Do financial indicators have directional predictability for US home sales?

This study investigates the directional predictability of financial indicators for home sales across tranquil (1984–2005) and volatile (1972–1983 and 2006–2013) periods. We find that the mortgage rate has directional predictability for both existing and newly built home sales for up to 2005. The federal funds rate generally has directional predictability for existing (newly built) home sales in 1984–2005 (1972–1983). The term spread has directional predictability for home sales in 1972–1983 but generally not in the tranquil period of 1984–2005. Further, unlike mortgage and federal funds rates, the term spread has directional predictability for home sales in 2006–2013 and thus can help the Fed with useful information (assuming that this trend continues).     

当信仰遭遇危机……——陈映真20世纪80年代的思想涌流析论（二）

本文的核心关切不是20世纪80年代陈映真正面展开的诸具体知识、思想、文学、文化论述实践，而是隐含在这些后面的——被六七十年代陈映真热烈理想化的中国大陆毛泽东时代社会主义实践，特别是“文化大革命”的规划与实践，因“文革”后中国大陆自身对其中问题的检讨与不义、残酷的揭露，而引发的对陈映真的冲击和他因之产生的思考、观念的调整与摸索。致力于这样一种角度，是因为从这一角度所能引出的整理与揭示，不仅有助于我们对80年代陈映真诸具体知识、思想、文学、文化实践内蕴有更精准的理解，更重要的是，只有如此，我们才能准确地揭示80年代陈映真诸具体知识、思想、文学、文化实践背后更内在的观念型构与感受型构，而这揭示本身便有着重要的思想认知价值。     

当信仰遭遇危机……——陈映真20世纪80年代的思想涌流析论（一）

本文的核心关切不是20世纪80年代陈映真正面展开的诸具体知识、思想、文学、文化论述实践,而是隐含在这些后面的——被六七十年代陈映真热烈理想化的中国大陆毛泽东时代社会主义实践,特别是“文化大革命”的规划与实践,因“文革”后中国大陆自身对其中问题的检讨与不义、残酷的揭露,而引发的对陈映真的冲击和他因之产生的思考、观念的调整与摸索。致力于这样一种角度,是因为从这一角度所能引出的整理与揭示,不仅有助于我们对80年代陈映真诸具体知识、思想、文学、文化实践内蕴有更精准的理解,更重要的是,只有如此,我们才能准确地揭示80年代陈映真诸具体知识、思想、文学、文化实践背后更内在的观念型构与感受型构,而这揭示本身便有着重要的思想认知价值。     

Out-of-equilibrium performance of three Lindahl mechanisms: Experimental evidence

We describe an experimental comparison of the out-of-equilibrium performance of three allocation mechanisms designed to achieve Lindahl outcomes as Nash equilibria: the mechanisms due to Walker (1981), Kim (1993), and Chen (2002). We find that Chen?s mechanism, which is supermodular, converges closest and most rapidly to its equilibrium. However, we find that the properties that move subjects toward equilibrium in Chen?s mechanism typically generate sizeable taxes and subsidies when not in equilibrium, and correspondingly large budget surpluses and deficits, which typically far outweigh the surplus created by providing the public good. The Kim mechanism, on the other hand, converges relatively close to its equilibrium and exhibits much better out-of-equilibrium efficiency properties.     

Stochastic models for capital growth

This paper relates to Wicksell's economic paradigm in presenting methods for determining the optimal cutting time of a single tree whose sizet periods into the future,X(t), is given by

THE INSTABILITY IN THE MONETARY POLICY REACTION FUNCTION AND THE ESTIMATION OF MONETARY POLICY SHOCKS

We extend Romer and Romer's (2004) analysis of the estimation and the effects of monetary policy shocks by controlling for (1) changes in the monetary policy reaction function and (2) changes in the response of output and prices over time with an extended data set. The results suggest that the post 1979 responses of output and prices to a monetary policy shock are significantly different from what has been reported for the whole sample: While output and prices respond significantly and negatively if their response is estimated for the whole sample period (1969–2005), the response of output is insignificant for the period of 1979–2005, and the response of prices is much weaker. The analysis of the changes in the monetary policy conducted over time allows us to partly attribute the diminished price and output responses to a successful monetary policy which led to a less volatile economy during the great moderation. (JEL E52, E32, C50)     

Corrigendum to “School choice: An experimental study” [J. Econ. Theory 127 (1) (2006) 202-231]

We correct an inconsistency in the efficiency comparison reported in [Y. Chen, T. Sönmez, School choice: An experimental study, J. Econ. Theory 127 (1) (2006) 202-231]. The efficiency comparison of the three school choice mechanisms in our paper is based on recombinant estimation with an identical set of 10 tie-breakers, while the statistics reported in Table 7 is computed using 14,400 tie-breakers.     

