Tariff valuation,transport cost and the establishment of trade preferences among developing countries

While there are various reasons for believing that the establishment of trade preferences among developing countries would convey important benefits, previous efforts along these lines have produced few concrete accomplishments. The preference-creating system proposed in this paper is based on the proposition that developing countries are often at a transport cost disadvantage in intra-trade and the following observations: (1) almost all developing countries employ a cost-insurance-freight (c.i.f.) valuation base for tariff assessment, and (2) tariffs in the developing countries are generally much higher than in developed countries and may range from 20 to 200% or more. From this, it is demonstrated that a situation exists in which the normal c.i.f. tariff base often has a potentially important discriminatory effect on intra-trade. Specifically, if customs duties are applied to an unfavourable transport margin, the tariff system will result in a higher duty collected on intra-trade than on shipments from a developed country. However, by shifting to a two-tier valuation base, the present system's discriminatory effects can be neutralized and preferences generated for developing countries. Simulations with international trade data support the proposition that the two-tier system has these desired effects.     

Are Nigerian scientists and engineers effectively utilized? issues on the deployment of scientific and technological labor for national development

It is conventional for many developing countries to conceptualize the utilization of scientific and technological manpower in quantitative terms. A quantitativedefinition of manpower utilization ignores the effectiveness of application of workers' mental and physical abilities. This paper, therefore, presents a qualitative approach to understanding the possibility of Nigeria's scientific and technological manpower to contribute to national development through the effective deployment of their skills and capabilities.Using the conventional job satisfaction/work motivation variables of intrinsic and extrinsic rewards, perceived utilization of skills and capabilities was examined on two premises: (1) the intrinsic and extrinsic rewards experienced by Nigerian scientists and engineers are low relative to their original expectations; (2) perceived utilization of skills and capabilities will be greater under increased intrinsic than under increased extrinsic rewards of work. These propositions were tested with interview, observational and survey data collected from 266 Nigerian scientists and engineers selected from seven sectors in five Nigerian states.findings: The two hypotheses were confirmed. It was also found that different sectors have particular traits and processes which make for under-utilization of scientific and technological labor.     

American agricultural assistance and the new international economic order

Combining ethical, political and economic elements, this paper studies the relationship between American food aid and agricultural assistance and the evolution of demands made by developing countries for a new international economic order. The ethical viewpoint is based on John Rawls' theory of ‘distributive justice’ and argues that the ‘Right to Food Resolution’ does not meet the developing countries' calls for redistribution. After analysing the political and economic differences in outlook of the developed and developing countries, it is concluded that the conduct of American agricultural assistance policies towards the developing countries has failed to appreciate the needs expressed in their demands for a new order.     

Has political risk scared mineral investment away from the deposits in developing countries?

In reply to recent assertions of a sharp diversion of metal mineral exploration and mining investment from developing to industrialized countries, the author argues that these worries are misdirected because they concentrate entirely on foreign direct investment and fail to consider the changes in other forms of mineral investments in developing countries. This paper shows that despite the political and economic changes which have diminished the willingness of multinational mining firms to undertake new traditional direct investment commitments in the Thrid World, the share of developing countries in Western World metal mineral activity is rising.     

Some aspects of the impact of inflation on the debt burden of developing countries

The effect of inflation on the external indebtedness of developing countries is examined in this UNCTAD paper in a more comprehensive framework than is usually the case. The conventional view on this has been that international inflation reduces the ‘real’ burden of external debt. However, viewed in the context of the net effect of inflation on the import capacity of debtor developing countries, the paper shows that the situation is by no means so simple. It demonstrates by examining the cases of a sample of 71 developing countries that the effect of price increases of developing countries' imports (relative to price increases for their exports) caused by international inflation can and often has more than offset the so-called favourable effect on the burden of debt. For example in 1975, a year with particularly high inflation, no less than 75% in the sample experienced negative consequences. In these cases, therefore, international inflation on balance has reduced import capacity and thus made it more not less difficult for them to maintain servicing on their external debt and so increased the ‘real’ burden of their debt. Thus the UNCTAD paper brings into serious question the conventional wisdom on this important issue.     

