Systems of innovation theory and the changing architecture of agricultural research in Africa

This paper examines the on-going evolution of the organisational architecture of agricultural research in Africa. Once considered a rural backwater populated by agronomists, extension agents and farmers, agricultural research is now being explicitly placed within global debates about innovation, technology, institutions and development. This is reflected in a growing interest in the use of systems of innovation theory to both understand and reform innovation processes within agriculture. The basic argument put forward in the paper is that the conception of a global agricultural research system, and associated efforts to create a coordinated, multi-layered, supra-national research infrastructure, are at odds with both the realities of research at national level, and the bio-physical and socio-economic heterogeneity that characterises rural Africa. It is suggested that a less directive approach to support for agricultural research is required to allow national characteristics and differences to come to the fore, and to give more room for the development of the all important demand-side.     

Estimating impact of cassava research for development approach on productivity,uptake and food security in Malawi

Cassava in Malawi is the second most important staple food crop after maize. This paper assesses the impact of agricultural research for development approach in Malawi on cassava yields, per capita area planted to cassava and household calorie intake from cassava and maize. Given the growing interest over the past decade in agricultural research for development as an innovation systems approach for improving the delivery of research-derived benefits to smallholder farmers and having impact in Africa, this paper provides empirical evidence as to the effects of this framework. The paper concludes that Malawi’s cassava research for development has contributed to measurable gains in area planted to cassava, cassava yields and household caloric intake.     

Household food security in semi-arid Africa—the contribution of participatory adaptive research and development to rural livelihoods in Eastern Kenya

The already precarious household food-security situation in many semi-arid areas of Africa may be rendered more so through the implementation of structural adjustment programmes that frequently prescribe austerity measures, along with a safety net to protect the vulnerable. However, longer-term development policy perspectives on the one hand, and shorter-term food-relief considerations on the other, often conflict. This paper illuminates the policy conflicts which arise when local-level research and development initiatives interface with the effects of macro-policy-initiated changes and safety-net interventions. Using a participatory agricultural research project in Eastern Kenya as a case study, the paper describes specific household food-security problem diagnosis and a range of research interventions planned within a more sustainable rural livelihoods framework. Working with local farmers, the project implemented a range of applied research and linked development interventions that showed promise in easing food security through a broadening of the livelihood base. Some of these initiatives were carried further through the local farmers' own initiative. The conclusion is that semi-arid areas, despite views that see these as low-potential and obvious safety-net candidates, often have potential for agricultural intensification and increased productivity. However, to ensure that research results are utilised and farmers have access to new technology and markets, there is a need for external or public-sector support to integrated longer-term development initiatives. This may require rethinking the scope of research and development approaches, particularly removing unhelpful boundaries between research, extension and development functions, and increasing farmer participation in the whole process—if possible as part of a less centralised and more household-oriented approach to food-security policy and strategy.     

The impact of climatic change on agricultural production: Is it different for Africa?

This paper examines the impact of climatic change on the level of total agricultural production of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and non-Sub-Sahara Africa (NSSA) developing countries. In doing so it uses a new cross-country panel climatic dataset in an agricultural production framework. The results show that climate, measured as changes in country-wide rainfall and temperature, has been a major determinant of agricultural production in SSA. In contrast, NSSA countries appear not to be affected by climate in the same manner. Simulations using the estimates suggest that the detrimental changes in climate since the 1960s can account for a substantial portion of the gap in agricultural production between SSA and the rest of the developing world.     

Economic and agricultural development in West Asia and North Africa : The need for agricultural research

This paper analyses the role of agriculture in the economic development of West Asia and North Africa, with special reference to the interactions between oil wealth, population growth, agricultural development and the need for agricultural research. Since the 1960s agricultural supply lagged behind demand, which grew rapidly as a result of population increases and rising incomes. Following the oil recession of the 1980s it was felt that the development of the agricultural sector should be less dependent on other sectors, particularly oil. The possible roles of agriculture in the region's future economic development are outlined, with the implications for agricultural research. Special attention is given to the natural resource constraints affecting the region's agriculture (particularly water), and to the issues influencing the identification of research priorities.     

Linking agricultural development to school feeding in sub-Saharan Africa: Theoretical perspectives

This paper takes as a starting point the proposition that social protection interventions involving food can be used to promote transformational change in family farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa. The purpose is to highlight the complexity of pathways to agricultural transformation associated with the seemingly simple idea of home-grown school feeding (HGSF), an idea that is increasingly held up as “win–win”. By reviewing the HGSF literature and the main theories underpinning it – structured demand, localism, family farmer development – we expose areas of inconsistency across the literature and programmes as well as possible tensions that may arise in attempting to pursue both market and social objectives in the same initiative. The arguments presented herein aim to provide a basis for moving towards clarity on (1) a theory of change for HGSF programmes; (2) the conditions under which HGSF programmes are more able to yield positive agricultural development outcomes and; (3) an agenda for moving forward on research and impact evaluation. This research agenda also speaks more broadly to important under-researched areas within the general social protection and agricultural development discourse.     

