Evaluating the impact of reforming the food subsidy program in Egypt: A Mixed Demand approach

Food subsidy is one of the policies considered to protect consumer welfare against food price increases, in particular when the insufficient local production has to be complemented by food imports with volatile prices. Egypt has experienced several “food crises” (the latest in 2008), which put an halt to attempts to reform in depth the system of food subsidies because of social unrest. In this paper, we use a Mixed Demand approach to analyze the consumption structure of Egyptian households. Our model specification takes into consideration the characteristics of the Egyptian food subsidy system, where some food items have predetermined quotas while others are associated with predetermined (subsidized) prices. Price, income and quota elasticities are estimated from the Egyptian family expenditure survey, and welfare change measures are derived by income class. Simulations of various options to eliminate subsidies on selected food items are conducted. We estimate the negative welfare impact of the reforms, especially in the context of increasing food prices, by comparing welfare effects of policy options by income quartiles and by household category (rural, urban).     

The dilemma of cheap food and self-sufficiency: The case of wheat in Iran

Self-sufficiency in wheat has been one of the major goals of Iranian agricultural policies since the Revolution of 1979. Even so, the country failed to achieve this goal by the early 2000s, despite a satisfactory growth in wheat production. This paper addresses this failure and the political difficulties in introducing reforms that would reduce the need for import. First, the production and consumption of wheat are examined. The conclusion is that the cheap-bread policy has mainly been responsible for the imbalances between domestic supply and demand, and the continued reliance on wheat imports. Moreover, the paper argues that the subsidy program is an expensive safety net for the needy and shows that the Iranian government has intended to reform the program since the early 1990s. However, subsidy reforms are politically sensitive, especially in developing countries where subsidies are considered very important, both for supporting the poor and for political stability. An analysis of the Iranian attempts at subsidy reform suggests that they have not yet succeeded, mainly due to such political considerations.     

Weighing what’s practical: proxy means tests for targeting food subsidies in Egypt

Despite achieving a significant cost reduction over the past two decades, the absolute cost of food subsidies in Egypt is still high relative to the benefits received by the poor. There is scope for better targeting these food subsidies, in particular for targeting cooking oil and sugar ration cards, both because reforms in this area are perceived to be far less politically sensitive than adjusting subsidy policy for bread and wheat flour and because higher income groups presently receive a significant percentage of the benefits. Targeting the high-subsidy green ration cards to the poor and the low-subsidy red ration cards to the nonpoor will require identification of both poor and nonpoor households. An International Food Policy Research Institute research team in Egypt, in collaboration with the Egyptian Ministry of Trade and Supply, developed a proxy means test for targeting ration cards. The paper describes the process of moving from the optimal income-predicting model to the final model that was both administratively and politically feasible. An ex-ante evaluation of the levels of accuracy of the proxy means testing model indicates that the model performs quite well in predicting the needy and nonneedy households. An effective and full implementation of this targeting method would increase the equity in the ration card food subsidy system, and, at the same time, the total budgetary costs of rationed food subsidies would decline. Moreover, the experience gained under this reform would facilitate targeting future social interventions to reduce and prevent poverty in Egypt.     

Food subsidies in Egypt: reform options,distribution and welfare

Egypt's food subsidies (in 1996/97 5.5 percent of government expenditures) cover rationed cooking oil and sugar (23 percent of subsidy cost) and unrationed bread and flour (77 percent). The subsidies enhance food security but are nontargeted and have substantial leakages. This paper uses a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the short-run effects of alternative food-subsidy scenarios. Government savings from reduced spending finance uniform cuts in direct tax rates across all household types. The model uses a 1996/97 database with detailed household information. The targeting of cooking oil and sugar subsidies to “the needy” (the bottom two quintiles in rural and urban areas) has a progressive effect while elimination of this subsidy is regressive. Disaggregated household consumption changes are small (±0.3 percent). The targeting of all food subsidies is pro-needy, partly due to important indirect effects. The consumption of the needy increases by 0.5 percent with little change for the nonneedy. Food subsidy elimination is regressive: the needy suffer a consumption loss of 1.1 percent. If the government savings instead are transferred to the needy, the impact is reversed: consumption increases by 4.2 percent for needy households while the nonneedy register a small loss. The overall policy implication is that food subsidy reform can benefit the needy with at worst only a modest negative impact on the nonneedy. If the subsidy is entirely eliminated, targeted government programs would be necessary to protect the needy from the negative impact.     

