Free trade and income redistribution in some developing and newly industrialized countries

A competitive general equilibrium model of production is specified and the long-run comparative static elasticities of changing prices on factor prices are examined in eight developing and newly industrialized countries. Unskilled labor in these developing countries stands to gain from a program of global free trade characterized by increased manufacturing exports and falling prices of imported business services, while capital owners and skilled labor lose. Results are contrasted with developed countries, the United States in particular, where unskilled labor will lose while capital and skilled labor enjoy gains with global free trade.     

Can soft power help the IMF make the world more stable?

In an integrated world, one of the more intractable problems we have to deal with is how to ensure all countries undertake macroeconomic policies that are in the global interest even when these go against short-term domestic political compulsions. It is unlikely that countries will sign up to a common set of policy rules, nor is it probable that peer pressure alone will convince countries to co-operate. This paper argues that multilateral institutions have to do more to sell the global policy consensus to the influential public in each country, so that leaders are pushed by domestic constituencies to internalize the global good. Rather than solely a top down process of global policy-making, where grand summits make little progress, we also need a bottom up approach, where the summiteers will feel the pressure for global deals from their primary domestic constituencies.     

The Tet offensive: A turning point in America's Asian policy

A series of financial crises in emerging market economies during the 1990s have been a catalyst for efforts to strengthen the international financial system. Indeed, much has been done to strengthen the architecture of the international financial system, both in terms of crisis prevention and crisis management. The powerful G‐7 countries have made it clear that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) plays a significant role in shaping the new global financial architecture. However, is the IMF up to the task? This paper argues that despite its many limitations, the IMF is an important institution that can strengthen the global financial system. The paper begins with a discussion of what the IMF is and what it is not This will help put in perspective the nature, mandate, and role of this much‐misunderstood global institution. The second section reviews some of the recent reforms the IMF has introduced to effectively carry out its new function. While these reforms are hardly revolutionary, they nevertheless, will significantly strengthen both the domestic and international financial system. The third section examines the Achilles heel of the IMF—that its policies promote moral hazard. How effectively have the IMF reforms addressed this? It is argued that although the problems associated with moral hazard can never be fully eliminated, the IMF reforms will greatly mitigate the problem. It is very likely that for the foreseeable future, the IMF will continue to serve as an informal international lender of last resort.     

全球排放贸易体系:一个幻想?

目前存在一种流行的观点认为,未来应该建立一个全球范围的碳排放交易体系。本文质疑该观点,提出:1)全球排放交易体系的福利效果并不确定,可能主要能够降低的是发达国家的减排成本,对于发展中国家而言更可能造成福利下降的后果;2)各国参与全球公共物品的提供,应该根据共同但有区别责任的原则致力于形成"林达尔均衡",而不是全球排放贸易体系所代表的"瓦尔拉斯均衡";3)推动全球排放贸易体系的动力在于发达国家产业集团对规制的偏好和利益,而发达国家优先采取排放交易政策,主要是出于国内及国际政治考虑,而非因为全球福利最大化;4)发展中国家在考虑国内气候政策时面临选择的困境,需要谨慎考虑。     

石油冲击对“金砖国家”经济增长和通胀的影响

本文从外生性、长期乘子和短期动态乘子研究石油冲击对"金砖国家"经济增长和通货膨胀的影响。文章引入了Bootstrap方法对短期动态乘子进行了统计推断,结果表明:石油价格对"金砖国家"经济具有外生性;长期而言,油价会显著拉动巴西和俄罗斯的经济增长,还会显著推高俄罗斯的通货膨胀;短期而言,油价会显著刺激巴西、俄罗斯和南非的经济增长,还会显著推高俄罗斯、印度和中国的通货膨胀。本文认为,石油冲击不是导致世界经济衰退的主要原因,但它可能是形成全世界范围内通货膨胀不可忽略的重要因素。     

The international regulation of intellectual property

The International Regulation of Intellectual Property. — The WTO Agreement on Trade-Related Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) will usher in a markedly stronger global system of defining and protecting intellectual property rights (IPRs). This paper first discusses the concept of intellectual property and the need for its protection and regulation. It presents evidence on the wide variations in IPRs across countries and discusses how TRIPS will affect these differences. Theoretical predictions about how this stronger system will influence global trade, investment, and technology innovation and diffusion are ambiguous, but limited empirical evidence suggests a modest positive effect overall. However, the distribution of costs and benefits will vary.     