新民主主义经济理论的杰出实践者

本文以陈云同志在陕甘宁边区和东北解放区组织和领导经济工作为主线,阐述了陈云同志对中国革命胜利所做出的重大贡献。本文认为,陈云同志是新民主主义经济理论的杰出实践者,无论是在延安,还是在东北,陈云都为陕甘宁边区经济和东北解放区经济的发展做出了重大贡献。他不仅是我国国民经济发展和现代化建设的杰出领导人,也是我党组织和领导新民主主义经济工作最早的杰出领导人。     

A comment on “School choice: An experimental study” [J. Econ. Theory 127 (1) (2006) 202-231]

We show that one of the main results in Chen and Sönmez (2006, 2008) [6] and [7] does no longer hold when the number of recombinations is sufficiently increased to obtain reliable conclusions. No school choice mechanism is significantly superior in terms of efficiency.     

Regularity of pure strategy equilibrium points in a class of bargaining games

Summary. We develop an index theory for the Stationary Subgame Perfect (SSP) equilibrium set in a class of n-player sequential bargaining games with probabilistic recognition rules. For games with oligarchic voting rules (a class that includes unanimity rule), we establish conditions on individual utilities that ensure that for almost all discount factors, the number of SSP equilibria is odd and the equilibrium correspondence lower-hemicontinuous. For games with general, monotonic voting rules, we show generic (in discount factors) determinacy of SSP equilibria under the restriction that the agreement space is of dimension one. For non-oligarchic voting rules and agreement spaces of higher finite dimension, we establish generic determinacy for the subset of SSP equilibria in pure strategies. The analysis also extends to the case of fixed delay costs. Lastly, we provide a sufficient condition for uniqueness of SSP equilibrium in oligarchic games.Received: 13 May 2004, Revised: 1 March 2005, JEL Classification Numbers: C62, C72, C78.I thank John Duggan and participants of the 2003 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia, PA, the Political Economy Seminar at Northwestern University, and the Economic Theory seminar at the University of Rochester for helpful comments.     

The process and experiences with creating user-driven innovation programmes in the Netherlands1

In 2005 the Netherlands drafted a new innovation policy, consisting of a basic package for all entrepreneurs and a programme-based package aimed at supporting the Dutch industry in achieving global excellence in a limited number of (business) areas. The programme-based package is characterized by an integral approach, resulting in user-driven public–private innovation programmes. In the new approach, industrial foresight processes are integrated with actual policy implementation. In this paper, we include the lessons learned during the process that led to the first innovation programmes. Also, some unresolved issues in the new approach are discussed.     

The process and experiences with creating user-driven innovation programmes in the Netherlands

In 2005 the Netherlands drafted a new innovation policy, consisting of a basic package for all entrepreneurs and a programme-based package aimed at supporting the Dutch industry in achieving global excellence in a limited number of (business) areas. The programme-based package is characterized by an integral approach, resulting in user-driven public-private innovation programmes. In the new approach, industrial foresight processes are integrated with actual policy implementation. In this paper, we include the lessons learned during the process that led to the first innovation programmes. Also, some unresolved issues in the new approach are discussed.     

Why did policy ignore the harbingers of the crisis?

An analysis of the monetary authorities’ reports for 2005 to 2007 reveals that they were well aware of the risks of the financial crisis. They, however, tended to overemphasise the risks outside their control and to neglect those, at least partially under their control. Central banks should and could have acted already in 2005. Academic studies and their own assessments clearly indicated an accumulation of risks. Monetary authorities didn’t react as (1) they believe in self-regulating markets, and (2) in monetary instruments’ ineffectiveness to prevent bubbles, as well as (3) their tendency to assigning an extremely low probability to potential risks. This is not untypical for expert assessments: Risk assessment for complex systems is extremely complicated. If feasible at all, it would require extraordinarily complex techniques to take into account the tight coupling of system components and their complex interaction. This will not be possible in the foreseeable future. As a result reducing the system’s complexity appears to be the only way to reduce the probability and the severity of future financial crises.     

