Do management EPS forecasts allow returns to reflect future earnings? Implications for the continuation of management’s quarterly earnings guidance

Using 18,253 firm-year observations from 1998 through 2003, we build on literature suggesting that more informative disclosures allow returns to better reflect future earnings and test whether management earnings per share forecasts and their characteristics influence the future earnings response coefficient (FERC). We find that FERCs are greater for forecasting firms and when forecasts are more frequent or precise. We suggest that more frequent and more precise forecasts assist investors in better predicting future earnings. Importantly, we find that quarterly and short-term forecasts incrementally increase the association between returns and future earnings beyond annual and long-term forecasts; thus, even short-term, quarterly forecasts allow investors to form better expectations about future earnings. This suggests a benefit of quarterly earnings forecasts possibly overlooked in recommendations from the United States Chamber of Commerce, CFA Institute, Business Roundtable Institute for Corporate Ethics, and The Conference Board to eliminate quarterly earnings guidance.     

Measuring investors’ assessment of earnings persistence: do investors see through smoothed earnings?

Prior studies document that investors value persistent earnings more than transitory earnings. This argument offers incentives to managers to smooth their reported earnings and make them look more persistent. This study examines whether investors are misled by management’s income-smoothing behavior and whether they can correctly assess the persistence of smoothed earnings. Using a simple theoretical model, this paper shows that investors’ assessment of earnings persistence can be derived from their reactions to reported earnings, which is the ratio of the coefficient on earnings change relative to the coefficient on earnings level in the return–earnings relation. Empirical results show that investors’ assessment of earnings persistence is negatively associated with the level of income smoothing after controlling for time-series persistence of earnings and hence suggest that investors understand that the high persistence of smoothed earnings is not real and they discount the persistence of smoothed earnings when they react to such earnings news.     

Is silence golden? An empirical analysis of firms that stop giving quarterly earnings guidance

We investigate firms that stop providing earnings guidance (“stoppers”) either by publicly announcing their decision (“announcers”) or doing so quietly (“quiet stoppers”). Relative to firms that continue guiding, stoppers have poorer prior performance, more uncertain operating environments, and fewer informed investors. Announcers commit to non-disclosure because they (i) do not expect to report future good news or (ii) have lower incentives to guide due to the presence of long-term investors. The three-day return around the announcement is negative. Stoppers subsequently experience increases in analyst forecast dispersion and decreases in forecast accuracy but no change in return volatility or analyst following.     

Does short selling reduce analysts’ optimism bias in earnings forecasts?

We examine the relationship between short selling and analyst optimism bias of earnings forecasts of stocks in China. We propose two possible hypotheses: short selling enhances analysts’ information set to lower optimism bias and analysts drum up optimistic earnings forecasts to counter short selling. Our results suggest that short selling and earnings optimism bias are negatively correlated. The findings are robust to a two-stage least square method, a difference in-differences fixed effect model, an alternative measure of optimism bias, incorporated different time windows to calculate short selling, considered bull and bear market conditions, accounting for media coverage, and using abnormal short selling. By leveraging rich data, we conduct additional analyses using stocks with different forecasting horizons and earnings forecasts that were made after the accounting year but prior to the earnings announcement to further support expanding the information set argument. Lastly, we document that short selling information improves the accuracy of earnings forecasts.     

Does the midpoint of range earnings forecasts represent managers’ expectations?

The accounting literature has used the midpoint of range forecasts in various research settings, assuming that the midpoint is the best proxy for managers’ earnings expectations revealed in range forecasts. We argue that given managers’ asymmetric loss functions regarding earnings surprises, managers are unlikely to place their true earnings expectations at the midpoint of range forecasts. We predict that managers’ true expectations are close to the upper bound of range forecasts. We find evidence consistent with these predictions in 1996–2010, especially in the recent decade. Despite their role as sophisticated information intermediaries, analysts barely unravel the pessimistic bias that managers embed in range forecasts. Furthermore, we find that the upper bound rather than the midpoint better represents investors’ interpretation of managers’ expectations in recent times. Our study cautions researchers to refine their research designs that use management range forecasts and sheds light on the role of financial analysts in the earnings expectations game.     

Regulation FD and analysts’ vs. investors’ weightings of the cash components of earnings

This paper investigates whether investors’ bias in processing the information contained in the cash components of annual earnings has been reduced, and whether the difference in bias between financial analysts and investors has decreased subsequent to Regulation Fair Disclosure (hereafter, Reg FD). We compare analysts’ and investors’ weightings of the three cash flow components of earnings, defined by Dechow, Richardson, and Sloan (2008), from 1985 to 2008, using historical weightings as benchmarks. Our results show that, in the post Reg FD period, the magnitude of investors’ (analysts’) mis-weightings has decreased (increased), and the differences between analysts’ and investors’ mis-weightings have become smaller. Overall, these results suggest that financial analysts’ information advantages over investors declined after Reg FD took effect, and that investors consequently are less biased in assessing the persistence of the cash flow components of earnings following the implementation of Reg FD.     