全球经济不平衡、全球合作和治理向何处去?——ICMB国际研讨会侧记

日内瓦国际货币银行研究中心(ICMB)2012年度重点问题报告的主题是国际合作和国际治理,多位来自主要国家和国际组织的专家学者针对该报告进行了研讨。本文认为,欧美学界、金融界主流对全球外部经济不平衡问题存在思维定势,其他重大问题未能得到足够重视;在中国问题上,亚洲、发展中国家及较小的发达国家与欧美发达大国的立场和观点存在较大差异;加强中国金融界与欧洲金融界的学术交流和政策对话大有可为。     

Capital Flows, FDI, and Technology Spillovers: Evidence from Arab Countries

The aim of this paper is to study the role and significance of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the economic performance of the Arab countries. It first highlights the importance of international capital and financial flows in the Arab and developing countries, and then concentrates on the global distribution of FDI and its position in the Arab world. This discussion is followed by an analysis of the effect of FDI on Arab technological development and total factor productivity (TFP). The paper concludes with policy recommendations and suggestions.     

我国参与国际碳金融市场面临的问题及对策

当前,应对气候变化已成为全球各领域关注的问题,其中市场机制和金融工具发挥着重要的作用。本文将从我国参与国际碳金融市场现状谈起,分析我国参与发达国家维持的碳金融规则、秩序时面临的问题,并给出相应的对策。     

A comprehensive economic partnership between India and Japan: Impact,prospects and challenges

This paper examines the benefits and challenges of the 2011 Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between India and Japan, specifically the ways to maximize gains from their complementary economies, trade and FDI relations. It also measures the partnership's economy-wide impact empirically, and its role in regional and global integration. An analysis of the trade intensity indices shows that the bilateral trade flow is small considering the other country's importance in world trade, suggesting the existence of great potential for improving trade relations. The computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis of the economy wide impact of the CEPA suggests that tariff reductions will create a marginal increase in output growth for both India and Japan as compared to the business as usual scenario. In terms of the effect on exports, India's exports to Japan would increase more than those of Japan to India while positive net welfare gains are expected for both countries as a result of trade liberalization. This is in contrast to the study by Ahmed (2010), which finds welfare gains only for Japan, not for India. Furthermore, one of the striking results of the paper is that Japan will not reduce its heavy reliance on the Chinese market, though India will. In general, India, compared to Japan, will gain more, if CEPA materializes by 2020. Japan too will have welfare gains in spite of opening up the agriculture sector with 100% tariff reduction by 2020. Both countries need to accelerate structural reforms to remove the border barriers in addition to reducing tariffs, in order to reap maximum benefit of their economic partnership.     

Economic integration, market size and the welfare effects of trade liberalisation

Economic Integration, Market Size and the Welfare Effects of Trade Liberalisation. — This paper examines the welfare effects of regional and global integration in a model where market size matters. Regional integration leads to higher welfare in the countries of a preferential trading arrangement (PTA), but to lower welfare outside. In case the countries also decide to form a customs union (CU), both countries will experience further gains if the creation of the CU means that the average external trade barriers are raised. In turn, the outside country will in this case experience further welfare losses. If it retaliates and creates a trade war, this will lower welfare in all countries. In contrast, global integration mostly benefits both PTA countries and outside countries.     

The Impact of COVID-19 on Chinese trade and production: An empirical analysis of processing trade with Japan and the US

The COVID-19 pandemic severely disrupted international trade, leading countries to grapple with product shortages and firms to experience major supply chain issues. These challenges increased production costs and significantly contributed to lower trade and higher inflation. In this paper, we examine the impact of COVID-19 on Chinese trade through its two main trading partners: Japan and the US. By differentiating products by product type and processing status, we find evidence that products in the middle of the global supply chain were most affected by the pandemic and that the severity of the shock depends on the partner country’s role in the global supply chain. Additionally, we find that Chinese exports are more impacted than Chinese imports, regardless of processing status. These findings are largely consistent with economic theory. Understanding that the effects of global shocks vary by product and country will help guide policies that minimize supply chain disruptions.     

Regional integration in Africa versus higher levels of intra-Africa trade

Regional integration arrangements have mushroomed worldwide, both on intra-regional and extra-regional levels. On an intra-regional level, Africa faces a complicated grid of multiple and overlapping membership of several regional integration organisations, aiming to increase intra-regional trade and cooperation. In this study, a comparative analysis will be executed, based on an intra-regional breakdown of trade, using the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa classification of countries according to geographical region. The level of intra-regional trade will be determined, whereafter the level of inter-regional trade will be established and, lastly, trade with the rest of the world. It seems that despite the high level of regional integration within Africa, it does not necessarily stimulate intra-Africa trade to expected levels as proposed by literature. A regional integration strategy that would cause deeper integration is crucial if the continent is to play a rightful role in the global arena.     