Implications of the effective revaluation of reserve asset gold: The case for a gold account for development

International agreement was reached in the early 1970s that the future creation of international reserves would be largely via SDR allocations, to be distributed to individual countries in proportion to their quotas in the IMF. In this manner, the international monetary system would play a ‘neutral’ role in the creation and distribution of international reserves. It has become increasingly apparent in recent years, however, that the international monetary system has been far from neutral in its distribution of international liquidity. The de facto revaluation of reserve asset gold has led to a massive creation of international reserves — nearly $500 billion by the end of 1979 — which has served to benefit almost exclusively the major gold-holding countries, all among the wealthiest of the industrialized nations.Unlike the major gold-holding countries, which throughout the Bretton Woods era converted two-thirds of their foreign exchange holdings into gold, the large majority of developing countries acted on the basis of the United States pledge that the dollar was ‘as good as gold’. As a result, the quantitative analysis presented in this paper shows that developing countries have foregone reserve holdings in excess of $100 billion. To partially redress the inequitable distribution of international reserves which has arisen from the de facto revaluation of reserve asset gold — and at the same time to promote a significant transfer of resources to developing countries — this paper proposes the establishment of a ‘Gold Account for Development’ based on official gold holdings, outlines the various forms which such an account might take, and discusses the political acceptability of the proposals.     

Exchange Rate Regimes of Developing Countries: Global Context and Individual Choices

This paper argues that, in analyzing the choice of exchange rate regimes in developing and transition countries in the present global economic context, it is essential to distinguish between those countries with substantial involvement in international financial markets and those where involvement is limited. For developing countries with important linkages to modern global capital markets, an important lesson of the recent crises in emerging market countries is that the requirements for sustaining pegged exchange rate regimes have become significantly more demanding. For many emerging market countries, therefore, regimes that allow substantial actual exchange rate flexibility are probably desirable. If supported by the requisite policy discipline and institutional structures, however, hard currency pegs may also be appropriate for some of these countries. Beyond the emerging markets countries, for many developing countries with less linkage to global capital markets, traditionalexchange rate pegs and intermediate regimes are more viable and retain important advantages. J. Japan. Int. Econ., March 2001, 15(1), pp. 68–101. Research Department, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC, 20431. Copyright 2001 Academic Press.Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: F31, F33, F41.     

Science and technology indicators,country size and economic development: An international comparison

Conceptual and data problems make the selection of science and technology indicators difficult. It has also proven hard to link measures of scientific and technological activity with economic development. In this paper, statistically significant results are obtained in regressing two “input” indicators: stock of scientists and engineers, and expenditures in research and experimental development, with population size and income per capita. The models adjusted include non-linearities and are structurally different country groupings. Thus the practice of utilizing average coefficients, and of applying their values to both industrialized and developing countries, does not seem justified. The econometrically established pattern tends to corroborate prior knowledge about highly qualified human resource availability and expenditures in R & D, in “outlier” countries performing both above and below the “norm”.     

The new international economic order: The beneficiaries

The two substantive elements of the programme of action for a ‘new international economic order’ (NIEO) that have been most stressed by developing countries are those dealing with primary commodity prices and relief from debt service burdens. The provision of adequate amounts of official development assistance (ODA) has received less stress. An examination of 75 oil-importing developing countries for which adequate data were available grouped by per capita product, shows that if the priorities of the NIEO are carried out the principal beneficiaries would be the wealthier developing countries. For the very poorest countries, those for which the existing order has provided little in the way of material benefits, the most critical external element in helping them meet their development aspirations would be more ODA.     