Returns to food and agricultural R&D investments in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1975–2014

Research-enabled growth in agricultural productivity is pivotal to sub-Saharan Africa’s overall economic growth prospects. Yet, investments in research and development (R&D) targeted to many national food and agricultural economies throughout Africa are fragile and faltering. To gain insight into what could be driving this trend, this article updates, summarizes and reassesses the published evidence on the returns to African agricultural R&D. Based on a compilation of 113 studies published between 1975 and 2014 spanning 25 countries, the reported internal rates of return (IRRs) to food and agricultural research conducted in or of direct consequence for sub-Saharan Africa averaged 42.3%py. In addition to the 376 IRR estimates, the corresponding 129 benefit-cost ratios (BCRs) averaged 30.1. Most (96.5%) of the returns-to-research evaluations are of publicly performed R&D, and the majority (87.6%) of the studies were published in the period 1990–2009. The large dispersion in the reported IRRs and BCRs makes it difficult to discern meaningful patterns in the evidence. Moreover, the distribution of IRRs is heavily (positively) skewed, such that the median value (35.0%py) is well below the mean, like it is for research done elsewhere in the world (mean 62.4%py; median 38.0%py). Around 78.5% of the evaluations relate to the commodity-specific consequences of agricultural research, while 5.5% report on the returns to an “all agriculture” aggregate. The weight of commodity-specific evaluation evidence is not especially congruent with the composition of agricultural production throughout Africa, nor, to the best that can be determined, the commodity orientation of public African agricultural R&D.     

Technology development and adoption rates: Systems approach for agricultural research and extension

Adoption of new technology in peasant agriculture remains lower than expected. Failure to achieve expected returns is associated more with insufficiencies in the conduct of research than with external and economic factors such as price structure or lack of agricultural support services. This article sets out the case for national agricultural research and extension structures that emphasize on-farm research with a systems approach.     

What is the irrigation potential for Africa? A combined biophysical and socioeconomic approach

Although irrigation in Africa has the potential to boost agricultural productivities by at least 50%, food production on the continent is almost entirely rainfed. The area equipped for irrigation, currently slightly more than 13 million hectares, makes up just 6% of the total cultivated area. More than 70% of Africa’s poor live in rural areas and mostly depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. As a result, agricultural development is key to ending poverty on the continent. Many development organizations have recently proposed to significantly increase investments in irrigation in the region. However, the potential for irrigation investments in Africa is highly dependent upon geographic, hydrologic, agronomic, and economic factors that need to be taken into account when assessing the long-term viability and sustainability of planned projects. This paper analyzes the large, dam-based and small-scale irrigation investment potential in Africa based on agronomic, hydrologic, and economic factors. We find significant profitable irrigation potential for both small-scale and large-scale systems. This type of regional analysis can guide distribution of investment funds across countries and should be a first step prior to in-depth country- and local-level assessment of irrigation potential, which will be important to agricultural and economic development in Africa.     

The impact of agricultural research on productivity and poverty in sub-Saharan Africa

While it is widely recognized that agricultural research is a key driver of broad-based technological change in agriculture that benefits the poor in many different ways, little is known about its aggregate impacts on productivity growth and poverty reduction in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Using a polynomial distributed lag structure for agricultural research within a simultaneous system of equations framework, this paper first demonstrates that agricultural research contributes significantly to productivity growth in SSA. Productivity growth is again shown to raise per capita incomes, with income increases finally having significant poverty-reducing effects. With an aggregate rate of return of 55%, the payoffs to agricultural research are also impressive. Agricultural research currently reduces the number of poor by 2.3 million or 0.8% annually. While the actual impacts are not large enough to more than offset the poverty-increasing effects of population growth and environmental degradation, the potential impacts of agricultural research are far greater. Apart from low research investments, SSA faces several constraints outside the research system that hinder realization of potential research benefits. The results show that doubling research investments in SSA would reduce poverty by 9% annually. However, this would not be realized without more efficient extension, credit, and input supply systems.     

