourage consumers to adopt healthier and more sustainable diets. Increasing evidence indicates that it is possible to develop diets that are both environmentally sustainable and healthy, but their potential success largely depends on consumers’ willingness and ability to change their behavior. This study investigates consumer perceptions of the match, or mismatch, between healthy and sustainable diets, and gives insight into consumers’ motivation to eat healthily and sustainably, as measured by involvement. Data were collected in Spring 2014 through a cross-sectional quantitative online survey with samples representative for age, gender and region in four European Union (EU) countries (United Kingdom, Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands) (n = 2783). The images of a healthy diet, a sustainable diet and a plant-based diet were found to be highly compatible based on a strongly observed match between European consumers’ perceptions of these concepts. Half of the participants were highly involved in healthy eating and one third in both healthy and sustainable eating. Informational food policy actions targeting both healthy and sustainable food consumption behavior are recommended to address issues relevant to the target segments, taking into account their levels of involvement. Increasing consumers’ motivation and involvement in health and sustainability emerges as a key trigger for increasing healthy and sustainable eating.     

Information to guide policy responses to higher global food prices: The data and analyses required

National decision makers must understand the degree to which their country and population groups within it are exposed to the negative effects of higher global food prices or could exploit new economic opportunities offered by higher prices. This paper provides a conceptual overview of the range of data and analyses that will permit leaders and analysts serving them to assess the broad implications of higher global food prices for a country and its population groups. What we find is that there are a relatively small number of types of policy responses that governments might take in the face of a food price rise. Consequently, relatively well-defined sets of data need to be compiled and types of analyses used by government to generate the information needed to broadly guide efforts to prevent food price increases from becoming crises and to derive any possible benefits. International joint action can be employed profitably both to collect this data and to build national capacity to conduct the analyses needed to guide policy formulation and general program design in the face of the risks and the opportunities of higher food prices and to evaluate the effectiveness of those policy responses.     

Telecommunications pricing and consumer expectations : The case of alternate operator services

Traditional discussions of telecommunications pricing utilize microeconomic models that are often timeless. In reality, static models of price-based decision making in telecommunications do not capture an important reality: that the price feedback is substantially delayed. Since consumers have no immediate feedback on which to base rational decisions, they must utilize their expectations of price. This article analyses the implications of this, using the alternate operator services as a discussion case. This analysis shows that few alternatives beyond price regulation exist to resolve the rampant complaints in this industry.     

Multiproduct retailing and consumer shopping behavior: The role of shopping costs

We empirically examine the role of shopping costs in consumer shopping behavior in a context of competing differentiated supermarkets that supply similar product lines. We develop and estimate a model of demand in which consumers can purchase multiple products from multiple stores in the same week, and incur transaction costs of dealing with supermarkets. We show that a similar model without shopping costs predicts a larger proportion of multistop shoppers and overestimates own-price elasticities and product markups. Further, we use our model along with a model of competition between supermarkets to study two practices that are commonly used by supermarkets: product delisting and loss-leader pricing. We show that the presence of shopping costs makes product delisting less profitable whereas it makes loss-leader pricing more profitable compared to a context in which consumers do not incur shopping costs.     

Telecommunications policy in Turkey: Dismantling barriers to growth

Modern telecommunications technology is now widely seen as a critical driver in economic development. However, the issues involved in the rapid deployment of this technology are complex and frequently highly controversial. While some issues are technical, the most difficult ones involve changing an institutional framework originally designed for different times and different technologies. The process of changing this framework necessarily involves disruptive change for existing infrastructure and service providers as well as substantial benefits for the economy at large. This paper, based on an extensive series of interviews in Turkey in 2005 as well as published sources, seeks to discuss these issues in light of Turkey's progress to date in taking advantage of advanced available telecommunications technology and the myriad productivity-enhancing services that are associated with it.An important element in developing a more competitive and dynamic sector has been Turkey's long-standing desire to become a member of the European Union (EU). This has encouraged changes in the telecommunications regulatory regime following the guidelines set out in Chapter 19 of the EU “acquis” for candidate members. Nonetheless, substantial further efforts are needed to complete and implement the desired regulatory framework, particularly as it affects the former government monopoly carrier, Turk Telekom and the cable companies. A further limiting factor in recent years has been an overall investment climate characterized by a high level of uncertainty for most investors, regardless of size or nationality.Policy recommendations to help accelerate the deployment of telecommunications technology include a clear reaffirmation of the government's priorities for the sector, a reduction in the level of regulatory uncertainty, strengthening the Board and Staff of the Telecommunications Authority, and reviewing policies to broaden the scope and decrease the cost of telecommunication licenses.