Does auditor tenure influence the reporting of conservative earnings?

In this study, we examine the relation between auditor tenure and the reporting of conservative earnings. Using several measures of conservatism, we document a positive association between the conservatism in reported earnings and the length of the auditor–client relationship. We further document an increase in conservatism between short and medium tenure that does not deteriorate over long tenure. Collectively, the results imply lower conservatism for short auditor tenure, which suggests that mandating auditor rotation may have an adverse affect on the conservatism in reported earnings.     

Does religiosity enhance the quality of management earnings forecasts?

This study investigates whether firms located in areas with higher levels of religiosity disclose higher-quality management earnings forecasts than do other firms. Using a US sample of 4,655 firm-year observations over the period 2001 to 2014, we find that firms headquartered in counties with higher proportions of religious adherents issue earnings forecasts that are less optimistically biased and that the effect of religiosity is concentrated in firms with weak monitoring mechanisms. We also find that religiosity mitigates pessimistic bias in management earnings forecasts, but only for those issued by firms operating in low litigation industries. This result suggests that when the litigation risk is high, both ethicality and risk aversion are at work and their competing effects likely offset each other. Additionally, we document that forecasts issued by firms in more religious areas trigger stronger stock price reactions than those issued by other firms and that the effect is limited to forecasts containing optimistic bias. Overall, our results show that religiosity enhances the quality of management earnings forecasts, but the effect varies based on different conditions.     

Do analysts and investors fully understand the persistence of the items excluded from Street earnings?

Previous research has found that the items that are included in GAAP earnings but excluded from Street earnings to allow the firm to meet or beat analyst earnings forecasts (“MBF exclusions”) are more persistent than the other excluded items. In this study, I find that the difference in the levels of persistence between MBF and non-MBF exclusions declined after the introduction of Regulation G, which requires public companies that disclose non-GAAP earnings to also present GAAP earnings and a reconciliation of the two. Analysts underestimate the persistence of non-MBF exclusions, but the degree of this underestimation is lower in the post-regulation period. In contrast, there is little evidence to indicate that analysts underestimate the persistence of MBF exclusions in either time period. I also find strong (weak) evidence that investors underestimate the persistence of Street exclusions in the pre- (post-) regulation period. These results suggest that Regulation G constrains the practice of excluding recurring expenses from Street earnings to meet or beat analyst forecasts and helps analysts and investors to understand the persistence of Street exclusions.     

Do managers use earnings guidance to influence street earnings exclusions?

Despite the apparent importance of “street earnings” to investors, we know relatively little about the process through which this earnings metric is determined. The limited evidence in the extant literature provides analyst-centric explanations, suggesting that analysts’ abilities and incentives influence which line items forecast-tracking services exclude from GAAP earnings to arrive at street earnings. We propose an alternative explanation: managers actively influence analysts’ forecast exclusion decisions via earnings guidance. We test this explanation by examining how earnings guidance influences two aspects of analysts’ exclusions: (1) special item exclusions (i.e., nonrecurring items) and (2) incremental exclusions (i.e., recurring items). We find that for firms with no special items in the previous year, when managers guide, analysts exclude almost all current-year special items, whereas when managers do not guide, the proportion that analysts exclude is significantly lower. More importantly, we that analysts’ incremental exclusions are significantly higher when managers guide than when they do not guide. Overall, our evidence suggests that managers play an active role in influencing the composition of street earnings via earnings guidance.     

How do suppliers benefit from customers’ voluntary disclosure? the effect of customers’ earnings guidance on upstream firms’ investment efficiency

We explore whether and how the issuance of customers’ financial forward-looking information affects the investment efficiency of their upstream firms. Using earnings guidance as a proxy for forward-looking information, we find that firms wherein customers disclose earnings forecasts invest more efficiently than those where customers withhold forward-looking information. Our findings hold after controlling for a set of firm characteristics, employing alternative model specifications and measurements, and using the 2011 Thailand flood as a quasi-experiment. Further analyses offer support that the positive impact of customers’ earnings guidance on upstream firms’ investment efficiency is stronger for customers issuing more informative, disaggregated, and accurate forecasts and suppliers with weaker bargaining power. We also observe an asymmetric response of suppliers’ investments toward customers’ good-news versus bad-news forecasts. Furthermore, by conducting a textual-based analysis, we find that suppliers’ investment efficiency increases with more embedded supply chain relevant information in customers’ earnings guidance reports. Overall, our findings suggest that suppliers benefit from customers’ earnings guidance to better assess their investment decisions, thereby achieving greater investment efficiency.     

Why do investors discount earnings announced late?

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - Holding earnings surprises constant, investors react negatively to delayed earnings announcements. One standard deviation of delay (5 days)...     

A discussion of “Do managers use earnings guidance to influence street earnings exclusions?”

