Common cyclical features analysis in VAR models with cointegration

The paper considers n-dimensional VAR models for variables exhibiting cointegration and common cyclical features. Two specific reduced rank vector error correction models are discussed. In one, named the “strong form” and denoted by SF, the collection of all coefficient matrices of a VECM has rank less than n, in the other, named the “weak form” and denoted by WF, the collection of all coefficient matrices except the matrix of coefficient of error correction terms has rank less than n. The paper explores the theoretical connections between these two forms, suggests asymptotic tests for each form and examines the small sample properties of these tests by Monte Carlo simulations.     

A characterization of vector autoregressive processes with common cyclical features

This paper presents necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of common cyclical features in Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) processes integrated of order 0, 1, 2, where the common cyclical features correspond to common serial correlation (CS), commonality in the final equations (CE) and co-dependence (CD). The results are based on local rank factorizations of the reversed AR polynomial around the poles of its inverse. All processes with CS structures are found to present also CE structures and vice versa. The presence of CD structures, instead, implies the presence of both CS and CE structures, but not vice versa. Characterizations of the CS, CE, CD linear combinations are given in terms of linear subspaces defined in the local rank factorizations.     

Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis

This paper presents a quarterly global model combining individual country vector error‐correcting models in which the domestic variables are related to the country‐specific foreign variables. The global VAR (GVAR) model is estimated for 26 countries, the euro area being treated as a single economy, over the period 1979–2003. It advances research in this area in a number of directions. In particular, it provides a theoretical framework where the GVAR is derived as an approximation to a global unobserved common factor model. Using average pair‐wise cross‐section error correlations, the GVAR approach is shown to be quite effective in dealing with the common factor interdependencies and international co‐movements of business cycles. It develops a sieve bootstrap procedure for simulation of the GVAR as a whole, which is then used in testing the structural stability of the parameters, and for establishing bootstrap confidence bounds for the impulse responses. Finally, in addition to generalized impulse responses, the current paper considers the use of the GVAR for ‘structural’ impulse response analysis with focus on external shocks for the euro area economy, particularly in response to shocks to the US. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Monetary policy analysis and inflation targeting in a small open economy: a VAR approach*

Empirical monetary policy research has increased in the last decade, possibly because deregulation and explicit monetary targets have made monetary policy issues more interesting. In particular, within the inflation targeting framework it has been argued that inflation forecasts can be used as optimal intermediate targets for monetary policy, and the development of empirical models that have good forecasting properties is therefore important. This paper shows that a VAR model with long‐run restrictions, justified by economic theory, is useful for both forecasting inflation and for analysing other issues that are central to the conduct of monetary policy. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The cyclical nature of markups in Canadian manufacturing: A production theory approach

In this paper the effects of cost and demand characteristics on the magnitude and cyclical behaviour of markups in Canadian manufacturing are measured within a production theory framework. Price to marginal cost ratios for various manufacturing industries are computed, and the impact art their secular and cyclical trends from changes in capacity utilization, scale economies, variable input prices, import competition, unemployment and other exogenous market and technological determinants are explored using adjusted markup indexes and elasticities. The measured price margins seem weakly procyclical. Further, evaluation of the determinants of these cycles suggests that the procyclical nature of markups is primarily related to exogenous factors affecting costs such as energy price ‘shocks’, and that cost characteristics underlying scale economies provide a countercyclical influence that counteracts the profitability arising from markups.     

The cyclical pattern of regional unemployment flows in Poland

Using male unemployment benefit data across Polish regions during 1994–1996, we find that unemployment flows are pro-cyclical and increase with job reallocation, controlling for other factors. At the national level we observe that job reallocation and output are associated with stagnant unemployment flows, low inflows and long duration. This has heretofore been attributed to workers by-passing the unemployment benefit system as they move job to job. We show this to be a fallacy of aggregation. The cyclical behaviour of regional unemployment flows and their response to job reallocation suggests that workers use unemployment benefit system to facilitate transition.     

