Determinants of manufactured export performance in low-income Africa: Kenya and Tanzania

This paper applies empirical trade theory to explaining the revealed comparative advantage in manufactured exports of Kenya and Tanzania. Exports are treated as a whole and also distinguished by destination (developed countries, developing countries and Africa). The undeveloped industrial and trade structures of these countries lead to low explanatory power of the equations, but the results for individual variables are generally expected and of interest.     

The First World War and the origins of the dual policy of development in Kenya 1914–1922

This article examines the impact of the First World War and its aftermath on decisions relating to the economic development of Kenya. The rather incoherent and inconsistent pre-war policy towards development was transformed by the coming of the war into a concentrated and exclusive concern for the future of European settler agriculture. The labour and taxation aspects of post-war policy in Kenya aroused much opposition. The Colonial Office in the face of challenges from the settlers, the Indian population and from rioting Africans and of a financial crisis in Kenya declared itself in favour of a dual policy of development.     

The determinants of interregional migration in Kenya

The polytomous logistic model is applied to unpublished census data from Kenya to test recent theoretical advances in migration theory. In addition to reporting econometric results for interregional migration in Kenya, the accumulated knowledge on the key determinants of migration, as reported in some 20 econometric studies on internal migration in developing countries, are summarized.     

Regional disparity and economic growth in China: The impact of labor market distortions

The paper tries to analyze China's regional disparity in a framework of convergence in neoclassical theory of growth. We employ comparative productivity of agricultural labor as an index of labor market distortion to see the impact of difference of labor market maturity among regions on regional growth performance, controlling for a set of variables determining growth rate. The finding is that (1) there is an evidence of conditional convergence in China's growth, namely, per capita GDP in the initiative year is negatively related to growth rates in following years, (2) labor market distortion negatively impacts regional growth rates, and (3) many other variables used at previous studies impact growth performance, as is expected by neoclassical theory of growth.     

Fertility in Sub‐Saharan African Countries with Consideration to Health and Poverty*

Abstract: Fertility has begun to fall in sub‐Saharan Africa but it remains high on average and particularly for a few countries. This paper examines African fertility using a panel data set of 47 sub‐Saharan countries between 1962 and 2003. Fixed and random country effect estimates are made in models where the explanatory variables are suggested by the theory of the demographic transition as modified by Caldwell (1982) . Special attention is paid to the economic status of women, urbanization, the poverty level, and the health of the population including total health expenditures and the prevalence of HIV/AIDS. The results support Caldwell's hypothesis and are generally supportive of hypothesis that a fertility transition is occurring. HIV/AIDS is found to have a negative impact on fertility.     

Agricultural pricing policy in Kenya

This paper examines Kenya's agricultural pricing policy, its role in the development of key sectors of the agricultural economy during the 1970s and its impact on different classes of producers. Toward this end, the paper describes the process of agricultural price determination in Kenya, and examines trends in real producer price indices for selected crop groupings and by size of holding.The most important finding of the paper is that agricultural pricing policy has been used in Kenya to create incentives for the growth of marketed agricultural production. In addition, the paper shows that the Government of Kenya has also used pricing and marketing policy instruments to achieve its goal of promoting the agricultural development of smallholders, who constitute the dominant mode of agricultural production in Kenya. Significantly, these findings are contrary to the widely accepted notion that pricing policy in developing countries has uniformly been biased in favor of the urban sector and against agricultural producers.     

DETERMINANTS OF SCHOOL ENROLMENT AND EDUCATION ATTAINMENT: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM KENYA1

This paper investigates the determinants of demand for schooling in Kenya. Probit and ordered probit methods are used to model enrolment and attainment respectively. The results show that child characteristics, parental education and other household characteristics, quality and cost of schooling are important determinants of demand for education services in Kenya. The results further show that girls would be more affected by policy changes than boys. The findings call for targeting in efforts to boost and sustain demand for schooling in Kenya. The study recommends immediate policy interventions focusing on improving quality of education and poverty alleviation.     