It is well known that both managers and analysts frequently define earnings by excluding various amounts from GAAP earnings. Christensen et al. (Rev Account Stud, 2011) make a prediction of causality whereby managers actively influence how analysts define earnings. They argue that the mechanism through which managers accomplish this is guidance of analysts’ earnings forecasts within a fiscal period. Using a large sample of firms actively followed by analysts, the authors examine whether the existence of earnings guidance is associated with higher levels of total exclusions in analysts’ definition of earnings. The study provides suggestive evidence that managers actively influence analysts’ definition of earnings that they forecast. However, the indirect nature of the research design calls for additional work to specifically link directed guidance of GAAP earnings exclusions to amounts actually excluded by analysts.     

Does the investment horizon of institutional investors matter for stock liquidity?

This paper examines the role of the investment horizon of institutional investors on stock liquidity of firms. We show that an increase in long-term institutional ownership is negatively associated with firm liquidity, while an increase in short-term ownership is positively related to a firm's stock liquidity. We identify the ownership-liquidity relationship by examining two major channels: the trading activity channel and the informational friction channel. Long-term investors reduce stock liquidity through low frequency trading and access to value-enhancing and private information, which induces adverse selection bias. In contrast, short-term investors improve liquidity through trading activity and competition with other investors, which lowers transaction costs. Our findings further suggest that the effects of an increase in long-term (short-term) institutional investors on liquidity weaken (strengthen) when a firm has more publicly available information. Finally, we show that the positive impact of an increase in long-term ownership on valuation is more pronounced for firms with higher liquidity and the valuation effect is persistent.     

Does the Dodd-Frank Act reduce the conflict of interests of credit rating agencies?

I compare issuer-paid ratings, represented by Standard & Poor's (S&P) to investor-paid ratings, represented by Egan-Jones Ratings Company (EJR), after the passage of the Dodd-Frank Act. My results show that S&P ratings are lower than EJR ratings in the post-Dodd-Frank period, especially for firms able to generate revenue to credit rating agencies (CRAs); i.e., firms with a large bond issuance, larger firms, and low-performing firms. Further, I find evidence of a greater accuracy of S&P ratings relative to EJR ratings in the post-Act period as shown by the lower probability of large credit rating changes and rating reversals. Finally, I show that issuer-paid ratings are more concerned about providing timely ratings in the post-Dodd-Frank period, thus protecting their reputation as leading information providers, than investor-paid ratings. My results are robust to a wide battery of robustness tests.     

Automatic summarization of earnings releases: attributes and effects on investors’ judgments

Review of Accounting Studies - Firms often include summaries with earnings releases. However, manager-generated summaries may be prone to strategic tone and content management, compared to the...     

Does online interaction between firms and investors reduce stock price crash risk?

This paper examines how online interaction between firm management and investors impacts stock price crash risk. Based on the previous literature, we postulate that online interaction constrains crash risk via two channels, i.e., deterring bad news hoarding activities of managers and decreasing differences of opinion among investors. Relying on the launch of Hudongyi (the first official investor relations management platform in the world) for identification, we demonstrate that online firm-investor interaction significantly reduces future stock price crash risk and that these two channels can both explain this effect. Overall, our findings highlight the important role of online interaction in risk management.     

The impact of CSR performance and CSR disclosure readability on investors’ earnings estimates

We investigate how the valence of corporate social responsibility (CSR) performance and the readability of CSR disclosure impact investors’ earnings estimates. Ninety-seven part-time MBA students participate in an experiment, in which we manipulate the valence of CSR performance (positive versus neutral) and the readability of CSR reports (high versus low), while holding financial information constant. Our findings reveal that investors make more positive earnings estimates when CSR performance is positive. The readability level of CSR reports also influences investors’ decision-making process. Moreover, by using an eye-tracking device, we are able to observe investors’ different reading behaviours upon the different levels of readability.     

Does earnings acceleration convey information?

Valuation theory, investment managers, financial analysts, and textbooks advocating horizontal financial statement analysis suggest that the change in earnings growth (earnings acceleration) conveys value relevant information. We test this assertion using a large sample of U.S. firms. Results from cross-sectional short-window (around earnings announcements) and long-window (annual) returns-earnings regressions reveal a strong association between contemporaneous returns and earnings acceleration after controlling for earnings levels and changes. Moreover, earnings acceleration is useful in predicting future earnings, and financial analysts appear to use the information in earnings acceleration in addition to earnings levels and changes in revising their forecasts. Furthermore, earnings acceleration conveys information incremental to that provided by changes in analysts’ forecasts of long-term earnings growth. This study extends the empirical returns-earnings model that includes only earnings levels and changes and shows that more useful information can be extracted from reported earnings numbers than has been previously documented.     

Does managerial reluctance of dividend cuts signal future earnings?

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - In this study, we develop alternative dividend stickiness measures as a proxy for managerial reluctance to cut dividends and investigate the...