The cyclical upgrading of labor and on-the-job search

This paper examines patterns of worker reallocation in the search and matching model of the labor market. We show that on-the-job search is crucial for explaining the observed cyclical upgrading of workers to better employment opportunities in booms. This is due to the rising availability of employed searchers which facilitates recruitment for newly created high-wage jobs. The standard model fails to exhibit such behavior. At the same time, the model is consistent with salient features of labor market dynamics, such as the volatility of vacancies and unemployment, and a highly procyclical rate of job-to-job transitions. This suggests an important channel for the reallocation of workers across jobs as well as the propagation of aggregate shocks.     

The effects of monetary policy in Russia: A factor-augmented VAR approach

Using factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) models, this study examines the effects of the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) monetary policy on economic indicators. The sample includes 39 monthly macroeconomic series and covers the period 2004 through 2019. The analysis revealed counter-intuitive results, with consumer prices often responding positively to a contractionary monetary policy shock, and vice versa; this is related to the impossible trinity. The ruble exchange devaluation was accompanied by price increases through an import price pass-through, so the CBR chose exchange stability and free capital flows out of the impossible trinity, temporarily subordinating monetary policy independence. Such independence was limited, possibly due to Russia’s high dependence on energy exports and the link between energy prices and the exchange rate. The findings indicate no direct evidence of an effect of monetary policy tightening on the decrease in consumer prices; rather, the attenuation of ruble depreciation may have helped to stabilize prices, even after the CBR adopted inflation targeting.     

The importance of volunteers in a capital campaign

One of the most significant factors in the success of any capital campaign is the number, quality and commitment of volunteers used to guide, implement and promote the campaign. This paper will discuss the importance of using volunteers and the critical roles they play within the campaign. The volunteer as giver, asker and motivator will be explained. An example of a typical campaign organisational chart is provided to help the reader identify the number and types of volunteers necessary to implement a successful campaign. Volunteers have many roles to play, and getting the right person to fill each of these roles is essential to success. Methods for recruiting volunteers and the materials that are needed to implement a successful recruitment strategy are included in this discussion. Particular emphasis is placed on the role of the campaign chair as the leader of the campaign effort. The unique role of the Board of Directors as volunteers during a capital campaign is addressed in this paper. Strategies for keeping volunteers involved and motivated are discussed, along with tips to make the volunteer campaign experience a satisfying one for both staff and volunteer. In summary, the author contends that the use of volunteers in a capital campaign is essential to the success of the campaign. Copyright © 2002 Henry Stewart Publications     

Changes in seasonal patterns : Are they cyclical?

This paper explores the hypothesis that the seasonal patterns of macroeconomic variables vary with expansions and contractions. Graphical techniques and generalized predictive tests for structural stability are used to identify and test patterns of changing seasonality. A Monte Carlo exercise shows the power of the tests against interesting alternatives. The empirical results suggest that seasonal patterns are unstable and that in many cases changes are linked to the stages of the business cycle. The forecasting costs incurred by treating seasonality as constant are discussed and evaluated.     

Restricted forecasting with VAR models: An analysis of a test for joint compatibility between restrictions and forecasts

A restricted forecasting compatibility test for Vector Autoregressive Error Correction models is analyzed in this work. It is shown that a variance–covariance matrix associated with the restrictions can be used to cancel out model dynamics and interactions between restrictions. This allows us to interpret the joint compatibility test as a composition of the corresponding single restriction compatibility tests. These tests are useful for appreciating the contribution of each and every restriction to the joint compatibility between the whole set of restrictions and the unrestricted forecasts. An estimated process adjustment for the test is derived and the resulting feasible joint compatibility test turns out to have better performance than the original one. An empirical illustration of the usefulness of the proposed test makes use of Mexican macroeconomic data and the targets proposed by the Mexican Government for the year 2003.     