Facilitating Development: The Role of Business Groups

A defining characteristic of developing countries is the inadequacy of basic services normally required to support organized economic activity. One way in which the private sector acts to facilitate development is through investments orchestrated by agglomerations of firms called business groups. Such groups dominate the landscape of virtually all developing countries. Our study of plant location decisions in India shows that group-affiliates are more likely to (profitably) locate in less-developed states than unaffiliated firms; the magnitude of this “group effect” is large and significant. Furthermore, this result is stronger for more recent location decisions that are less likely to have been driven by political economy considerations. We suggest that this is because the scale and scope of groups, and the de facto property rights enforcement within groups in environments where legal enforcement is lacking, permit them to overcome some of the difficulties that impair production in underdeveloped regions.     

外向型FDI能促进母国的对外贸易吗?——基于69个国家和地区样本的GMM检验

对外直接投资对母国经济的诸多方面有正面的影响。文章选取41个发展中国家和地区以及28个发达国家和地区2002-2011年的观测样本,实证考察外向型FDI对母国对外贸易的影响。实证结果发现,不管是在发达国家样本还是在发展中国家样本,在控制了外向型FDI的内生性之后,外向国际直接投资存量对母国的进出口贸易总额没有显著影响。     

Brain drain in the age of mass migration: Does relative inequality explain migrant selectivity?

Brain drain is a core economic policy problem for many developing countries today. Does relative inequality in source and destination countries influence the brain-drain phenomenon? We explore human capital selectivity during the period 1820–1909.We apply age heaping techniques to measure human capital selectivity of international migrants. In a sample of 52 source and five destination countries we find selective migration determined by relative anthropometric inequality in source and destination countries. Other inequality measures confirm this. The results remain robust in OLS and Arellano–Bond approaches. We confirm the Roy–Borjas model of migrant self-selection. Moreover, we find that countries like Germany and UK experienced a small positive effect, because the less educated emigrated in larger numbers.     

Income distribution,basic needs and trade-offs with growth: The case of semi-industrialized Latin American countries

This paper addresses income distribution issues and policy options to eliminate extreme poverty in a particular typology of middle-income semi-industrialized developing countries of Latin America. The countries included in the typology are characterized by a relatively high per capita income (above US$700/yr in 1977), a relatively high degree of industrialization (industry representing over 30% of GNP), a rather large size both in population and area, and relatively well endowed resources in agriculture. A distinctive feature is a strong inequality in the distribution of income and wealth relative to other countries of similar levels of per capita income. The countries included are Brazil, Columbia, Ecuador, Mexico and Peru, representing two-thirds of the population of that region.     

Development assistance: Trade versus aid and the relative performance of industrial countries

Given that both theory and empirical analyses show that foreign trade and aid have similar effects on the development process, this study develops a methodology for assessing the joint (aid plus trade) contribution of industrial countries. The results show that countries like Sweden, Norway and Denmark, which are generally regarded as having liberal aid policies, perform below average when the combined effects of aid and trade are considered while the United Kingdom, Netherland and Belgium emerge as making maximum contributions to development. In addition, the trade practices of the United States and the Federal Republic of Germany largely offset these countries relatively poor aid record. The trade and aid contribution of the USSR and other socialist countries of Europe are also shown to fall far below that of the poorest performing DAC members. If the socialist countries matched average DAC performance measures their imports from developing countries would increase by $7 billion and their aid flows would be $3.1 billion higher. Finally, this study calls into question the rationale for uniform aid targets which do not account for the donor's differential trade contribution to the development effort.     

Do Real Exchange Rates Follow a Nonlinear Mean Reverting Process in Developing Countries?

In an effort to fight relatively high inflation, many developing countries try to manage their nominal exchange rates through official intervention. In addition, developing countries tend to have high transportation costs, tariffs, and nontariff barriers. These factors are among the sources of generating nonlinearity in real exchange rates and hence some nonlinear adjustment toward purchasing power parity (PPP) in developing countries. In this paper, we employ monthly real effective exchange rate (REER) data of 88 developing countries and test the null of nonstationarity versus an alternative of linear stationarity by the means of a conventional unit root test and compare the results with those obtained from a new test in which the null is the same but the alternative hypothesis is nonlinear stationarity. The latter test supports the PPP theory in more developing countries compared with the former test, suggesting that nonlinear adjustment toward PPP in developing countries is an important phenomenon. Reported country characterizations indicate that reversion in REER occurs more often for high-inflation countries and for countries with high flexibility in their exchange rates.     

