城市家庭住房自有率的省际差异及其影响因素--基于“六普”数据的研究

中国城市家庭住房自有率的整体上升趋势日渐受到关注,但少有对住房自有率地区差异的研究。在使用“六普”数据,建立多元线性回归方程模型,对中国城市家庭住房自有率的省际差异及其影响因素研究中发现,城市家庭住房自有率在不同省份之间呈现较大差异;房价收入比、流动人口比例和失业率对其均有显著负向影响;65岁及以上人口比例、已婚人口比例、家庭规模对其则均有显著正向影响。最后讨论了以上研究发现的政策涵义。     

Racial gaps in the transition to first-time homeownership: The role of residential location

Evidence suggests that African Americans wait longer to transition into first-time homeownership than white households with similar endowments. This paper relies on data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) to examine the contribution of residential location toward the black–white gap in first-time homeownership transitions. For a sample of young renters who first left their parents' home during the period 1978 through 1987, I estimate continuous time duration models that explain racial gaps in rental tenure durations prior to first-time homeownership as a function of individual, household, and location-specific covariates. I find that while several residential location characteristics, particularly those associated with the supply of affordable owner-occupied housing, impinge upon racial gaps in first-time homeownership transitions, most of the racial gap in homeownership transitions would be eliminated if blacks and whites had similar individual and household characteristics.     

住房自有率与城市蔓延：理论与实证

通过构建一个包含住房租赁市场的封闭、单中心城市一般均衡模型，模型化了住房自有率与城市蔓延之间的关系，理论模型结论显示：首先，与自有住房者相比，租房者倾向于居住在离市中心较近的地方；其次，住房自有率的提高会使城市空间面积扩大，加剧城市蔓延。进一步，利用地级市数据分别对理论命题结论进行了检验，在比较充分地控制内生性问题后，实证结果证实了高住房自有率会加剧城市蔓延。因此，长期以来我国不断升高的住房自有率也是加剧我国城市蔓延的重要原因。     

Skill-biased technological change and homeownership

In the United States, the residential housing market went through important changes over the period from the 1970s to the mid-1990s. Although the aggregate homeownership rate was relatively stable during that period, the distribution of homeownership rates by age changed in remarkable ways. While younger households saw substantial declines in homeownership rates, the opposite happened for older households. In this paper, we argue that the skill-biased technological change (SBTC) that began during the 1970s has been an important factor behind the observed change in the distribution of homeownership rates by age. We build a life cycle model in which skills are accumulated on-the-job through experience: learning by doing. Early in life, households have lower levels of skills and therefore lower earnings. SBTC increases the returns to skill, widening the wage gap between young and old ages. As a consequence, it takes more time for young households to become homeowners given frictions in financial markets (e.g. downpayment requirements) and housing markets (e.g. large and indivisible houses), in line with consumption smoothing behavior. On the other hand, older households that could not afford a house before may now become homeowners, given higher returns to skill. Our analysis confirms this conjecture, namely, that SBTC shifts the distribution of homeownership from the young to the old.     

Are There Tax Arbitrage Opportunities in Private Rental Housing Markets?

Tax arbitrage opportunities in rental housing markets arise when high bracket taxpayers exploit the tax shelter and conversion features of the tax treatment of rental housing and as a consequence offer low bracket taxpayers rental housing at a cost lower than if they purchased the same quantity of housing for owner occupation. A microdata set has been employed to estimate the size of these tax arbitrage opportunities with respect to 1907 properties owned by Australian landlords. The measure of tax arbitrage opportunities is the breakeven tax rate at which the maximum rental rate a potential occupant is prepared to pay before turning to purchased housing is equal to the landlord's reservation rental rate. Potential occupants with marginal tax rates below the breakeven tax rate find that renting has a relative cost advantage over home purchase. When agency costs (the costs incurred in managing landlord-tenant relationships) are included in the tax arbitrage model, our estimates of the breakeven tax rate indicate that home purchase has a relative cost advantage over renting for most potential occupants. Renting is only financially attractive to low tax bracket individuals. This finding is consistent with Australian tenure patterns. However, there are more puzzling results. A majority of landlords belong to tax brackets below the top bracket, landlords in the lowest tax brackets typically make below normal profits, and reservation rental rates at the bottom of the rental housing market are relatively high. Down payment requirements, lock-in effects, and rent clientele groups are put forward as possible explanations for these findings.     

Homeownership in the immigrant population

This paper analyzes the determinants of homeownership in immigrant households over the 1980–2000 period. The study finds that immigrants have lower homeownership rates than natives and that the homeownership gap widened significantly during that period. The differential location decisions of immigrant and native households, as well as the changing national origin mix of the immigrant population, helps explain much of the homeownership gap. The evidence also indicates that the growth of ethnic enclaves in major American cities could become an important factor in increasing immigrant demand for owner-occupied housing in many metropolitan areas.     

