Measuring poverty with noisy and corrected estimates of annual consumption: Evidence from Nigeria

An opportunity to improve measurement and modelling of poverty in Africa arises from recent intra‐year panel surveys that observe household consumption in post‐planting and post‐harvest periods. Observing the same household twice lets an intra‐year correlation be estimated, which can be used to form a corrected estimate of annual consumption. The usual approach surveys consumption for just one short period, like a week or month, and extrapolates to an annual total. This may adequately estimate mean annual consumption for samples spread over a year but overstates dispersion. The resulting noise in consumption estimates inflates measures of poverty and inequality and creates misclassification errors that bias logit and probit models of poverty determinants. This study uses data from the 2012/2013 Nigeria General Household Survey panel to show effects on poverty measures of using annual estimates extrapolated from short‐period surveys. With the corrected extrapolation method that uses intra‐year correlations to adjust for inflated variances, Nigeria's poverty headcount rate falls by one half. Hence, much of the poverty measured in cross‐sectional surveys is transient poverty, for which different policy interventions are needed than for alleviating chronic poverty.     

社会资本在减轻农村贫困中的作用：文献述评与研究展望

近年来,社会资本在减轻农村贫困中的作用逐渐成为发展经济学家关注的一个热点。本文分别从静态和动态两个视角综述了相关研究的思路和方法：从静态视角来看,信任对于减少绝对贫困有积极的作用,但某些形式的社会资本难以减轻绝对贫困,关于社会资本是否能减轻相对贫困则尚未取得一致的认识;从动态视角来看,社会资本通过非正式保险的机制平滑消费、减轻暂时贫困,通过促进融资和创业、保护产权、促进公共品提供和劳动力流动,有助于消除长期贫困。总的来看,随着市场化进程的深入,社会资本反贫困的积极作用有减弱的趋势。本文基于理论评述,提出了深化社会资本的减贫理论机制（尤其是对相对贫困的作用机制）、市场化进程中的社会资本反贫困机制、改进社会资本测量、加强因果效应识别等未来的研究方向。     

社会资本在减轻农村贫困中的作用：文献述评与研究展望

近年来,社会资本在减轻农村贫困中的作用逐渐成为发展经济学家关注的一个热点。本文分别从静态和动态两个视角综述了相关研究的思路和方法：从静态视角来看,信任对于减少绝对贫困有积极的作用,但某些形式的社会资本难以减轻绝对贫困,关于社会资本是否能减轻相对贫困则尚未取得一致的认识;从动态视角来看,社会资本通过非正式保险的机制平滑消费、减轻暂时贫困,通过促进融资和创业、保护产权、促进公共品提供和劳动力流动,有助于消除长期贫困。总的来看,随着市场化进程的深入,社会资本反贫困的积极作用有减弱的趋势。本文基于理论评述,提出了深化社会资本的减贫理论机制（尤其是对相对贫困的作用机制）、市场化进程中的社会资本反贫困机制、改进社会资本测量、加强因果效应识别等未来的研究方向。     

Food Price Crisis,Poverty, and Inequality

This paper simulates how a doubling of food prices affects absolute poverty and the food‐price‐adjusted real income distribution. We assume unsubsidized world food prices in order to derive the cost of poverty deepening and poverty expansion. We also estimate the degree to which inequality increases if no measures are put in place to offset rising food prices. Both measures are vulnerability indicators useful for social policy planning. Our results show that low‐income countries experience dramatic increases in absolute poverty as a result of doubling food prices. Middle‐income countries experience the greatest decrease in absolute income, which contributes most to an increase in world income inequality. The paper estimates that the global dollar value of the absolute poverty gap ($1.25/day) has the potential to increase by 400%, with poverty deepening accounting for two thirds of the increase.     

