Wage Compensation for Job Risks: the Case of Hong Kong

The paper provides an estimate of wage compensation for fatal job risk in Hong Kong. It uses the 1991 Population Census of Hong Kong merged with job fatality data collected by the Labour Department. The results show that there is a positive and significant compensating wage differential for job fatal risk for manual workers in Hong Kong. The estimated 'statistical value of a life' is approximately HK$10.8m in 1990 prices (about US$1.4m). While this figure is somewhat lower than many estimates for developed countries, it is much higher than workers' compensation.     

Taylor法则的实证研究:以1990年代的香港为例

本文研究90年代香港利率的决定模式。近年来,Taylor(泰勒)法则越来越多地被应用于货币研究。该法则认为短期利率可定义为产出缺口和通胀目标偏离的线性函数。尽管这一法则适用于很多经济体,但未必适用于香港。因为香港起码在两个方面跟别的经济体不同:没有与其他经济体相同的央行(或货币当局),与此同时,它又是一个国际金融中心。通过实证研究我们得出如下结论:与其他经济体不同,虽然通胀偏离和产出缺口在香港利率决定中的作用不可忽视,但金融变量如股价似乎在利率决定中起更大的作用。     

潮涌现象与政府在产业结构变迁中的作用:以港台为例

本文根据政府是否主导产业结构变迁将其划分为诱致性变迁和强制性变迁,并提出发展中经济更适于采取强制性变迁。这是因为发展中经济如果采取诱致性变迁,往往会导致"潮涌现象",而政府主导的强制性变迁则能够顺利促进产业升级。港台两地二战以来的产业结构变迁为上述观点提供了有力的支撑。     

The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Regimes: Evidence from Hong Kong and Taiwan

This paper investigates whether the macroeconomic performance of a small- open economy depends on the choice of exchange rate regimes. Hong Kong and Taiwan - two economies with many similar macroeconomic characteristics, but different in their choices of exchange rate regimes - provide a good setting to study the relation between the choice of exchange rate regime and macro-economic performance. We examine the basic facts of growth and inflation and the coefficients' stability of their vector autoregression (VAR), as well as cyclical characters of other aggregate variables in Hong Kong and Taiwan. Our empiric finding indicates that macroeconomic performance is not systematically related to exchange rate regimes.     

Exploring the Case for Monetary Integration between the Chinese Mainland and Hong Kong

This paper presents an empirical investigation on an important policy issue, namely, whether there is any evidence supporting monetary integration between the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong. We follow two lines of inquiry. First, we present a series of simple tests to find the extent to which trade and/or financial linkages exist between the two regions. Second, we use simple inflation and output differentials and structural VAR techniques to test for the degree of business cycle synchronization between the two regions. The results indicate that there is evidence supporting the existence of trade linkages and that there is also support for the possible synchronization of business cycles. We discuss the implications of this for monetary integration between Hong Kong and the mainland.     

香港新加坡转型经验对深圳的启示

深圳提出加快建设现代化国际化先进城市的目标,香港、新加坡应成为重要参照系。深圳GDP超过新加坡、香港只是时间问题,但要实现经济、管理、制度现代化的全面超越则非易事,必须通过深化改革开放,加快经济社会的转型。     

信息技术的外溢与第五轮经济长波的发展趋势

本文运用熊彼特的技术创新理论,结合20世纪90年代以来,特别是2002年以来美国经济与世界经济的走势,针对信息技术对第五轮经济长波的影响,以及第五轮经济长波的走势进行了分析。文中指出,尽管在2000年受到网络泡沫的冲击,信息技术对美国经济乃至世界经济增长的外溢作用仍在充分发挥,信息技术投资的繁荣,以及由此带来的信息技术产品不断提高的性价比和组织结构的扁平化,都使得信息技术对经济增长的贡献率不断提高。而第五轮经济长波在持续20年左右之后,随着技术创新的周期性变化,长波的下降期将会来临。在经济下降期孕育的新一轮技术创新将可能会推动经济进入新一轮长波。     

Second language skills and labor market outcomes: Evidence from the handover of Hong Kong