A Model of Occupational Choice Applied to Rural Kenya

Abstract: The paper studies occupational patterns in rural Kenya using a large cross-sectional data collected from farm households in seven districts. Consistent with the agrarian nature of the Kenyan economy, we find that 74 per cent of rural households have farming as their principal occupation. The remaining 26 per cent are engaged in nonfarm activities. The existing rural occupational structure is shown to be a consequence of rational career decisions of households. Education and proximity to market centers are the key factors in the transformation of occupational structure in rural Kenya. Résumé: Cet article analyse les schémas de choix professionnels dans les zones rurales du Kenya en se basant sur un vaste esnemble de données recueillies auprès des ménages ruraux de sept districts. Comme le laissait présager le caractère agricole de l'économie kényane, 74 pour cent des ménages ruraux ont l'agriculture pour activité principale; les 26 pour cent restants sont engagés dans des activités non agricoles. Il est démontré que la structure actuelle des choix de professions dans les zones rurales découle de décisions rationnelles prises par les ménages. L'éducation et la proximité des centres de commercialisation sont les facteurs prépondérants qui conditionnent la transformation des schémas professionnels dans les zones rurales du Kenya.     

Remittances' Influence on Housing Construction Demand in Sub‐Saharan Africa: The Case of Kenya

Abstract: Although it is well documented that immigrants maintain economic and social ties with their communities of origin through remittances, the role of remittances in asset acquisition for most African countries is yet to be documented. This study provides empirical estimates for the impact of remittances from abroad on housing construction demand in Kenya using time series data for the period 1970–2008. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) modelling process is employed to capture the effect of remittances and other variables on housing construction demand. The computed short‐ and long‐run elasticities indicate that inbound remittances are one of the determinants of housing construction demand in Kenya. Other significant determinants include income, interest rates and urbanization growth.     

Explaining Export Duration in Kenya

This study establishes the hazard rate of exports from Kenya and identifies factors that explain the duration of exports using a discrete-time random effects logit regression model. A difference-in-differences estimator is used to assess the effects of AGOA. Export data between Kenya and 176 partners over 21 years (1995–2016) is used. We find that first-year survival rate is 39%. The median duration of Kenya’s exports is 1 year. AGOA enhances export survival, especially for apparels. COMESA also increases export survival but EAC has a dampening effect, even in SSA region. Differentiated products unlike capital-intensive products improve export survival.     

Openness and trade policy in China: an industrial analysis

This paper analyzes the tariff structure and its determinants in China, with our research conducted under the rubric of endogenous policy theory. We study the tariff rates for 95 industries in China in 1996. The potential determinants of tariff rates are collected from an array of variables characterizing industries in 1995. A principal component method is used to reduce these variables into four major dimensions. The first component comprises the information on the composition of employees broken down by age, education, and job classification. The second component is underlined by the profitability of the industry. The third component consists of those variables not picked up with high salience in the first two components. More closely resembling those in the second component than the first, these variables include gross product, foreign capital, inventory, sales revenue, and total loss. The fourth component receives high loadings from two variables: the number of firms in the industry and the number of firms that incur net losses in their operation. Using variables identified by the principal component analysis and postulated by the variants of the endogenous trade theory, regression analysis finds that the trade policy in China is mainly defined by an industrial policy favoring high-tech industries and a social policy minimizing social instability. The implications for China's entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) are also provided in the paper.     

高校扩招、人口迁移与房价上涨

基于高校扩招背景下人口迁移的新视角对房价上涨的机理进行分析,并采用全国35个大中城市的面板数据对命题进行检验,结果表明,城市房价上涨的最主要推动力来源于迁移人口的新增住房需求,而随着高校扩招政策实施,在所有迁移人口当中,高校毕业大学生成为了其中购买能力较高、人口最多、自由迁移能力和动力最强的一个群体。他们来自全国各地,从高校毕业后却集中向一些大中城市迁移,对当地房价形成了显著的正向影响。由于受购买力等因素限制,大学生人口迁移对房价的影响存在滞后性,毕业后第3年的影响最大,之后第4、第5年影响有所缩小。文章也证实了反映居民收入的工资收入、反映货币因素的信贷量、反映人口增长的人口密度、反映投资性需求的上一期房价等变量对城市房价上涨具有显著正向影响。     

Heading for the Hills? Effects of Community Flood Management on Local Adaptation to Flood Risks

The Community Rating System (CRS) program was implemented by the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in 1990 as an optional program to encourage communities to voluntarily engage in flood mitigation initiatives. This article uses national census tract‐level data from 1980 to 2010 to estimate whether CRS participation and flood risk affect a community's local patterns of population change. We employ an instrumental‐variables strategy to address the potential endogeneity of CRS participation, based on community‐scale demographic factors that predict when a tract's host community joins the CRS. The results find significant effects of the CRS program and flood risk on population change. Taken together, the findings point to greater propensity for community‐scale flood management in areas with more newcomers and programs such as CRS stabilizing population, though not especially in flood‐prone areas. We observe the CRS neither displacing population toward lower‐risk areas nor attracting more people to flood‐prone areas.     