Food prices and the efficiency of public intervention: the case of the public distribution system in India

As public intervention is a pervasive influence on food prices, this paper asks whether and how the inefficiency of state institutions matters to food prices. In the context of the wheat subsidy scheme in India, the paper models the implications of quality differences between public and private grain supply. As both are procured at similar prices, the lower quality of public grain marks the inefficiency of government operations. The paper proposes and empirically validates a method to test for demand switches that occur as a result of quality preference. As a result, a reduction in food subsidies increases food prices and hurts the poor even when they are not major recipients of the subsidy. This seeming paradox is contingent on the inefficiency of public interventions. Thus, the outcome will be different if the reduction in food subsidy were to be accompanied by reforms in the associated state agencies.     

Combined price support and fertilizer subsidy policies for food self-sufficiency: A case study of rice in Bangladesh

Output price support and input subsidies, particularly fertilizer subsidies, are used in many developing countries as short-term policies for stimulating food production. This paper presents a method of evaluating combined price support and fertilizer subsidy policies, allowing for differences in emphasis on each. Bangladesh is taken as a case study. The paper also indicates the likely distributional consequences of the various combined policies and formulates policy suggestions based on the results. The guiding hypothesis for the study is that some combination of price support and fertilizer subsidies is preferable to a price support or fertilizer subsidy monopolicy in achieving rice self sufficiency in Bangladesh.     

Why organic food in Germany is a merit good

The conventional view of welfare economics is that subsidies for organic food are inefficient. This paper challenges this view and argues that subsidies for organic food may be justified by the concept of individualistic merit goods. Therefore, the concept of individualistic merit goods is briefly reviewed. Market preferences and reflective preferences for organic food in Germany are described. It is then shown how they relate to political preferences. Finally, it is argued how economic theory in general and food policy in particular should take account of the existence of merit goods.     

A Future for Public Housing

Two primary reforms are needed for the future success of the current public housing program: revision of the funding system for operating subsidy and development of a strategy for capital improvements and future use of the inventory. The current funding system has been criticized because of the dramatic growth in operating costs in the last decade and because of apparent over-funding of some public housing authorities (PHAs) and a distributional bias against housing authorities operating in distressed environments. Either a cost-based operating subsidy system or a market-rent based system would have strengths as well as weaknesses. Either type of system can provide adequate, fair, constrained, and predictable subsidies. The current level of deterioration of the public housing stock, the concentration of social and physical problems in 7-to-15% of the inventory, and the perverse incentives of the present modernization program, suggest a need for reform of the capital improvement funding system. Each PHA should be provided fixed levels of funds, based on its needs, both for rehabilitating and maintaining projects. Further, a project-by-project assessment should be made to identify those which cannot be cost-effectively managed or rehabilitated.
The President's Commission on Housing contributed importantly to public discussion of these policy areas, by recommending a dramatic reassessment of each project and its future use in the context of a change to a market-based subsidy system.     

Universal service subsidies and cost overstatement: Evidence from the U.S. telecommunications sector

Utility subsidies are often defended as promoting universal service. However, specific support formulas may be poorly targeted and/or designed. The U.S. high-cost loop support (HCLS) program (formerly referred to as the Universal Service Fund (USF)), has been a key component of the FCC's USF program. With proposed initiatives for universal access to broadband, it is useful to critically evaluate how the HCLS creates a moral hazard problem. This study finds that companies receiving HCLS subsidies have an incentive to report high costs to the FCC in order to qualify for still higher support payments. Using data from 1136 rural telecom firms in 50 states (1992-2002), this study shows that some companies respond to current incentives by overstating costs (or incurring higher costs) as they approach the subsidy cutoff points. Compared to the no-subsidy group, companies at the point of greatest subsidy jump appear to overstate costs more due to larger marginal benefits. Such perverse incentives need to be recognized in future universal service initiatives.     