Household wealth accumulation and portfolio choices in Korea

This paper constructs a quantitative lifecycle model with uninsurable labor income and housing return risk to investigate how Korean households make saving and portfolio decisions. The model not only incorporates the special roles housing plays in the portfolio of households: collateral, a source of service flows, as well as a source of potential capital gains or losses, but also adds to existing models of wealth accumulation some unique institutional features present in Korea, namely the rental system (‘chonsae’) and the lack of a mortgage system. When the model is calibrated to match the Korean economy, several key features of the data are better able to be reproduced. The paper also analyzes the role of institutional features by comparing several alternative housing market arrangements to assess their impact on wealth accumulation, portfolio choices, and homeownership. A 10 percentage points reduction in down-payment requirement is associated with approximately 1 percentage point increase in the aggregate homeownership ratio in Korea. Lower down-payment also increases the fraction of aggregate wealth held in housing assets but lowers aggregate net worth with mixed demographic implications.     

Homeownership, wealth accumulation and income status

This paper examines the extent to which homeownership had an independent effect on the ability of low- and moderate-income (LMI) households to accumulate wealth during the mid-to-late 1990s. Using household data from the PSID, we generate a panel of households whose homeownership we observe over a 15 year period and whose wealth accumulation we observe at three points in time: 1994, 1999 and 2001. We investigate the extent to which homeownership has an independent impact on the wealth accumulation of LMI households, controlling for a host of other variables and unobserved heterogeneity. Accounting for the skewed nature of the wealth distribution, we find that each additional year of homeownership increases total net wealth by $13.7 K on average for the full sample. Interacting income status with years of homeownership indicates that the impact of homeownership varies by income status, with each additional year of homeownership being associated with $15 K more in wealth holdings for high-income households and roughly $6 to 10 K more in wealth holdings for LMI households.     

The impacts of affordable lending efforts on homeownership rates

In this study, we develop and test a methodology to assess the impact of affordable lending efforts on homeownership rates. More narrowly, we examine the impact of using flexible underwriting guidelines, primarily changes in the down payment and housing burden requirements, on the affordability and homeownership propensities of targeted populations and geographic areas. The impacts of changing these underwriting guidelines are compared with those resulting from lower borrowing costs (interest rates). A variation of the methodology first proposed by Wachter et al. (1996) is used in the analysis. We use the 1995 American Housing Survey (AHS) national core in the analysis. The findings indicate that affordable lending efforts are likely to increase homeownership opportunities for underserved populations, but that impacts may not be felt equally by all groups. Under most affordable products, the impacts on all households, recent movers and central city households are smaller than for other households. The recently introduced affordable products which permit the 3% down payment to come from non-borrower sources, e.g., Freddie Mac’s Alt 97, has the largest impact on the homeownership propensities of all underserved groups, including a 27.1% increase in the relative probability of homeownership for young households, a 21.0% increase for blacks, and a 15.0% increase for central city residents. Consistently, changes in underwriting guidelines are found to have greater impacts than changes in the costs of borrowing for all groups.     

TAXATION AND THE USER COST OF CAPITAL

This paper provides a review of the concept of user cost and its determinants. Particular attention is given to the influence of taxation. The concept of user cost relates to the rental, the rate of return to capital, that arises in a profit maximizing situation in which further investment in capital produces no additional profit. This paper sets out in some detail the range of assumptions involved in obtaining alternative expressions for the user cost. The user cost refers to a before-tax capital rental, the rate of return that ensures that the (after-tax) cost of capital is equal to the post-tax returns over its life. Hence, associated with the user cost measure is an effective marginal tax rate. This can differ substantially from the statutory marginal rate applicable to the investor. A related effective average tax rate is also defined.     

The determinants of SMSA homeownership rates

Aggregate SMSA data are used to explain homeownership rates. It finds that income, house values, the size and age distribution of households, and the rate of population change in an SMSA were significant determinants of the tenure decision on an SMSA-wide basis in 1970. Over 56% of the variance in SMSA homeownership rates could be explained by these variables.     

The homeownership decision of female-headed households

The homeownership rate of female heads of household is substantially lower than the rate for married women. A number of factors could account for this observation including differences in income and its sources, wealth, demographic characteristics, and the relative price of homeownership. We identify the impact of these factors and find income and the cost of owning relative to renting to be most important. Analysis of changes in female ownership rates over a 10-year period reveals the impact of the Equal Credit Opportunity Act which eased access to the mortgage market. We find evidence that ECOA raised the probability of homeownership for all women. However, much of the difference in ownership rates between married and unmarried women remains unexplained, especially for high income households.     

Inflation, tax advantages to homeownership and the locational choices of households

The U.S. tax system encourages investment in owner-occupied housing by allowing consumers to deduct mortgage interest and to exclude net imputed rental income from taxable income. The primary purpose of this paper is to analyze how this tax treatment affects the housing and locational choices of urban households. It is shown that the effect of the tax treatment on these choices is sensitive to the preferences of consumers and the rate of anticipated inflation. To illustrate the likely size and direction of these effects, an example is constructed based upon econometric estimates of the parameters of the model.     