Social security for young people amidst high poverty and unemployment: Some policy options for South Africa

South African youth experience extremely high levels of unemployment and poverty. Currently there is no social assistance for low-income young adults in South Africa unless they are disabled. Interventions are needed that can achieve widespread poverty alleviation, as well as help facilitate economic participation to improve lifelong earnings. In this article, six examples of social security policy options are considered, including five grants ranging from an unconditional non-means-tested grant for young people to a conditional grant for young people in training or education, plus an ‘Opportunities voucher’ that is administered through the social security system but paid out to organisations offering youth education or work opportunities. Using a tax and benefit microsimulation model to simulate the five grants, we estimate the potential numbers reached and cost, as well as the impact of these six options on poverty.     

The measurement of poverty: A review of attempts to quantify the poor, with special reference to India

Poverty can be measured relatively, but a measure of absolute poverty is more useful for making cross-cultural comparisons. Unfortunately, the measurement of absolute poverty is difficult, because of inter-individual and intra-individual variations in minimum needs over time. As a result, simplistic assessment methods and confusion have marked many of the estimates of absolute poverty in less-developed countries. Using Indian material as an example, this paper attempts to trace the progress of the methodology; to explain how widely varying poverty estimates have come about; and to draw some tentative conclusions about the extent and pattern of absolute poverty in India today.     

A distributional approach to comparing vulnerability,applied to rural provinces in Thailand and Vietnam

Vulnerability to poverty is an important social indicator of well-being. Yet, comparisons of vulnerability over time or space lack robustness as long as they are based on single measures or use specific poverty lines. We demonstrate that a distributional analysis, based on stochastic dominance orders, can help. Using data from six rural provinces of Thailand and Vietnam, we establish cumulative distribution functions for income and consumption at the provincial level and show how they can provide ethically robust vulnerability comparisons.     

Some methods of poverty analysis: An application to Iranian data, 1975–1976

Most analyses of poverty in developing countries are based on the so-called poverty incidence, i.e. the proportion of poor households in the total household population. This paper provides estimates of poverty in Iran which are more detailed in two respects: first, it estimates the number of poor based on poverty lines for households of different sizes and second, it estimates the extent of poverty with the so-called poverty gaps. Both aspects of poverty are incorporated in the Sen index, which is also estimated. On the basis of these estimates a poverty map for Iran is drawn up. It shows that poverty diminished substantially between 1971 and 1975 and that poverty is most concentrated in the regions of Khorasan and Sistan & Baluchistan.     

A conceptualisation of poverty in rural India

This paper investigates the different aspects of poverty in rural India. Based largely on data from a region of Bihar, the various characteristics and sources of poverty are enumerated and discussed, including food intake, other consumption, health, security, education and status as characteristics; and occupation, employment, wages, assets, organization and demographic factors as sources. It is argued that poverty must be seen as a multivariate phenomenon; policy to affect any one aspect of poverty is likely to be rendered ineffective by negative feedback from other variables in the poverty complex. Only a simultaneous attack on all aspects of poverty can be successful.     

Dietary Diversity,Food Security and Undernourishment: The Vietnamese Evidence*

As is widely known, Vietnam experienced a rise in living standards and a decline in expenditure poverty during the first half of the 1990s. This paper extends this knowledge by providing evidence on the Vietnamese experience of food security, undernourishment and poverty from the late 1990s to the early part of the new millennium. The results suggest that poor households did not experience increases in food consumption, calorie intake and dietary diversity of the same magnitude as non‐poor households. Nevertheless, Vietnam experienced impressive reductions in both calorie deprivation and expenditure poverty at the turn of the century. Non‐poor households, in particular, experienced spectacular increases in calorie intake and dietary diversity during the period 1997/1998–2004. This paper also reports regression results which point to the role of urbanization and improvement in education levels in promoting dietary diversity and nutrient intake. The present study finds evidence of sharp regional differences in calorie intake and calorie costs, which suggests that the authorities should set provincial poverty lines, contrary to the current practice adopted by Vietnam's General Statistical Office.     