全球价值链与西部地区资源型产业升级

全球生产网络的形成使产品的价值创造环节分散于不同国家和地区,这无疑为发展中国家嵌入全球价值创造环节,提高生产和创新能力,实现产业升级带来了机遇。本文将我国西部地区资源型产业的发展纳入全球产业链的范畴,从全球价值链的角度研究我国西部地区资源型产业的升级问题。     

COVID-19 and trade: Simulated asymmetric loss

This paper uses 2018 data as a benchmark to build a numerical 26-country global general equilibrium model with trade cost and an endogenous trade imbalance structure. We assume that COVID-19 will increase the trade cost between countries and decrease labor supply in production. We use China’s trade data from January to April in 2020 to calibrate the influence level parameters and then simulate the trade effects of COVID-19 in China, the EU, the US, and the world. Our simulation results find that all countries’ trade and exports will be significantly hurt by the pandemic. Due to the trade diversion effect and the price growth effect, some countries will see an increase in import trade. Comparatively, the pandemic has the most negative impact on global trade, followed by the EU, the US, and China. As the pandemic deepens, the negative impact on trade will increase. The worldwide pandemic has the most significant impact on US trade, with an effect about 1.5 times that of the average world effect.     

Japan's economic slowdown and its global implications: a review of the economic modelling

Despite its role as a driver of global economic growth through the 1970s, in recent decades the rise of China has seen the international importance of Japan's economic performance recede from the public discourse. This is notwithstanding its continuing key role as economic partner to both industrial and developing countries and changes in its economic performance that would otherwise be a matter for global concern. In particular, the tendency for the Japanese economy and its external trade to stagnate not only has immediate consequences for global performance but also foreshadows a path to industrial transition for other key Asian economies. This paper reviews quantitative studies of Japan's performance. It identifies a paucity of results addressing global implications and suggests new research in this direction.     

中国高科技企业OFDI速度对创新绩效的影响——基于总体创新、颠覆式创新和渐进式创新视角

文章采用2008-2017年中国高科技上市公司数据,依据海外子公司投资动机计算企业基于深度和广度的技术寻求型OFDI速度,并此基础上以投资速度对企业总体创新、颠覆式创新和渐进式创新的影响研究为中心,实证检验吸收能力在其中起到的调节作用。结果表明：（1）无论是基于深度还是广度的技术寻求型OFDI速度与企业创新绩效均呈现倒U型关系;（2）吸收能力对企业OFDI速度与创新绩效之间的关系起到负向调节作用;（3）从投资地区异质性看,高吸收能力的企业无论在发达还是发展中国家基本可通过快速技术寻求型投资提升企业创新绩效,但低吸收能力的企业更适合以较低的投资速度进行技术寻求;另外,在发达国家的OFDI尤其可以帮助企业提升颠覆式创新绩效。     

EU–China and the non-transparent race for inward FDI

In this paper it is argued that the restructuring following the stiffer competition stemming from increased global integration will trigger a race between countries to attract inward foreign direct investment (FDI). It is further argued that this race consists of last minute efforts and tailor-made packages designed by governments and their agencies to temporarily improve their country's otherwise inferior profile. This race is non-transparent and the factors used to compete for inward FDI (the ‘elements’ of the race) deviate from those of long-term efforts to develop a favourable investment climate and improve productivity, as well as medium-term efforts such as lowering corporate taxes. The paper elaborates on the research problem of properly understanding the drivers of inward FDI in the absence of data on the elements of the non-transparent race. It also addresses the economic policy problem following from this race with a scenario where a large share of global FDI ends up in China, putting the cohesion of the European Union (EU) at stake and triggering a regional race within China.     

Global Production Sharing and Sino-US Trade Relations

This paper examines Sino-US trade relations, focusing on the ongoing process of global production sharing, involving splitting of the production process into discrete activities that are then allocated across countries, and the resulting trade complementarities between the two countries in world manufacturing trade. The results suggest that the Sino--US trade imbalance is basically a structural phenomenon resulting from the pivotal role played by China as the final assembly centre in East Asia-centered global production networks.     

金融发展不平衡与全球贸易失衡——基于跨时贸易模型的研究

本文从全球金融发展不平衡的视角研究全球贸易失衡,建立一个流动性约束的跨时贸易模型,证明了金融发展差异、消费者跨期消费能力与贸易余额之间的关系。通过选取86个国家1990～2009年的面板数据实证研究发现,金融市场规模、金融市场活力等金融发展指标与贸易余额有着显著的负相关关系。全球贸易失衡问题的解决必须从根本上缩小各国金融发展的差异,发展新兴市场国家的本土金融市场,改变美国在全球金融体系中的主导和支配地位,构建多元化的国际金融体系。