城市化对区域生态安全的影响——基于VAR模型的实证分析

在搜集1990年到2007年新疆生态安全和城市化数据的基础上,通过建立VAR模型,对城镇化和生态安全之间的关系进行了协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应和方差分解分析,得到以下结论:生态安全和城镇化之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系;城镇化是促进生态安全的格兰杰原因;城镇化和生态安全之间存在一个相互影响的过程,但城镇化对生态安全扰动的响应小于生态安全对城镇化扰动的响应,且随着时间的推移,生态安全和城镇化的当期值均对对方的未来值产生正向扰动,即二者在一定程度上可以相互促进。     

The importance of efficient use in the adoption of technology: A micro panel data analysis

Even after the introduction of the new rice technology (Green revolution) about more than two decades ago, the food shortage problem has not decreased significantly in many developing countries. Obviously, there can be no dispute over the importance of the new rice technology in bringing about improvements in agricultural productivity. But, there are factors other than the choice of technology which are equally important, and a neglect of these factors may lead to a complete negation of any possible gains in productivity arising from the use of new technology. One such factor is the efficient use of the technology. This paper examines farm-specific application of the new rice technology by using a micro-level panel data from a South Indian district. The results show a wide variation in the efficient use of the technology by the sample farmers. Extension and education were identified as two major constraining factors.The refereeing process of this paper was handled through N.R. Adam.     

货币政策与金融形势指数FCI: 基于VAR的实证分析

为了探索资产价格在货币政策中的信息功能,经济学者们构造了金融形势指数FCI以反映未来产出与通货膨胀率的变化.常规的FCI指数包括真实短期利率、真实房地产价格指数、真实有效汇率指数和真实股权价格指数.鉴于中国货币政策的实践,本文拓展了FCI指数的概念,考察了加入真实货币供应量的FCI指数在中国货币政策传导中的信息角色.基于VAR模型的实证研究表明：FCI指数可以成为中国货币政策的重要参照系;包含真实货币供应量的FCI指数对CPI通胀率具有更好的预测力.     

The cyclical nature of family income distribution in the united states: An empirical note

This note utilizes a cubic polynomial to model the cyclical behaviour of income inequality in the U.S. from 1947 to 2000. Linear and quadratic models have been used to explain the pattern, but they are not capable of detecting more than one extreme point. The simplest model capable of detecting a cycle is a cubic polynomial. By detecting the inflection points, the model can “predict” the turning points, from convergence to divergence. The model performs better with nominal data than with real data. (JEL 015, 040)     

Outsourcing to a non-developed supplier market: The importance of operational aspects in outsourcing

This article investigates how firms manage outsourcing in situations of a non-developed supplier market. This study followed the initial outsourcing activities and strategies of two case companies in the wood product manufacturing industry. The findings show that greater focus needs to be placed on operational aspects associated with non-developed supplier markets, which contrasts with the traditional strategic view of outsourcing. For practitioners, this article suggests that it is important to emphasise that the learning curve for a supplier can be lengthy, and also that alternative outsourcing routes are available when outsourcing to a non-developed supplier market.     

谈企业集团财务战略的周期特征

本文分析了企业集团在生命周期各个阶段的主要特征,并对企业集团在生命周期不同阶段所应采取的财务战略进行了探讨.     

Demographic-economic analysis in a multi-zonal region: a case study of Nordrhein-Westfalen

"This paper develops a series of spatially-disaggregated demographic-economic models, based on an extended Leontief type input-output model. Travel between residence and place of work and residence and place of shopping is included in the models, and a detailed decomposition of a range of multipliers identified. A model explicitly involving travel to work is developed empirically for the state of Nordrhein-Westfalen in West Germany, and sets of multipliers presented which relate changes in demographic and economic variables in particular zones of the state with changes in economic output and employment-related variables in other zones."     

The relative importance of journals used in operations management research A citation analysis

Journal rankings are important for a variety of reasons, most importantly as the basis of academic tenure and promotion decisions. A common approach in other fields is the citations methodology which is used in this study to determine the relative importance of various operations management (OM) journals. The citations analysis noted the frequency that all other journals are cited in Decision Sciences, Journal of Operations Management, and Management Science during the period 1992 to 1994. Rankings are provided based on total citations, citations per article, and citations per words published. The study shows that the journals with the most importance to OM research are Management Science, Decisions Sciences and Operations Research. Other journals important to OM research are the Harvard Business Review, Journal of Operations Management, and IIE Transactions.