政府补贴对再制造闭环供应链的影响研究

本文在考虑消费者支付意愿存在显著差异、消费者和制造商存在不同政府补贴分配比例下,建立再制造博弈模型,探讨政府补贴再制造品对产品价格、需求以及对消费者、制造商、社会总收益的影响。结论表明,政府补贴有利于促进再制造品的需求,消费者剩余效用、制造商收益以及社会总收益都增加;政府补贴时应不允许制造商涨价,在考虑制造商积极性下尽量补贴给消费者;提高消费者环保意识才是促进再制造的根本途径。     

The effectiveness of temporary marginal cost subsidies

The principal aim of a marginal cost subsidy program is to accelerate improvements in economic performance that would occur anyway if anticipated changes in the relevant economic determinants were to realise. The potential effectiveness of such a program is studied in a framework that allows firms to have stochastic beliefs as to the timing of the change in the economic environment and the ending of the subsidy program. Because the subsidies are typically of a temporary nature and apply only to incremental changes, they create an incentive for firms to actually postpone changes in performance. Leaving the ending date unspecified at the time of implementation of the program may counteract this incentive and results in an early accelerative response. The improvement in economic performance near the specified termination date for a program with a known length, however, may well be more substantial.     

Assessing the effect of food retail subsidies on the price of food in remote Indigenous communities in Canada

The Canadian government currently subsidizes food retailers in the 25 remote communities in Nunavut through the Nutrition North Canada program. The program expects each dollar of the food subsidy to be fully passed on to the consumer in the form of lower prices. Unfortunately, existing audits and reviews of the program have failed to determine the pass-through rate of the subsidy. Using regression analysis on food price data in each of the 25 communities, subsidy rates, and covariates that control for community characteristics, we overcome the limitations of past research and provide the first-ever estimate of the pass-through rate of Nutrition North in Nunavut. Our results suggest that most, if not all, of the subsidy is passed on to the consumer in lower food prices.     

Egypt: Food security and food aid

This article examines the multifaceted notions of food security and food aid through a case-study of a rather exceptional country in political terms - Egypt. Egypt has achieved a high degree of food security with lessened reliance on domestic production and has become one of the largest recipients of cereal food aid. The analysis considers significant questions about the interdependence of food security and food aid, the maintainability of an externally dependent food system, its implicit resource costs and its internal distribution and equity impact.     

从经济学视角分析绿色采购中政府补贴的作用

随着全球生态环境的恶化,发达国家提出了绿色采购。由于绿色产品成本高于传统产品,生产技术也有待提高,所以,可以通过政府给予生产企业补贴的形式使购买者以更低的价格采购更多的绿色产品。政府补贴有价格补贴和财政补贴两种形式,通过博弈分析,认为财政补贴中固定补贴的缺点较大．而随企业生产规模变化的补贴对企业绿色生产有较强的激励作用。国家应当通过适当的补贴形式,促进绿色采购的开展。     

农业补贴政策的有效性研究及其政策改革分析——基于顺序logistic模型的分析

本文通过对全国的农村地区做随机性的抽样调查,将所获得的样本数据作顺序logistic计童分析以验证农业补贴政策的有效性,得出如下的结论:虽然农业补贴提高了农户的生活水平,但农业物资价格的上涨和部门间的比较利益的存在,在一定程度上抑制了农业补贴的产出水平.最后就所得到的结论对农业补贴的补贴范围、补贴方式和补贴额度提出了相关的政策改革建议.     