How Robust Is Indonesia’s Poverty Profile? Adjusting for Differences in Needs

Poverty profiles showing how the magnitude of poverty differs across subgroups of a population are important tools in designing effective social protection programs. Using data from the March 2013 round of the National Socio-economic Survey (Susenas) and the fourth round of the Indonesia Family Life Survey (2007–8), I explore the sensitivity of Indonesia’s poverty profile to different assumptions about the relative costs of individuals, taking into account differences in age, gender, body weight, and physical activity levels. I adopt parameter estimates for my simulation exercises from various Indonesia-specific publications, as well as from a joint intergovernmental consultation on nutrition. I compare my estimates with the per capita scale used by Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the central statistics agency. My findings suggest that the age–poverty relationship in Indonesia is sensitive to assumptions about the relative costs of individuals, with all alternative scales showing substantially lower poverty incidence among young children than by BPS’s estimate. Overall, however, I find that Indonesia’s poverty profile is relatively robust.     

Anti-crisis measures of population social protection

The practice of strengthening of the state social function within a crisis period is considered in this paper, as are certain measures of financial and organizational support of different groups of the population in the employment and consumption sphere aimed at prevention of growth of poverty and continuing of implementation of previously selected social policy directions.     

Robust Estimates of Changes in Poverty and Inequality in Post‐Independence Namibia

We estimate changes in the distribution of household consumption expenditure in Namibia since independence in 1990 and the effects on poverty. To produce comparability between two household surveys, we use survey‐matching techniques, and we apply the framework of stochastic dominance to test the robustness of our results. The results reveal a significant decrease in the poverty headcount over the period and small but insignificant decreases in the country's extremely high levels of inequality. Decomposition analysis shows that poverty reduction in Namibia is largely driven by growth in mean incomes rather than redistribution. Even so, there have been important changes in inequality among different social groups especially as educational attainment has replaced ethnicity as the main determinant of between‐group inequality.     

The world economic crisis and the children: A United States case study

This is a review of the United States experience with issues of child health and services, as they relate to changes in economic trends. No existing data systems are entirely adequate for reporting on the current health status of children, an important consideration for the monitoring of children's health in the United States is the focus on subgroups such as those who are disadvantaged for reasons of poverty, discrimination or geographic isolation. Ample evidence exists that children living in poverty suffer adverse health consequences and that the proportion of children living in poverty in the United States has increased steadily since 1975 and dramatically since 1981. Most measures of health status and health risks for children show steady improvements througout the 1970s. The exercise of public responsibility for financing and providing essential services and supports held constant or improved during this recession period, especially during the recession of 1974–1975. The health status and risks for children since 1981 appear to be adversely affected which must be attributed to a combination of circumstances that include serious recession, increased poverty rates for households with children and diminished health benefits and social support services. These findings suggest that when either local or widespread economic reversals are anticipated, health services and social supports for children need to be expanded rather than contracted.     

Measurement of deprivation and poverty based on the proportion spent on food: An exploratory exercise

This paper attempts to broaden the scope of poverty measurement. First, a brief review of measurements based on monetary and nutritional norms is presented. Then, it is suggested that data on the proportion spent on food (PSF) by per capita expenditure can be exploited to measure the incidence of deprivation and the incidence of poverty. It is postulated that until the food needs are satisfied, people spend relatively more of their incremental income on food and this behaviour reveals itself as increasing or invariant PSF as income (or expenditure) increases up to a critical level. The proportion of people up to that critical level are deprived of the required food and the proportion constitutes the incidence of deprivation. The average expenditure at the deprivation point (the PSF level from where its decline is clear-cut and smooth) can be used to develop an arbitrary poverty line. Data for rural India are used to illustrate the measurement of deprivation and poverty.     