Is Livestock Important for Risk Behaviour and Activity Choice of Rural Households? Evidence from Kenya

This paper presents an alternative view on causes of differentiationin rural Kenya, focusing on the role of livestock as liquidassets. We use cross-sectional household data in Central andWestern Kenya. We first examine the extent to which householdsare liquidity-constrained in relation with livestock holdings.It is suggested that many rural households are currently liquidity-constrainedand liquidity constraints are closely associated with cattleholdings. We also find that a differentiation process in whichthe households with high endowments and livestock can augmenttheir income by directing more inputs to high-return activities,while poor households who are more likely to be liquidity-constrainedcannot. Our results show that the difference in liquid assetsand associated credit constraints is one of the possible causesfor differentiation of households in rural Kenya.     

Macroeconomic implications of population aging: Evidence from Japan

Population aging is an important feature of Japan’s economy, which since 2006 has become a super-aged society. Changes in the age distribution of the population have important macroeconomic implications. Using annual data for 1960–2015, this study tests whether population age shares have long run influences on domestic saving, domestic investment, real GDP, inflation, the fiscal balance, and the current account balance. Cointegration is found between each macroeconomic variable and the demographic variables, which is a key finding of the analysis. The main empirical findings from the long-run cointegrating equations are that the effects of demographic change on the macroeconomic variables are statistically significant and quite strong. Alternative variants of the United Nation’s population projections provide further evidence of the importance of the demographic changes for Japan’s macroeconomic future. This study finds that future trends of key macroeconomic variables are not monotonic, but rather that long swings in the demographic factors produce a mixture of moderate growth periods and episodes of GDP stagnation.     

企业间合作关系研究的理论视角：述评与比较

和其他企业结成合作关系是企业的一种重要战略行为,围绕着企业间合作关系研究有四种流行的理论视角：交易成本、资源依赖、社会网络和制度主义理论。论文综述和评论了这四种理论视角的基本观点和代表性的实证研究,并从前提假定、解释变量、理论机制、研究议题、主要关注的合作形式和经验研究层次等多个方面对它们进行了系统比较。不同理论的交叉融合已经成为企业间合作关系研究的重要趋势。     

人口结构对住宅价格的影响——基于北京地区的实证研究

文章以北京市为例,使用1990—2011年北京地区人口结构和商品住宅价格数据,分析该地区人口结构变量对于房价的动态影响。文章发现,北京地区房价受到劳动人口比重、人口城镇化率、第三产业从业人口比重等三个人口结构变量的显著影响。其中,劳动人口比重对于房价的正向影响持续最短;第三产业从业人口比重对于房价的正向影响持续最长,影响力度也是最大;同时,人口结构变量整体对于房价的影响具有长期性。     

危机后对“华盛顿共识”和“北京共识”的思考——关于经济自由与经济增长的经验分析

本文分别使用世界各国的截面数据和中国的时间序列数据分析经济自由度指数与经济增长率的关系。结果表明,在控制了劳动力人口、资本存量以及人力资本等变量后,经济自由度与经济增长率之间存在非常密切的正向(因果)关系。我们的工作不仅为亚当.斯密的自由经济理论提供了新证据,而且证明了中国的经济增长正是得益于经济自由度的提高,中国并不是自由经济理论的一个例外。     

基于SEM的网购口碑视角下消费者回购意愿影响机制的实证研究

基于信号理论和理性行为理论,以店铺信誉和在线评论作为前因变量,引入品牌态度作为中介变量,以体验感知作为调节变量,构建网络口碑视角下消费者回购意愿模型。通过SEM分析方法,对各因素关系进行检验。结果表明:店铺综合体验星级、店铺评分、在线评论中的评论形式对品牌态度有正向的作用;体验感知对店铺综合体验星级、店铺评分、评论形式、评论相似度与品牌态度之间的关系有正向的调节作用;品牌态度正向影响回购意愿;在线评论的评论相似度和差评负向影响品牌态度;体验感知负向影响差评与品牌态度的关系。