新型农村养老保险中的制度设计及其对农民参保影响——基于江苏的实证研究

以江苏为例,分析当前新型农村养老保险中的制度设计及其对农民参保的影响。结果表明：新农保中的制度设计对农民参加养老保险影响显著。最低缴费年数15年限制能促进中年农民尽早参保;高龄补贴对青年农民参保具有激励作用;保费补缴截止日期的设置能有效促进老年人参保;保费的财政补贴比例越高,农民参保积极性越高。除制度因素外,农民的年龄、非农就业和支付能力对其选择养老保险也存在影响。年龄从幼到长,农民的参保率呈倒＂U＂形变化;非农化水平越高,农民参保积极性越低;支付能力越强农民越倾向于参加新农保。     

Estimating the impact of low-income universal service programs

This policy study uses U.S. Census microdata to evaluate how subsidies for universal telephone service vary in their impact across low-income racial groups, gender, age, and home ownership. Our demand specification includes both the subsidized monthly price (Lifeline program) and the subsidized initial connection price (Linkup program) for local telephone service. Our quasi-maximum likelihood estimation controls for location differences and instruments for price endogeneity. The microdata allow us to estimate the effects of demographics on both elasticities of telephone penetration and the level of telephone penetration. Based on our preferred estimates, the subsidy programs increased aggregate penetration by 6.1% for households below the poverty line. Our results suggest that automatic enrollment programs are important and that Linkup is more cost-effective than Lifeline, which calls into question a recent FCC (2012) decision to reduce Linkup subsidies in favor of Lifeline. Our study can inform the evaluation of similar universal service policies for Internet access.     

规模经济对逆向物流中政府行为的影响研究——基于三阶段博弈的策略分析

逆向物流中企业规模经济效益可以有效促进政府补贴行为。文章建立了基于企业规模效应的三阶段博弈模型,确定了企业最优回收数量和存在规模经济效益时的政府最优补贴率,分别讨论了政府补贴率与企业投资水平及规模经济效益的关系。结论显示:政府补贴可以降低企业投资门槛,从而提高企业投资新设备的积极性;企业规模经济效应会显著提高政府补贴产生的环境保护效益,促进社会总效益达到最优化。     

Evaluating the efficiency and productivity change within government subsidy recipients of a national technology innovation research and development program

This study analyzes the efficiency and productivity change within government subsidy recipients of a national technology innovation research and development (R&D) program. We examine 6,990 government‐sponsored, completed R&D projects during the last three performance follow‐up survey years from 2010 to 2012, and present a design of the sample of panel data to cope with the typical R&D performance time lag using a set of massive observations associated with completed R&D projects for the past 7 years from 2005 to 2011. In particular, data envelopment analysis is adopted to measure the efficiency and productivity change, which is measured in the Malmquist index. Parametric and nonparametric statistical tests are carried out to check for statistically significant differences among the characteristics regarding the types of government subsidy recipients. This study's major findings are as follows. First, during the entire period analyzed (2010–2012), there was a similar yearly pattern of statistically significant differences in the government subsidy means among the recipient types. In contrast, there were no obviously equivalent differences in the efficiency and productivity change. Second, the productivity had increased year on year, but the increments were reduced from year to year. Third, the productivity change was induced mainly by the Frontier‐shift, which indicates overall technology innovation progress, compared with the Catch‐up, which only indicates a simple increase in the efficiency. In particular, in this empirical analysis, the recipient types of ‘national laboratory’ and ‘large company’ had relatively larger sizes of government subsidies per project. However, the efficiency and productivity change of these types was not better than the others. This implies, therefore, that the government should control the ratio of the subsidy to the total R&D budget with an appropriate upper limit.

• I empirically evaluate the productivity change within a national technology innovation R&D program.
• I design a sample of panel data to cope with the typical R&D performance time lag using massive observations.
• There is no obvious relationship between the government subsidy size and R&D productivity change.
• Some particular types of government subsidy recipient are inferior in terms of R&D productivity change.
• It practically implies that the government should control the ratio of the subsidy to the total R&D budget.

     

An alternative procedure for granting farm input subsidies in Africa

One major problem in the administration of farm input subsidies in Africa is the method by which subsidies are granted to farmers: they are effected in such a way that all farmers, irrespective of their economic and financial capability, benefit equally. However, it is argued that because subsidies allocations are usually limited government ought to concentrate only on farmers who are actually in need. Consequently, a graduated type of rebate as against an all embracing subsidy is suggested as a more realistic approach of granting farm input subsidies to farmers in Africa.