Terrorism and its impact on the cost of debt

We extend the literature on the costs of terrorism by examining its long-term impact on financial markets, an underdeveloped strand of research within the terrorism construct. Specifically, we look at its effect on the sovereign risk of 102 countries (a much broader sample than examined before), which forms the basis of the cost of debt in those countries, postulating that it results in a lower credit rating and that this impact is more pronounced in developing as opposed to developed markets. In operationalizing the risk of terrorism, we utilize the Institute for Economics and Peace's Global Terrorism Index, the most comprehensive index constructed to date which incorporates both the economic and social dimensions of terrorism and is based on the Global Terrorism Database covering 104,000 documented incidents. The results of the study support the hypothesis that terrorism results in a higher cost of debt for sovereigns and by extension, firms in impacted countries. In fact, a two-point increase in terrorism on the utilized 10-point scale on average results in a half notch reduction in a sovereign's credit rating, roughly equivalent to a change in outlook. Furthermore, this impact is more pronounced in developing markets where we find that a comparable two-point increase in terrorism on average results in an entire notch downgrade in the sovereign credit rating, e.g., from BB to BB-. Finally, we find that our model demonstrates predictive power on an out-of-sample basis and as such, could be useful for investors seeking to construct more efficient diversified asset portfolios.     

The impact of replacement cost disclosure on security prices: New Evidence

A number of studies have tested for information content in the ASR 190 disclosure by comparing the conditional and unconditional distribution of abnormal security returns around the time of disclosure. Since no differences were observed, it was concluded that ASR 190 had no information content. The study reported below performs a similar test by estimating the regression function of the conditional distribution of abnormal returns. This test procedure controls for the information content in contemporaneous historical cost disclosure and uses a conditioning variable not considered in earlier tests. It finds statistically significant stock price effects. However, because most of the effects appear to precede the official announcement date by several months, it is unclear whether stock prices were responding to the leakage of the information content of ASR 190 prior to disclosure, to private production of information contained in ASR 190 or to a variable omitted from the study which happens to be correlated with replacement costs.     

The impact of implied facilities cost of money subsidies on capital expenditures and the cost of debt in the defense industry

We examine the public policy effects of a cash flow subsidy unique to the government contracting industry, on defense contractors’ capital expenditures and cost of debt over a relatively long time-period, 1978–2009. Because the Department of Defense found evidence of a shrinking defense industrial base in the early 1970s, it wanted to encourage capital spending by defense firms. The result was a cost accounting standard that reimbursed contractors for an imputed facilities capital cost of money (FCCOM) that has remained in effect, virtually unchanged, for almost 30 years, despite structural changes in the defense industry. Our results, using a sample of 628 defense firms, suggest that the standard met its intended objective of increased capital spending within 10 years of its promulgation. However, we also find that the FCCOM subsidy may have contributed to a decreased cost of debt within the defense sector over the long-term. Finally, further analyses indicate that the long-term persistence of this subsidy may have encouraged defense contractors to overinvest in capital goods. Our findings suggest that public policy makers should consider both direct and indirect effects of regulation embedded in accounting standards.     

Credit ratings and disclosure channels

We study the relation between analysts’ ratings of firms’ credit worthiness and ratings of the quality of firms’ (1) annual report disclosures, (2) quarterly and other disclosures, and (3) manager-analyst communications. We find that credit ratings are better for firms with higher rated annual report disclosures. We also find that marked increases in analyst ratings of annual report quality are accompanied by improvements in credit ratings. We find no relation between credit ratings and analysts’ ratings of either quarterly report disclosures or management-analyst communications. Overall, the results suggest that a commitment to better annual report disclosure is related to a lower cost of credit capital.     

A re-examination of the impact of credit ratings and economic factors on state bond yields

In this article we re-examine the impact of credit ratings and economic factors on state bond yields using a two-step model. In the first step, we adopt an ordered probit technique to obtain consistent estimates of state bond default risk. In the second step, we estimate state bond risk premiums using a regression analysis with a categorized risk variable obtained from the first step. Similar to Terza (1987) and Hsiao (1983), the model involves a categorized ordinal explanatory (rating) variable. However, our two-step model deals with a case where category thresholds are unknown and dependent on economic factors. The model provides consistent estimates for the effects of ratings and economic factors on state bond yields. Contrary to previous findings, we find that state bond yields are mainly affected by fundamental economic variables.     