This paper analyzes the effects of second languages skills on labor market outcomes in Hong Kong. Using data from the Hong Kong Population Censuses, we find that both Mandarin and English language skills are linked to improved labor market performance, and the premiums for English are much larger than those for Mandarin. We further show that the sovereignty transfer of Hong Kong from the UK to China in 1997 has strengthened the positive role of Mandarin and English language skills in finding a job in Hong Kong. The political change has also increased the earnings of people with the ability to speak Mandarin. As a comparison, the earnings premium for speaking English has declined in magnitude after the sovereignty transfer. Investigating into the mechanisms, we show that the rising premiums for Mandarin language skills are operated through choices of occupations and industry sectors. Our findings suggest that important political changes can affect the economic returns to language skills in the labor market.     

香港经济发展面临的挑战和未来的展望——访香港内地经济合作先行者：潘进源议员

香港是一个细小而开放同时又是高度依赖国际贸易的自由市场经济体.在缺乏自然资源的环境下,食品和原料均需要从外输入,容易受到环球经济的反复波动影响.由于香港经济发展至成熟阶段,经济增速会逐步回落,预计2014年至2041年间实际本地生产总值平均每年增长2.8％,低于1997年以来平均每年3.4％的增长水平.     

从竞争性与互补性看中印两国服装纺织品贸易的发展前景

中国和印度之间的双边贸易由于贸易额较小而很少被人关注。然而近年来,随着两国经济的飞速发展和政治关系的改善,两国间发展贸易的潜力逐渐显现。本文针对服装纺织品这一传统产业,用净出口竞争力指数穴TSC雪和贸易互补性指数穴RCA雪来分析中印两国服装纺织品贸易中存在的竞争性和互补性,①进而探讨两国在这一行业贸易发展的前景。     

Test of the Response of the Overnight Rate to the Real Exchange Rate: The Case of Korea,Hong Kong,and Singapore

Abstract

For Korea, the overnight rate responds positively to the inflation rate, the output gap, the lagged real exchange rate, and the lagged overnight rate and negatively to the current real exchange rate. For Hong Kong, the overnight rate reacts positively to the inflation rate and the lagged overnight rate and does not react to other variables. For Singapore, the overnight rate is affected positively by the output gap and the lagged overnight rate and is not influenced by other variables. Hence, interest rate rules for some industrialized countries may not apply to Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore.     

Determinants of Competitiveness： Observations in China＇s Textile and Apparel Industries

This paper attempts to explore key determinants of competitiveness in the textile and apparel industries, with special reference to Chinese Mainland. The authors conduct a survey that is designed to use productivity, supply-side and demand-side determinants to measure enterprises＇ competitiveness. The collected survey data is then analyzed using factor analysis to capture the related determining factors indicative of competitiveness at the enterprise level. The findings demonstrate that government policies and related industry infrastructure are the most important determinants of competitiveness in the textile and apparel industries, followed by domestic demand. This suggests that the improvement of industry infrastructure can foster industry performance, and that more resources should be endowed to enhance the domestic business competitiveness of local enterprises. The development of domestic demand will foster the competitiveness of the textile and apparel industries on a more sustainable basis.     

长三角纺织服装业发展透视:从比较优势到竞争优势

长三角地区纺织服装业发展的成功在于从宏观上遵循了比较优势战略,而在国际产业分工中占据价值链低端,过分依赖廉价自然资源和劳动力又使其落入"比较优势陷阱".从积极意义上讲,遭遇国际"反倾销"和国内加工贸易新政的限制,对于长三角纺织服装业发展从发挥比较优势转为提升竞争优势而言未尝不是一次难得的机遇.     