基于生态占用模型的甘肃省可持续发展定量评价

生态占用模型是可持续发展定量评价中的一种直观而有效的方法。甘肃省经济比较落后,支柱产业对自然资源的依赖性强,属于资源输出型地区。从消费的角度计算甘肃省的生态占用,难以准确反映其资源利用程度。本文利用生态占用的理论和方法,从生产的角度对甘肃省2005年的生态占用进行计算,并与其生态容量进行比较。结果表明,2005年甘肃省的人均生态占用为2．24hm2,而人均生态容量为1．15hm2,人均生态赤字高达1．11hm2,超载98．58％。这说明甘肃省对自然资源的开发利用程度已大大超过其生态承载力,其发展是不可持续的。     

FURTHER EVIDENCE ON MEAN REVERSION IN THE AUSTRALIAN EXCHANGE RATE

In this paper we re‐examine the purchasing power parity (PPP) in Australia for the period February 1970 to April 2005 using an alternative method relative to the previous studies. We underlined large shocks due to depreciations that affected the Australian exchange rate, using outlier methodology. Once we adjusted the data of these outliers that had large, but either temporary or permanent effects on the series, our results show that there is no tendency for PPP in Australia to hold in the long run during this period.     

财政赤字、通货膨胀与债务危机——陈云对赤字财政的有关思想及其现实启示

"坚决不打赤字财政",是陈云一贯而鲜明的主张,因为在他看来,财政赤字与通货膨胀密不可分。建国初期,我国人民饱受通货膨胀之苦,而"币值下跌、物价上涨的主要原因,是政府的财政赤字庞大"。因此,陈云力主财政安排留有余地,尽量避免出现赤字,尤其忌讳将赤字用于投资。在这一思想的主导下,计划经济时期我国财政预算保持平衡,物价基本稳定。新时期以来,我国经济体制和市场环境发生重大变化,财政赤字渐成常态,相应地物价亦呈不断上涨趋势。尽管近年来连年出现的财政赤字主要依靠发行公共债务来弥补,但这终究不是长久之计,当下的欧债危机警醒了我们,陈云提出的"建设规模的大小必须和国家财力物力相适应"是一条不变的真理。     

The impact of piped water provision on infant mortality in Brazil: A quantile panel data approach

We examine the impact of piped water on the under-1 infant mortality rate (IMR) in Brazil using a recently developed econometric procedure for the estimation of quantile treatment effects with panel data. The provision of piped water in Brazil is highly correlated with other observable and unobservable determinants of IMR — the latter leading to an important source of bias. Instruments for piped water provision are not readily available, and fixed effects to control for time-invariant correlated unobservables are invalid in the simple quantile regression framework. Using the quantile panel data procedure in Chen and Khan [Chen, S., Khan, S., Semiparametric estimation of non-stationary censored panel model data models with time-varying factor. Econometric Theory 2007; forthcoming], our estimates indicate that the provision of piped water reduces infant mortality by significantly more at the higher conditional quantiles of the IMR distribution than at the lower conditional quantiles (except for cases of extreme underdevelopment). These results imply that targeting piped water intervention toward areas in the upper quantiles of the conditional IMR distribution, when accompanied by other basic public health inputs, can achieve significantly greater reductions in infant mortality.     

陈云社会主义经济建设思想及其当代价值研究

陈云的社会主义经济建设思想是一个完整的体系,内容十分丰富,主要包括:立足中国实际,建设有利于人民的社会主义经济;搞好综合平衡,促使国民经济按比例发展;重视市场调节,保证计划和市场相结合;坚持经济建设,兼顾人口、资源、环境协调发展。在新时期新形势下,陈云社会主义经济建设思想对我国经济的发展仍然具有重要的理论价值及现实意义。     

社会主义市场经济思想发展史略

毛泽东、陈云、邓小平都为社会主义市场经济理论的创立作出了贡献。20世纪50年代末60年代初,毛泽东在探索中形成的社会主义商品经济思想对于社会主义市场经济理论的形成具有奠基作用;陈云的＂三主三补＂等思想起着承上启下、承前启后的作用;邓小平从已有思想材料出发,深入思考如何发展社会主义生产力的问题,开拓创新,最终创立社会主义市场经济理论。     

Competing Against Experienced and Inexperienced Players

In certain markets success may depend on how well participants anticipate the behavior of other participants who have varying amounts of experience. Understanding if and how peoples behavior depends on competitors level of experience is important since in most markets participants have varying amounts of experience. Examining data from two new experimental studies similar to the beauty contest game first studied by Nagel (1995), the results indicate that (1) players with no experience behave the same against competitors with and without experience but (2) players quickly learn to condition their behavior on competitors experience level, causing (3) behavior to stop moving toward the equilibrium whenever new players enter the game and (4) experienced players to earn more money than less experienced players. The paper discusses the implications of the results for understanding and modeling behavior in markets in which participants have different amounts of experience.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the acknowledgements.