Coupon and tax effects on new and seasoned bond yields and the measurement of the cost of debt capital

A model of the tax structure of interest rates is developed and simple approximate expressions relating yield to coupon are derived. The effect on these simple expressions of alternative assumptions about holding period length, expectations of future interest rates, and other factors, is evaluated. It is shown that with recent U.S. yield averages the new-seasoned yield spread varies with the new-seasoned coupon spread as the theory prescribes. It is concluded that new issue yield averages should provide a more reliable measure of the cost of debt capital than is provided by seasoned yield averages.     

Religiosity and the cost of debt

In a cross-country setting, we document that stronger religiosity is associated with lower loan interest spread. In addition, we show that this negative association is more pronounced in countries with weaker creditor rights, suggesting that religious values play a more significant role in constraining opportunistic behavior in a weaker legal environment. Our analysis reveals that stronger religiosity is also related to other favorable terms in loan contracting, such as larger facility amount, use of accounting-based performance pricing, and lower upfront fee. Corroborating our cross-country findings, we also show that in the U.S. setting, firms in regions with stronger religiosity enjoy lower loan interest spread. Our study contributes to understanding the important role religiosity plays in debt financing.     

Credit agency regulation and the impact of credit ratings in the international bond market

The use of credit ratings in financial and other legal documents — both in the USA and Europe —, has led to a situation in which the major rating agencies have become (largely unwilling) participants in the legislative process. This situation has become partly formalized in the US (and is being repeated elsewhere in the European Union, Eastern Europe and Latin America) through the creation of officially ‘recognized’ agencies whose ratings now carry the imprimatur of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the debate on the necessity for formal legal status to be sustained in the market for bond credit ratings. In this context, the criteria for a credible rating agency are examined and evidence is provided on one element of the criteria which is under-researched: namely, the impact of the ratings in the market place. The influence of rating agencies in international capital markets is assessed through an analysis of the impact of ratings on the yields of bonds, represented by a comprehensive sample of actively traded debt. The sample contains analysis of ratings introductions on both new and seasoned debt and also examines the impact of ratings revisions. It is concluded that official recognition has no market-based role and it is argued that ratings are used by regulators because of the success of the major agencies in performing their market function.     

Competition and the cost of debt

This paper empirically shows that the cost of bank debt is systematically higher for firms that operate in competitive product markets. Using various proxies for product market competition, and reductions of import tariff rates to capture exogenous changes to a firm's competitive environment, I find that competition has a significantly positive effect on the cost of bank debt. Moreover, the analysis reveals that the effect of competition is greater in industries in which small firms face financially strong rivals, in industries with intense strategic interactions between firms, and in illiquid industries. Overall, these findings suggest that banks price financial contracts by taking into account the risk that arises from product market competition.     

The effect of CEO power on bond ratings and yields

We argue that executives can affect firm outcomes only if they have influence over crucial decisions. This study explores the impact of CEO power or CEO dominance on bond ratings and yield spreads. We find that credit ratings are lower and yield spreads higher for firms whose CEOs have more decision-making power. To further investigate why bondholders are concerned about CEO power, we show that powerful CEOs tend to maintain an opaque information environment. Bondholders demand higher yields because it is difficult for them to monitor managers in firms with powerful CEOs. Taken together, the results suggest that bondholders perceive CEO power as a critical determinant of the cost of bond financing.     

Sovereign debt ratings and stock liquidity around the World

This paper studies the impact of sovereign debt rating changes on liquidity for stocks from 40 countries for the period 1990–2009. We find that sovereign rating changes significantly affect stock liquidity. The impact is stronger for downgrades than for upgrades, and is nonlinear in event size. The loss of investment grade has a particularly strong negative impact on stock liquidity. We also find that some stock characteristics and country legal and macroeconomic environment are important in explaining the differences in the impact of sovereign credit rating changes on stock liquidity across countries.     