中国内地与香港经济周期的区制依赖协同性分析——纳入美国经济影响的实证

本文运用Markov区制转移模型,对中国内地与香港经济周期协同性的区制依赖特征以及美国对两地经济周期协同性的影响进行了分析。实证结果不仅证实两地经济周期的协同性存在依赖于经济周期区制状态的门限性质,而且显示:两地经济周期的正向协同性,隐含了美国作为两地之间经济冲击的传递渠道以及两地共同的外部冲击源的影响;当剥离出美国经济的影响之后,两地经济周期的协同程度较为微弱。在此背景下,促进中国内地与香港经济周期的长期趋同,应科学甄别和合理利用美国经济对两地经济周期协同性的影响。     

The Transfer of Property Rights from the Public to the Private Sector in Hong Kong: A Critical Assessment

Abstract

The privatization idea may have lost some of its luster in recent years, but it remains relevant in today's socio-economic environment and is pursued consistently in industrialized and industrializing countries alike. Hong Kong has followed the general pattern in a manner reflecting its particular circumstances and its institutional modus operandi. The underlying logic may not appear highly compelling, from a short-term perspective, yet there are sound grounds for approaching the task positively, if viewed from a multi-year standpoint. Rather surprisingly, for such a quintessentially capitalist society, Hong Kong has not confronted the privatization challenge astutely on the political front and has handled it somewhat mechanically in managerial terms. The benefits to the community may have thus been more modest than one could legitimately expect, given the historical backdrop.     

香港文化创意产业的发展及其启示

文化创意产业是知识经济时代经济发展的重要推动力量。经过多年发展，香港文化创意产业已经形成相当大的规模，创造了令人称道的成就。香港文化创意产业的发展经验，对于祖国内地发展文化创意产业和文化经济，实现经济增长方式的根本转变，具有十分重要的启示作用。     

Bilateral tax agreement and FDI inflows: Evidence from Hong Kong investment in the Mainland China

This paper explains the changes in the composition of the source countries or regions of FDI in China from the perspective of taxation. Based on FDI data from 2003 to 2012, the empirical test, employing the difference-in-differences (DID) model, shows that, after the implementation of the tax agreement between the mainland and Hong Kong in 2007, FDI from Hong Kong increased significantly. After the integration of domestic and foreign-funded enterprise income tax systems in 2008, Hong Kong capital inflows increased even more drastically. The extended analyses show that, the substantial increase in Hong Kong capital after the implementation of this bilateral tax agreement was partly related to the diversion effect of investment. MNCs might have diverted investment from other tax havens to the mainland via Hong Kong, resulting in a sharp increase in the amount and proportion of Hong Kong investment, whereas those of FDI from other tax havens have declined.     

文化会展业:从平台到品牌的建构——以深圳文博会为例

近年来,深圳文化产业快速发展,本文以深圳文博会为例,分析了深圳文化会展业从平台到品牌建构的发展现状与存在的问题,并在此基础上,对文化会展业从平台到品牌的提升提出相关建议.应继续坚持国际化,打造世界级展会；坚持内容为王,彰显展会文化内涵；坚持交易为王,提高参展收益；坚持精细服务,凸显展会档次.     

最小价格变动单位的减小对买卖价差日内周期性的影响——来自香港的证据

本文实证分析了香港联交所2006年降低最小价格变动单位(MPV)对股票日内买卖价差的影响。首次检验并拒绝了Foucault等(2005)提出的“收盘买卖价差假说”--他们预测在MPV降低后,收盘时买卖价差相对之前同时段会增大,并给出了若干解释。进一步的回归分析发现,MPV减少后,标准化买卖价差在开盘时变大,在收盘时则变小。这说明在降低MPV的情况下,限价指令交易者调整了他们的日内交易策略。     

香港人民币离岸市场的发展与预期风险

全球金融危机的爆发使中国货币当局意识到推进人民币国际化的必要性与紧迫性。由于资本项目的未完全开放和人民币尚未实现可自由兑换,为了稳步推行人民币国际化进程,香港成为发展人民币离岸市场的首选之地。伴随一系列相关政策措施的出台,香港人民币离岸市场日益发展壮大。本文在考察人民币跨境贸易结算试点实施以来香港人民币离岸市场流动性的形成、债券市场的演进和金融衍生品市场的现状的基础上,总结了现阶段香港人民币离岸市场发展的特点,探讨了香港人民币离岸市场在未来发展中可能面临的主要问题和预期风险,并提出了相应的对策与建议。