Prospects for integrated soil fertility management using organic and inorganic inputs: evidence from smallholder African agricultural systems

This paper reviews current organic nutrient management practices and their integration with mineral fertilizers in Sub-Saharan Africa with a view to understanding the potential impacts on a range of input markets. A number of different organic nutrient management practices have been found to be technically and financially beneficial, but they differ considerably as to their effectiveness and resource requirements. A review of African smallholder experiences with integrated soil fertility management practices finds growing use, both indigenously and through participation in agricultural projects. Patterns of use vary considerably across heterogeneous agroecological conditions, communities and households, but are stimulated by profitable commercially oriented agricultural opportunities. The potential for integrated soil fertility management to expand markets for organic inputs, labor, credit, and fertilizer is explored. We found that there are few direct analyses of these links and indirect evidence at this point in time is inconclusive.     

REDD policy impacts on the agri-food sector and food security

Recent research shows that the combined contributions of deforestation, forest degradation and peat land emissions account for about 15% of greenhouse gas emissions. The REDD policy which preserves forests and values standing forests, enables substantial emission reductions. Since agricultural production and area expansion is a primary driver of tropical deforestation, REDD policies might limit the expansion possibilities of agricultural land use and therefore influence competitiveness of the agricultural sector, agricultural prices, trade patterns, agricultural production and therefore food security in the world. This paper studies the impact of REDD policies on the agri-food sector and food security with a global CGE model called MAGNET using a scenario approach. It focuses on the restrictions on agricultural land expansion within the REDD policy package. Simulation results show that REDD policies start to affect the agri-food sector in some lower developed countries if more than 15% of potentially available agricultural areas are protected from deforestation. A stringent REDD policy that protects 90% of land reserves that could potentially be used for agriculture production results in a global real agricultural price increase of almost 7.6%, and a worldwide agricultural production decrease of 1.7%. Regional differences are large, with real agricultural price changes ranging from 4% in North America to about 24% in Sub-Saharan Africa and South-East Asia. Food access rapidly deteriorates for low-income population in these regions in the case of high forest protection levels. Compensatory payments are necessary from a food security point of view if the level of forest protection increases. Our results indicate that from a food security perspective REDD policy should stop short of trying to protect more than 40% of global carbon if the compensation mechanism is not effectively implemented within REDD.     

The multidimensional effect of financial development on trade in Africa: The role of the digital economy

The issue of how financial development affects international trade has gained much attention in the literature, both theoretical and empirical, without investigating the various transmission channels of financial development on international trade. Significantly, how the digital economy modulates the effects of financial development on trade remains unexplored. Our study addresses these research gaps using panel data from 47 African economies spanning 1990 to 2019. Our findings based on the dynamic system GMM approach show that the direct impacts of financial development and the digital economy have been crucial in driving international trade in Africa in the short and long runs. Second, in the short and long runs, the digital economy serves as a vital channel through which financial development has the most significant impact on trade in Africa. Third, the robustness checks by excluding countries endowed with natural resources in Africa provide robust evidence that digital technology and finance matter for trade. Further, the study discloses an important novelty in that the marginal effects on trade increase when financial development in Africa interacts with the digital economy. In light of these findings, we conclude that policy reforms should focus on policies that encourage the development of the digital economy and its use in the financial sector in Africa.     

High rural population density Africa – What are the growth requirements and who participates?

A large and increasing proportion of agricultural growth in Africa must come from continuous gains in land productivity in areas of high population density and hence with already relatively high yields. What that requires is analogous to the green revolution in Asia. Several features differentiate the African situation. Those include greater diversity in cropping pattern including a historically larger and more widespread tropical commodity export sector. The physical infrastructure in rural Africa is far inferior to that of most Asian countries. While the greater diversity of agriculture calls for a larger and more diverse institutional structure the reality is that the research systems, the ancillary education systems to spread innovation and the rural financial systems are generally greatly inferior to those of Asia at the beginning of the green revolution. Ethiopia’s record of a steady six to seven percent growth for agriculture and nearly halving of rural poverty demonstrates that with the right policies and investments a very poor country starting with poor physical and institutional infrastructure can bring a major contribution from agriculture growth to increased GDP and reduced poverty. As in Asia, the bulk of accelerated agricultural growth will come from small commercial farmers. They have sufficient farm income to reach or exceed the poverty level. Those are farms with, depending on the country, as little as 0.75 hectares to a few tens of hectares of land. They comprise up to half the rural population and produce on the order of 70–80 percent of agricultural output. They are in general not poor. The poor have inadequate land to reach the poverty level, initially with much underemployment, and with substantial non-farm employment. The primary driver of poverty reduction is the small commercial farmer spending on the order of half of increased income on nontradable, employment intensive goods and services from the rural non-farm sector.     