Executive compensation and the cost of debt

This study examines how different components of executive compensation affect the cost of debt. We find that debt-like and equity-like pay components have differing effects: an increase in defined benefit pensions is associated with lower bond yield spread, while higher share holdings lead to higher spreads. In addition, we find that stock options have a mixed impact on the cost of debt whereas cash bonus has no significant impact. Overall, our results indicate that corporate bondholders are fully aware of both risk-taking and risk-avoiding incentives created by various executive pay components.     

Social disclosure, financial disclosure and the cost of equity capital

We test the relation between financial and social disclosure and the cost of equity capital for a sample of Canadian firms with year-ends in 1990, 1991 and 1992. We find that, consistent with prior research, the quantity and quality of financial disclosure is negatively related to the cost of equity capital for firms with low analyst following. Contrary to expectations, there is a significant positive relation between social disclosures and the cost of equity capital. This positive relationship is mitigated among firms with better financial performance. We consider some biases in social disclosures that may explain this result. We also note that social disclosures may benefit the firm through its effect on organizational stakeholders other than equity investors.     

Income smoothing and the cost of debt

The literature on income smoothing focuses on the effect of earnings smoothing on the equity market.This paper investigates the effect of income smoothing on th...     

The impact of meeting or beating analysts' operating cash flow forecasts on a firm's cost of debt

Extant literature provides conflicting results with respect to the usefulness and accuracy of analysts' operating cash flow forecasts. Our study empirically examines the importance and influence of meeting or beating analysts' operating cash flow forecasts on a firm's cost of debt. Results indicate that firms meeting/beating analysts' cash flow forecasts have higher initial bond ratings as well as lower initial bond yields. Additionally, based upon an analysis of rating changes, firms meeting or beating cash flow forecasts have a higher probability of receiving a debt rating upgrade and a lower probability of a ratings downgrade compared to firms missing cash flow forecasts. A direct comparison of the importance of meeting/beating cash flow versus earnings benchmarks indicates that debt market participants appear to incrementally value both types of forecasts, and contrary to selected equity market findings, neither forecast subsumes the other for debt market participants.     

The market for corporate control and the cost of debt

How do bondholders view the existence of an open market for corporate control? Between 1985 and 1991, 30 states in the U.S. enacted business combination (BC) laws, raising the cost of corporate takeovers. Relying on these exogenous events, we estimate the influence of the market for corporate control on the cost of debt. We identify different channels through which an open market for corporate control can benefit or harm bondholders: a reduction in managerial slack or the “quiet life,” resulting in higher profitability and firm value; a coinsurance effect, in which firms become less risky after being acquired; and an increasing leverage effect, in which bondholder wealth is expropriated through leverage-increasing takeovers. Consistent with the first two mechanisms, we find that the cost of debt rose after the passage of the BC laws; moreover, it rose sharply for firms in non-competitive industries, and for firms rated speculative-grade. In contrast, there is virtually no effect for firms in competitive industries, or firms rated investment-grade.     

Corporate political transparency and the cost of debt

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - We examine whether the predictive power of initial yield spreads of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) vary with the financial cycle. Using a...     

Analyst forecast characteristics and the cost of debt

We examine the relation between analyst forecast characteristics and the cost of debt financing. Consistent with the view that the information contained in analysts’ forecasts is economically significant across asset classes, we find that analyst activity reduces bond yield spreads. We also find that the economic impact of analysts is most pronounced when uncertainty about firm value is highest (that is, when firms have high idiosyncratic risk). Our findings are robust to controls for private information in equity prices and level of corporate disclosures. Overall, the results indicate that the information contained in analyst forecasts is valued outside the equity market and provide an additional channel in which better information is associated with a lower cost of capital.     

The impact of disclosure reform on the NZX's financial information environment

This study investigates the impact of changes to the New Zealand Exchange's listing rules and legislative amendments to the Securities Markets Act 1988 enacted in December 2002. The reforms provided statutory backing for a more stringent disclosure regime. We find evidence that non-dual listed firms, not subject to any prior enhanced disclosure regime, released more earnings-related information to the market in the post-reform period and announced their half-year and fiscal year-end results in a more timely manner. Our results also show that analysts' earnings forecast errors did not decline but analysts' forecasts showed less dispersion in the post-reform period. In respect of informational efficiency, we find evidence of a smaller abnormal return around the half-year and fiscal year earnings announcement date in the post-reform period. Our results suggest that the reforms improved the flow of information to investors, consistent with their intent.