Alternative measures of homeownership gaps across segregated neighborhoods

The dramatic rise in the U.S. homeownership rate from 64% in 1996 to almost 70% in 2005 has prompted increased attention to the relation between homeownership and demographic characteristics of households. The recent rise and sharp decline of subprime lending will likely spur further interest in homeownership gaps. Statistical analysis of these differences or “gaps” in homeownership between white and minority households has evolved into a highly stylized comparison of differences in homeownership at the mean or the conditional mean. This study implements a quantile decomposition technique that identifies the unexplained portion of the gap not only at the mean, but at every percentile of the homeownership distribution. Results suggest that differences in homeownership gaps at the mean reflect a combination of small differences at the upper end and much larger gaps at the lowest end of the distribution of homeowners. This study also adds credit history to the factors that are used to explain homeownership gaps.     

A silver lining to white flight? White suburbanization and African–American homeownership, 1940–1980

Between 1940 and 1980, the homeownership rate among metropolitan African–American households increased by 27 percentage points. Nearly three-quarters of this increase occurred in central cities. We show that rising black homeownership in central cities was facilitated by the movement of white households to the suburban ring, which reduced the price of urban housing units conducive to owner-occupancy. Our OLS and IV estimates imply that 26 percent of the national increase in black homeownership over the period is explained by white suburbanization.     

Temporal and ethnic decompositions of homeownership rates: Synthetic cohorts across five censuses

We perform probit-based Oaxaca–Fairlie decompositions of the change in ownership rates for four ethnic groups and three age groups over five censuses, and then construct second-order decompositions of the white/non-white differentials. There is substantial heterogeneity in how Hispanic, Asian and Black households of various age cohorts converge to and diverge from their white counterparts with respect to homeownership.     

DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRICES WITH DETAILED AGRICULTURAL LAND RENT DATA AND IMPROVED VALUE-ADDED COMPONENTS FOR THE USA

We describe a method for creating social accounting matrices (SAMs) with detailed agricultural land rent data for any arbitrary subset of the 48 contiguous states in the USA. Data on land use and land rents from various public sources is merged with national accounts data. The method reorganizes the rental income of persons concept present in national accounts to payments to conventional primary factors of production. This method also reallocates portions of the indirect business tax account to the appropriate sales and import tax accounts. SAMs created using this method should be useful inputs into input–output or computable general equilibrium models explicitly representing a heterogeneous land market and analyzing the economic effects of agricultural, bioenergy, water and climate policies on land-use change, land rents, agricultural commodity markets, trade and households’ welfare. The method's implementation is freely available, enabling others to rapidly create SAMs with their own desired region and sector aggregations.     

Renting vs buying a home: A matter of wealth accumulation or of geographic stability?

I study the housing tenure decision in the context of a spatial life cycle model with uninsurable individual income risk, plausibly calibrated to match key features of the US housing market. I find that the relatively low ownership rate of young households is mainly explained by their high geographic mobility. Downpayment constraints have minor quantitative implications on ownership rates, except for old households. I also find that idiosyncratic earnings uncertainty has a significant impact on homeownership rates. Based on these results, I argue that the long term increase in ownership rates observed over the period 1993–2009 was not necessarily due to mortgage market innovations and the relaxation of downpayment requirements, as is often argued. Instead, it was simply an implication of US demographic evolution, most notably the decline in interstate migration and, less importantly, population ageing. The model predicts that an increase in the income risk (i.e. higher income inequality) has a positive impact on geographical mobility of young households, which means that young homeowners are less affected by the labour market inefficiency associated with homeownership.     

增值税“扩围”改革对行业税负变动的预期影响

增值税“扩围”改革将影响到各行业的流转税负担.利用投入产出表数据,测算增值税“扩围”改革对目前属于增值税征收范围的行业(即“增值税行业”)和目前属于营业税征收范围行业(即“营业税行业”)流转税税负变动的影响,结果显示:增值税行业的总体税负将有小幅下降,服务中间投入比率是影响各增值税行业减税效应大小的关键因素;各营业税行业的税负变化情况差异较大,商务服务业等大多数行业的税负将减轻,但租赁业等部分行业的税负可能会加重,税改后的增值税税率水平选择与中间投入比率是影响各营业税行业税负变动的主要因素.为了促进行业间税负公平,减少增值税“扩围”改革对行业发展的不利影响,有必要适当降低租赁业、交通运输业的税率水平.     

Does credit quality matter for homeownership?

While micro-level household data on wealth and income are available for assessing income- and wealth-based constraints to homeownership, lack of data on household credit ratings has precluded evaluation of credit quality as a potential barrier to homeownership. The study, for the first time, measures the relative importance of credit-, income-, and wealth-based constraints and estimates how the effects of these constraints have evolved over the past decade. The results show that financing constraints continue to have an important impact on potential homebuyers. The wealth constraint has the largest impact, although its importance declined substantially during the 1990s. Credit quality based constraints have become more important barriers to homeownership during the 1990s, mostly reflecting an increase in the number of households with impaired credit quality. Thus, both wealth and credit constraints persist as barriers to the attainment of homeownership.