The economic analysis of agricultural research

Several economic analyses of agricultural research projects have been published in which the ‘surplus’ concept has been used to estimate welfare changes. It is suggested that this procedure does not provide a welfare indicator suitable as a basis for action. The analytical procedure can be re-worked purely in terms of resource usages. However, the welj-known hybrid-maize data of Griliches are used to show that ‘technical assessment’ can often provide, much more simply, as adequate an approximation as more elaborate methods. The importance for agricultural research planning of considerations other than the efficient use of resources is stressed.     

Solving Africa's food problem

It has been predicted that the most difficult food problems in the world during the next decade will occur in the African continent as a whole and particularly in the countries of sub-Saharan Africa. This article looks at the common characteristics of and differences between African countries, economy, socio-political conditions, agriculture and agricultural policies. Major problems of low agricultural production, increasing levels of poverty and high levels of food dependence are discussed, and policies to alleviate them put forward.     

Scarcity amidst abundance? Reassessing the potential for cropland expansion in Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa is typically regarded as land abundant, and previous efforts to estimate the true extent of potentially available cropland (PAC) have largely affirmed this perception. Such efforts, however, have largely focused on production potential and have underemphasized economic profitability and other constraints to expansion. This paper re-estimates PAC for Africa in a more explicit economic framework that emphasizes the returns to agricultural production under a variety of assumptions, using recent geospatial data. Existing PAC estimates for Africa are shown to be highly sensitive to assumptions about land productivity and market access, and are moderately influenced by the use of alternative data sources. The region’s underutilized land resources are concentrated in relatively few countries, many of which are fragile states. Between one-half and two-thirds of the region’s surplus land is currently under forest cover; conversion of forests to cropland would entail major environmental costs. Most of the continent’s unexploited land resources are located far from input and output markets, limiting their economic attractiveness. In the long run, improvements in infrastructure and agricultural productivity and the growth of hinterland towns will enhance the economic returns to cropland expansion. In the short to medium term, however, the potential for profitable smallholder-based cropland expansion in most African countries is likely to be much more limited than it is typically perceived to be.     

A critique of high-value supply chains as a means of modernising agriculture in China: The case of the beef industry

China has embarked on an agricultural modernisation program with far-reaching implications for rural development, food safety and trade. A major focus of China’s agricultural modernisation program has been to build high-value supply chains and large, modern agro-industrial enterprises. This paper provides a critique of these efforts in the case of the high-value beef supply chain. It finds that interventionist policies to fast-track the development of high-value supply chains have perverse outcomes and that a more incremental and facilitative approach to modernisation should be pursued based around the development of mid-value supply chains.     

Cerrado meets savannah,family farmers meet peasants: The political economy of Brazil’s agricultural cooperation with Mozambique

Brazil’s development cooperation policy with sub-Saharan Africa has intensified since the end of the 2000s, with Mozambique being the country’s largest partner. This South–South Cooperation enterprise has shown intentions to share elements drawn from previous experiences of programmes implemented in Brazil, particularly in the rural sector. However, Brazilian agricultural policy is notorious for its dualistic structure, and dominant political strategy has been marked by the accommodation of two different – occasionally contradictory – agricultural policy agendas, reflecting how current political forces are organized. This article demonstrates how such a dualistic structure shapes Brazil’s technical cooperation with Mozambique, pointing out that it is still unclear how far rural development perspectives rooted in the particularities of Brazilian agrarian dynamics would be useful for projects implemented in different rural contexts. We argue that, since Mozambican agricultural plans primarily emphasize a perspective that focuses on market-oriented agricultural modernization, a potential reform of the current cooperation policy toward more inclusive agenda, focused on family farming, faces political economy constraints. We conclude that the appropriation of a foreign project relies on the political economy dynamics of related contexts and power relations of involved stakeholders, an area that could deserve further attention from researchers investigating Brazil–Mozambique relations.     

Alleviating rural poverty in sub-Saharan Africa

This analysis of rural poverty and hunger in Africa discusses the intertemporal and cross-sectional dimensions of poverty as an aid to policies and programs to alleviate hunger. Since nutritional adequacy of diets varies according to season, seasonality is an important cause of poverty especially in countries with 1 major harvest. In agricultural communities the wet season brings on food shortages and high prices, requiring assistance programs to concentrate on alleviating hunger at this time of year. Drought places a similar demand on resources. People may be poorer in 1 section of a country than another if they have no access to the existing power system, depriving them of services and assistance. There are forgotten regions of Africa where people are poor due to physical isolation, increasing the risk of drought and impeding emergency relief. Production in these areas may be low because there are no consumer goods to buy with surplus. It is important to identify target groups for financial assistance which will change with time and environmental conditions.