Pro-poor growth,poverty and inequality in rural Vietnam

This study explores the effects of Vietnam's transition on the welfare of different ethnic groups in rural Vietnam. It draws on three rounds of national household surveys in 2002, 2004 and 2006. It is first observed that the pace of poverty reduction for minorities surpassed the majority over the period 2002–2006, although poor people were still concentrated in the minority groups throughout the period. Secondly, the disparity in living standards has been widening. In particular, inequality within both the majority and minority groups increased over the period. Thirdly, the study shows that the effect of economic growth on poverty is estimated to have been greater if inequality remained constant. It is also noted that the impacts of economic growth on poverty vary across different ethnic groups. Finally, regression decompositions of within inequality have confirmed that the main driver of inequality is not the same among ethnic groups. Given the diversity across different ethnic groups, we can conclude that government policy aimed at equal access to infrastructure and more equal distribution of assets, such as land, for ethnic minority groups would lead to more equal distribution of consumption and poverty reduction of those groups. Also, consideration of local needs would be necessary in designing and implementing public policies, given the heterogeneous socio-economic circumstances surrounding each ethnic minority group.     

The objectives of development

As the author was one of the early writers stressing the well-being of the mass of the people and treating growth as a means rather than an end, the Editor asked him to describe the circumstances and add his present thoughts on the subject. The early part of the paper describes the evolution of the author's thinking on the objectives of development up to the publication of Accelerating Development (1966), and the Colombian Plan of the Four Strategies (1971).The latter part seeks to define objectives, pointing out that concern with poverty does not necessarily imply a direct attack on poverty.Further overriding objectives include the lessening of the ‘deprivation effect’ by reducing the gap in international consumption levels, and better control over the environment in its many aspects, primarily to ensure survival and ultimately to promote well-being.     

A descriptive study of the dynamics of relative poverty in the Western Cape province of South Africa

This article provides statistical estimates of the level of relative poverty over time in the Western Cape province of South Africa, using data sets from Statistics South Africa. It seems that relatively large numbers of Black and Coloured households are chronically poor, and that substandard education and living conditions are likely to be causing this situation. The authors propose short-term and long-term poverty alleviation plans that aim to increase accessibility to social services and to raise educational levels, to ensure sustainable livelihoods for the people concerned.     

Censored Quantile Regressions of Chronic and Transient Seasonal Poverty in Rwanda

It is crucial for social policy in Less Developed Countriesto identify correlates of poverty at the household level. Thishas been done in the literature by estimating household povertyequations typically with Tobit and Probit models. However, whenthe errors in these equations are non-normal and heteroscedastic,which is usually expected, these models deliver biased estimates.Using quarterly data from Rwanda in 1983, we reject the normalityand homoscedasticity assumptions for household chronic and transientlatent poverty equations. We treat this problem by estimatingcensored quantile regressions. Our results of censored quantileregressions and of inconsistent Tobit regressions are substantiallydifferent. However, in the case of chronic poverty the signsof the apparently significant coefficients are generally inagreement, while for seasonal transient poverty different variableshave significant effects for the two estimation methods. Oursecond contribution is to study, for the first time, correlatesof poverty indicators based on quarterly consumptions. Our resultsshow that in Rwanda different correlates are significant forchronic poverty and for transient seasonal poverty. The effectsof the main inputs (land and labour) are more important forthe chronic component of poverty than for the transient one.Household location and socio-demographic characteristics playimportant roles that are consistent with usual explanationsof poverty in the literature.     

Updating Poverty Maps with Panel Data

This paper extends the methodology of Elbers, C., Lanjouw, J. O., & Lanjouw, P. (2003). Micro level estimation of poverty and inequality. Econometrica 71(1), 355–364 and presents a low cost approach to arriving at small area welfare estimates for non-census years. The approach requires panel data and the estimation of a relation between per capita consumption from the year of interest and household characteristics from the census year. The method is illustrated for Uganda. It is shown that with the exception of the North progress in rural poverty reduction was broadly shared during 1992–99. Areas with high initial levels of poverty appear to have benefited less from growth.