The Effect of Inflation Targeting on Foreign Direct Investment Flows to Developing Countries

Due to the many benefits that come with foreign direct investment (FDI), such as greater economic growth and technology spillovers, developing countries strive to attract this type of investment. Although the amount of FDI in developing countries has increased greatly over the past several years, not all developing countries have been successful at attracting it. A credible monetary policy, such as inflation targeting (IT), might make countries that implement it more attractive destinations for FDI flows due to the reliable macroeconomic environment created. This paper estimates the effect of IT on FDI flows to developing countries using a difference-in-differences approach and panel data for 71 countries for the period 1985 to 2013. This paper also looks at the difference between targeting and non-targeting countries in terms of FDI inflows during times of high instability. The results indicate that the adoption of IT leads to increased FDI flows to developing countries overall and, most importantly, during times of distress.

     

Public debt and economic growth – economic systems matter

Most studies on the relationship between public debt and economic growth implicitly assume homogeneous debt effects across their samples. We –in accordance with recent literature– challenge this view and state that there likely is a great deal of cross-country heterogeneity in that relationship. However, other than scholars assuming that all countries are different, we expect that clusters of countries differ. We identify three country clusters with distinct economic systems: Liberal (Anglo Saxon), Continental (Core EU members) and Nordic (Scandinavian). We argue that different degrees of fiscal uncertainty at comparable levels of public debt between those economic systems constitute a major source of heterogeneity in the debt-growth relationship. Our empirical evidence supports this assumption. Continental countries face more growth reducing public debt effects than especially Liberal countries. There, public debt apparently exerts neutral or even positive growth effects, while for Nordic countries a non-linear relationship is discovered, with negative debt effects kicking in at public debt values of around 60% of GDP.     

Have you gotten to know the Index to International Statistics (IIS)?

The Index to International Statistics (IIS) is a new reference sourcebook that should become standard equipment in the tool kit for all development economists and students of development economics. The IIS provides for the first time a comprehensive and up-to-date index of statistical information published by major intergovernmental organizations, along with microfiche access to source documents. The purpose of this article is to explain the features of the IIS and to discuss its position in the panoply of statistical reference materials concerning data on developing countries.     

Assessment of the effects of infrastructure investment under the belt and road initiative

Based on the estimated effect of infrastructure investment on total factor productivity (TFP) enhancing and trade costs reducing, this paper uses the data from Asian Development Bank to numerically assess the effects of Asian nations' infrastructure investment under the Belt and Road Initiative within the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, and the results show that most countries or regions' economic growth, welfare, foreign trade, and trade terms are promoted in varying degrees. However, some countries (regions) have suffered. Additionally, the existing division of labor and trade patterns between developed economies and developing countries somehow consolidated because of changes in trade. In addition, China's industrial transformation and upgrading will benefit from the infrastructure investment under the Belt and Road Initiative, namely, the traditional industries slowdown or decline and high-tech manufacturing and service industries speed up, along with the optimization of factor allocation among industries.     

Trade effects of European Community preferences to Mediterranean countries: The case of textile and clothing imports

The European Community (EC)'s preferential trade agreements with Mediterranean countries have been subject to little ex post assessment. This paper analyses the preferences' impact on EC textile and clothing imports from Mediterranean countries. The preferred imports grew faster than world trade or OECD imports from developing countries, and as a proportion of EC imports and Mediterranean exports; EC preferences thus appear to have had a significant effect on Mediterranean countries' textile and clothing exports, although some recipients have taken greater advantage than others. Post-1977 EC protectionism in these products further benefited the preference-recipients, who were largely unimpeded by quatitative restrictions.